of annual visit on the state induction. energy is front and center. we're in davos. and daniel juergen, together. and michael mckee, talk about ripping up the script. argentina and the emerging markets are front and center for everyone in doubles. >> in terms of emerging markets, a lot going on. we will talk about that in a moment for it let's start with energy. it is 11 degrees in new york. natural gas prices are heading for a fourth day high. the biggest weekly gain since 2012. meteorologists predict temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the month. it will be cold when you get back. not much else going on. we do have some earnings before the bell that will matter. procter and gamble, xerox, and honeywell. also, a look echo what might have been. >> we have to get straight to the data check grid the red is stunning. it is not just emerging currencies, but global stocks. >> a lot of concern about what is going on in china. s&p 500 futures are down by almost 7/10 of one percent. it gets worse. where's that money going? remember when i said that bonds were stuck in a range? the euro is falling a little bit on the back of some is putting economic news. crude oil is down a little bit. good news there. we do not see as much of an effect from the weather. here's the real story. currencies are reflecting problems. a few days ago. now it is one of two. china's problems are having others. the aussie dollar is down one percent. you can see it in other colors -- countries. terrorism concerns, down against the dollar again. >> approaching a low, the russian ruble. it all comes back to the global selloff. the emerging markets is where it started. you have zeroed in on the argentinian peso. >> it was a great data check there. mike knows from covering these crises that when do things lock in together? begino they pull and and to react as one market mass? in that data check, i saw a little bit. when you see the 10 year yields go lower and higher in price as you see the distortion of the turkish and the argentinian and you see gold go higher, we see that correlation. >> it is related to the fed in tapering. coming out of those emerging markets, it has to go somewhere. it is not going into equities right now. it goes into ron's and money market funds. >> manufacturing is also continuing. >> a lot of things in play at the moment. >> a lot of forces at play. let's move onto to our second front-page story. what about microsoft? it is rising in premarket trading after they posted -- theyhey posted posted record sales. >> did you get one? >> too expensive. the fourthcan on quarter. clout software also did well. is that a record. >> we all thought of microsoft as an operating company. windows did lousy. they sold more tablets. i still have not seen one on the street. >> they are in transition mode. everyone is waiting for a word on what will happen with their see suite. who will replace steve ballmer. they continue to search for a replacement. jamie dimon of jpmorgan is getting a raise one year after his pay was docked because of the london whale fiasco. the new york times says that the board voted to boost his compensation. the meetings were heated at times. >> didn't they pay $20 billion in fines? >> more than $20 billion in fines. that was for old problems. >> there was a chef who continually sell his restaurant to find for unsanitary conditions. would you continue to spend money there and give that chef a raise? >> investors seem to love jamie dimon. isn't he at davos as well? have you run into him? >> he is more than that the parties. i spoke with him last night. he greeted all of davos. if you could get in the door, standing next to him was prime minister blair of the united kingdom. i talked to tony blair about british history. mr. dimon and i'm a late conversation about changes in. davos this year. he did not bring up his compensation package. >> that would be uncouth. >> the champagne was very good. >> actions speak louder than words. those are our front page stories. our guest is contributing editor david plouffe. let's go back to the jamie dimon story. despite being at a party and paying for champagne, he has kept a fairly low profile. no headlines generated from his appearance. trust is a big topic. mike mentioned $20 million in fines and settlements that he paid. what does he need to do to regain trust? he obviously has investor trust. >> they are they put this behind them. that is the key thing. have they paid all of the fines? are they out of the trouble? >> they always have more fines. >> more problems coming, more investigations. i will be tough. if they have put this behind them, then there's a strategy. they have to reboot and move beyond. that is what they're hoping. >> they may put it behind them as far as regulators, but what about the general public? isn't this a broader issue for members of congress? americans do not see themselves getting a raise. they have to be outraged by something like this. you see a naked populism up there. all over incomes. >> there's populism and the republican party as well. that will be an important story. you will see more and more. most people -- a lot have not recovered from the recession. many people feel at their running in place. they see behavior on wall street as a cheap intruded to the recession. there at a record high. these folks are working higher and higher. their wages are stagnant. >> do we end up like ukraine? or do we end up like teddy roosevelt in the early 1900? , whatt voters want to see americans want to see, is opportunity. this that thing is, there are a lot of people who do not believe that the american dream is obtainable. they need to obtain their education through manufacturing. more importantly, their kids can get ahead. you will see a lot of unrest. we have had a lot of turbulent elections. we may see more of that. people should feel that they have people in charge who are moving not just the country, but giving them opportunities. >> we do have a headline crossing now. it is about argentina. the paste it was getting hammered the last couple of days. they have currency controls in place to drive people out of the dollar and into the peso. they're lifting those controls and giving in. we will soon affect that has. >> continuing to spark more selling. we will keep an eye on them. let's get to company news as well. we will start with carl icahn. he says he is ready for a fight over ebay. he is telling the wall street journal that he expects ebay to resist his proposal that they split off of paypal. paypal sales have grown faster than the marketplace business. they have $70 billion in revenue. the founder of tesla motors says he may have to build cars in china. elon musk is telling bloomberg that sales of his model may match the u.s. as soon as next year. to startrequire him building cars there as well. fill that are boxer coming up short. -- sales at starbucks are coming up short. they say that internet shopping during the holidays and into traffic at malls. people were not refueling at starbucks. that is company is. tom, you are at davos. what do you have planned this morning. >> conversations with world leaders. robert shiller will join us. we will talk about any quality across america. and michael mckee and i are holding analysis of emerging markets and lower equity futures. from davos and new york, "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning. switzerland and the world economic forum meetings, it is "bloomberg surveillance." robert shiller is joining us now. worst job -- nothing worse than being a newly minted nobel prize laureate. everyone wants to speak to bob schiller. you have been coming here for many years. i have not seen you without a microphone stuck in front of you. how exhausting is it