brooklyn subway car. and on the latest inflation numbers, whether they can possibly come back down before election day. when all in starts right now. good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. for about 15 months now the bulk of the department of justice investigation into the january 6th insurrection has of course focused on the people who actually stormed the capitol. there is still hundreds to go. it has mostly been the insurrectionist footsoldiers themselves generally pleading guilty to low-level charges. a few trials, if you convictions, one acquittal. or in some cases, they have actually blamed donald trump for inciting the criminal behavior, we will have more on that later in the show with a defense attorney from one of those individuals. a lot of that low hanging fruit, the people who are napped on video cameras, who were there, is now gone. and as we mentioned before, the doj is expanding the scope of its investigation to look at the people who applauded the insurrection. and that could include a man named jason sullivan. jason sullivan is a qanon supporter and a right-wing social media consultant. perhaps best known for his work with far-right political hatchet man and longtime trump friend roger stone, where he apparently instructed stone to use swarms of supporters on twitter to amplify a political message. now, sullivan is a busy man. he was also subpoenaed as part of robert mueller's investigation into russian interference in the 2016 election. but today he is coming to focus as part of the investigation into part of the insurrection itself. according to a new report in the new york times, sullivan was plotting the storming of the capital back in december 2020, and we know that because there is recording of him doing precisely that. >> it's got to be a multiple front strategy. and that multiple front strategy i think is descend on the capitol. without question. make those people feel it inside, okay? so they understand the people are breathing down their necks. and we had it. and we've got to be perfectly clear about it. now, i'm not inciting violence or any kind of riots or anything like that. but we need to be loud. it needs to be like jericho, okay? >> you can kind of see what he is doing, there. he calls for people to descend on the capitol, expressing to intimidate lawmakers. so the idea is that their presence, and the possibility of them doing something threatening, people breathing down their necks, makes them essentially steal the election for donald trump. he says we need to make congress feel it. of course, he says i am not inciting violence or riots or anything like that. i just need to be loud. generally when you control having to clarify you are not inciting violence, you are in a weird place. now the times reports that the bipartisan house committee investigating the insurrection has a copy of that recording we just played you, and it was provided to them by this woman you see here named stacy berke. it is possible that you might remember her name, you might not, she was one of those figures that popped up during that crazy period between election day and the insurrection. one of the most vocal proponents of donald trump's bogus claims of a stolen election. brick pushed this bizarre conspiracy theory about phony ballots being checked across the country to stuffed boxes, completely not true, she even sued over the results of the election, although the lawsuit was thrown out when a drug judge -- because she was not registered to vote. now that led birth to one of trump's lawyers, sydney powell, perhaps the most ridiculous figure in this whole thing. >> what we are really dealing with here, uncovering more by the day, it's the massive influence of communist money through venezuela, cuba, and likely china, and the interference with our elections here in the united states. the dominion voting systems, the smartmatic technology and software, and the software that goes in other computerized voting systems here as well, not just dominion, were created in venezuela at the direction of hugo chavez to make sure he never lost an election after one constitutional referendum came out the way he did not want it to come out. >> now keep in mind, that was at the actual rnc. everything she said there is not true. also, i mean, paul's theory is that hugo chavez, who of course has been dead for, years was kind of beyond the grave rigging voting machines from venezuela to switch the election. powell also believed that cia director gina had been kidnapped in germany trying to steal a clandestine computer server. just real to hundred prove conspiracy brain poisoning kind of thing. again, she was one of trump's lawyers. she was in the white house during this period. there is rudy giuliani, she was there at the rnc. well, she introduced stacey bergh to a right wing military themed gang, called the first amendment pretoria. interesting name. the first amendment pretoria often served as security for paul's friend, michael flynn. apparently, they were going to serve as security for miss stacy berke as well. to do so, i am not making this, up this is the reporting, they moved into her home under the guise of protecting her from the deep state. a rotating group of middle aged men invading this woman's home and staying there rent free. of course, the