Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20160506

A most interesting day, because we talk about inflation in australia, talk about commodities. But its really all about jobs. Just a little bit of a haze into yen. Tom yeah, i also noticed german yields have again way this morning. One of my great focuses will be to revisit the twoyear and 10year german yield. What i want to ask you about, francine, are the elections in britain k. We talk about them yet . Where are we in terms of results . Francine ok, so the results we find out a little bit later. We already have indications. Yesterday we voted on three things. The mayor here in london, but also local elections. What we know so far is that it doesnt seem to have a huge revolution. I dont know the conflictions of brexit, but well try to analyze it. First off, lets get the news. Thanks, francine. Early results are in from the British Regional and local elections. Nationalists are on course for a Third Straight victory in scotland. Nicholas will extend her term as head of the scotlands semiautonomous government. The first real test, labour suffered losses in wales and has a mixed picture in england. The election comes just seven weeks before the u. K. Vote on whether to stay in the european union. It was continue extraordinary result for the republican lowered of the house. House Speaker Paul Ryan says he isnt ready to support donald trump yet. In roy ans words, im just not there right now. Trump fired back saying hes not ready to support their agenda. Ump and ryan may meet next week. Wildfires spread to an area bigger than new york city. The numbers are staggering. More than 80,000 people have fled the city of Fort Mcmurray. 8,000 people had to be airlifted out. And the fire may turn out to be the costliest catastrophe in canadas history. The losses may go over 7 billion. It forced Oil Producers to cut back their output by 40 . Vladimir putin will have a rare oneonone meet wag group of seven leaders. Japans Prime Minister is breaking the russian president s isolation today. Hell meet with putin in the black sea resort of sochi. Western leaders, they argued, should engage with putin. It was reported that president obama asked abe not to make the rip. Mine while, putins orchestra just played a event in syria. Last year Islamic State used the site for mass executions. Weeks ago, russian air power helped force the militants from the city. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Tom thanks so much. Lets look at commodities. Whats fascinating on this jobs day, it was not moving and what is moving. Its really, really nuanced this morning. Equities go nowhere. The dow, 17,660. The yield comes in over the last 24 hours from a 1 0 into a 175. Thats a big deal. The call of a 150. Crude churning on to the extreme. Currency actually pretty quiet. The v. I. X. Churning again. But the headline for me is yesterday german yields finally gave way and broke down. Well be watching the twoyear u. S. , a litmus paper at 8 30 with bill gross joining us. Im watching euro swiss and ill get to that in a minute. Francine this is what im looking out for. I decided to look at stocks while you were looking at bonds. Stoxx down. On the week, theyre actually down quite significantly, or at least most since february. I put the world index there for good measure. Yen at 106. 93. Its rising a bit. Its all about the american jobs data and whether it will shape the Interest Rate outlook. Tom lets find out where we are. This is international. Weve got guests in the 6 00 hour. Heres the great news off euro swiss franc. It was strong two years ago, and then the trend back, and were just legging up again in strong euro weak swiss. Its something to note over the last couple of weeks, the odd actions, as euro swiss goes over 1. 10. Not profound, about the i just thought it was interesting. Francine i like it, because you see the move. This is what i think. Its a little bit off. This is about the biggest junk bond e. T. F. Its what caught my eye this morning. I tried to chart it, and this is the Largest Exchange traded fund. Its actually blackrocks share. I brought it back to 2011. Look at the drop. If you zoom in and see its dropped quite significantly. Its basically flashing the potential warning that a threemonth rally in this market is losing steam. So just something to keep your eye on as you look at all of your asset classes. Were joined by the head of markets research, francesco. Great to have you on the program, as always. When you look at the markets, today is jobs day. I know its important. How many Interest Rates are you expecting from janet yellen . Theyre data dependent, but also trying to guide. Francesco the forecast is for three hikes in the second half of the year, so june, september, december. Francine bold. Francesco it is bold. In honesty, the risk, as we described to the down side given this new narrative by the fed, i think what theyve two things strike me about the fed. They havent revised their suck will i cal outlook. You have guests saying june is in play. Its the q2 data that rebounds. I think thats sensible to say. And in their projections, they havent really changed things that much between december and march. What theyre emphasizing, however, both in their narrative and in the numbers is a revision in the structural way the economy performs. So the longterm growth, the neutral rate, and we see other Central Banks do this. So i think what is happening here is after quarter after quarter of never really getting to escape speed, all of us, including Central Banks, are learning that there are Structural Forces at play, which companies and consumers are valuing. Francine if youre expecting a rate increase in june and the market is just pricing at 10 chance of that, are we going to see stocks and bonds go haywire . Francesco look, i think theres a lot of duration in the market clearly, but also in the stock market. If you look at the performance from january of all staple the or high Interest Ratesensitive stocks, the ones that have very stable coupon like cash flows, that has been very strong. So if the fed were to prepare the data, were to be convincingly strong, and the fed were to prepare the market for a june hike, then i think he would see a rotation for sure. Tom good morning. I dont know anybody from a major house in the street that is so visible about what your recommended trades are and the visibility of whether you make a gain or a loss. You stand singular in that ability. Recently, its been a little bit ugly for you and Goldman Sachs in taking measured, modest losses. How can you trade successfully in this environment . I dont get how pros can set up a hedge with all the cacophony of macro that weve got going on. Francesco look, we have tough trades. We recommend them every year in november. The irony here is that weve had a terrible First Quarter in these trades, but were back, or even above levels where we initiated them. Is that y takeway here the staying power is really important in these markets, cause we do observe very brittle markets from time to time. Things get overheated and then collapse under their own weight. But if your conviction is high enough and you manage to stay with the trade, then its a winning strategy. Tom everybody on the street should write Research Notes where you know what the hell is going on in their mind and they document their brain. Help with us the twoyear german yield. We break down again. You Start Talking about a revisit of tantrums. Can the german two yee, can the german 10year move through to new records negative and positive yields . Francesco i think weve seen two things happen here. One is the euro trade at the upper end of that range has been since the start of q. E. , and that has made people think theres a greater chance that this c. B. May try to fend euro by cutting rates again. Second thing is that weve seen an increase in the pace of purchases by the e. C. B. So the combined effect of these things has led to