being a newly minted nobel prize winner? >> it came as a shock. i was already overcommitted. ittop of everything else -- is like suddenly i am so visible. people stop me on the street. it is fun, though. i recommend it. >> one of the things that we see in davos is the society here. the affluent, elite society. most of them have not read your finance. you have thought a lot about any quality. you have thought about how capitalism brings us to good society. does davos get passing grades? >> as the years go by, i find myself more admiring of davos. the business community is not always idealistic. the people here are on the idealistic, socially conscious side of business. that is the future, i think. we need people like this. >> how do you respond to conservatives in america and other nations who suggest the uncertainty that leads to a lack of investment and jobs, to a poor society, is due to government meddling and in treatment -- intrusion? do they score points with that debate? >> there is an element of truth to that. increasing regulation hurts business. on the other hand, regulation is part of the process of business innovation. usually, there are downsides to any innovation. there's going to be some trick that someone can play to abuse and savers. the government has to be there. quoted,ok that you just i put in regulators as part of finance. in fact, for a good career, i think my students spent a few years working at the fcc as part of your life mission and experience. >> your students are part of the lead. they were elite in high school and prep school. they were elite in junior high. for the rest of america, how do they do better? is it a government activism that willow america to improve? or is it about each individual community. >> it is all of those. inequality has a number of causes. one of the myst technology, which can sometimes leave groups behind. another is unmanaged risk. finance and insurance are about reducing certain causes of inequality. part of it has to do with the government. we do have a progressive tax system. we have the earned income tax credit. we know that it is not in anyone's interest to have the bottom half of the population struggling. billionaires to not want that. we are a society -- we all live by being part of it. >> i do not mean to pick on jamie dimon, but he is in the headlines over his compensation. and others, are they compensated too much? this is a simplistic debate that the needs a more sophisticated conversation. his jamie dimon paid too much? >> i will not comment on any one person. there is a crony affecting business. >> what is that? >> you use your friends on the board. they do you a favor. maybe you do them a favor. >> is that moving in the right direction? more or less crony? >> i suspect so. public attention is focused on them. the reforms that encouraged better -- >> when you win a nobel prize, do you get to leave here by helicopter? >> no. i was going to take the bus. yes, i found someone who put me in her limo. it was just purely on my reputation. >> there is an exclusive. schiller, not the train -- in a limo with the capitalist who just wanted to bump up next to the professor. wonderful to see you. always. that is the trick. i came in a surveillance helicopter. it is just as simple as this. andemics and capitalists ceos are bouncing off of each other. the markets on the move. we will have that in the moment. ♪ >> coming up, the ceo of goldman sachs will be sitting down with her and stephanie ruhle. that is coming up at 8:00 eastern. another all-star interview. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is time for the morning must-read. our guest is david plouffe. he has the selection. >> this is from the san jose news. it is about the voting commission. it says that ammunition and fight for voting rights. no american weights more than 30 minutes to vote. a lot of good advice in here for states. modernizing elections. this is important for young people who do not like to wait for anything. they use technology all day long. we have antiquated systems. hopefully this is embraced by both sides. >> who benefits more? >> the senses that democrats do. their early voting. shorter wait times. republican tactic appeal to young people. if people get the sense that republicans do not want them to vote, you will never get to first a's. >> southern states have that misperception. >> for democracy, we have to have a voting system. that should be ideal. >> can you envision when people will be able to vote through a mobile device? >> eventually, yes. whether five years, 10 years, 15 years. we do all of our financial transactions -- there are states that do their whole election by mail. states like oregon. you will see more than that. >> that is what young people want to see. >> you know that there will be a problem or you need extra poll workers. this is not a complicated set of problems. >> time to tune your attention to silicon valley. my morning must-read is from the new yorker. interviewing the president. he writes about how the president tends to focus on the long gain. it is something that everyone around obama trots out to combat hysteria. maddening and frustrating because the president knows how to excel in the short game. he did win elections. chooses a sense that he not to do what is necessary to win. what do you think? >> i have not spent a lot of time with him. even those elections -- we took the long view. i think that is one of his great strengths. it is inconsistent with the moment that we find ourselves in. we used to have one news cycle per day. now we have one news cycle every minute. when you take the long view, it is compensated. thatch of washington is people want to take political advantage. when you sit in the oval office, your first 40's to sell things. that tends to be -- when you go through crisis, you can only focus on the long-term. when you think about health care or what you're trying to get done, you have to take the long view. >> people think of as disengaged. -- think of him as disengaged. >> that is not the case. no president is disengaged. you have problems all day coming to you. you have long-term things you're trying to accomplish. we learned that we have to modernize the government in many ways. >> david plouffe is our guest host. our twitter question of the day -- what was apple's greatest innovation? tweet us. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are in new york and tom is in davos, switzerland. we are keeping a close eye on the selloff in the market. >> this does matter. look at what is happening in the markets. s&p 500 futures are following the worst of the world down. it is getting worse. we will see what happens as liquidity picks up. we're getting closer to the open. it looks at another bad day on cap. where is the money going? look at the 10 year. interesting thing on the screen today -- nymex crude is only at $97. the thermostat went haywire. >> absolutely. i am looking at the market in europe. it is red. losing about 1.1%. in terms of big movers to watch, we wanted to highlight netflix. a record high after better-than-expected results. also, projections of growth that topped analyst estimates. >> what is record holding? you talk about netflix and the mitt romney document tree. maybe hillary clinton? maybe there's a link somehow? >> it was down 16% in trading. we went to head back to davos. david camera just sat down with francine lacqua. hear what he had to say. >> what we are seeing in britain is good economic news. we're seeing a growth in employment. the fastest growth and new jobs since records began. we are seeing good economic growth. we're seeing forecasts being raised. we need to make sure that it is sustainable and long-lasting and a recovery for all, north and