militiamen painted this as a favorite to stacey burke. burke told a local arizona report of the men would say quote, you are going to get killed, all this stuff, you are going to save the country, cupcake. that was their name for her, cupcake. burke says she found it demeaning. i can see why. she was also rightfully terrified of the group who had taken over her home. just moved it and kind of occupied it. again, they say they are associated with michael flynn, they are this weird gray, like, great space militia. she says the man kept trying to take her cell phone which contain her alleged dirt on the deep state. according to that same report, a quote when she repeatedly refused to hand over the phone saying she had protective medical information on it from her previous nursing patients, her security detail stole the phone. now, eventually they left her with her phone. but not before she managed to recall record the call you just heard, what we started with. that is the one where you hear sullivan putting the insurrection. burke says she was recording everything because she was essentially living under occupation by this militia which had moved in and taken over her house. this is far from the first time we have heard of a far-right gang involvement with the plotting of january 6th, of course. they were all over the place. alert stewart rhodes, the third, the head of the far-right group the oath keepers has been charged with seditious conspiracy, fairly rare federal charge for his role in planning the insurrection, including a so-called quick response team which was prepared to bring guns to the occupied capital. we also know one other far-right group, the proud boys, were involved in the planning with investigators also reportedly having their connection to roger stone in the days before the attack. according to one report, the january six committee even believes those two groups were coordinating on the planning. there is some evidence that two of those leaders met in a garage. according to one report in the guardian. so, that is just one of the many threads the committee is following. today had interviewed former white house counsel pat cipollone. one of the guys who stood up and defended trump on his first impeachment. he is one of the latest high-profile former trump allies to testify. according to the sun's report on the attempted coup, he was one of the aides who told trump they were being masked -- if trump tried to interfere with the department of justice to get it to investigate his fake claims of fraud. look broadwater covers congress in the new york times. he joins me now. luke broadwater, there is the call, and there is the context. the context is bonkers. let's just talk about the call because here is my found so striking about it. there is a question about what happened on that day. how thought it was it? how planned was it? how spontaneous was it? we have testimony, i have even had people on the show who is organizers at the ellipse rally who told me on this program there was a debate about whether people should march to the capitol, and they argued they shouldn't because it would not be safe, they could not secure them. they were shocked when trump invited them down. that phone call from jacob sullivan suggested that that is the first and earliest indication of an active plot to do essentially precisely what happened on january 6th, which is to use the mob as a tool of intimidation for the people inside. >> yes. it is really a key piece of evidence. credit to my colleague who obtained the trove of recordings, which has also been turned over to the january 6th committee. i understand just today the january six committee has taken a great interest in this act of publication of this article. jason sullivan on the call, it is pretty clear what he is asking. this is a week before the riot at the capitol and the storming of the building. he is telling people in pretty explicit terms that they need to put pressure on congress. he is talking to a group of what he describes as anti-vaccine activist who were supposed to be at the capitol that day. we do not know any of the people he talked to in that call, if they actually did storm the building. but this was the message that we have on a recording that was going out to activists who are going to be there that day. there is talk on the call of donald trump potentially imposing some sort of martial law, and there is also talk of a potential armed clash with police. so you can see that even though he cries the violence in his statement to us, this type of rhetoric being pulled the people who were going to be there that day could only serve the intentions, not defuse them. >> yes. the marshall law part is also interesting. this is one of these details that have floated around in various aspects of the reporting, and what we know, that there was maybe a half baked planned to declare it. we know that facts in the d.o.d. were worried about that. but this is another indicator of again, someone recently well connected, associated to roger, stone not just a complete random person. at some point, someone told him this was a plan that martial law was also possibly in the open. >> right. it is a step up from the rioters, right? we have 770 rioters arrested. but there were political people who got people to go to the capitol