that price action. I think the interesting thing here is the fact that the 10year and the 30year not rallying as much as they had in the beginning of 2015, so my sense is that particularly ahead of the Corporate Bond purchases by the e. C. B. And with oil continuing to gradually increase, people are a bit hesitant to think that well see flattening of the core european bond curves. Tom well continue through the hour with francesco from Goldman Sachs. We go on to our coverage of jobs day. Bill gross and jim glassman later in the morning. But first, bill will join us from citigroup. Well recalibrate his global recession probability. Were still going to bring you Michelle Meyer on the inequality of our labor america. This is bloomberg surveillance. Francine were looking at jobs. Jobs in the u. S. , were also looking at currencies. Im Francine Lacqua here in london. Tom keene is in new york. Lets get to the news. Medivation has rejected sanofis takeover offer again. They repeated the french drug makers bid is too low, calling it highly opportunistic. Sanofi has threatened to go directly to Share Holders if talks dont begin. First quarter profit dropped 33 atthe Worlds Largest steel maker. The lucksenburgbased company was hit hard by slumping steel prices. China has been exporting record amounts of steel, undercutting prices in u. S. And the europe. And speaking of chain ark the countrys largest ride service is taking another big step in its battle with uber. Its close to raising about 2 billion in its latest round of funding, according to people familiar with the matter. The company is seeking a valuation of 25 billion. That would make didi kuaidi the fourth most valuable start upin the world. Francine thank you so much. Now lets stay in asia and actually talk about japan. This is a chart that we made for francesco of Goldman Sachs. It basically shows the 40year yield. So the 40year in blue. The red circle is when kuroda decides just a couple of days after deciding hes not contemplating to go into negative rates, and you can see not only are the spreads practically nonexistent between the 40 and 30year, but a lot of the banks have also been hurt by it. Francesco, do we need more easy money, is that the answer for japan . Francesco thats a central chart, the one you brought up. As you see, we stationed a long period of time at 10, 140 basis points. Talked, we n kuroda went all the way down to 25. Its possible we had expectations to justify that move, and i dont think anything beyond 10 years, or between 10 years and 30 years carries that much of a macro expectation content. So i think whats happening here is that they surprised on the rate cut, and they also do these operations, which theyve extended to the long end of the curve. Now, who owns these bonds . 75 , or the Life Insurance companies. Life insurance companies, seeing what was going on, decided to receive a lot of these long and dated bonds, because theyre mandated to do so. They need duration to fulfill their regulations. And so that has led to that spectacular price action. The 10year plus maturity bonds are up 15 , 17 year to date, which is staggering. Francine so it means you cant cut more into negative territory, right . Francesco this is the near term, creating negative wealth effect. So its burning a hole into the Life Insurance companies. Its creating problems for the banks. And its creating a lot of monetary discombobulation across the market. So i think the speed of that move, the surprise has actually backfired. Tom you talk about institutions affected by bond die natural sandicks by negative Interest Rates. Do you and your team at goldman have any belief that the effect of negative Interest Rates will move over into the Retail Investor and the little guy at the local german bank or the denmark bank, wherever. Are we going to transfer negative Interest Rates over to ere mortals from institutions . Francesco i think not fully, because particularly banks have a preference to preserve the euro rates for small retailers, but surely i think the policy is designed to seep through, you know, the private sector more broadly, so that would be the intent of the central bank rules. If you manage to steepen the yield curve for a bank, the can emains profitable, carry trades and eventually lend more. Tom im going with that, francesco, but why are we seeing the market response in the last 10 days or so were seeing . I get the idea were helping the banks, why dont i see it . Francesco well, because the banks theres a tension here. The consumers dont want the negative rates, and i think thats why were talking about the effective lower bound. There is a limit, which banks can push these negative rates to their customers. And then all of this stuff, i mean, it must be said, is untested. Weve not seen in history negative rates, so we cant really say whether this will actually work and spur more lending and borrowing. Francine im told that dollar yen is going to go down to 95 this year. Will it . Francesco who said this . Francine mr. Yen. 95 seems pretty steep. Francesco it is. It will be a full reversal of the effect it had on dollar yen. I think that is thats not going to happen, unless theres an overshooting for positioning reasons. We still have the view that the fed is going to surprise to the up side, maybe not the full three, but surely more than the market discounts on sbrate policy. And thats largely on wages and inflation picking up from here. Were starting to see signs of this. And on the other hand, the b. O. J. Is very committed to containing full throttle q. E. , and that is going to increase going forward. Francine thank you so much for joining us today. Hes from Goldman Sachs. Coming up later this morning on bloomberg go, the chief Investment Officer for gangco investors. Catch it at 7 00 a. M. In new york, noon in london. Francine this is surveillance. Im fran keen lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. North koreas first most political meeting in 36 years gets underway today, the First Congress of the ruling party since the 19 0s. But its also the 1980s. But its also the first time that bloomberg is live from pyongyang. Tom mckenzie, what does this tell us about market reforms . Is the new north Korean Leader trying to open that door . Its always been an isolated economy. Tom mckenzie well, thats the really interesting question, and the question is whether or not the congress is basically going to give blessing to market reforms that weve seen happen over the last few years. We dont know whether thats an intentional move by the government to start the market reform or whether it is just a natural opening up of the market as people start to use money and spend chinese income. Weve seen shops, seen things on sale, so will the Congress Give those kind of markets development . This is a very interesting question. Were going to look for answers. Francine this is the first time in 36 years that we have a Workers Party holding a full congress. What are we expecting from that . I guess its a way of the leader to purge his inner circles, but tell the community at large what he wants. Tom mckenzie absolutely. This is when he took over in 2011, so hes been in power five years, and he wants to cement his power. This is a coronation for kim jong un. And he wants to protect his image to his people and the rest of the world. This is one way, bringing in journalists, to try to get a message across. Were going to be watching for what that message is. But this is a very symbolic thing for kim jong un, and we hope to hear more about whether or not there are going to be market reforms. Maybe well hear some kind of olive branch reach out to china, their closest ally, who they remain noticedy for for huge amounts of aid. Francine so, tom, very quickly, this is, of course, a very and a leader thats been isolated dramatically. Are we expecting it to get closer to china, as youre suggesting, and will we find out today . Tom mackenzie well, there are some who are