good day. i'm chris jansing live in beautiful cleveland, ohio. this state home to one of the most critical and close races in the country. you can't go anywhere without finding someone with a strong political opinion. that doesn't mean their minds are made up. how many of you have decided on every single person you're going to vote for? no. i talked to a panel of cleveland area voters. all of them still waiting to cast their ballots about why they are still on the fence and whether the brutal attack might play a role in pushing them off. as we speak, the candidates are in five senate races separated by three points or less, including tim ryan and j.d. vance. but are voters happy with the choices that are out there? we'll talk about that and why millions of voters are identifying as independents and living their tickets potentially, a phenomenon not just in ohio but critical races around the country that could make a difference. finally, the message voters want to send to candidates and lawmakers nationwide. they are blunt, frustrated, even scared. all of that coming up. we start with that electorate on edge, shaken by the vicious attack on speaker pelosi's husband paul. anxious and angry about the threats and the violence woven into the fabric of our national politics. all of this at a time when control of the government is literally a coin flip. right now paul pelosi remains in the icu, recovering from surgery for a fractured skull. but we also learned just about an hour ago he is awake and appears to have all of his cognitive functioning intact. he also apparently remembers the entire incident and shared those recollections with the fbi and other investigators. his alleged attacker, david depape, who we now know brought zip ties could be charged with attempted murder and other felonies. the san francisco d.a. said he made it to the second floor of pelosi's home. yesterday here in cleveland, i sat down with a group of voters, one republican, one democrat, two independents who are deeply unsettled and unhappy about the state of politics. >> what did you all think when you heard a man had broken into nancy pelosi's house and beat her 82-year-old husband about the head with a hammer? >> i'm still trying to process that. who was this person? who are we as americans to take politics to something so violent, so vicious, something so unheard of. >> part of it is politics. it sometimes brings out the worst in people. both sides feed into this on the extreme ends and try to rile people up. >> reporter: what made it okay then to act on that anger? >> i think it's the true definition of debate. a lot of people might think it's arguing and fighting and verbally throwing rocks at each other until someone wins or concedes. when you go to someone's house with a hammer to hurt them, that's beyond anger. it's hatred. >> it's more a way of tribalism than civilization when we divide people -- even if it's the political spectrum race, gender, whatever it is. when you use that division as a tool to do anything as separation, it's never a good thing. >> if i ever thought to run or really get into politics or if caitlyn thought about going into politics, does she have to worry about her life as a woman? >> or my family's life. >> or her family's life. again, when have we made politics synonymous to violence, fear, anger, all of that. we can't continue to live that way? we may not be the country with bombs dropping but it is a huge bomb when you hear someone broke into someone's house to cause harm. >> ben collins covers disinformation on the dark web. basel schmeichel of the new york state democratic party. reid galen with the lincoln project and worked under dhs under president george h. bush. here with me on sight, justin bugler, political of science at case western reserve university professor. it's good of you to come out, justin. you can hear in their tone and what they said how disgusted they are with politics, and particularly disgusted with what happened to paul pelosi. we don't know whether and how that might manifest in the voting booth. how do you hear what people say in terms of their frustration and how it might end up coloring who they'll vote for? >> so, the frustration and the fear is understandable. it's a pretty disturbing event. it's unlikely many votes are going to be affected. unfortunately one of the things that's happened is the way people view these kinds of events gets filtered through party identification. nearly everything gets filtered through party identification. so about 80% to 90% are part saps. they will vote their party at the end of the election cycle. and that means that while there is a lot of fear and frustration, there isn't a lot of room for this kind of event to swing very many votes >> nevertheless, i guess i would say, reid, that you don't hear people blaming a party. even if it's 80% to 90% that vote party, that leaves a lot of room in places like here in ohio where it's just really, really tight. look, your group was founded because people were frustrated with donald trump, frustrated with the republican party. they felt compelled to try to fix it. how does that look today? >> well, look, i think that, you know, in the run-up to january 6th and the aftermath of it, it's only gotten worse on the republican side of the