south. rich and poor. we need to correct the problems in the past. fix the banks. that is all happening. that must eli focus. >> how concerned are you? policy is your new -- it is now uncertain. >> to be fair to the bank of england, he always said that these remarks were a threshold and not a trigger. i think that what he said yesterday is consistent with that. >> how can you persuade the north and the midland that they are part of the recovery? otherwise, it would be difficult to win another election. >> it is vital. i think you can see that in the transport infrastructure that we're building. the electrification and railway lines. investment in roads and ports. these are to make sure that every part of the country benefits from recovery. we want to see the fastest growth in jobs. there are good signs of progress. manufacturing and making more, supporting britain, will help to make sure this is a recovery for the whole country. that is the focus. >> you are confident that manufacturing will come back? >> what we are seeing is that there is a discernible presence of companies re-shoring and bringing back to britain some of their production. that will benefit the whole of the country. this is a small trend. if we take the right steps to keep our economy competitive and keep business and job taxes low, we could speed up the trend and see more work and jobs for people. that is what this is about. give people a piece of mind that a regular check brings. >> that was david cameron. francine is with us from davos. -analked about antonint -- anemic recovery. >> what i find fascinating is how the united kingdom is out front of what we have seen in the united date. it is great to see this. it is a mostly recurs or to wear we hope the united states will be. lois original about your conversation, with the prime minister? >> this is the lowdown. they have a problem convincing the market that rates are going to stay low. this is the forward guidance. people say it has to change. he says as soon as we hit seven percent, we will think about moving interest rates. we are very near that seven percent. they need to make sure that the markets will not start growing interest rates. >> what has been the reaction of people to the prime minister? what has been the response to his leadership? the surprise of 2013 was a better economy. >> the economy is firing on all cylinders. unemployment is doing better than expected. there is still not enough manufacturing. >> much like the united states. >> how do you go to escape the law city where you have a sustainable recovery not based on housing? this is london and the southeast. you have a to speed recovery. >> the british crystal ball is different than the u.s.. how has the governor been received? ofhe perceived as the bank england governor? >> he is perceived as the hero. there was so much hype. he entered in august of last year. he was hailed as the one who would save the economy. now he is seen as the person who is in the right place at the right time. >> what is prime minister cameron's message today? they all come in and talk about. what is his book? >> he talked about politics last year. he called a referendum. here, he told me he wants to talk to us. he has been meeting with investors. he has seen some chinese investors. he wants to get money in britain. >> michael mckee, you hear francine talking. how do you translate this dialogue over to where chairman yellen will be in six months or one year? >> that is a question i want to post to fran. you have this forward guidance. 6.5% threshold. we are at 6.7% unemployment. what is mark carney's alternative? is quites point, he veiled. they can lower the threshold or make absolutely sure that the market is at the threshold. it does not mean that we will raise interest rates. the other problem that the u.k. has is a strong sterling. pound, itave a strong hurts manufacturing. the recovery is there. there are a lot of unknowns. canur global audience -- you give us a summary of the timeline of taper and rate increases? where's consensus right now? >> the fed said that 2016 is when they would start raising interest rates. the markets have moved that up to 2015. some people are talking about the possibility of the end of this year. the taper will continue at a $10 million per month pace. that should be finished by the end of 2014. it will all depend on where the data takes us. >> that is one reason why the emerging markets continues to sell off. that is the broad force. >> interest rates are going up in the united states. that is pulling money out of the markets. >> these are just some of the conversations in davos. it is not all macroeconomics. there is some partying and letting loose. there is the awkward dancing taking place at the parties. if goldie hawn there? or matt damon? i don't see tom. i know he does not dance. they go. --those are always >> awkward dancing at davos. tom keene will be the big one. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am scarlet fu here in new york. tom keene will join us shortly. no shortage of news. >> trouble around the world. nowhere more evident than ukraine. demonstrators seized a government building in kiev. the unrest has now spread to other cities. they have agreed to meet to consider a no-confidence motion against the cap. a snow storm is blamed for a massive pile up in northern indiana. at least three people were killed. 20 others injured. more than three dozen vehicles collided. this was on i-94 between chicago and detroit. the super bowl is coming up in 10 days. fans are going to eat an estimated 2.3 billion chicken wings. hasnational chicken council touted it. the biggest u.s. corn crop cut cost for farmers. that should mean lower prices at grocery stores. >> what is your favorite chicken wing or buffalo wing labor -- flavor? >> blue cheese in my case. or ranch. >> i like the cream one. with garlic.\ you should try it. it is fantastic. it is time for single best chart. we picked one in honor of davos. despite the selloff in emerging markets, growth is still a factor. skews toward davos the west. this shows the breakdown of delegates. the attendees hail from western countries, like north america -- the dark green bar. and europe -- the blue bar. makeroblem is, they do not up as much of the world's population. it is a skewed distribution. have you ever been to davos? >> i have not. >> you are a white guy. you should be well represented. do you think they actually accomplish anything? have you talk to people who say that this is what happened as a result? >> it is a great networking opportunity. i'm sure the deals are discussed. in terms of what comes up, i am not sure reaches down to the heartland. i do think that there is a lot of discussion about emerging markets. a lot of discussion about inequality and the growth in great britain. these are important things for people to understand where the economy is going. >> do politicians go to d avos? >> a few. >> david cameron was there. it is probably more of a former president the thing. >> let's take a look at some of the key photos making news. we will stick with one topic. a number of different photos. the macintosh computer is turning years old today. hard to believe. this is what they used to look like when we were young. skelly, posingn with them back in 1984. >> look at that floppy disk drive. >> remember those? all of a sudden, the pc was cool. in 1998, they revamped it and introduced the imac. the original was this blue. it was hugely successful at the time. they sold 800,000 of them in 139 days. that would be a failure for an iphone. >> did you ever get one? >> yes. >> i still have my old one in my closet. >> here is the latest version of the imac. they keep fixing the inside. it features a shift for the aluminum