optimistic. After this congress, after the securing of his grip on the country, he reached back to a country, china, that used to have a relationship it described with north korea as being like tea, that close. But that relationship has soured. Now well be looking to see whether or not he reaches out to china, which is so important in north korea. Francine tom, thank you so much. Tom mackenzie from pyongyang. Tom it is jobs day. Headline data at 8 30. Right now, global with francine in london. Im tom keene in new york. Much going on. Lower yields today. A churn to the market away from yields as we await that American Labor number. Right now, news in london. Thanks, tom. The 48hour ceasefire in syria appears to be holding. The truce was designed to halt the fighting in aleppo. Hundreds of civilians have been killed in the northern syrian city in the last two weeks. The ceasefire is scheduled to end tonight. U. S. Officials say theyd like to see it continue. If russias forecast on oil prices is right, the country budget deficit will last until the end of the decade. Thats according to a new Bloomberg Survey of economists. They use the russian forecast that oil will average 40 a barrel, and said the government books wont balance until 2020 or later. Vladimir putins government is seeking fiscal savings of one percentage point of g. D. P. To balance the budget within three years. A number of republicans have backed away from the partys likely president ial candidate, donald trump. But trump now has one of the richest republicans in his corner. Billionaire casino magnate sheldon ad ellison tells the New York Times hell be backing trump. Hes donated millions to republican candidates. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Tom thank you so much. Great scene there, lining up behind mr. Trump. Its a sort of maybe. I dont know where we are sunday morning for the sunday talk shows. Heres speaker ryan not ready to support mr. Trump in a rare rebuke. This is in the New York Times. You see it across all. And whats really going on here to me is, again, the idea that mr. Trump isnt an insider am hes a wheeler and dealer from new york, and hes picking up wheeler dealers. I get that. I dont know how he picks up the republicans, midwest establishment, as personified by the speaker from wisconsin. Francine yeah, i dont know either. Its very interesting for me, because i also see donald trump finally weigh in on the brexit debate. A lot of people were hoping that he would join or maybe that he wouldnt join, but now it seems very clear after the interview that hes probrexit. Im not sure that sways the poll, or maybe it does in different directions. Lets ask a man who might know. Voters heading to the polls in a series of elections across the u. K. Yesterday. This offers a game of Voter Sentiment nationwide before the crucial referendum on june 23. Meanwhile, the Presumptive Republican nominee, donald trump, has weighed in. Lets get straight to john mills from j. M. L. John, always a great pleasure to speak to you, because youre one of the most pro brexiters on the program. The fact that donald trump comes and says im pro, does it help your cause or not . John i must say i would like to think hard about that one. I think theres very mixed perceptions about donald trump in the u. K. , whether his endorsement would be a help overall, im not so sure. I think some people would be pleased to hear him say that, but i think others might be more skeptical. Francine do you think theres a real chance that brexit happens, given the polls weve seen in recent days and weeks . John well, the poll that came out today showed the brexit 1 ahead, 43 to 42, Something Like that. I think its very, very close. Its too close to call. And bookies show a majority in favor of the remain. Theyve been wrong in the past. They were certainly wrong about leicester city. I think they could be wrong this time, too. Francine when you look at the local elections that we saw yesterday, the mayoral elections that well have the results of later this afternoon, theres no revolution. Theres no antigovernment sense. Does that not indicate that the polls may be a little bit off, that brexit a little bit urther away . John i think it may be. I think theres big brobts polls on brexit, because were in uncharted territory. Different polls produce different results. It all depends hugely on what the turnout is. I think that francine theyre having their own referendum about whether they stay in the e. U. It would be embarrassing if theres another referendum. John no, youve got to have a majority in the house of commons. I dont believe that majority exists. But even if it did, i dont think theyre very keen on having a referendum on independence now, because the calculations they had before the last referendum were i think of the 113 a barrel. Its now judge between 30 and 40. Scotland will be lost with the referendum now. I think even if there was a referendum there, which i dont think there will be, they wouldnt win. Tom for those that support an independent england, an i understand incident united kingdom, what is the distinctive feature they have to do, the action that they have to do in the next five or six weeks to sway the vote over to their side . John to sway votes towards coming out . Tom towards brexit, yes. John i think what well have is a large amount of political activity, knocking on doors, a lot of leaders delivered, and whats called the ground war i think is going to warm up over the next period, and i think this will have a substantial effect. I think you will draw more and more people into the whole process of this referendum. I dont know what the final poll is going to be, and incidentally, if the poll is relatively low, this favors brexit rather than remain, because on the whole, the brexit people are more infused, more determined, and more inclined to vote. Francine a disclaimer, hes pro brexit. Tom i noticed that. Even i figured that out on a friday after cinco de mayo. One final question very quickly, did the president of the United States assist the Prime Minister, or did the president assist your brexit side . John well, its interesting to see what the polls tell us about this, which was that i think a lot of people on the brexit side feared that president obama weighing in the way he did was going to have quite a big now peoples voting intentions, but it doesnt appear from the polls that wee seen that it really impacts much at all. Ainge lot of people felt that weve been told from the outside what to do. As many as were swayed by what he said. Tom john mills, thank you so much. Most illuminating. Thank you, thank you, thank you. John mills supporting a zphue different united kingdom. Bill gross and jim glassman to join us in the 8 00 hour later. But first, bill will join from us citigroup, get an update on a most interesting international economics, including new lower german rates. And Michelle Meyer on the American Economy this jobs day. Tom it is jobs day. Francine lacqua in london. Im in new york. We welcome all of you. Well do economics, finance, international relations. But what were really going to do is helicopters today. Heres michael mckee. Helicopter report. Michael its bill gross number one topic for his investor news letter this month. Hes talking about the concept first put forth by Milton Friedman that Central Banks could aid in the expansion of economy by absorbing the debt that a country puts forward. The United States could sell bonds, use the proceeds to increase employment, and then the fed would just buy those and hold them or write it off. Tom whats the price on the back end of that . Michael inflation. Heres where gross says the great thing is we have no inflation. If you print a lot of money, you get inflation, and thats what Central Banks want right now. Whats interesting is hes not basing this call for helicopter money on the idea that we should that we have a problem in the economy. What hes talking about is were losing jobs. He sent along