that day who got them interested in planning an attack on the capitol. and got them to want to intimidate lawmakers. and so every new stone we overturn as a paper, we are seeing more and more examples of people who were connected to political figures, who were political actors themselves, who were encouraging the highly intentions that resulted in january six. so even though you say after the fact, or even during that call he says explicitly i do not endorse violence, if you are telling people to march on the capitol and intimidate lawmakers, where's thought unavoidably gonna lead people? >> yes. we see it on the show sometimes, there are three categories. the people the footsoldiers who went, and the presidents and nurse circle who did not want to relinquish power, and the middle category of whoever is in that sort of middle space, mr. sullivan being one of them, roger stone who was hanging around at the time, alex jones, a whole bunch of other people who kind of had connections in the insurrection. in terms of principle, on he does strike me as a pretty important witness for the january six committee. he was there in the room reporting what seemed to indicate he was not on board with the coup. despite the fact that he was a loyal foot soldier for donald trump. what can we glean from cipollone's testimony and the fact that he cooperated with the committee? >> a couple of things. one, this was just a preliminary meeting between cipollone and the team investigating the attack. he may come back for a sworn deposition which would be recorded and transfer. he was in the oval office, and the white house, for several very key meetings with donald trump. one in particular was the meeting with sydney powell, and mike flynn, where they encourage the voting machines. one was the meeting with bill barr where he tendered his resignation after he told donald trump that there was not widespread voting fraud in the election, he was there for when a rogue lawyer named jeffrey clark and this rogue plan that donald trump was going to buy into the fire a journey general. so he is a firsthand witness to some of the most pivotal events in the lead up to january 6th. so his testimony is, i would think very important for this committee. i would think that they would definitely want to have him back for a transcribed interview under oath. >> all right. luke broadwater from the new york times, thank you so much, appreciate it. >> thank you. >> when we come back, the blame trump defense goes in front of a jury. my interview with a lawyer for a january six rioter who says donald trump authorized the attack on the capital, and later why paul krugman says this inflation spike is about to start coming down. but will it stay down? he will lay out when we can expect just ahead. ct just ahead. because your body is capable of amazing things. own your strength, and see how far it takes you. tonal. be your strongest. this is my zen time. it's... ...like a video game! people say, 'well, what are you? are you a farmer or a brewer?' so, i say... i am definitely a lines guy. there are millions of ways to make the most of your mow. learn more at deere.com. hey businesses! there you all deserve ways to makesomething epic!ur mow. so we're 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[baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ e*trade now from morgan stanley. nicorette knows, quitting smoking is freaking hard. you get advice like: just stop. go for a run. go for 10 runs! run a marathon. instead, start small. with nicorette. which can lead to something big. start stopping with nicorette. if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. get internet and voice for $49.99 a month with a 2-year price guarantee. and ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card at approximately 6 pm on with a qualifying bundle. january six, 2020, one shot several more of a trump supporters stormed the capitol, u.s. capitol police agents approached two men sitting on the sidewalk just south of the capital. one was wearing a trump 2020 winter cap and a bullet proof as. he was later identified as dustin thompson of ohio. for a criminal complaint filed by the department of justice, the agents stop thompson is associated with thompson picked up a coat rack, that quote, appeared to have been taken from inside the capitol building. thompson fled on foot and got away. thompson's associate, a man named robert lion associated with -- he turned over this photo of thompson posing with the coat rack. and a video from the same day were tom's recorded himself passing in front of a mirror, seen here in a screen grab where he reportedly went on to yell, woo, america, hey, this is our house. security footage for the day shows what appears to be thompson entering the capitol at 2:48 pm not long after the building was first breached. excuse me for one second. you can see on here, in that same trump winter hat, before eventually walking into an office on his right. here he is about three minutes later, apparently leaving the office with a bottle of bourbon. ha. thompson left the building in return about four minutes later associate was cooperating in the two of them headed into that same room before leaving a few minutes later. and then you can see what appears to be thompson holding that coat rack, a souvenir