aisle. i think that the professor is correct in that we should not underestimate extremism at the fringes of both parties. i think the fringe of the republican party is no longer the fringe. the fact that you saw so many republican candidates, politicians and other leaders either saying nothing about the attack on mr. pelosi or making light of it or in fact, thinking it was funny in some way i think tells you about where the guard rails are missing in the gop. they are not likely to come back. frankly, they see no sanction. no one other than the leader of the oath keepers and individuals who storm the capitol january 6th have been held to account legally, and none have been held to account politically. so i think as long as we see one party willing to employ these implicitly and explicitly. we saw the proud boys make the stage this past weekend. and fear is what they want. uncertainty is what they want. because fear means is it worth my time, is it worth the effort, worth me going to a dropbox. that's the whole ball game. i don't need all of these people not to vote. i just need enough of them not to vote. >> and obviously, basel, democrats argue this proves they need to be elected. they need to protect democracy, civil debate. republicans are making their own arguments regarding this attack. take a listen. >> when you let dangerous criminals out on the streets, you know, with bail and not put them in prison, you're just asking for this sort of incident to happen. and i think it created the environment where this happens. >> so it's a convergence of what has been political violence. we've witnessed the rise of just crime on our streets and subways. >> we all need to recognize violence is up across the board. the other thing to remember is if this weren't paul pelosi, this criminal would probably be out on the street tomorrow. >> do you think, base el, this ends up being a debate for voters? if you see this as protecting democracy, you vote democrats. as a crime issue, you vote republican? >> well, i think the republicans are doing what they often always do, which is conflate a lot of these issues, crime, race, and urbanization. and the fact that they are using the attack on paul pelosi and are completing it with crime in urban issues is quite despicable. and talking about bail reform in the same breath. it's quite despicable. and to your other questions what were democrats elected to do? i think joe biden was elected to bring some normalcy back to our governance. and i think he has done that to an extent. the question now who is going to bring normalcy back to the rest of society? that's the open question. i was born in 1972. so much growing up, learning, understanding is on the ballot next week. we've seen a reduction in reproductive rights. affirmative action is being argued as we speak. when all the things start going away, the aggregation of rights and attorneys start occurring much more swiftly than they ever have been. democrats are arguing this is where we can't afford the pendulum to keep swinging in the same direction. we have to bring it back. >> you and i were on the air together when the press conference happened. you very quickly went to the suspect's website. now it has been three days to digest what happened with paul pelosi. what are you seeing online now? >> yeah. if you go on the far right internet, donald trump jr. pages you will see a conspiracy theory that is completely wrong. it's completely backwards. the idea is that paul pelosi was in sort of a lover's quarrel with this man and it's based on a series of lies told over the internet. in the vacuum of information after friday, this is when reporters were trying to figure out who this guy was and what he did, the vacuum was filled with lies. and that took over the narrative on the far right. now it's center right. the donald trump internet. they are pushing this idea that he was in a sex ring. it if you were talked to someone at the supermarket today, i would say it would be 50/50 if you would get that it was a break-in, that someone was trying to kill him because he was the husband of the speaker of the house and because he was into qanon, and far right cabal stuff or this wild sex cult thing. they have turned him into a hate object even though he was bludgeoned with a hammer three days away. >> justin, which leads me to your students. we hear it will be the youth vote this time around. they know and use social media a lot more than you and i i'm going to guess. do they look at what happened with paul pelosi? does it motivate them? does it make them throw their arms up and say the system is broken, i don't need to get involved? what do you hear from people who are in their late teens, early 20s? >> we hear this is the election of the youth vote. it will not be this year. as far as students reaction to politics, i don't know that there is because you will have students disconnected from politics. for the most part, 18 to 20-year-olds are disconnected from politics. it will be the usual political environment of 2022 and the last couple of years will have any lasting change. that will only be known over time. >> ben collins, thank you. basel, justin, reid, you are all sticking around. >> it wasn't long ago that the abortion fact issue was a factor in the midterms. right now the