Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141216 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141216

Its been. To talk about swings, talk about crude oil, talk about the ruble which after that surprise decision by the Russian Central Bank yesterday to raise to 17 , the ruble immediately jumped up 10 and then fell back by about 8 and a 20 percentage point swing here. If you just looked today and didnt know what happened this morning you might think its an expected reaction and hide a lot of volatility we have seen, again, in global asset glasses here. Whiplash is only term some people are using to describe it. Yeah. No doubt. In the major averages right now, where we stand on the street. Theres the s p 500. A fractional mover. Thats sort of again helps to tell the story. Again, back under 2,000. The nasdaq under pressure today to the tune of 17 points and this ones interesting because some of the decliners on the session of note include tesla back below 200 mark off 2 . Amazon off 3 and meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial average seeing a gain of 40 points t trying to hold on here and interesting, scott, given that the biggest decliners are not the names expecting today. Home depot, microsoft, nike. Joining us is michael underhill, kevin giddis, james lu, Rick Santelli and our chief International Correspondent michelle carusocabrera. You want to put this last 24 hours in perspective . Russias a fullblown currency crisis and how it plays out remains to be seen and theyre punished by the decline in the price of oil and expect the ruble certainly to go lower. Central bank of russia is in full war position. They have to do something to try to stem the decline in the currency or else they have to start having real trouble figuring out the pile of reserves, help Russian Companies prohibited by sanctions of Western Banks to roll over more than 100 billion of debt next year coming due or defend the currency . Choices are tougher and tougher. Whens it mean for investors in the United States . We want to wait to see the ripple effects, whos on the wrong side of this trade . Is there a big fund thats going the wrong way and could cause a spreading of risk in the markets. James, who do you think are the winners and losers . I think rush whys going to continue to see pain and not ready to call a bottom on the ruble. I think theyll use rhetoric and the reserves and that is going to spill over into other countries with commodity exports as a main driver like venezuela, obviously. Whens the impact on europe in particular here . How exposed are they to a russian deep recession . Europe is clearly much more exposed to the United States, not just because of the Energy Sector and the trade but the financial sector, as well. I think fewer linkages here in the United States and i think the market is misjudging the impact on the u. S. It is true that the Energy Sector is a big drag on earnings in the Fourth Quarter but we are gong do see a huge bounceback, especially in other sectors and i like the u. S. At this point. Rick, people are trying to make comparisons of now and the 90s rerelating to the currency crisis. Are the folk there is on the floor talking about a possibility of contagion of a magnitude of back then . Of course theyre discussing it around the water cooler by the difference is that any of the seasoned traders on this floor know all too well that when you see something coming and discuss it, its a whole lot different than the surprise factor when they me it isstastst of thin air. From the citizens, from the Business Energy standpoint and then the other side of the ledger, thats Corporate Finance and credit issues and right side of the ledger, i really think people are underestimating how janet yellen and company will use this as their weather effect with regard to policy. Ive always suspected personally that theyre not really in a mode to tighten or remove more accommodation. But boy, they wait any longer and theyre going to be trying to tighten at an end of a Business Cycle and then this comes out. Listen. If it wasnt this, it would be Something Else. When you are in a hunt for yield and you have certain groups like hedge funds and too big to fail banks of transmission of liquidity, it is put to work. How many shows in the last year we discussed how tight the spreads were and how junk was behaving at price structures that seemed illogical . Thats for sure. Lets talk about some breaking news with Mary Thompson on General Electric. Mary . General electric is holding an annual Investor Outlook day today and the head lines crossing from the presentation given by Ceo Jeff Immelt. The company saying basically 2015 earnings between lets call it 1. 72 to 1. 80 in line with estimates of 1. 79. This is a breakout on the industrial side and around 60 cents from ge capital. Some other headlines from that, 2015 industrial organic growth of 2 to 5 below 2014s growth levels and importantly the company sees issues. Fx, russia, oil and gas is headwinds going into 2015. And we want to focus on this oil and gas segment thats a driver for ge lately. Its expecting revenue in the segment flat to up a bit. Those are the headlines. The presentation is ongoing and more headlines coming up in the 4 00 hour. Back to you. Were hearing from jeff immelt tomorrow on this network. Would you characterize what youve heard as conservative . Is that the right way to characterize this . Conservative and as they put it in the presentation thepragm. Especially coming to oil and gas. Again, which is a key focus for invest to recalls heading into this meeting. Mary, thank you for now. Michael underhill, want to on this note ask whether you think some of the disappointment if you want to call it that in this outlook has to do with the recent news