a graphic that shows the number of people who are working in the age between 25 and 54 continuing to go down from 82 to 78 over the last couple of years much thats because robots are taking their jobs. People wont have jobs in the future. You got to found a way to pay them. Tom you know what were really doing is advancing what olivia talked about four, five, six years ago when ben bernanke spoke to the japan in 2003 to 2005, which is this is nothing more than bold reflation. Michael its basically monetizing your debt. He thinks the japanese are going to do it anyway because theres no way they can pay back the bonds that the bank of japan owns right now. He suggests maybe the United States, maybe the e. C. B. Wants to look at Something Like this, because at some point you got to find a way to keep the people who lose their jobs to rebots, their heads above water. You got to come up with something, what hes calling the universal basic income, which he suggests is something that we are going to have to go to, not might want to, but have to go to, because too many people wont be able to find jobs. How do you pay for it . You use helicopter money. Francine i find that crazy. Im trying to think of the thought process. If you do helicopter money, it could be quite badly taken by Central Banks. Hes talking about the millennials. You give them helicopter money so they spend, although they dont have a jobs because robots are taking their jobs . Michael exactly. Thats his idea. Francine isnt that welfare . Michael its not like the traditional labor force where people lose jobs and find jobs in other fields. They wont be able to find jobs because the robots took them. Francine but thats the welfare system n. Europe, if youre unemployed, you go to the dole and get money for that. Its not different than helicopter money, and it doesnt freak out the markets. Michael the difference in this case is that the money is just printed. It doesnt have to be paid for. You can raise taxes and, of course, you look at the european countries, just like the United States, running deficits because they have these social programs. That doesnt look good to the markets. That doesnt look good to the politicians. But if the Central Banks monetize the money and it just goes away, the debt, then he says theres no problem. Except inflation and, of course, we dont have to worry about that right now. Tom i look, michael, at what were going to see at 8 30 this morning. I believe there are selected jobs shortages in the country, and yet theres x number of million people, as mr. Gross alludes to, that arent employed. Gauge for us the job inequality right now in america versus where we were five years ago. Michael the way you were holding your hands shows it perfectly. Jobs are being created at the high end, the well trained. And youve got a lot of jobs at the low end, the mcdonalds jobs, hamburger flippers as they call them. Its the people in the middle that are not being hired, the former production workers who have lost jobs to greater efficiency. Tom we see trump, we see sanders, and yet we see an Unemployment Rate that any president would take a massive victory lap on. Its the oddest time. Michael it is. One of the reasons is because people drop out of the labor force. They cant find jobs, so theyve gone on disability or theyve just dropped out. The question is, would they come back if jobs are available . Alan kruger was with us on radio today, and he said no, they wont. Tom we have him today . Michael he says they wont come back. Thats a big debate. Francine mike, when we look at the u. S. Jobs data today, are robots already having an impact . We know all this technology is having an impact on productivity. Michael definitely they are. You look at the Auto Industry as an example number one. The number of cars being sold is at the highest level ever, and yet were seeing declines in the number of autoworkers, because companies have gone to robots so much. Gross argument is this is whats going to happen in a lot of other industries. He even sees it happening in service industries, happening in medicine and law, lots of areas you dont think ordinary up would be affected. Tom you stayed up all night once, the predators win, and youre snapping this morning. Michael wait till we get to the Kentucky Derby, and hock any the same breath. Tom this is very cool. Michael mckee with bill gross, well do that later at the 8 30 hour. Well do that as we do it always on an 8 00 a. M. Hour of jobs day. James glassman will join us to give us the market data, the market economics. And then a conversation on television and radio worldwide with bill gross on jobs day, bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Jobs day, yields lower in germany. Francine in london, im tom keene in new york. Right now to our Bloomberg Business flash. Thanks, tom. The german chemical maker is close to buying materials and additive units from air products and chemicals. According to people familiar with the matter, the deal would be valued at 3. 5 billion. Earlier this week, evonics c. E. O. Assured investors the company would not overpay for assets. More job cuts on the way at Goldman Sachs security unit. Goldman will eliminate roughly 10 of the jobs in fixed income. The c. E. O. Is undertaking the firms biggest costcutting effort in years because of a slump in trading and deal making. And General Motors is teaming up with lift to test a fleet of electric, selfdriving taxis, according to the wall street journal. The move is seen as a challenge to both good and he will uber. The partnership will test public roads. A few months ago, g. M. Invested 500 million in lyft. And that is the Bloomberg Business flash. Tom . Tom very good. It is a wonderful time across all of america, particularly kentucky. This saturday marks the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, the longest running sport event in the United States dating back to 1875. With us this morning are the geniuses from last year. Did you guys pick the triple crown . I dont think so. Tom ok. I did you not pick it either. Peter is with us. Peter and lee, who really had a lot of fun with this. 37year drop, what does the dustry do after the magic of of american fare snow its pretty tough. After 37 years of not having the triple crown, and now tom am i going to wait until 2052 . Well, i dont think its going happen this year. Tom ok. I think its a wideopen field. Theres a big favorite. Hes underseeded. He won five races as a 2yearold, two times as a 3yearold. And hes rode by a horse named uncle moe. He ran in the 2011 derby and finished out of the money, but hes been a great sire. But for the distance, we dont know. Hes the first crop of 3yearolds this year, so we dont know. Both horses, nyquist and outwork, won at a mile and an eighth. But this is unknown territory. Francine you know theres a surveillance horse. Its called sudden breaking news. I know the odds are 201, but this is us. This is who were talking about. Lee, when you look at the total numbers of people attending the Kentucky Derby, 150,000 last year, are we expecting even more people this year . I dont think there will be more than 150,000. Last year, they were really, you know, it was great, because American Pharoah was the big talk, and this year its wide open. We dont know whats going to happen. But i think youll still get a good crowd. Francine yeah, when you look at breeders around the world, i know this is probably the most watched 12minute horserace. Here in europe, we have the irish great breeders and also some of the middle eastern countries. Who are the strongest horse breeders around the world . Well, in the in the middle east, they have a lot of big breeders, shagwell stables, this have a breeding. Im not surhoff the top of my head whos in the ranking of the breeders. Tom help me with what we see. Theres nothing like this, and then how many horses will line up at the gate . 