justices are hearing oral arguments in cases involving affirmative actions, race-conscious admissions policies at harvard and unc. but they focus on the same central question. what constitutes racial discrimination. i want to turn back to justin here. affirmative action has been the law of the land since the '70s. but how important is this for universities like yours? >> so it will depend on the university. the more expectative university, the more dependent they are on affirmative action policies for a variety of reasons. harvard, in particular, has become an interesting case because they very consciously decided they wanted to change admissions policies because they didn't want it to be too asian was essentially their decision. they raised the admission standards for asians and asian americans. a lot of universities, particularly of the more selective variety, have adopted different standards for different races. and the supreme court is dividing the constitution ality of that. this is probably the end of affirmative action. but how important it is for a university depends on the university. >> i know you have students waiting for you and you have to run. we have more breaking news involving the supreme court. we learned moment ago that former president trump has filed an emergency application with the court asking the justices to stop the irs from giving his tax returns to the house ways and means committee. trump argues the goal suspect to investigate but to release his tax information to the public. we'll bring you more on this story as we get it. capitol police officer harry dunn who took on rioters during the insurrection and gave emotional testimony about it to the january 6th committee and the house taking the stand in the oath keepers trial. how his testimony could impact the case. we are outside the courthouse ahead. but first, independent voters could be the difference in razor-thin races, including here in ohio. the impact of fewer and fewer people now identifying with one party next. le now identifying w party next >> i think people are waking up and realizes when they went away their whole life and then they said, hey, wait, this person doesn't align with my views anymore. what's going on here. my views anymore. what's going on here down with rybelsus®. man tc: my a1c wasn't at goal, now i'm down with rybelsus®. son tc: mom's a1c is down with rybelsus®. song: a1c down with rybelsus® anncr vo: in a clinical study, once-daily rybelsus® significantly lowered a1c better than the leading branded pill. anncr vo: rybelsus® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. anncr vo: don't take rybelsus® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. anncr vo: stop rybelsus® and get medical help right away if you get a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, or an allergic reaction. anncr vo: serious side effects may include pancreatitis. gallbladder problems may occur. tell your provider about vision problems or changes. anncr vo: taking rybelsus® with a sulfonylurea or insulin increases low blood sugar risk. anncr vo: side effects like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea may lead to dehydration, which may worsen kidney problems. mom tc: need to get your a1c down? song: a1c down with rybelsus® anncr vo: ask your healthcare provider about rybelsus® today. ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. ooh, the chewy app. clumping litter. salmon paté? we have enough to splurge on catnip toys! i feel so accomplished. pet me please! great prices. happy pets. chewy. i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. contestants ready? go! only pay for what you need. jingle: liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. it's the subway series menu. 12 irresistible subs. the most epic sandwich roster ever created. ♪♪ it's subway's biggest refresh yet! doesn't your family deserve the best? eggland's best eggs. classic, cage free, and organic. more delicious, farm-fresh taste. plus, superior nutrition. which is now more important than ever. ♪♪ i love san francisco, but i'm working overtime to stay here. now is not the time to raise taxes. i'm voting no on propositions m and o, because the cost of everything is going up. san francisco collects more tax revenue than nearly any city in america. but our streets are dirty and public safety is not getting better. i'm working hard to live within my budget. the city should too. join me in voting no on m and o. now is not the time to raise taxes in san francisco. as a teacher living and working in san francisco, the cost of housing makes living and working here really difficult. proposition d is the only measure that speeds up construction of affordable new homes by removing bureaucratic roadblocks. so teachers, nurses, firefighters and workers like us can live where we work. while prop e makes it nearly impossible to build more housing join habitat for humanity in rejecting prop e, and supporting prop d to build more affordable housing for everyone. now. a significant trend could prove to be the difference in ohio and close races throughout the country. more and more people are unaffiliated instead of a party. the impact could be significant. 43% of americans say they are independents. 