some are making claims about their own job-creating records that don't stand up to scrutiny. their case against the administration today got harder to make because new job numbers came out, unemployment fell again last month, down .2 to 8.5%. the economy gaping 200,000 jobs, 50,000 more than expected. these are decent, not spectacular by any means and president obama was cautious. >> there are a lot of people still hurting out there after losing more thain 8 million jobs in the recession, obviously, we have a lot more work to do. >> state and local government workers hardest hit, nearly a quarter million public sector jobs eliminated last year, including more than 100,000 teachers. jon huntsman called today's job report good news but said we can be doing better. ron paul said the same but warped the financial crisis is not over. rick santorum, the other gop candidates, were less generous. >> is great that the economy is moving forward. but it has got a boot on the throat of the economy and it is called obama's taxation regulatory policy and his continual beating up of people who try to create jobs in this country. >> with he created 200,000 new jobs last month. working with ronald reagan in the early '80s, we'd very simple formula, sound money, lower taxes, less red tape, more american energy and actually praise people who create jobs. that formula, led by august of 1983, to 1,300,000 jobs being created in one month. six times the number they are going to create this month. >> he went the "today" show right after he was inaugurated and he said if i can't turn this economy around in three years, i will be looking at a one-term proposition and we are here to collect. we are here to collect. we are taking it back. >> governor romney boasting of his record of turning around troubled companies when he headed bain capital. he is staking his campaign on the contrast, as he sees it between his performance as a business executive and president obama's record as chief executive. >> now, i don't happen to think that barack obama is a bad guy, i just don't think he has a clue. i -- and having never worked in the private sector, never having had a real job, it is not a surprise he doesn't know how to create a real job. >> i happen to think that if you want to create jobs, it helps to have had a job. and i have. >> i went off on my own and started my own business. i have learned from that. >> see i spent my life in the private sector, solving real problems. >> i will first make america the most attractive place in the world for job growth. for investment. for small business. for big business. >> i spent most of my life outside politics, dealing with real problems in the real economy. >> being in the private sector for 25 years, therefore knowing how the economy works, why jobs come, why they go not just watch jobs being created but actually creating jobs. >> creating jobs. >> create jobs. >> control jobs. kroonchts he yate jobs. >> time for someone who knows how to create jobs. >> two days ago, governor romney had this to say about the jobs he created in the private sector. >> very happy that in my former life, with he helped creator of 100,000 new jobs. by the way, we created more jobs in massachusetts than this president has created in the entire country. we will be comparing my record with his record and he comes up very, very shore. >> he made 100,000 job claim before. until now though we have been in the dark about specifics. there are 89,000 jobs at staples, 15,000 at sports authority and 7,900 at domino's pizza, all of which bain helped to establish or grow. that is what a romney spokesperson told the "washington post." a "post" fact checker pointed out those are current numbers, not numbers when romney was at bain, 12 years ago no reliable figures on that but politico managed to up cover some of the job losses that occurred on romney's watch, about 2200 at three companies that bain acquired. 100,000 is a figure that includes all the growth at staple, dom niece and sports authority long after romney had anything to do with them, whereas the job losses are directly connected to his tenure. as for claims his job creation record as governor of massachusetts is better than president obama's record, technically correct but not a slamdunk. he created 3400 jobs his first year as governor. the obama job loss numbers the romney campaign put out initially included the first three weeks in january, before president obama even took the oath of office. that is significant, because as you remember, the economy was hemorrhaging jobs in january, 820,000 jobs. then the romney campaign revised those numbers taking out the three weeks but kept february, march and april before any of president obama's economic policies take affect, the tax cuts, the sim plus n those three months, another 2.2 million jobs went away. in fairness to the romney campaign and keeping the white house honest, responsibility for the economy belonged to president obama, the recession officially ended that june, the economy began growing, the job losses slowed then stopped. the chart you are looking sat from the bureau of labor statistics and the trend line clear, job losses peaking in january of '09 when the economy was shrinking by 9% and shows an almost continuous upward slope the point we are at now a positive trend and 2.3 million jobs added since obama took office but still, not enough to overcome the jobs lost in 2009. and the unemployment number, even though it is the lowest in three years, is also higher than millions of people can take, may also be the higher than voters can tolerate you depends on factors. our political panel weighs in tonight, democratic strategist, james carville, republican strategist, alex castellanos and eric erics, from redstate.com. the jobs that romney created or didn't create it is still going to be all about the economy, right? >> sure it will. i think today, positive news for the president. they will have it out, bank capital certainly a legitimate addition to the campaign. sure they will rave the economy under president obama, right now for the moment, wind at our backs, which has not been the case for a lot of this administration, got to be feeling better today. >> erick you the obama administration wants to turn what many see as mitt romney's greatest at -- attribute want to turn it into a negative, story after story, huge profits at bain capital and people fired do they have a story to tell on that front? >> i think to a degree they do, probably mitt romney's biggest you will haver in ran bullet in this poll after poll after poll