20 horses. Tom 20 horses. Who decides which jockey gets on which horse . Well, the trainer usually corresponds he talks to the owners, and they decide on which jockey is going to ride. Tom so the jockeys know right now which horse theyre going to get . Oh, yes, yes. Tom within that, a wideopen field, the idea of the jockey making the difference this year must be front and center. Well, theyre all great jockeys. I mean, all 20 of them all the topnotch jockeys, and some of them have won the Kentucky Derby before, like gary stevens, whos the jockey on the horse that i like, number 17, more spirit, and, you know, theyre all primed, great riders. Tom for the Kentucky Derby, this is what the pros use. This is the daily racing forum. To me its in greek. But lee davis look how its marked up. I mean, there is a document worth millions, i say billions of dollars right now. Francine, jump in here. Francine we talk about asset return, and whats amazing when you look at these horses, how much are these horses worth, and how much can they expect to win . I know in a year they can win up to 2 million, 3 million. How much does it take to buy one of these horses . Sometimes as little as 10,000, 15,000 if you get lucky. In this race, theres a horse that they paid 2. 2 million for. That doesnt give the horse an advantage when hes running. Hes just bred well. You know, sometimes that will, you know, sometimes that will, people just give the that watch thinking that thats the best horse because they paid the most money. Tom i got 100 bucks. What do die . Ok, this is it. 20 on more spirit. Bob baffert is going to try to make it two in a row. He won with American Pharoah. Hes going to come right back. Did he that in 1997 and 199 with silver charm. Hes going to try to do it again. I want to make a 1 trifecta box. These are the numbers, 3, 6, 10, 17, and 18. Thats a 60 bet. Tom there it is. You heard it here. Gentlemen, thank you so much. We have another hour coming up. Willem will join us and Michelle Meyer will join us. Stay with us. Its jobs day. Tom this morning yields drive ever lower. At new record lows. It is jobs day. It is america. And speaker ryan considers mr. Trump. We consider a fractured gop. Good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance. From our World Headquarters in new york. Im tom keene, with francine makua in london. We need to turn to jobs day. With Francine Lacqua in london. We need to turn to jobs day. Say ite most economists may persuade them to look at chairs a live meeting for yellen. Lets look at wage growth and , and inn in australia that part of the region, and how they match up. Tom we will do this in the data check. , out lowerds driving in the last 18 hours. There is nejra cehic. Early results are in from the British Regional and local election. Nationalists are on course for a Third Straight victory in scotland. Nicholas spurgeon will extend her term. Jeremy corbyns real test labor suffered losses and had a mixed picture in england. It was an Extraordinary Development involving the likely republican candidate for president and the republican leader of the house. Paul ryan says he is not ready to support donald trump yet. And ryans words, i am just not there right now. Trump fired back with an inability to follow ryans agenda. They are scheduled to meet next week. More than 80,000 people have Fort Mcmurray mcmurray. The fire may turn out to be the costliest catastrophe in canadas history. Insurance losses may go over 7 billion. Oilsands producers have been forced to cut their output by 14 . Vladimir putin will have a rare meeting with shinzo abe, who is breaking the russian president s isolation today. He will meet with Vladimir Putin in the black sea of sochi. A Japanese News Service reported president obama asked abe not to make the trip. It is a trial made for hollywood. The issue, whether 92yearold media mogul Sumner Redstone was mentally competent when he threw his next when he threw his exgirlfriend out of his house. The verdict could end up deciding who controls his stakes in cbs and viacom. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus i am nejraworld, cehic. Tom . Tom lets get through the data checks and get to professor buiter. Professor i would note nymex, churned. Oil not affected, i would to just. To the next screen, quickly. German twoyear yields. 0. 51. That was a 0. 4 924 hours ago. , stronger euro against the swiss franc. Francine i want to show you japan. 0690 seems one point to be a little bit off. They are set for the biggest weekly loss. Tom we begin jobs day coverage. Bill gross and jim glassman will join us later this morning. Economics,on our Willem Buiter of citigroup. The most important thing to me, i guess it is like my sister leicester city. You were an outlier. All of a sudden Everybody Loves ester city. Ic what did you see quarters ago on global slowdown that others were missing . The two main engines of the largest economies were in neutral gear, the u. S. , and china. The u. S. Is slightly slower than i expected at the time, and china, despite the artificial to putat they managed into activity in the First Quarter, thanks to the credit bubble. And some oldfashioned stimulus. Nothing has changed. Tom what has changed in the last 18 hours is another dash to lower yields in germany. What is the instability that we will see in markets if the german twoyear does break down to record low negative yields . Willem this is simply part of the new normal. Markets should get particularly upset about it. Tom we should see banking instability with that we should see banking stability even with the lower negative rates . Willem it will still be a problem. It is only because there is this point you at some start squeezing the banks. But i do nothing we are there yet. Francine overall, you are more optimistic about world growth. You say that recent data suggesting that at least for now this comes at a time when forecasters are downgrading their gdp forecasts. Why so . Willem we actually have growth this year lower than last year in our forecast. We recognize correctly that the growth has bottomed out for the time being, but i expect that thischina gets out of artificial stimulus phase, the slowdown will go further. Commodity prices have stabilized, so we are not looking at anything dramatic. I think we are going to look at an extended joe of growth, and expended period of growth. Not much more than 2 at Market Exchange rates. Francine are you seeing more risk in the second half of the year, or are you seeing global risks receiving a little bit . Willem oh, no, i think global risks are going to be with us in the first half of the year. In europe there is a material risk now of the deal between europe and turkey breaking down because of the situation in , abal leadership in the u. S. In two of the remaining three candidates for the presidency. I am protectionist. There is enough to be nervous about in the second half of the year. Tom i need to reframe the scale of your academics. Through the doors, you wanted by the eight foot grizzly bear. You were livid over our International Assumptions of economics. Lets back up. 2005, Benjamin Bernanke goes to tokyo and lectures the japanese on reflation. It did not happen. Five or six years ago, Olivier Blanchard has the courage to talk about reflation, 3 or 4 . He got crucified for that. Now we have bill gross writing about helicopter money. You are one of the worlds authorities on this. Are you kidding me . Helicopter money is in the textbooks you studied as a kid . Willem oh, yes. A description for a combined market fiscal stimulus. It is a cute example of a particular kind of stimulus. Tom they take over fiscal policy. Willem that is why it is not going to happen that way. Concept,for the mental fiscal stimulus to put cash in peoples pockets, or public spending on infrastructure instead of selling debt. Tom back to mcchesney martin. Do we go to Central Bank Independence by the boldness of this policy echo willem not at all. The Central Banks should have the right to say no. Independent central bank has the right to