from the other photo. thompson was charged with several crimes, including obstruction of an official proceeding and the theft of government property. his associate, robert lyon, pled guilty to two charges last month. but dustin thompson says he is not guilty despite all but admitting to breaking these laws because he says, he only did what he did because ex president donald trump told him to. sam semantically is the attorney for doesn't thompson and he joins me now. good to have you on the program, i guess i just start with asking for your theory of the case legally here. for your client, why he is not guilty even in fact he was inside that building in an unauthorized fashion, maybe took a coat rack as a souvenir. >> chris, you define a correctly. without commenting on the facts of a case in which i'm currently trying, you've hit the nail on the head. you've got this president this gangster imploring a crowd of people who is groomed over the last year with his associates to help him with his desperate last ditch effort to overturn the results of a lawful election. >> does your client agree with that characterization? >> chris, again, you understand what it's like to be a lawyer on trial but let's talk about it in the abstract. imagine that you've been used and abused and left out to dry. one of the conclusion would you embrace, right, i mean it's sickening what's happened to these people. who would've otherwise had no business coming to washington d.c. and certainly wouldn't have stormed the capitol in this fashion and behaved in such a lawful and discussing manner. >> i think that, i have to say, i'm sympathetic to the psychological account, even a novelist took one if i were to do a character severe whatever. but i guess the legal question is, on a legal level, why should that remove the culpability for a set of actions that your client appears to have taken here, again, without getting into the facts or anyone appears to have taken. which they had to know at some level was wrong or even if they didn't, they still did. >> chris, again, you analyze it correctly. when you have the president of the united states grooming you to believe that the election was stolen or democracy is at stake. fight like hell, we're never going to concede, it's either you get down to the capitol and i'll be right there with you or else an illegitimate president is going to take office. so it's not hard, at least for my perspective to understand how vulnerable, unsophisticated, politically speaking, people who have been fed this diet of bs would behave in accordance with their presidents wishes. and that clearly impacts one's mental state, which as you well know, is an issue with this trial and every trial. >> has this, i mean there are multiple, many defensive tierney's representing many different clients, this is the largest investigation the department of justice has done, there's only been a few trial so far. a few bench trials, few jury trials. has this line of defense, which i think other attorneys have adopted, have any outcomes been produced by it as of yet? >> chris, i can't say because i don't pay any attention toward anyone else is doing. i have enough problem paying attention to what i'm doing. but i said a year ago to my client was arrested, this can be the only explanation for otherwise law-abiding citizens with no record to convene in washington, d.c., and storm the holiest of holy spots in our fair capital. there is no other explanation. zero. they were cajoled, groomed and directed, period. >> does your client regret going to washington? >> of course, who wouldn't regret being in this -- new imagine having your whole life turned upside down because you believed in this bs that was spewed from the highest levels of government? this concerted effort, day after day, we are fed this crap and you come to believe it and then all of a sudden, your poor, beleaguered president claims that the election is illegitimate and there's only one way to stop. it and that's fight like hell. >> what is he facing? >> you say, what is he facing as he's convicted? >> yes, exactly -- >> regrettably, they're all facing felony charges. and the potential for years in prison. it's just unspeakable, the horror that's been inflicted upon these folks. they didn't know better. if you look at the footage, as i know you have, it's not the journalists of the world, it's not the ibm board members of the world. it's people who were alone, disenfranchised, looking for something or someone to embrace. those are the folks that get suckered into this. it's just despicable. >> i mean, i will say the demographic factor, sort of interesting cross section you've got, there were ceos who are in the crowd people who flew their own private jets, up and down the class scale of america. so i don't think there's any inoculation against the seduction of doing it along class or education lines. i guess i wonder do you, how do you mount this defense and can you call the ex president? what's is the defense look like if it hinges on him being fundamentally the culpable actor here? >> well, you know, i follow the rules a set forth by the judge. i will make every effort to bring trump into court. we were so far unsuccessful. but that's okay, because we have his entire statement, videotaped, talking about build the wall and