on oil and gas here for General Electric, do you see a buying opportunity in this name . If not, where do you see it . I see high volatility, low gtp growth. Ge not a bad name. They have exposure to energy and looking where theyre positioned right now, it is a marathon. Not a sprint. And if you go with a name, a name like ge is a safe bet. Kevin, you know, we have a cocktail were trying to digest today of falling oil, of russia, and tomorrow we get the fed. Hows that going to play out . Well, it is interesting. Treasury market is beneficiary of a number of things, whether its europe or china, whether its the fall in oil prices and now russia. And owl of this points to as rick stated something tough for the fed to have to try to make decisions on. They can affect shortterm rates easily. The long end of the market is mostly out of the feds hands. What they have to do is figure out where do they domestically. Is there anything to do now . Between now and 2015 without the fed having to do a whole lot. Kevin, a great point, but i just wonder, if you start to look down the road and think ultimately, look, we have had a long run already here both for the expansion and bull market. Some point it comes to an end and the fed needs a response to that when it comes. Theyre probably not going to want to wait too, too long to raise rates if only for ammunition down the road, right . Yeah, kelly. I think so but theyre calling for rate increases for the last six years. Every time we hit december, januarys higher rates and then by march its a folded story and i think you are right. I think the fed has to and they can raise shortterm rates and not hurt the economy, certainly not affect the long end of the marktd and where inflation is a better story and probably start a trend of higher rates on the short end and get away with it. We have seen the curve flatten 50 basis points in the last 3 months. Michelle, i wonder the new wrinkle in that story of what the fed may do and when it may do it related to currency issues in the emerging markets directly impacted negatively if the fed raises rates. Sure. The strong dollar in terms of what it does to corporate earnings and causes the slowdowns in various sectors in the United States and weve had investors, bill gross and paul kruger, two very prominent individuals, paul krugman is not convinced. Why would you want to raise rates when the rest of the world is going into a spiral, possibly . And krugman said hes trying to bully into not he used that word himself. His term. Exactly. Michael and then james quickly and then we have to go. Talk financials. What do you do with the sector of exposures to the i dont know what you call it. Flight to safety. Michael, you first. Well, when i look at it, high volatility, low gdp growth, a low Interest Rate outlook, go for Energy Limited master partnerships, timber, agriculture. Anything thats yield. But sustainable dividend yields. Pay yacht in terms of financials for a bipolar trade. James . I dont agree that rates stay this low. Janet yellen hasnt flinched all year, weather, ukraine or recent volatility. Rates havent flinched either. Sorry to interrupt. I think they take out considerable time in the msz and and start to raise rates next year its moderate and steady. All right. Thank you all so much. Michelle, appreciate it this hour. Keeping us up to date on the fastmoving events. We have about 50 minutes to go. The dow trying to hold on to a going of about 40 points. S p just barely positive and the nasdaq still underperformer yet again today. A White Knuckle market. Who better to hear from than vanguard founder jack bogle. Well also get his take on financial turmoil on russia, the oil collapse and how safe your money is in this environment and the live poll is open. Tell us if you would invest in the russian stock market wiping out half of the value this year. Is it time to go bargain hunting . Click on cnbc. Come vote. Later, the sony hackers reportedly leaking new emails this time from the ceo. Plus, they have issued a cryptic threat to anyone who might go see the film the interview. Well have jose details. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Oh and could you turn on air conditioning im starting to sweat. Ill just do it myself. Useless. Thats nice. Sets the mood. Have your entire house within reach, even when your devices arent. Introducing relay by wink its like a robot butler, but not as awkward. Welcome back. We have given up nearly all the strong gains of this market this morning. The dow up more than 200 points and now barely up 30. Major indexes are red. Nasdaq and s p off by half a point. Dominic chu probably had whiplash today looking at movers and shakers, right . So many individual stories. So lets start with the Oil Companies moving, i mean, generally speaking to the upside here at oil prices appeared to stabilize a bit in the session here. Chevron, exxonmobil, conoco phillips, hess up. A tough session for tesla shares below 200 for the First Time Since june and not closed below that mark since march here and tesla shares a focus and 3m, boeing and cvs health and raised the dividend by at least 20 and boeing and cvs with stock buyback programs and google shares hitting a 52. Week low after a lowered Sales Estimates for the Fourth Quarter 2015 and 2016 to accounted for Slower Growth and strength in the u. S. Dollar. The firm also lowered the price target, kelly, scott, to 600 a share from a prior 670. Thank you very much, dom, for now. When the markets are as unpredictable as today, you want the know jack, yes, jack bogle. Joining us is mr. Bogle himself, the founder of vanguard. Welcome back. Always a pleasure. And certainly, on a day and a time when were seeing turbulence around the world and trying to make sense of it, maybe some of us need our