say no. They also have the right to say yes. Whether they say yes or no should depend on how the economy is performing. In the case of the u. S. , with inflation still below target and some slack left to the economy, there is a case for the combined march fiscal stimulus. A thunderinge is case. It is not difficult. Francine will we see more negative rates before they try helicopter money . Willem probably, because the combined fiscal stimulus is politically difficult in most parts of the world. In the u. S. You cannot do it congressionalis gridlock. In europe you have to do it through the back door. In japan, there seems to be weird objections to it from the side of the ministry of finance. Attitudespublic towards monetizing debt and deficit. Possible,technically but the politics just do not line up. I think what we will see therefore is further rate cuts, ineffective in terms of stimulating the amount, but they will have their effect on asset pricing. Francine more negative rate cuts that will be taken by the markets as something terrible because of the side effect, or will they actually have some positive impact on these economies . Willem rate cuts, whether they are more negative or positive to a less positive level, as in australia, have a very liberal impact on activity, even though they will impact asset markets still, including the exchange rate. But the exchange rate, which is the main mechanism of the moment for monetary policy, and stocks these things are zero sum globally. Tom the complexity of this is wonderful. I love what you say about china, a thundering case for reflation policies. We will come back with Michelle Meyer, bank of America Merrill lynch. Later, in the 8 00 hour, James Glassman of j. P. Morgan chase, and bill gross. We will talk to him about the fed, about sikorsky helicopters, and about a stamp collection. Bloomberg surveillance. Francine welcome back. I am Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. It is a jobs day, but we also need to look at corporate. Here is nejra cehic. Nejra First Quarter profit at arsenal or mattel. At arcelormittal. Geneva, prosecutors are widening their investigation into credit squeeze and one of its former wealth managers. That is according to people familiar with the matter. Prosecutors have identified three more former employees as suspects in an unauthorized trading case. Involves the accounts of rich Eastern European spear General Electric is hunting for acquisitions in the struggling oil and gas industry. Cfo Jeff Bernstein tells Bloomberg Radio that ge has been that twofor Businesses Companies were preparing to sell. Tom you have been having a we have been having a fabulous conversation with phil about citigroup on helicopter money, which is all with Willem Buiter of citigroup on helicopter money. Immense caution on the optimism in america. Michelle meyer joins us now. She has gone multifamily and has done a lot of study. Here she is looking out of her new condo. She sent along a new photo. This is great, michelle. You wrote a brilliant part of your Research Paper on the mass distortion, like jobs day, that we see in multifamily. Multifamily is doing great, but it is not condos in nashville like 20 years ago. Michelle we can all look at the breakdown tom it is not what we knew years ago. Downlle if you break it to state level or msa level, what you will see is a real concentration of the multifamily building in certain cities. 55 of multifamily construction we have seen has been in 20 msas. That is at a historical high, significantly what we saw significantly above what we saw tom it harkens back to the boom of acres of condos 30 and 40 years ago. How will the inequality manifest itself in this mornings jobs report . Michelle this speaks to the type of building we have seen across top cities, more luxury buildings. The average size of the new Single Family home reached a new record after the great recession. So the type of construction we have seen has been targeted toward higher income individuals. Have seen to a certain extent which growth increase more for those who are higher skilled, Higher Education , but generally speaking i think the job growth we have been experiencing has been pretty widespread. Francine, the Economic Policy Institute Website has a phenomenal description of this in america. As michelle said, the polarity of 6 plus wage growth for the great middle speaks to trump and sanders and corbin, it is just not there. It is different for apartments because you share a basement or the like. Michelle, you were talking about the great inequality and the fact that there are two bank many luxury apartments instead of multifamily. Will that change . If so, what will be the catalyst . Anhelle there is still upside to multifamily building, but it will not be as fast as it was at the beginning part of the recovery. I will anticipate that this year 5 ,ifamily will start down part of the reason being because of people rushing to get their projects done. But looking to next year, we resume a stronger trend. Ultimately we still get to an equilibrium where multifamily construction is going to be multiple is going to be notably higher than it was in the 2000s or even in the late 1990s. But it will take us longer to get there because the gains we have seen so far are so concentrated at the top market. Francine i imagine it is a lot like the u. K. , where new york and washington, d. C. , and the west coast, feels very different from the rest of the United States. Michelle very much so. That is where you see all the cranes,. It is for good reason. There has not been a shift toward more urban living. People want to be close to the city centers. Tom we are thrilled that both of you are on with two Different Bank shops. I want to know when the u. S. Economy clicks after a dreadful First Quarter. Are we seeing better Economic Growth . Willem we will see. Todays payroll is going to be important if we get something probably means it is a lagging indicator, and the First Quarter was terrible, and you cannot blame it on the , as if because historically mild winters affect gdp growth. Policy uncertainty has been up so much. Tom we have to go to break here. It is a most interesting jobs day. Michelle meyer is with us from bank of America Merrill lynch, and professor buiter from citigroup. s chairman of the president s council on economic advisers. Will we see a lower Unemployment Rate, and 8 30 . This is bloomberg surveillance. Francine i am Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. This is what i picked for our morning mustread. S is david focus landau david full kurtz landau he says francine Willem Buiter from citigroup is still with us. His main point is that basically so itb is doing too much, structural reform or encourage fiscal spending, so it is the ecbs fall. Is not the ecbs fall. They have to do what they can. It is the political classes in europe who are not providing the necessary fiscal stimulus and are not engaged instructional reform. The ecb makes it easier for politicians to sit on their haunches, but it is simply not the ecbs problem. They have a very clearly defined objectives, and they are trying to achieve it. Francine and also, when you listen to mario draghi, he says i am giving you a government when it will, so use it wisely. Michelle it is definitely willem it is definitely not the ecbs fall. It is the political classes that have continued to do so. No fiscal stimulus, minimal reform, and a lot of talk, and indeed verbal abuse at times of mr. Draghi. It is very undeserving. Francine thank you so much, Willem Buiter. Coming up on bloomberg markets,. T is Mohamed Elerian that is at 11 00 a. M. In new york, 4 00 p. M. In london. It is jobs day. A lot of the markets around the world are taking it in their stride, selling off a little bit , futures at the negative. Jobs day. It is Francine Lacqua with tom keene. Lets get to bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. Nejra in the u. K. , voters in global and Regional