shows while americans don't particularly care for barack obama's policies? fixing the economy, they don't blame him for the unemployment, blame george w. bush many whose advisories work for mitt romney, you can put people on screen, from swing states, no less, who lost their jobs because of mitt romney directly ordering layoffs at bain capital. did he a good job jug ta posing his work with bain what the president did with general bhoirts when you have person after over five months starting with this moveon.org attack today of republicans coming on camera saying they don't like mitt romney because he laid them off and shutdown their town, it becomes who cost americans more jobs or less jobs and you can personalize it. americans like brachlt. >> analysts seem pleased with the jobs numbers today. keep one this pace and people get a sense things are getting better even if the numbers are above 8% do republicans need a plan b to beat obama? >> i don't think they need a plan b because i think you raced -- raised the issue. these numbers keep up. they probably won't. this is breaking news. something interesting happened in december. it was christmas. there's a lot of christmas hiring going on. a lot of democrats i talked to are worried saying by this spring and summer a lot of that christmas is going to wear off. those job numbers will be down again. you have the european debt crisis looming and you have the debt figures. we're now near 16 trillion going up, which that depresses psychologically depresses spending in the country. for all those reasons, unless obama can make christmas every month, it's going to be a problem for him. by the way, republicans can put faces on tv saying barack obama when he told me people don't come to las vegas, don't come out here to work, they fired me. so there have been a lot of stories out there that you'll get from both sides. >> jim, can president obama still blame president bush for the economy? >> right. understand, if you look at the trajectory of hiring, it's pretty dramatic what he inherited. since june of his first year in office, the line has not gone up fast enough. it's gone up. in terms of debt, we're expecting 155,000. analysts knew what month it was. it came in stronger than that. is he going to get 200,000 every month? that's highly doubtful. as long as he has some momentum to point to, that helps him a great deal. it's going to be a close election, but what he needs is some economic movement in the right direction and it looks like as of now he's got that. >> so even if the numbers are still above 8%, as long as he can show some sort of positive movement? >> i would say no, anderson. i would say, no, that that's not enough, that he's got to say, and i've got a plan to make it better. here's how i'm going to do that's different. here's how i'm going to work with republicans with whom i haven't been able to work with. republicans, they've also got to do a little lifting here too. they can't take this for granted. hey look, president obama has a plan to grow the economy. grow the economy top down from there. political artificial spending. republicans have to counter that. they've got to say, hey, look, we'll take money out of washington's pocket, cut taxes, spending there. grow this economy bottom up. organically, naturally. there's a new and better way than obama's old thinking. and so far, i'm not hearing that message from a lot of republicans. >> eric, these latest polls in south carolina, there's been a big question mark about romney, his ability to compete in the south. there was a sense he could be vulnerable, especially in south carolina. he's got nearly twice the support of his closest competitor, an 18-point lead. is it possible the conservative core of the republican party is warming to romney? >> i don't know that they're necessarily warming. i think they're getting post traumatic stress disorder from the last campaign season of the last year. they're ready for this to be over. they're seeing the way this is headed. mitt romney could well be the nominee coming out of new hampshire strongly and going into south carolina. he has nikki haley's support. they'll make custer's last stand in south carolina. see if it turns out better for them than custer. if so, he has the momentum. it's not that they like him or are warming from them. it's that they're tired of campaign season already. >> james, do you agree with that analysis? do you see the numbers in the same way? >> i've been in south carolina. they're pragmatic. i mean, it's a very conservative state. i think president bush xxxxi carried south carolina in 1988. it sort of reminds me what my daddy used to say when he cooked something for us. you're gonna like it because you've gotta like it. that's a little bit of mitt romney. you've gotta like him because you have no other choice. i felt that for some time. >> it was going to be though a strong state for rick perry. it was supposed to be at least. i would venture to guess, erick, are you surprised to see him in the back of the pack at this point? >> no, not after what happened in iowa. his campaign has to reboot. if he cannot make a public showing that he got the message of iowa, he's firing everybody. he's only got ten business days to do it, by the way. no, his last stand has come and gone. i don't know that he can do it. if he can surprise people in south carolina and have a stronger showing than what he's got, then maybe he can turn it around and move it into florida. otherwise, if it's close and mitt romney wins, people will legitimately say rick perry's to blame. >> james, do you still stand by your iowa caucus night statement that he is the worst candidate ever in american history? >> i do. i do. if you look at the promise he came with, the money he raised, everything else, i can't think of anybody who has been a bigger disappointment. >> james, you're forgetting aaron burr. come on. aaron burr was far worst of a presidential candidate. >> can't have been the worst candidate in american history. if he had been, i would have worked for him. >> probably been a democrat. >> james. >> remember, talking about him getting in and out. remember ross perot. he got in the race and got out of the race. he said the reason he got out was the president tried to mess up his daughter's wedding. someone said how can you mess up a texas wedding? someone show up in a sedan? >> james carville, thank you. let us know what you think. facebook, google plus, follow me on anderson cooper. still ahead, evangelical voters in south carolina and those stunning new poll numbers. if they're