spewing hatred and talking about poor poor me and how i've been ripped off in our democracy hangs in the balance. every single dog whistle and buzzword were utilized by trump and his coconspirators in order to have the capital stormed in this desperate, sickening effort to overturn the results of the lawful election. >> is this a jury trial or bench trial? >> it's a jury trial, chris. >> in washington, d.c., -- >> in our capital, correct. >> and is that where you usually practice? and >> i usually practice in columbus, ohio, i'm a local yoke hillbilly lawyer. >> and showing up, you will be washington, win in this trial set? >> we are in the middle of it. >> well i'm curious to see how this all goes down. sam shamansky who was representing a client who is there on the day of the capital, thank you so much for coming on the program. >> it's a pleasure, chris, thank you. >> all right. tonight, the suspect in yesterday's brooklyn subway attack is now in police custody, the bizarre story of his rest after this. is is ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ (motor starting) the most fun we have on the gator is just ripping around the property. it's a springtime tradition. yeah, who needs tv when you have... ...decoys and the 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during rush hour, police arrested their main suspect. that is him, 62-year-old frank james. he was taken into custody and downtown manhattan around 1:40 this afternoon. in news director, justin miller, has been reporting on the subway shooting. he joins me now. let's talk about first time he was apprehended, obviously when i was on air last night, he was a person of interest. people start looking through his social media, we have pictures of him, but he was on the lamb until today. how did they actually apprehend him? >> right. so the and ypg detectives how do you suspect by linking the gun that was discarded on the train to a federally licensed arms dealer in ohio. so, mr. james bought this gun legally 11 years ago. >> got you. that is what moved him from person of interest a suspect. it is his gun, it appears. >> that he fired allegedly 33 times. >> then he is walking around new york city for 24 hours. this is wild. i have seen some reports that he have gotten to a subway in park slope, ninth street and seventh avenue? >> his known whereabouts before he was apprehended today were at a subway spot, immediately one stop after the last stop of the attack. from that point, forward this not really known where he was. which is incredible, given this man hunt. apparently he was using a cell phone that we knew he belonged to him. then he showed up in the east village in manhattan several miles away from the attack. and reportedly called police, and told them you are looking for me. >> and then someone else saw him, this guy zach, he is the -- >> the local celebrity, yes. >> a guy who was here from syria, this is john dean, he said police source believe they think he called it upon himself, saying he was not a mcdonald's in laureate side, you guys are looking for, me my phone is about to die. three sources familiar with the arrest say they asked are you frank? yeah, i have been waiting for you all day. there is a whole lot of video of this guy that gives some indication of what the possible motivation could be. all the stuff always remains opaque. what can we conclude about his worldview to the extent that it is relevant? >> i think the only thing we can safely conclude is that he is very angry. he said that he had been through new york city's mental health system, his sister told the new york times she was not aware of that, although they were sort of on the outs, and a little estranged. he was angry. but he did with an angry as he picked up a firearm, drove to new york, and allegedly shot ten people, in the course of that injured dozen or two more. >> it is one of these things were obscene people posting various videos from various different world views, everything from sort of like, white supremacists to black nationalists basically. it does not seem like whatever politics you could talk about him having coherent to something that maps on to normal politics. he just seems like a person who was pretty disturbed and angry. >> over the past ten years, i have covered stories like this. these alleged perpetrators have issued, said they have been motivated by any conceivable number of reasons. and some inconceivable. but the critical fact for all of these is that they had a gun, without that gun we would not be talking about. it he couldn't have stopped ten people and a dozen more. that is the critical aspect. and we pay so little attention to that because the gun does not make youtube videos. but that is the thing that distinguishes these perpetrators from angry people all over the world who do not have readily easy access to firearms. >> and he is now being charged, it looks like they will charge him in federal court, right? >> right. the federal prosecutors in brooklyn are charging him with a terrorism statute, because he attacked a mass transit system. >> right. i forget with the official felonies are. but it is not, it is not an active terrorism, but there is a federal law that makes -- within tend to cause death or serious bodily injury to anyone who has property of mass transit system. i