Elections gave no sign they are ready to defy their leaders and leave the european union. David cameron posco conservative party appears to be on the brink David Camerons conservative party appears to be on the brink of picking up seats. Extend hergeon will term as they head of their semiautonomous government. And we will learn who will be the mayor of london later today. North koreas meeting gives kim jongun a further chance to solidify his grip on the country. He came to power five years ago after the death of his father, kim jongil he may focus on Economic Growth and military strength. Ceasefire in syria seems to be holding. It was designed to halt the fighting in aleppo. Hundreds of civilians have been killed in the city in the last two weeks. The ceasefire is scheduled to end tonight. U. S. Officials would like to see it continue. Oilussias forecast on prices is right, the budget deficits in the country will last to the end of the decade, according to a new Bloomberg Survey of economists. Oil will average 40 a barrel theugh 2019 and said governments books will balance until 2020 or later. Vladimir putins government is seeking fiscal savings of one percentage point of gdp to balance the budget within three years. Must has done it again. For the second time in eight months, spacex has landed a rocket on an ocean platform. The booster touchdown on a barge in the atlantic after launching a Japanese Communications satellite. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i am nejra cehic. Tom . Tom the critics love to take. Hots, mr. Musk that is way cool, bringing a rocket down onto a platform. Right now we have a way cool single best chart. Lets look at gdp of Michelle Meyer with Michelle Meyer. This is clinton, trump, do something. This is a one year moving average of gdp. In the good old days it was 4 , 3. 9 . Right now, it is 2 . We are here. How do you jumpstart that back to where mr. Trump and mrs. Clinton want it . Michelle we may not be able to get back to 4 growth. In an economy where productivity growth is weak, potential growth is lower. We have to reset expectations, and i think that has happened over the years. Our forecast, we will be running at 1 growth over the year. Tom not 2 growth. Willem high runners, yes. Tom where to the optimist get it wrong . It is wage growth, isnt it . Finding fewerare and fewer people who are strictly in the optimism crew, forecasting something in the high 2 , low 3 . Recovery, there was demand that would start to show soon, and it has not manifested. Tom i want to get back to the conversation we had on ndau, paying attention to the moving of money around the world. In our new economy, do capital flows matter like they mattered in 1890 or the keynesian 1936 . They move so fast. Willem they still matter, clearly. Countries who run clandestine to capital flows matter, but they are part of the story. The fundamental story is about productivity gross productivity growth and demographics. Francine do we worry too much about productivity . We talk about it at least twice a week. Here in the u. K. We talked about it, in the u. S. The world is changing. How we shop is changing. We need to acknowledge it and move on. It does not mean productivity cannot be rising. Even in a world dominated by robots were nobody has a job, productivity can be rising very fast. New technology, new ideas, new products, new processes, and it is very surprising that in a world where there is so much innovation going on, so much new knowledge being created, the , growth isage rising. It is simply low investment. And lack of education is frustrating. That is the fundamental problem. It is not being addressed. Francine what concerns you the that is it the fact Central Banks are not spurring monetary inflation . Is at the low nominal gdp worldwide . Andem the lack of demand alaska of and the lack of fiscal stimulus. The is the demand side of story, and on the supply side, threat off the protectionism, lack of investment skills, that is the supply step. Stimulus, intelligent fiscal stimulus, supported by money creation. Tom michelle, bring this around. You mentioned productivity earlier. David stockman wrote a classic David Stockman rambling note about reagan and trump and what trump gets right or wrong. But in the middle of it was a fabulous three paragraphs on the lack of quality of our american jobs. We are going to create 180, who knows, standard deviation, 220,000 jobs today . Are they good, productive jobs for the nation and the individual who holds that job . Michelle this question always comes up and people look at the share or lower skills. It has been a case that in this environment, this recovery, hard time as a share of the total workforce parttime as a share of the total workforce has been falling. We have been seeing a shift toward more fulltime hiring, it is just taking longer in this cycle. In terms of overall productivity of those jobs, clearly we can see from the productivity numbers we are receiving, productivity is pretty weak right now. Too not know if that speaks the quality of labor as it does to the inefficiency gains of the capital, the next stage, where you have the technological advances acting up the amount of production you can have per labor. Francine if you think it is abnormal in this current cycle, do you think it will go back to how it was, or will we go back to the kind of cycle, or is this once again the new normal because we count things differently . To acknowledgeve the structural changes of this new normal, but we have always managed to exceed expectations in terms of the new innovation and productivity. There is this idea of potential gdp is time varying. You have shortterm changes in gdp due to structural adjustments and things like regulatory changes, and as you look further when you start to see perhaps new technological advancements, you can realize a higher trajectory for production growth. Francine stay with us. If you look at some of these european stocks, they are seeing the worst weekly drop since the turmoil we saw in january. That is ahead of the allimportant u. S. Jobs data. Tom what a most interesting washington right now. What a most interesting america. We have the jobs report and 8 30, but the backdrop is politics and a Republican Party in shock. Good morning, Francine Lacqua in london. I am tom keene in new york. Futures negative five, dow futures 37. My morning mustread is a little confusing. Always hitting the ball out of the park writing for the New York Times, a fabulous article. Quote is from senator reid of nevada. Tom this is a great article. The is great here is not polarities that we are facing. It is the many polarities. James manley is a democratic ,trategist in washington obviously in support of secretary clinton. I am absolutely flabbergasted, of the lastrhetoric one he four hours. Lets start with the basic. Have you ever seen this before . Jim absolutely not. To be clear, i spent six years working for senator reid as a spokesman, so when i saw that line lest my, i said bravo, well done, senator. The answer to your question is no. An increasingly chaotic political situation, the rhetoric in this current day is way over the top. Never seen anything like it. The over the top, what is the miss what is the to do list for mr. Trump . What are the best political practices donald trump has to do right now . Jim the New York Times had a story yesterday about how his to do list begins with going to a couple of fabulous parties and finishing up by building a wall by the end of 100 days. He has absolutely no idea of the requirements that go into trying to get legislation done, not only shortterm or longterm. He thinks he is going to call people down to the white house, a fabulous oval office, i believe he described it, and sit down and hash out a deal. That is not going to happen. Not only is it not going to happen with republicans, but certainly not with the democrats as well. He has no idea what he is talking about, absolutely none. Francine could