30% call themselves republican. only 24% identify as democrat. in terms of voter registration, the numbers are greater than republicans or democrats in at least nine states. so i spoke to our panel about how the current political and economic climate is fueling some seismic changes at the voting booth. >> how many of you think you might split the ticket when you go into the voting booth. show of hands. all of you. that didn't used to be. what has changed in your mind, because this is not your first time voting. >> it is a lot up in the air. it was simpler when there was two or three things people were talking about. >> everyone wants a solution. that's what we are looking for in the leaders. come to the table. at least bring something. we don't want the same answers because they will get the same results. >> are you waiting to hear something that resonates with you even at this late moment? >> i am. i think we are all screaming for change and fighting against tradition and what we've had. >> i don't think that politicians, lifelong politicians, i think washington is out of touch with the common person in america. >> more than before? >> oh, absolutely. i don't think they quite understand -- i don't know that they go to the grocery store and go shopping and say, holy mackerel, my bill has just increased 25%. eggs increased 50% in two weeks. >> eggs are $4. that's a problem. eggs are $4, people. and we can't seem to fix that. you know when we talk about infants, they did not have any milk. so those are the concerns i have. can one politician fix that? no. who do you vote for? i'm not sure. >> i know a lot of people in my generation and younger are breaking with the tradition that families carry political parties. a lot of people go back generations being republican or democrat. and now a lot of younger folks, like myself, are thinking i can choose. >> myself, i was a democrat for the longest time. and then i kind of -- i don't know. i had that kennedy belief, the democratic party was like the kennedy party. and i just don't see that in that party anymore. there's a lot more people in the middle now. especially the last couple of years because of how crazy it's gotten. >> if i see that a republican is -- yeah. this is going to better help me and my community, i'm going with you. not just because of the party but of who you are. >> that might make a lot of politicians nervous if you're from a democratic household as you are, tatiana, democrats have come to depend on you and your family. >> i'm an african american woman, and i haven't heard either side talk to the things i needed. normally, i would have voted by now, would have done the early vote. i'm still trying to decide. still nervous. >> people understand how important a vote is. whether they want to believe it or not, it makes us equal. the guy with a billion dollars who votes has as much worth as the person who has zero. >> you have covered ohio for a long time. and plain griffith, president of cleveland city council. thank you for being here. i want to read from your reporting, because it speaks exactly to this, henry. democrats see an opportunity in ticket splitting that may help tim ryan in his senate bid and how they are backing that theory with money. tell me more. >> so there is a group called welcome pac, a moderate senn terrorist group trying to elect more democrats this cycle. they are looking for opportunities where they can find republican voters. they see ohio as a prime opportunity for this. governor mike dewine is pulling 20 points ahead of his challenger. and tim ryan, within the margin of error in the senate race against jd vance. ryan tailored his message to independents, moderates. he comes off as a more conservative democrat. because of that message, because of who it is targeted toward, this pac sees a unique opportunity to spend a little money. about six figures. it is more than most national groups are pouring in at this point. they feel if they can convince a dewine voter that it's okay to cross over and vote for ryan instead of jd vance. or vance isn't maybe with them in all of these issues. he didn't support donald trump. that they may be able to pick off in rural or appalachia. >> the votes from down south are in cancer ebly important. so is the urban vote. they have depended on a councilman for a long time here in cleveland. turnout in key urban areas is significantly down from 2018. let me read from that. sluggish mail-in returns in ohio are worrying some democrats who fear disappointing turnout in ohio's biggest cities, particularly among black voters who form a core par could sink the campaign of tim ryan and other state democrats. you live this because you live in that kind of community, right, where you are looking to get the urban voter out. you're a cleveland guy. are you worried? >> chris, let me say this. i think what we are seeing is a voter that wants to get out on election day. and the african american community election day is like a holiday. it's where we really see a lot of energy. even sunday before the election. you are going to see a surge. >> what makes you say that? the numbers don't support it. >> right now people have voter fatigue. i'm hearing there is a lot of voter fatigue. and people want to get out. then you have a lot more persuadable voters. right now we see an opportunity to get a lot of