hand held by a guy like you. What do you make of it . Well, first of all, i seen a lot going on in my career and now going like 62 years but this is a particularly trying time i think around the world. You know . The russian incredible implosion there and the huge Interest Rate hike is going to be have profound implications of europe, particularly in germany and not at all clear, you know, whether its going to continue, whether oil prices are going to rebound. We just dont know those things and what impact it will have on the fed. So i think what people have to get used is a market where if you jump in and out on a moments notice you will be badly defeated. Thats a speculative strategy. I think youve got to set your own strategy, longterm strategy. Stocks and bonds, aloe case, asset and then stick with it or as we say down here, scott, stay the course. Yeah. You dont rejigger your portfolio, jack, at a time like this when nerves rise, theres a tendency to call your broker, your Financial Adviser and say, hey, maybe we should make some changes because im not sure what to did. Well, my basic rule is dont do something. Just stand there. You know . Times of great market turbulence are awful times to make Investment Decisions an they end up being speculative decisions. I mean, earning power of u. S. Corporations and dividendpaying power of u. S. Corporations driving the market in the long run and not changed at all. Drives the u. S. Market. So i think we are in for a lot of turbulence and significant decline. Get used to it. Youre in the stock market. Theres risk. It goes both ways. Jack, you caught some flack for comments about investing in the u. S. Versus abroad lately. Do you think its prudent for u. S. Based investors to keep the investments in this country even if it means sacrificing extra points of growth for opportunities overseas . Well, first, u. S. Companies are international companies. People should never forget that. Half of the earnings of american companies, half of the profits all come from outside of the bounds. The u. S. Portfolio is an International Portfolio and whatever anybody else says. Going international, you know, i tell people, i dont do it. Thats a factual statement. I dont have any profound feelings about it. But id rather bet on the u. S. , earning my money in dollars. I spend my money in dollars and save in dollars. I dont need to get into risk of foreign currencies. If you do the International Portfolio, maybe do no more than 20 is my rule. I dont do that but i dont believe in 52 of your money outside of the u. S. This is a great nation with great places to invest. Great financial institutions. Great government institutions. All a little bit faltering and great shareholder protection. Some people, jack, would also add to great, getting to great valuations in the u. S. Stock market and that the better values just simply lie overseas. You want to respond to that . Sure. First, theres no question if you measure it by price earnings multiple, pes, much lower abroad than they are here. However, counter vailing argument and i would say equally persuasive argument is the reason foreign stocks appear so cheap because there are a lot of risks there that youre taking. You are taking think of russian right now. Think of the problems facing Great Britain and japan and france. The three largest markets in the developed area. You know, i think they have a higher risk an they deserve to be cheaper and they won. Theyre cheaper. Theyve gone down. They havent had a good year at all. U. S. Is probably 10 or 15 Percentage Points ahead this year and even better for the last four or five years and thats a little bit of a warning signal, i admit, but i dont really think about jumping around based on relative valuations unless theyre terribly extreme. Jack, also, do you want to just comment on this question thats hanging and being debated here and everywhere on wall street lately and this period relative to the late 90s when we did see some of the currency crises overseas and the runup of the dotcom bubble and some say Allan Greenspan should have respo responded. How would you compare the two time periods . Well, theres certain similarities as you indicate. I was going to say about what Alan Greenspan should have done and now you tell me. Where was he then . But the fact of the matter is that these things come and go and longterm returns on stocks are driven by dividend yields which are low and price earnings multiples and moderately high so i dont think we expect very large returns in the future but i think well do better in the u. S. Stock market than in the bond market and the international or nonu. S. Markets and that over a long period of time, look at ten years and see what really counted back in that ancient year of 2014. Jack, thank you. Always good to hear a longer term perspective on this. First rule is dont do something, just stand there. Happy and healthy one, mr. Bogle. See you in the new year. Same to you guys. Good to be with you. Thank you. Thank you so much. 35 minutes to go before the bell rings on wall street. Dow holding on to gains but only up 42 after being up more than 200 in the session. Coming up, you heard from jack bogle. We have jim grant to weigh in on the feds policy meeting tomorrow. Find out if he thinks the mess in the russian oil markets impacted the fed and time to go bargain shopping. Do you have a stomach to invest in russian stocks right now . Theyre down 50 this year. Some might be thinking the price is right. Take part in the live poll at cn cnbc. Com vote. The results and the pros weigh in next. Heres a chart to look at. The market vectors rss. The etf down more than 50 this year. That might be tempting some investors to think its a buying oppor

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