the democrats have put more policies in place to fight inequality . This is rife in america. It explains so much of what we are seeing in the political spectrum nowadays. Jim it really does, francine. They could have, but you have to remember, our policy people hate when i say this sometimes but our policies are hamstrung by the total obstructionist actions of the republicans. In this day and age in the senate, you need 60 votes to get anything done, so you always want to hit the long ball. The most robust package as possible. But the political reality is, especially with ehouse dominated by the tea party, you have to play small with the house dominated by the tea party, you have to play small ball. Francine i understand the difficulty in the political system in the last couple of years in the u. S. , but is that something easy that the democrats could have done differently to reduce inequality . Jim i do not blame you for asking the question, but again, as an insider watching the senate closely, i do not believe so. A very modest proposal to take a minimum wage to the floor would have been filibustered quicker than you know what. Again, it is something we need to address. The need is obviously there, and probably more importantly, the American People are demanding action on it. But again, until the political dynamic changes, until the hyper partisanship that dominates washington goes away, it is going to be difficult to address this stuff. Tom political small ball. Of 1972 at the auto the at the oddity of 1972. What the secretary Kerry Clinton what the secretary clinton need to do to get the delegate votes in ohio . Jim the traditional swing state , whose policies have been hammered in part by trade issues people are upset. They think they are being taken advantage of, and they want a government that is fighting for them. A different approach to trade policy probably is a willingness to stand up to the chinese when a smart to steal is move. Those are two that come to mind. So jim manley, thank you much, working on the democratic side of the fence this morning. Have not seen anything like what we have seen in the last 18 or 24 hours in the american political discourse. I think we could use the word forever. They will continue to analyze forever, and they do it very well. John heilemann and Mark Halperin , with all due respect. I had too much of a single demaio. It is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Jobs day. Francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. Right to the forex report. 1. 07. Eurosterling, to help francine with her shopping this weekend, francine coming up shortly, bloomberg with david westin and Jonathan Ferro. David, it is jobs day so you look at markets. David it is jobs, jobs, jobs. We will be joined by some pretty great people. We will have alan krueger, from princeton university. We will have howard ward, the ceo of gamco. We will be simulcasting with tom and surveillance on radio. Then we will check in with jason parkman, chair of the White House Council of tom Willem Buiter is with us from citigroup. Michelle meyer from bank of America Merrill lynch. And carl riccadonna. What are you going to this morning . Carl normally i go beneath the surface. This is not one of those reports. We see the economy in a threequarter deceleration. Things look not so good, and understatement for the First Quarter. Consumer spending was lousy, growth was lousy. All we need now is an all clear from the labor market that the pace of hiring is holding up. Normally i am pushing an angle of look beneath the headline change. This time around, the check engine light is on and we need to know the labor engine is firing. Tom do we assume the Unemployment Rate comes down . Path down, is it a good glide path down, or is it for bad reasons . L absolutely is a absolutely it is a good glide path down. If we move below 5 , that will be the economy moving below the neutral level of unemployment, and the stagnant wage story will finally come to an end as well as that happens. But at this point the on employment rate does not matter. Focus on the payroll gains. We need to know that the labor markets have not succumbed to the sluggishness we have seen elsewhere in the economy. Francine what is the magic number for the markets to shift their expectations of a fed rate hike in june . Carl i think june is really a big reach, so if june is realistically in play, not theoretically in play, as policy makers have been saying, i think 300,000 today for jen to be on the table. I do not see a scenario where that is possible. Conversely, if we are below 250,000, there will be the a key point in the fed the statement, they said everything is weak in this sector and that sector, but Household Income growth is strong, and that means Consumer Spending will lift us out of this morass. We need to see job gains closer to 200,000 for validation of that view. Tom Michelle Meyer, here is the chart where we migrate down here. A lot of americans feel miserable, but i am struck by, this ought to be the firm in victory lap, the obama victory lap. Why are we so miserable with this absolute stunning success . Michelle you do need to decompose the jobs and the Unemployment Rate between the job creation and the labor force. Part of the reason the Unemployment Rate has fallen so quickly is that the labor force has dropped. In the last six months, the labor force has increased again, which means it is actually it has prevented the bigger jobs and the unemployed and rate. Tom these are assumptions. Labor situation we are in now . Up to very recently, real wages are barely rising. We are seeing a world where not just employment has been growing, but real wages are rising. This economy is still growing. I have doubts about the durability, given the performance of the last few quarters, but, yes, the u. S. Is not the primary candidate for a helicopter money. Or for monetized fiscal stimulus. But it certainly could use another kick on the demand side, yes. Illem, when you talk about wage growth, it has kicked up a little bit. But what do we need to do to see real wage growth . Willem where are seeing will we are seeing real wage growth. Nominal wage growth, headline inflation is more than 1 . Real rates are rising. Francine not enough for janet yellen to want to raise rates. Real wages can rise without there being inflationary pressure. You have to differentiate. There is still slack in the economy. Real wages are rising, and the has beenlabor increasing recently. Not very much, and the trend can be reversed down again, no doubt. But this figure is looking better in the labor market. Tom michelle, i have one minute left. Doubt believe in the Robert Gordon and northwestern has, that are better days are behind us . Is quite an impact professor gordon has had. Michelle he has had a lot of attention over that, saying productivity growth is lower and we are on a Slower Growth trajectory. Time will tell. In the near term we have to accept the low productivity environment. Carl that is an important point we are still in the hangover of the recession. Willem you have not begun to see the impact of artificial intelligence, robotics, bioengineering, and all that. Listeninghe person thinks that will take jobs from us. Willem they will. Tom carl riccadonna, thank you. Michelle meyer, thank you. , thank you forr your comments on reflation. Later today, bill gross and jim glassman will join us. Stay with us worldwide, this american jobs day. ai david jobs friday. Criticsts sai jobs rose. Jonathan a hike at next months meeting. Global equities retreat. Wifi finds Goldman Sachs cuts operations to 10 of its staff. David welcome to bloomberg. Here withwestin Jonathan Ferro and megan murphy. It is a treat to have you because all eyes are on washington. The big story is the jobs report out in 90 minutes. Jonathan it is the most important jobs day until the next one. Guests a great list of including our kruger and bill gross coming up after the numbers break in 90in