the persuadable voters. it shows me we still have an opportunity to go after the persuadable voters in areas that haven't voted traditional democratic before. >> the panel said i'm worried about the price of eggs. i'm worried about what's going on in terms oeflt political -- of the political discount. >> i'm not worried about splitting the ticket. five governors were elected as governors and then they elected u.s. senate candidates. so i think your point about vote splitting, that still works in favor for tim ryan. where it concerns me a little bit is making sure the bread and butter kitchen table issues are resonating with black women, which we know is our base in the city of cleveland. the rise in the american electorate. >> i'm going to get in trouble with each of you. one answer. what is the answer tim ryan pulls off the big upset? >> 5% that he is -- i think he can -- >> five percent? >> that he pulls it off. >> 100%. what else can i say? >> 50/50 percent, chris. >> i think that's where we are. thank you very much. appreciate it. that key senate race here in ohio, most of the voter panel still doesn't know who they will vote for. we will two to steve kornacki to show which races are getting tighter with control of the senate at stake. 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what's it feel like to you? is it clear who is moving ahead? >> man, you're putting me in a tough spot. we have to look how they styled themselves. both vance and ryan want you to think each is an extremist. ryan is trying to make people forget he is a democrat. there are some republicans, whether it has stuck with them, whether 59 times it stuck with them. vance told henry gomez that in an interview. that is something he has worked into his favor. he has political heavy hitters from his own party here to back him up. it was the governor and senator portman who are statewide very popular politicians here. the question is will he peel republicans away from vance or can someone like dewine help carry vance along or build his own momentum. ryan dominated the airwaves. it allowed him to control the narrative more. he has money coming in, more ads himself and these more moderate styled republicans backing him up. he obviously has the trump wing in his corner. the former president with him himself. two people like governor dewine and senator portman. here's part of what he said to us. >> i think we'll win here in ohio. i think we'll be fine in ohio at the end of the day. but jd needs to get out there and for people to know him. >> you have party faithful clearly in position right now. >> and i think the amount of money that's been spent on the races is astonishing. in the closing days, an appearance might make a difference. you never know. jesse kirsch in ohio. >> great to see you. >> great to see you in my hometown. across the country, democrats threatening red states and democrats challenging blue states. steve, you're blocks away from the u.s. capitol. what is standing out to you at the polls this late stage of the game? >> yeah, chris. literally an interesting back drop for me right now. but the back drop, this narrow, narrow margins democrats have. in the senate, it's 50/50. they have it because kamala harris breaks the tie. it would be a net gain of five seats for republicans to get control. this is interesting. came out from gallup. they are asking folks, do you consider these to be extremely important issues? that's what a you are seeing. at the top, this has been the story all year. the economy. is the most important issue. that's what voters are saying. you see abortion clocking in at number two, months after the supreme court, crime, rounding out the top five. what's interesting is this. when you take a look at -- take the economy. folks who say it is extremely important to them. 31 points. it's double digit. though it is not the same degree that republicans do on the economy. but crime, gun policy by a small amount and immigration. four of the top five issues that you see listed there, republicans have an advantage on. in three of them, it's a clear almost overwhelming advantage. so you look at an issue sort of a lineup like that and think, gee, that bodes well for republicans, not just getting the five in the house but control of the senate and maybe having something much bigger. democrats, republicans, who do you want to be controlling congress in here? a couple of different ways you can measure this. a couple different sources who do averages of all the polls out there. look at real clear politics. their read right now is republicans on average lead the generic ballot a tick less than three points. 