form. you can hang them on the wall if you want. similar shape. they cost around $1300. this is the holding with consumer pricing. computers are more and more powerful. they cost less. >> what did he say the original price was? $2500? >> in today's dollars, that would be a lot more. we were talking about the 1984 macintosh ad. >> everyone talks about that. >> it ran once in the super bowl. >> it ran twice. in idaho to qualify. >> nobody would see it then? >> that ad is so important to us. younger people have no recollection of it. they go on youtube and watch it. >> this changes everything. >> there waiting for the iwatch add. that brings us to the twitter question. what was apple's greatest innovation? the pc, the macintosh, the iphone, the ipod, the ipad? tweet us. this is "bloomberg surveillance," you are watching bloomberg tv. we are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com. ♪ >> good morning everyone. from switzerland, the meetings of the world economic forums have been going on since 1971. each year, they change. what is always unchangeable is the interviews were we combine intellects here at these meetings. we do that right now. do yergin needs no introduction. he is classic. and the one that everyone is prize." to read -- "the dr. yergin joins us again. and also joining us, from general electric, john rice. it is wonderful to have an industrialist and the next gimmick. bring us up-to-date on the price of oil. is it fairly priced? >> it reflects the fact that we have this incredible surge in oil production. up 60% since 2008. that has made up and then some for the disruptions that we are seeing in the world. prices have been balanced the last couple of years. the question is if it is just supply and demand. will iranian oil comeback on the market. there is always risk. >> the geopolitical risk is there. michael mckee will give you a dated check in a minute. john rice, if you go to the seminar, one of the shameless plug's -- what would you listen for? >> he is a distinguished speaker there. >> is a great conference. it is bigger than energy. it is geopolitical. every government is thinking about ways that they did not before. look at what happened in germany. there are places -- changes taking place. people are trying to figure out what technology is important. >> maybe infrastructure. i would say energy. do you see increased investment that could lead to jobs? >> no question. look at new manufacturing techniques. data withation of big manufacturing techniques will transform the way that you do things and where you can do them. >> look at it on a global view. will those jobs from john rice -- can they be in america or are we removing jobs once again? are those jobs going abroad? >> jobs created overseas also lead to jobs in the u.s.. .t is unconventional 2012, over to million jobs. probably the brightest point has been this amazing change in energy. >> is this a threat to opec? >> it has taken them saying that it is a threat to europe. china is worried about it. it is -- the scene here is competitiveness. you can see that the europeans have woken up to say we are living in different worlds. we have lost sight and we have to be competitive. we cannot be the most expensive place in the world in terms of energy. is thatf the quotes europe is an emerging market. ge has a global platform. it sees the pulse of your. are u.s. cautious on europe as so many? >> we are cautious, but we do a lot of good things in europe. you cannot -- we support the growth markets. we have a lot of activities that we do in europe trip even though there is not a lot of growth in europe, probably there is some. you can do things in europe that help your business. >> can you build code use of energy policies? some would say that the reason for the revolution has been government got out of the way. >> government was not paying attention. >> can government in europe get out of the way? >> what we saw this week was an awakening that maybe markets have to be allowed to work. you cannot just control them so tightly and tell them what to do. it is going to be hard. the big project we're working on is german competitiveness or lack of competitiveness. it is not what happens underground. it is muscles versus the natural government -- national government. >> let's talk about china. you lived in singapore for ages. the pollution in china has become a constraint. this.e on are they going to need ge to fix it? >> there is nobody confused about the need to address the pollution problem. >> why can't they do it? >> there are a lot of things the government is challenged with. pollution is one. it is a question of what you fix over time. >> are they addicted to coal? >> that has been their economic growth. they're are also selling 20 million cars per year. men i was there, it struck that this pollution thing is such a social issue. it really has greater emphasis and much more attention to increasing natural gas. they need to start getting that under control. >> i have to ask you, since the passing of margaret thatcher, we went back and forth on this. is there a thatcher out there for conservative politics now? >> i don't think so. we are still coming out of the downturn. it is like after the new deal. the pendulum has swung in one direction. it will swing back. >> we will do an entire three-hour show on margaret thatcher. thank you so much. mike mckee, tell us about these markets. >> it is indeed. you can see everything reflected in the forex market. japanese yen is picking up a lot of around. china concerns are driving those countries that fell. the aussie dollar is down by almost one percent. unrest in turkey and you can see the result. the economy in russia is weighing on the russian ruble. it is a worldwide currency collapse. >> record low. we will continue to monitor them. we also want to say thank you to david last. editor and white house adviser. you are watching bloomberg tv. we are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com. ♪ >> flight to safety. investors are scrambling out of argentina. pushing global stocks lower. the credit card breach at neiman marcus was bigger and deeper than first thought. will smart credit cards safeguard us from fraud? in the new documentary shows the human side of mitt romney that voters never sold during the election. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is friday, january 23. i am scarlet fu with michael mckee. tom keene is in switzerland attending the world economic forum meetings. our guest host is teresa bianchi. she is the president of a big advertising firm. is the senior advisor and a bloomberg contributor. before we get to any of that, let's kick things off of the morning brief. >> we were checking some earnings. let's start with the cost of winter. natural gas prices are rising freight fourth day. the biggest weekly gain since 2012. meteorologists predict that temperatures will remain normal through the end of the month. gas futures are interesting. before the bell earnings are coming out now. procter & gamble is out. they have apparently come in about where they were supposed to be. .arnings-per-share are $1.18 there was a core earnings number. >> $1.21. $1.24.eywell is we also had zeros. -- xerox. >> $.24 per share. >> a lot of earnings coming in just now. also, unveiling of a big documentary. >> the premiere of "myth." a documentary film maker followed mitt romney for years. throughout the entire campaign. up until he lost his secret service protection and went home. should be fascinating. >> very revealing. i cast him in a whole new light. i want to play a put. that romney his family on election night. >> what do you say? what do you say in a concession speech? read what i have here into a sink. congratulate him on his victory and