imagine he will -- this will not be a particularly complicated case for them to make all of this. thank you very much >> thank you. >> earlier today president biden announced another wave of military assistance to ukraine to fight what we now call a genocide. a new strategic hurdle facing ukrainian forces trying to reach take land after this. it's 5:00 a.m., and i feel like i can do anything. we've been coming here, since 1868. there's a lot of cushy desk jobs out there, but this is my happy place. there are millions of ways to make the most of your land. learn more at deere.com there are millions of ways to make the most of your land. finding my way forward with node-positive breast cancer felt overwhelming at times. but i never just found my way, i made it. so when i finished active therapy, i kept moving forward and did everything i could to protect myself from recurrence. verzenio is the first treatment in over 15 years to 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assistance, weapons, including heavy artillery and armored personnel carriers. the announcement came after an hour-long call between biden and ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy. the announcement, biden said the ukraine military has used weapons we are providing to devastating effect. as russia prepares to intensify its attack in the donbas region, the united states will continue to provide ukraine with capabilities to defend itself. courtney colby is an nbc pentagon correspondent and she joins me now. courtney, first, the scope of this assistance how it compares to what we've given the ukrainians before. this seems like an escalation, in some ways or an increase in the level of capabilities that were providing. >> right, so, if you just look at sort of the money that's involved here, it's comparable to what the u.s. has been providing. in fact, it's about her and million dollars, the u.s. is little just about to finish any harm in dollar couple of packages in the next several days. that will be complete. but you're right, chris, to say that there is something different here. and that is, these are the kinds of weapons that are much more offensive in nature. as opposed to some more of the defensive ones that we've been seeing the united states and other allies provide to ukraine. so a couple of things that are really critical here. one is artillery. the u.s. is providing the ukrainians with not only the system to launch artillery, but a lot of artillery to launch. this is a kind of thing that has been very devastating that the russians have been providing with devastating effect in ukraine. not just that, the u.s. is providing some counter artillery radar. that's to stop, to be able to hopefully identify and stop incoming russian artillery. the u.s. is providing hundreds more of the switchblade's, we've talked about those in the past, these are these loitering missions which basically means, it's an explosive that can fly in, it's unmanned, it can void or or hover over a target and then literally fall down on it or target it. a munition explodes. these things are so powerful in some cases they can even take our tanks. speaking of tanks, the u.s. is providing even more of the javelin anti tank missiles. so you're right, these are the kinds of weapons, and sort of defensive capabilities like the radars, that the ukrainians are really going to need for the coming fight in the donbas officials believe that that could begin literally in a matter of days. so there is a real effort on the part of the biden ministration to get this equipment to ukrainians as quickly as possible, chris. >> yeah, i don't know if we have the map of where the occupation, but there's a switch here and this is a sort of second act of this war. the first was this invasion in which russian forces were offensively attempting to gain ground as they marched into, hopefully they wanted to take kyiv and other places. and ukrainians were repelling them. now, as you can see on your screen there, throughout the southeastern part of the -- crimea and kharkiv. you have the russians essentially have a swath of the country occupied, the ukrainians hope to retake. which means they are now going to be offensively trying to take back territory which is a harder task than what they face before. >> that's right. so because, and for a couple of reasons, number one, exactly as you point out, the russians already have not only just been there since the invasion but in some cases like in the donbas area, they've been there for years. they know the territory, they know the terrain, it's not as heavily populated. there's not major population centers there. so it's kind of easier for fighting, in some ways, from a russian perspective. so it is, has the potential to be frankly more advantages to the russians than what we've seen. in addition to that, as opposed to after the invasion where they had these three major axes, it's going to be a much more concentrated effort on that southeastern part of the country. there also, because they have an established present there in many cases, they have a much easier logistical capabilities. so we have a better ability to resupply themselves through their military. so yes, absolutely, the concern is, we've talked a lot about this new russian general who's going to be sort of the new ground