2.9. if we did a straight average, what would it look like? republicans by 0.4. it seems you would expect a huge republican advantage. you look at the ballot and i see more uncertainty, chris. >> unbelievable number, 0.4. steve kornacki, as always, thank you so much. great to see you in d.c. basel, steve just break it down for us. that is exactly why control of the senate rests on a knife's edge. tell me, what are you watching for in this final full week? >> well, there are a couple of things. if you look at some of the races in north carolina, wisconsin, florida, the african american candidates on statewide ballots. i'm hoping if there is some concern among the voters, some hesitation among african american voters, especially in georgia, those candidates, which are the future of our party, will bring out a lot of those voters and really make a difference. it is upsetting that democrats are losing the argument on economy and crime. the fact that joe biden had a flurry of bills the last year and change that have addressed this, we have seen the increase in social security. like the mayor of new york that got elected on being tougher on crime. we can talk about these things. i'm sad to say they may not have the strength and frequency we should have. >> so what are you going to be looking for to see if there is a blue upset or red wave november 8th? >> well, first and foremost, i think we need to talk about this concept of the red wave that is being pushed really hard certainly by the republican party and its various front groups and outlets. it's not only whether they think we will win elections but the fact if they do lose some elections they think they should win, look back at all the polling. we were supposed to win. the whole thing is rigged. we told you it was going to happen. donald trump started as early as 2015. he has never stopped it. i think you will see this. and some of the candidates are saying it. the whole idea of a red mirage will do it too. they are voting early by mail. i think there is a lot we have to look at not only on how it will turn out but what counties in close races will do if they end up losing. i do think there is a 6% to 8% of the republican electorate who wants nothing to do with ultra maga or any of the ugliness they are seeing that will either go across the line to a josh shapiro or reverend warnock in georgia, or they will just leave the races plank altogether because they are not going to go along with a kari lake, herschel walker or doug mastriano because they are so outside the lines of what they consider decent. >> reid, basel, thank you, guys. >> high-stakes testimony in d.c. from a capitol police officer as the oath keepers trial gets under way. how what he said on the stand pushes back against a major point from the tkfrps. plus, opening statements in the high-profile case against the trump organization going on now. when we could see key witness, chief financial officers alan weisselberg on the stand. office weisselberg on t shetand (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. 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it's not. the new subway series. what's your pick? in the most recent gal up poll, 75% of americans disapprove of the job congress is doing, and that by the way is actually an improvement over previous polls. many voters are showing pent-up frustration with the entire political system, considering casting votes across party lines as a result. our ohio voter panel turned out to be a really in firm tive microcosm of voter grievances across the country so i asked them a final question. if you could say one thing to politicians, what would it be? >> i would say personally that sometimes doing what you feel is right for yourself and right for the people that care about you and that you love may seem scary but part of change is a little bit of anxiety. >> i would say what's wrong is wrong, and even if everyone is doing it, and what's right is right, even if you're the only one doing it. >> i would say see us as people, see us as people, see us as community, see us as one, see us as issue, not of politics, see us. >> i would say enough is enough. it's time to, either come together, or think about whether you should be a part of this process. >> my thanks to our panel for their time and thoughtfulness. and can we do one last nonpolitical story? it's halloween. so we've got a treat for you. courtesy of the cincinnati zoo, and its cracker jack social media team who just love the likes on twitter, by turning pumpkins into tempting treats this. little sand cat striking a pose. and then this group of animals. i'll leave it to you to figure out what's what or who is who. and most of all, you got to believe this. no table manners necessary from the zoo's star hippo, ms. fiona. >> celebrating halloween by chowing down with jaws nothing short of spooky. that's going to do it for this special edition of "chris jansing reports" live from cleveland. i'll be back 1:00 eastern time tomorrow. katy tur reports is next. rrow katy tur reports is next vicks vapostick. strong soothing... vapors. help comfort your loved ones. for chest, neck, and back. it goes on clear. no mess. just soothing comfort. try vicks vapostick. it's the subway series menu! 12 irresistible subs... like #11 subway club. piled with turkey, ham and roast beef. this sub isn't slowing down any time soon. i'll give it a run for its money. my money's on the sub. it's subway's biggest refresh yet. i love san francisco, but i'm working overtime to stay here. now is not the time to raise taxes. i'm voting no on propositions m and o, because the cost of everything is going up. san francisco collects more tax revenue than nearly any city in america. but our streets are dirty and public safety is not getting better. i'm working hard to live within my budget. the city should too. join me in voting no on m and o. now is not the time to raise taxes in san francisco. vote no on m and o.