right, big if, the candidate you'd expect evangelicals to back may not get their vote after all in south carolina. later in the program, crime and punishment. it was all joran van der sloot could do to stay awake in court. he seemed bored today. then he sprang a huge surprise on everyone. tell you why his trial is now delayed. congestion. nyquil:what? tissue box (whispering): he said nasal congestion... nyquil: i heard him. anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't. politics now. some truly striking numbers out of south carolina. it's traditionally friendly to evangelicals. the numbers are from a new cnn/time/orc poll. they show mitt romney in the lead among likely voters describing themselves as born again as well as those who say they're not. governor romney leading social conservative rick santorum in south carolina. other polls show exactly the opposite. won't be long before we find out which is right. if this one is correct, it points to a romney cakewalk. if that's the case, the whole thing could be over by the end of south carolina for the republicans. joining me tonight, chief political analyst, gloria borgia and ralph reed. ralph, the latest poll shows romney the clear leader. 13 percentage points ahead of the closest competitor, rick santorum. it's fascinating to me. conventional wisdom is that romney is going to have a hard time with evangelicals because of his mormon faith or other reasons. these numbers seem to suggest otherwise. >> they do, anderson. i think we need to await further polling because it's going to look a lot different after new hampshire. anderson, this is a state where four years ago, mitt romney only got 11% of evangelical vote. it's going to be between 55 and 60% of the vote. if he overperforms, as this survey indicates, it will be very difficult to stop him, indeed. >> it could be over with south carolina as far as these -- i mean, if rick santorum or newt gingrich or perry can't do well among evangelicals in south carolina, there's very little future for them. >> well, i think two things are going on. number one, the field is very crowded. here you're going to have, for lack of a better term, the more conservative vote divided, if things hold, between perry, gingrich, santorum and ron paul. that's the best news possible for mitt romney. but i would add a word of caution, and that is that this is not anything like the results we saw in iowa. in iowa, santorum got 32% of the evangelical vote. romney got 13. i'd be very surprised if this holds, but i think what it does underscore is that unlike the sort of lazy caricature that is applied to conservative voters of faith, in iowa, 61% of evangelicals voted for either a mormon or roman catholic. you don't have to get up and quote scripture and say you're born again and you'll get their votes. >> gloria, were you surprised by the numbers? >> no. you know, it's interesting. i think when you look at the evangelical vote, we now have to understand that they're not a monolith, it isn't a simple picture, as ralph says, and that they vote on a variety of issues. this could also not be great for the republican party as a whole that evangelicals, for example, disagree with some republicans on the issues of capital punishment or even the environment so as you head into a general election, they may not be as dependable as they once were considered. >> do you buy that, ralph? >> i'd be surprised, anderson, and i'll tell you why. if you look at the exit polls from the 2008 general election, john mccain actually got a higher percentage of the evangelical vote against barack obama four years ago than george w. bush got in 2000, even though bush was an explicit evangelical. he got 73%, and that was before obama care, it was before the failed stimulus, it was before some of the moves that he's made on things like saying the defense of marriage act is unconstitutional. i do think though that let's assume for a minute that the field stays where it is. if romney ends up being the nominee, he's still going to have to wed himself to that faith-based grassroots element through a vice presidential pick, through a convention speech and through general election themes. but whoever the republican nominee is going to get a gift on the day they're nominated with regard to this vote, and that is they're going to be running against barack obama. that will provide some built in intensity. >> obama supporters would disagree on the failed stimulus notion. gloria, john mccain won the south carolina primary in 2008, bob dole did it in 1996, for all of the talk, they do have a pragmatic streak. >> right, they do. don't forget last time around, huckabee did very well among evangelicals. what's happening now though, to mitt romney's benefit, is that while, yes, some evangelicals like him, and that's quite a hurdle to jump when you're a mormon, by the way, but the evangelical vote is being split. i'm here in new hampshire and i spent the day with rick santorum at an event and what he does very cleverly, this appeals to evangelicals as well as to people who vote on economic issues, he weaves his kind of values agenda with his economic agenda. that is that a strong family equals a strong country. so that's kind of a message that appeals to a very, very broad spectrum. >> there was a report, ralph, that a group of evangelical leaders were meeting in texas, or this weekend, to try to look at who they could rally around as the anti-romney. >> right. there have been a number of those meetings. there were a number of those meetings to, quote, stop mccain in 2008. the challenge anderson, gloria's already referenced. number one, the united states is not cuba. it's a free country. so you can't just go up to a candidate and say, sit down and shut up. these are people who have invested years of their lives and raised millions and in some cases tens of millions of dollars. at this point, they only have another ten or twelve days to wait anyway. the second issue is even if somebody does get out, you would still have something similar in south carolina to what happened in '08, where mike huckabee would have won the south carolina primary but for the votes that thompson got in the upstate, especially in greenville and spartanburg counties. one final thing that i don't think can be underestimated in south carolina once we get there, mitt romney having nikki haley, who's both a devout christian and a tea party favorite, that's an asset. >> finally, you are skeptical of this new poll that shows romney 13 points ahead in south carolina? >> well, i don't want to say i'm skeptical. i want