his campaign deserves congratulations. i wish all of the mile. they face great challenges for america. i wish them well and getting the nieces -- in guiding the nation. so they do that? >> what is going on? >> writing a concession speech. >> what you get is a more human, relatable mitt romney than we ever saw during the campaign. teresa bianchi is our guest host. how do you reboot a loser? what if he wanted to run for public office again? >> it will be difficult. i think that you saw the more human side of him. hisso think that you saw presidency in terms of his wanting to be a candidate. the staff was eliminated from the documentary. you bet to see the candidate and his family. you got to like him a little the more. i'm not sure the fell he really wanted this. this was not something he was striving for. >> david plus is still with us. you ran the opposition campaign at the time. ad you know that there was different mitt romney out there that you might have been afraid of had he been able to communicate to the public that personality? >> i think it is his positions that cost him the presidency. middle-class voters thought president obama was more online with their thinking. you are in a political war. you have respect for the other side. presidential campaigns are a grueling thing. the moment you just showed is what you dread in the campaign. calling your opponent to concede. you have to tip your hat to them. you know what they went through. it is grueling. you feel for them. these are tough things. they're tough under family. i will watch with great interest. i doubt there will be a 2016 bandwagon. >> that is interesting. we had he kept the republican contenders. they list mitt romney is number 10. they say this could provide a catalyst. there's is also a sense he could turn key states that he narrowly lost around. he can raise a lot of money quickly. >> we get swept up in these moments. i do not think anyone will talk about him two months from now. he himself has said he ran his last race. i think he means it. these things are hard and he has done it twice in a row. >> the question seems to be -- they did not know they were going to lose. did you have any indication? did you go into that i figure it was in the bag? >> in 2008, we won by a big margin. you are still nervous. it is an election. what if your turnout estimates are wrong? we felt very good based on early vote. but you are still incredibly nervous. until you start to see the first votes counted. once with all the precincts in virginia and ohio, we felt very well. that is the big story. the digital strategy needs to be fixed for them to compete. 1986.2016, not if your data is off, you will make bad decisions. they made decisions based on that data. >> speaking of the campaigns, which candidate out there has a great rant that they can build on? >> if i look at the republicans, rubio is a contender. chris christie, with what has recently happened, is probably a question. he will probably try to resurface and be a leading contender. those are the ones that i look at that have substance. rubio has a real good chance because of his hispanic following. i am hoping that hillary will run. >> there was a famous book in the 1950's about the selling of the president. are these people really like this? >> a good campaign only works when it is authentic. the candidate says here is what i believe in and here is my message. you build a campaign around them. you may with these people and you say, what is animating you? when they say you tell me, they will not win. >> that does not ring with voters. >> "mitt - the man behind the myth." i just wanted to highlight, png is reporting $1.21, beating estimates by one penny. honeywell also says that they beat analyst estimates. they have reaffirmed their forecast as well. let's take a look at how honeywell is trading. higher in the free market. $91 per share. let's get to other company news. we have to focus on carl icahn. he has said he is ready for a proxy fight over ebay. he is telling the wall street journal that he expects ebay to resist his proposal. paypal sales have been growing faster than the marketplace business. they have $70 billion in revenue. the founder of tesla says that he may have to build kind test china -- cars in china. they could match u.s. levels as early as next year. he says the demand in china may require them to build cars in that country. sales at starbucks also came up short. iny rose just five percent the first quarter. that missed estimates. they say that internet shopping during the holidays cut into traffic at malls. fewer people stopped by for a cup of joe. that is today's company news. >> davos is the focus for all celebrities in the world of politics. george soros, the billionaire, spoke to us. here's what he had to say. be aria actually used to very well developed country. it is now being destroyed. effort to a big rebuild it. the important thing is to stop the bleeding. >> stop the bleeding. tom keene is in davos. we have been talking about finance and economics. is their focus on geopolitics there? >> there is. i am surprised how serious has been pushed to the back of the debate. the rouhani speeches were well received. you and i have reported on disasters by global leaders over the years. that has not happened this year. there's been a lot of good politics and debate. within the panels, there has been a fractious debate as well. a backdrop but it is to the idea of corporations trying to figure out how to move forward given the sluggish economy. >> we have talked about various countries in various states of distress. is there one that anybody is looking at that will affect the economy going forward? >> i do not know about the u.s. economy. there has been a dramatic shift in the last 12 hours toward argentina. argentina is front and center this morning. >> front and center and we will continue to monitor as they struggle with their currency. tom keene is joining us from switzerland. we will rejoin him shortly. coming up, target shoppers know all too well that your credit card information is just not safe. we will discuss solutions next. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." our guest host is carisa bianc hi. her agency represents the grammys. this sunday, viewership has increased. tweets per minute increased as well. 17 million in 2008 and 20 million last year. night manyme a one music festival. there are awards handed out in between. it is rehearsed, it is not improvised. it is not authentic the way people want major events to be. >> i do not agree with them. there are a lot of events around the big night. leading up to the week -- there are all of these performances. i will go to one on sunset boulevard. it is an intimate, champagne bottle, you listen to some singers. there is a lot of engagement happening be on the show. especially with consumers. when we got the grammys six years ago, it was called the grannys. it was not relevant. >> antiquated. >> none of the youth wanted to watch it. we have had an increase in tune in. now it is the number two social event behind the super bowl. >> what is the distinction between the grammys and other award shows? even the oscars? >> we have figured out our audience. we have figured out how they want to interact with music. that is an engagement process. you want to be a part of it. we have them around the show. they are a much higher degree than the other award shows. >> part of the success depends on musical acts they bring on. macklemore, for instance. you made a video that went viral. he then released it. how big of an influence is the fact that someone like him -- big names in the industry, come out and respond to this event? >> is huge. it is liquidated the celebrities that have huge followings. stuff like this helps. >> absolutely. >> it is the creativity they have to bring. this is a very fun project. people knew that something would happen. they did not know what was going to happen. those are real reactions to how people reacted to music. >> the more unrehearsed hijinks, the better. and causesrus twerks outrage, that is good. >> absolutely. it is. the element of surprise is critical. also, the engagement. music is visceral. you sing in the shower and using them to run. i'm sure you do. bianchi --the grammys are coming up on sunday. coming up, what is in that box? we will explain. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" in new york. tom is in switzerland. we will join him shortly. >> things are getting worse and the ukraine. demonstrators seized a government building in kiev. the parliament agreed to meet next week to consider a no-confidence motion against the cabinet. in thailand, those antigovernment protest led to a delay. the opposition wants a decision by february 2. they ruled that either the government or the election commission will postpone the vote. protesters demand that the prime minister resigned. the election commission wants the vote delayed until may. and in tennis, rafael nadal beat roger federer in straight sets to reach the final of the australian open. a record ofwon grand slam tournaments, but he has not beaten rafa since 2007. he will meet wawrinka in the final. >> that was impressive how you said his name. who is the most marketable tennis player out there? is one of theal most marketable. he is such an interesting player. the spanish background, people really like him. >> how do foreigners play in the u.s. market? this tennis lose out because they do not have a top american? >> there is going to be a new tournament in the palm springs area. tennis is a worldwide sport. all sports -- there are players that we like and admire and follow. i am a 49er fan. i am very disappointed about the result. well, i am a bronco fan. >> i'm rooting for the broncos. >> thank you. >> turns out that the credit card breach that hit neiman marcus shoppers was worse than thought. retailers are looking at a solution that europeans have used for years. smart credit cards with a chip that is difficult to counterfeit. adam 11 is the chairman of credit.com. bianchi is our guest. adam, you had some advice for people who have been on the list of targets for neiman marcus. they have to be proactive about dealing with us. you really have to take the position now that monitoring is the most important thing you can do. that means you have to look your credit card account and debit card accounts. on a daily basis. everybsolutely sure that transaction is yours. the burden has shifted from the retailers to consumers. the old adage that the ultimate guardian is the consumer is where we are today. youow do these stores -- can answer from an advertiser point. how do they come back from this? >> i was affected by this. >> you when shopping at target? >> i did. i got an e-mail that said i had to be on alert. there's a possibility that my information -- >> has anything happened? >> no. i had to do a lot of work. i monitor on a daily basis. it can impact the brand in a detrimental way. trust is the foundation of any brand. this is something that is brightening. not only are financial, but your personal records. it can cause brand equity to decline. >> let me ask you. they do not take on credit risk like american express or discover. credit card breach is certainly hurting the brand as well. visa'ss the response? visa and mastercard require merchants to have new chip technology. if they do not have that, then the liability shifts to the merchant versus the issuer. >> it is the blame game? >> they are trying to move to the technological solution that is right. there is a lot less fraud. >> is this right? is this the solution? >> it is one of the solutions. and pinion, a chip technology is much more sophisticated than having data that is unencrypted sitting in the back of a credit card. >> mark is a very familiar name in silicon valley. we are all looking at bitcoin. forget that it is a currency. the technology behind it for payment transfers is going to radically change everything. is it better to look to that so that you can transfer money and not have an intermediary that can be hacked into spend a lot of money on chip that knowledge he -- technology? >> anything that can simple for the processes better. we're in a situation where there is a game of chicken. retailers say it will cost $3 billion to install them. the issuers are saying it will cost $3 billion to produce the cards. nobody wants to go first. if the retailers say why should we get the readers? the issuers are saying why should we not produce the cards? it would not make it worthwhile to do it. thehould we skip over technology that they use in europe and move straight to something else? whether bitcoin or paypal or square? >> we're moving toward the now. for years, the united states the leader. now we are the lagger. the one thing that we know is that hackers always go the path of least resistance. ries used chip and pin. the united states does not. where do you think hackers are coming? >> we take this much too lightly. >> for years, people have said it would not happen to me. now, in light of the fact that one billion consumer files have been in properly accessed in the past decade, the most recent hacks represent 10% of them. i think the people are waking up. >> thank you so much. adam levin, founder of credit.com. coming up, more of our conversation with david cameron. ♪ >> good morning. a beautiful frigid morning in new york city. temperatures are hovering around 10 degrees? >> we're going up to 19. we will not get over freezing until february. >> so the super bowl will be in the cold. this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get you some company news, starting with walmart. it is responding to a chinese report that it has used unlicensed suppliers to boost profits. they say they use a special approval process with suppliers that they do business with. they were criticized recently for selling donkey meat that contained dna of other animals. google has long been viewed as a source of campaign contributions. now it is expanding to the republican party. according to the wall street journal, they have hired republican operatives to build relationships with lawmakers on capitol hill. they're also donating more money to candidates overall. and a big pay increase for james gorman. he is getting a $5 million stock honest that is double the one he got in 2012. in addition, almost twice as much as what he got the year before. shares of morgan stanley were left last year. that is one reason why. >> it is that season that everyone month so much. bonus season. >> or they fear so much. >> we will find out who did well. the story is the jamie dimon is getting a raise, even though they had the $20 billion in fines. we will see how many of the ceos get more money and how much they get. >> this is a topic of discussion in new york city. what was the biggest thing you ever got delivered through amazon? >> nothing out of the ordinary. books or an article of clothing or something. >> look at this. they would need a very large drone told deliver this. about two weeks ago, they delivered a nissan car in one very large box. one box. i got a lot of attention online. delivery, a company came up with this. joining us is their president. how does an idea like this come about? did they won a tie into the new economy? >> it came with the model. the nissan versus the notes. . it is a very affordable car. this is a car that can stare -- carry a lot of stuff. >> people will not be able to get their centro through a delivery service. >> if you purchase the car, you could get $1000 credit from amazon. you could fill the car with whatever you wanted. we got a page on amazon and we got 100 reservations. 