commander there. but not just that, there is a concern because the rest of already seen a tone so many brutal tactics in that area. in the last eight years, not just since the invasion. that the coming weeks of this new sort of offensive could be really brutal for the ukraine military and ukrainian people. and the reality, chris, even though this next sort of phase of this offensive hasn't begun, the shaping operations already have. so the russians have started taking strikes into a city called -- which is sort of in the more central east part of the country. and in that region, there is, they're already beginning the initial very early phases of this next offensive that we have any yet seen. the grand operation begin. but that could begin literally in a matter of days. >> finally, some news today, the missile cruiser which is one of the most formidable and impressive ships in the russian navy. it was the ship that landed its snake island in the infamous russians go f yourself. it was that ship that was radio-ing with ukrainians there. that has been struck by two neptune missiles, ukraine army is claiming, and the russians have admitted that they said ammunition far on board. if -- that seems like a pretty big deal. >> it is. and this could be indicative of sort of the next part of this offensive as well. it has not really been in the maritime environment. so the russians have minesweepers and frigates in the sea of azov which is off closer to the donetsk area. and they have a number of landing ships in the black sea. those have not been very active, there have literally been just a handful of missiles that have been flown off of those. they haven't brought any russian troops off of any of the ships yet. there has been some resupply efforts from the frigates in the sea of haze off. but there hasn't been much of a maritime fight here. what u.s. officials are watching very closely is, is that going to change in the coming days and weeks? now, one thing that might be indicative of the fact that the u.s. believes that could happen, one of the pieces of this major foreign assistance package of the u.s. announced today, and that is what some people call see drones. but they're basically unmanned sea crafts that can be used for coastal defense, in some cases, we don't know a lot about what the u.s. is providing but in some cases, it can even be used to find minds. there is some concern though there could be some minds, mining of the northern black sea. so it's something we've been watching for weeks now but it hasn't materialized yet. this next offensive could involve more of a maritime battle. >> all right, courtney -- thank you so much for making time for us tonight, appreciate it. >> thanks. >> still to come, as the inflation surged already peaked? noble prize winning economist poll currents as inflations go back to come down but there's more to story and he shorting me next. i'm a mother of four-- always busy. i was starting to feel a little foggy. just didn't feel like things were as sharp as i knew they once were. i heard about prevagen and then i started taking it about two years now. started noticing things a little sharper, a little clearer. i feel like it's kept me on my game. i'm able to remember things. i'd say give it a try. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. this is my zen time. it's... ...like a video game! people say, 'well, what are you? are you a farmer or a brewer?' so, i say... i am definitely a lines guy. there are millions of ways to make the most of your mow. learn more at deere.com. 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(sigh) on tonal. ♪♪ week is again, that it is high. over 8% in the u.s.. the highest headline numbers since the early 1980s. predictably, at the right wing media, conservatives, and republicans are counting the democrats on it. but thinking about historical precedents for this moment, i was looking back at 1946. harry truman was president, it was a mid term, your democrat-controlled congress. the u.s. was still recovering from the enormous society wide disruption of world war ii that touched every aspect of life. as americans suggested to the new normal, inflation soared over 8%, just like what it is doing now. guess what? not a good year for the democrats. truman and the democrats lost big in the midterms that here. republicans controlled both the house and the senate. it was sort of the end of the new deal rain. the parallel here is not perfect. the economy in 1946 was actually shrinking excellence inflation. there is a lot of other factors to consider. but the big question for democrats now is can inflation around and time for them to avoid a 1946 style election night? tell pence around that question, i am joined now by noble prize economist winner paul krugman, peddled inflation is about to come down but don't get too excited. paul, let's start on that. people don't like inflation, and understandably so. the politics of it are pretty uniform across the world. there is nowhere where inflation is going up, and the opposition party isn't just absolutely hanging in around the neck of the incumbent party. that happens in all kinds of places. the question is, what do you see happening in the next six months? >> okay. barring another war starting someplace else, the inflation headlines are about to