Whether or not at this point in the economic pandemic cycle they need to spend that bullet. They will be doing some things that are more accommodative. It will be difficult for them to reverse that policy somewhere down the road. Jonathan mike swell of Goldman Sachs is with us. On treasuries, on bad news being bad news, is that your view of things, how high can we take 10year yield . Mike great to be with you, jonathan. On the there is a cap treasury market, and its really the result of looking away from the slow term where there are certain instances where people think about growth postcovid. We see significant vaccine implementation. The jobs report, it will take a long time to get back to normal. The fed will be on hold for the foreseeable future. As a result, you will not see a 50 basis point increase in the 10year. People should sit tight and recognize that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. Today proves that we will be in this odd situation where markets will look fo
Europe, up by 2. 5 . Todays number from barclays, very strong. We are going to hear from jes staley a little later in the program, our interview from early round. The pound bouncing around all over the place. We were into 1. 31. I think this is broad Dollar Strength rather than anything else. Take a look at the bloomberg dollar index. Alix rising covid cases impacting the economic data. Composite pmi for the euro area dropping below the 50 mark, which shows contraction. Meeting. O ecbs next joining us is john hardy, Saxo Bank Head of fx strategy. Does 1. 18 make sense for when you consider the rising uncertainty . John of course, the pressure should be on the downside given the covid resurgence. I think the general take on the could be that if we are seeing this democrat sweep scenario, we are positioning for a weaker dollar for some time in the future. Anything looks fair between 1. 17, and to me, this is the upper area of where we should be. We shouldnt be doing anything and eurodoll
People doubt them more and more there is every possibility this is a time to take the road less traveled thats the point of this particular segment right now lets look at a few tables and charts so, what do we know . This was the hardest hit area of the market the peak to trough decline in the s p, 35 restaurants down 45 airlines down 70 and then hotels, which also includes cruise ships, down 73 its the epicenter of the pandemic the issue is that despite all that, we really havent gotten worse since march. And thats an important circumstance look at slide two. Heres the etf in question rather than taking the idiosyncratic risk to pick American Airlines or delta or swefrkts theres an etf, its jets its the Global Airline industry in fact, its 39 stocks. Its not just u. S. Carriers. A total of 1. 5 trillion in market cap take a look at the first of two charts here is the plunge, of course. After bottoming in march with all equities, you get a nice ricochet and unlike the market, the Airli
Looking at the biggest weekly loss since late june the s p both with interday trading. The nasdaq is on track the fourth week in a row on higher prices dow futures indicated down at this poirchlnt looking at yields for the 10year. New this morning, china and the u. S. Have agreed to review the progress of the phase one part of the trade deal well do that in the coming days talks are scheduled from last saturday the review comes as u. S. china ties have deteriorated just summarizing you know that. Thats one of the reasons why. We knew that yes we have seen a series of things that show the relationship has deteriorated if you were to try to put the different segments of the rift, you are up at almost double digits how many Different Things have become bones of contention and the second largest, largest some days economy in the world. A global nightmare we need them, they need us on a certain way it is official taking advantage on what the administration would argue from the markets persp
Permeate. It has largely been driven by the concern that we dont have a handle on the virus and we dont have a handle on a solution for this difficult situation we are now seeing involving washington. It doesnt seem to be at the moment a landing zone for the democrats and the republicans. They are significantly far apart. The fact that you heard such partisan briefing suggests we are no closer. Thender at some point markets will have to shift from focusing on the dollar to shifting to other Asset Classes as well. That has been something we have been watching very carefully over the last few days. We have been watching carefully what has been happening in europe. Offpean equities are sold because of the resurgence in the virus count. That doesnt make sense if you believe that we are going to see a story developing in the United States. We will try to get an assessment of what is happening with the economy throughout the program as we continue to watch what happens in the United States.