28 people bob carr. one person got the car delivered to their home. >> this is stunned marketing. does that work for brands or is it a case-by-case basis? >> it is a case-by-case basis. you have to strategically think about the stunt and make sure it works with the brand. and that in this box driving through cities and towns to get to its destination. we know that behavior of consumers -- they love to take pictures. the chance of someone taking a picture with high. >> we showing you pictures that went viral. you are filming a video of the delivery. there it is right now. neighbors took pictures and posted it. it was likes by photos that preempted the -- took the attention from your video. it is difficult to execute this without any leaks that could go viral. does that help or hurt what you're trying to accomplish? >> we wanted that to happen. we wanted people to take pictures and post it. i got to consume this is a consumer. i knew all about it, but it will up on my feet. >> you did not >> know how it would turn out. >> >> the person across the street took the picture. i had friends from germany and france abundant thing this is a hit. it blew up. >> one of the things i understand is that you cannot predict what is going to go viral. you cannot base your campaign on that. you can cross your fingers and hope. >> it comes down to strategy. i think nissan had a very specific idea of what they were trying to sell it on. we came up with your creative idea of how to do it. i think we had a good chance. someone would take a picture of this giant box traveling on a truck rid >> what disney sunday to do as a follow-up to resume? >> we have what would you do with a cardboard box? we are soliciting reactions from people. >> what would you do? ♪>> there may be some other things. >> some kids would like to make a clubhouse. >> let's get a data check. we will be rejoined by carisa shortly. stocks continued to stumble. it is an emerging market selloff. people are selling off in germany, russia, and turkey. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." you are watching bloomberg tv. we are streaming live on your phone, tablet, and bloomberg.com. i am michael mckee with scarlet fu. david cameron said down with bloomberg tv. here is what he said about the importance of chinese investment to the u.k. >> it is hugely important. in the first six months of the year, last year, we saw that britain was the most popular destination for investment anywhere in the world. i see it as one of britain's great advantages. we're not embarrassed that we have chinese investment. we are pleased. --re not in paris to that embarrassed that indian capital is invested. we're proud of that. i have been meeting with business leaders who are looking at bringing jobs and investment and wealth to her country. it is a globalized world where business go anywhere. having a country like ours will welcome your investment. that gives us a competitive advantage. erik and davos with stephanie. >> we see davos 101 in that conversation. stephanie ruhle has been taking notes on the jargon. davos, theey here in social scene last night -- rouhani was speaking, cameron was thinking. the other stars of the show, you went to dinner last night. what was the town? >> it was all that happiness. being happy. the rich and powerful -- they are not rich and powerful and heavy enough. >> i was not invited to that. continue. >> we had ostensibly the happiest man in the world. matthew ricard is a buddhist monk. he has a degree in cellular genetics. he is an author and the photographer. the nobel prize winner was there -- had a lot to say. >> he is feeling it today. things are getting real in the markets. -- he is theter perfect person to say i told you so. everyone has based in the glory of central banking. >> he did. he wanted everybody to know on the sidelines of the discussion about happiness -- he is worried about people feeling too good. >> explain this. you have been through these crises. i am doing a cross at that thing. you are equity driven. yorko equity people in new care about buenos aires? >> they'll care. they borrow against japan and the u.s. currency. all of a sudden, when this happens, the floor. . that the would it be liquidity the -- the liquidity goes away. >> these are fragile governments. >> paul singer it. s here at davos. there is this litigation between the nation of argentina and mr. singer in new york. >> that becomes a back story. the word that is going to start to appear on people's lips is contagion. what is the risk of contagion? canopy contains like it has been in turkey. or is it going to become a problem for brazil, one of the fragile five? >> you see that on bloomberg surveillance. michael mckee will have much more. bring us back to the contagion and the correlation in the market. s&p 500 futures are down 15. >> this is a bull market. many investors have bought the market. they do not believe it. they buy because they were momentum players. >> they want to place it in a more higher yield space. >> correct. >> you have no animals on today. kitten free? >> i am going tweed. it is a day of academic. economists were right. >> can you see her and a bowtie? i think it would work. >> lloyd blankfein is coming up. he will be with us. gary cohen is president of aig. ceo of tony fidel, the nest, just acquired by google. >> lloyd blankfein, an important conversation to look forward to. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom is in switzerland. we will join him shortly. we do have an betty liu. she has her book with her. we know he will talk about. >> that was a surprise. >> this is a shameless plug. >> theriault. thank you. -- now we're getting serious. lloyd blankfein will be on in one hour. tim reynolds is the ceo of luke capital. he will be talking about bonuses on wall street, his take on bank earnings and the rays that jamie dimon at jpmorgan is getting. i want to thank jim reynolds because he was in my book it he gave created by sun being a cl and working smart. the ceo of shake shack will also be on. >> he is bringing some samples? >> hopefully. he will join us to talk about how he works smart. also, what they're doing overseas. they're expanding and they opened up restaurants in moscow. they have frozen fries and now french fries. >> their fries were good. the member when you used to have to stand in madison square garden four hours. just to get a burger? >> can we do one more shameless plug? thank you. >> lloyd blankfein, looking forward to it. betty liu at 8:00. meantime, let's get to the earnings calendar. let's look at microsoft. they are moving into pre-market. they beat analyst estimates by $.10. that is the adjusted number. record sales -- $24.5 billion for the quarter. microsoft is doing well with sales of the xbox one and the shift to the cloud. the core product -- >> windows is not doing well. that is what they are known for. if you look back at the history, they are only a little bit above the average for the last decade. >> that tells you something. >> it really does raise the question of who will be the next ceo. how do they find a way to make microsoft relevant again? hi.we brought in carisa bianc you look at companies all the time. microsoft has a bit of a problem as they try to find a new leader. what is the biggest challenge to overcome? >> they need to disrupt the category. the leader is critical. that signals the culture internally and to the analysts that there is a visionary in charge will take the company to a new place. they really need to do something disruptive. they need to pull a netflix. netflix is staggering and dying. they completely reversed it on hollywood. they managed to get the attention and garner the creative talent. they changed the rules of the game. microsoft needs to do that as well. >> guest host for the hour -- let's take it back out to switzerland, where tom keene is. actually, he will rejoin us after the break. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning everyone. switzerland and new york city is the site of "bloomberg surveillance." we are at the world economic forum meetings. we're focusing on u.s. executives. lloyd blankfein will join us and a little bit. right now, truly one of my most interesting conversations of this davos. he took over management leadership of a large french bank. they are excellent at derivative mathematics and a time of crisis. he has been through the thick and the then of european banking crisis. he joins us, and more collective and he was three or four years ago. is it fun this year finally? >> certainly, i look at it in a different way. i am pleased with the growth. moderate, another less growth. lot and worked a lot very hard in the last few years. we can think about the business. zürich,g over from there was a fantastic graphic of european and american banking. there were two metrics. the bottom line is -- a number of days ago, they showed the distance between european banking and the united states. what is that distinction right now? how different and how challenged his european banking? >> i am not sure there is such a difference. a system inake terms of financing the economy. we're keeping the loans. we have a transition to make. will we have also is a more sluggish economy than the u.s.. i think that when i look at capital levels, a bank like societe general, liquidity has improved. >> thank you. did a great job, but we benefit from the collection of deposits. there is more or less the same issue as the u.s.. we need to get an acceptable profitability. that is 10%. >> i want to talk about two more topics. this goes to france and the train to london or the airplane to new york. how does france defend itself against the animal spirit that we see in new york and london? particularly with bonus pay. how do you keep your brain power in paris? >> we need to have competitive compensation packages. beyond that, i am trying to have people who are not interested in money. they are interested in their jobs and clients. in the culture that we have in societe generale, it is important to change the culture. we see people who are good. they have talent. we try to come from -- promote. people are very loyal. >> you come from generations of physicians. your father died when you were young. you into engineering school. that is the heritage. that goes back to the middle 19th century. we are transfixed from a distance by the politics of your france. i do not want to get into these discussions of the president and various social events and all of that. there is a crisis of confidence. how will your france move forward with president aland or with your next president? >> hopefully 2014 is a turning point. you might have heard the speech a few days ago. it is a very blunt speech. i am a social democrat. i know i need to support the business. >> he made it changes up for you and your colleagues. >> and beyond banks. he said we need to cut public spending. in order to reduce taxes. one way is to give the capacity for companies, for households to invest and have less burden. i think it is a significant change in the culture. what is important now is to deliver. like a ceo and a businessman, execution is key. >> we came out of world war ii. we had a france destroyed on their backs, challenged -- then along came bureau sclerosis. how are you going to defeat eurosclerosis in the next 10 or 20 years? >> we need to think about what is europe in this world? we should not forget that we creating trouble in emerging markets -- europe can offer is to pull his asian -- stabilization. they can develop the economy in a reasonable way. not so much social imbalance. at the end of the day, we should greece -- re-create a project for your. there is a lot to be done. i believe in europe myself. it is the only way for us to compete against the u.s. and china and india. without europe, we will have small countries. this should be said. >> very quickly, 10 years ago you made a strategic decision -- to exit argentina. there are challenges of domestic politics. will those redound on the global economic system? >> i am not sure it will have such a repercussion. i am looking at china or large countries. clearly, what we see is that politicians are key to maintaining confidence. two things we might see again -- a shift in balance in the emerging markets where the paradigm -- there may be more risk. less,ntries that squirrel there may be more stability. >> i have to come to paris to ask you questions. i have a few more questions. vos, switzerland -- i am trying to get a paris trip. >> i think you have figured that out. think you for all the hard work. when dugan on the plane? >> we're coming back tomorrow. we will be back on monday morning. >> safe travels. fromeene is joining us switzerland, closing out the world economic forum. back in new york, it is time for the agenda. we're taking a look at the stories shaping the day. front and center on your agenda is markets. >> the markets are a big story today. we're all worried about is going on in countries like argentina. everywhere -- cash is flowing out of equities. many are flowing into bonds. >> the yen is spiking. .02 inwent from 1.04 to 1 a matter of hours. >> samsung is on my agenda. they gave an outlook that was not so great. they put profit growth as the slowest since to say. people are starting to question their story. can they build on their momentum that they gained after outselling apple and the iphone and ipad? people are questioning whether samsung has the innovation tops. >> apple comes up with something new. samsung comes with a thing that builds on it. >> whether a curved screen, big screen -- what else have they done? smart watch. that has not picked up. it did not sell well. that leads us to our twitter question. it is the 30th anniversary of the mac computer. what was apple's greatest innovation? some answers say the unencumbered marriage between hardware and software. how about the ipod -- caught it on a whim. special version signed by bono. that is a keeper. and the challenge for every consumer good company out there -- convincing consumers to pay a premium. >> we went to bring in our guest host. there is a new wager on the table -- one online sports book is taking bets on the number of times peyton manning yells "omaha" during the game. it does not mean anything or it could mean something. one of his frequent comments -- the people in omaha say it is a great marketing opportunity. >> everyone has noticed it. it is a great opportunity for omaha to call them up and get something going. it is wonderful. you really hear the calls from different quarterbacks. that one has really stood out. >> the over under is 27.5. >> times that he says omaha? carisa bianchi, thank you so much. we continue on the radio. ♪ . . >> 11 from world headquarters in new york, this is "in the loop." i am matt miller here with betty liu and pimm fox. sell a funny stock market, we will be sticking with rbc's jonathan galub. coming in later, goldman sachs ceo lloyd bring frying -- lloyd blankfein. firm set aside less money this year. >> which automakers dominate the super bowl? why sarahplains mclachlan and something called a uaua will make his the best. say dislike hearing you that. equity futures are down today. joining the with moore's perspective -- with more perspective is jonathan g olub. now you are with the canadia