come down. half of the march inflation was gasoline prices, which was very much driven by fears about the impact of the ukraine war. that is already, prices at the pump are already down significantly. when you see the inflation number, that is the average for march. cats prices have come down considerably since mid march already. wholesale gas leading prices are down 60 cents a gallon. so, that factor is going away. a lot of the other stuff that has been pushing inflation really high is -- it seems to be easing. there seems to be shipping rates coming down, we were all talking about a shortage of truckers, all of a sudden the trucking industry is worrying about a trucking recession because it appears that inventory has been built up, there has been such a frantic urge to ship stuff. so we are bound to get almost eric medically necessary, we are deep bound to get a series of monthly numbers that are below what we were seeing, and the corresponding months last year, which means that the annual average rate of inflation is going to be dropping for the next several months. >> there is of course the distinction between the core cpi index, and headline, and the distinction there is that there are certain parts of what is called the basket, the prices that are monitored, that can be very, very volatile. energy, food, for instance. court takes that out. court is actually lower. which again is encouraging the story that you are telling. but politically, food and gas mean a lot to people. >> yes. gus is going to look a lot better unless something unexpected happens. again, wholesale gas prices are way down. that is going to -- i mean it has already partly reflected. food is a different issue. ukraine and russia are pretty big parts of the world. so that is going to continue. but there are other things. in the court case of food and energy, it turns out that there are other things that are also very volatile. like used car prices, which are coming down. so, i have no idea whether this good news will be in time to make a big difference for the midterm elections. the headlines on inflation for the next six months are probably going to be very different from the headlines that we have seen for the past six months. >> i hope -- i mean, just on the merits, i think it would be better for everyone. there is also this interesting thing that happened, i have seen people worried about this, what other things that happened were that there was a huge shift of american consumption habits from services to goods. people could not do a lot of the stuff that they were doing. vacationing, all of this, they were buying a lot of stuff. that created the supply bottlenecks. we sought in prices spiking. we could not produce enough used cars, for instance, because it was not enough circulation. it does seem like that is shifting back, which is another thing that is going to maybe believe that inflation area pressure. >> yes. that is an important part of what i think is about to happen. and there is something that people call the bulb effect. when you see an increase in demand for stuff, and people start panic buying a little bit, because they are worried about it. retail starts stocking up, and it works down the chain. the ball whip is starting to crack in the opposite direction now. aside from cars, where there were special problems because of schiff's, inventories are actually high. we are actually looking at a situation where all of that reduces the pressure. so a trucking recession, all of a sudden it appears that people do not want to ship nearly as much stuff. freight rates are coming down. there are still high by historical standards, but all of those things which contributed, i would say that about two thirds of the rise with inflation from normal levels that we have seen is the special factors. oil, supply chain stuff. there is still a significant part that will not go away. which is why i said don't get too excited. we still have some underlying service inflation issues. but the short term stuff is likely to be -- we will see how the media treats it, but when the inflation rate is coming down, we will get headlines that look like the inflation rate is going up. >> yes. there is this actual fact, and then the coverage of the fact, and how that factors perceived. i think it will affect the political outcomes. it will be interesting to see what happens in the next six months. i hope that the good scenario is on target, and hopefully we can avoid a recession and hitting the brakes too hard on the growth we have had, which you have been writing about, it has been remarkable. paul krugman, as always, wonderful to get a bit of your expertise. thank you. >> thank you. >> that is all in on this wednesday night, the rachel maddow show starts right now, good evening rachel. good evening chris, i am sorry that he's you about your sweats. >> i think they were very sweet and stylish sweats. my wife got them for me for my birthday. and i think they look very nice but you know what, that's what i do is 2022, third year the pandemic. i took my kid to his baseball practice and i got on the trade in my sweats. and then i rolled through 30 rock in my sweats. and mainz was now? no, i changed. but that's just where we. are >> it's like a match sets is a like animals where -- >> no i'm not quite there yet at tony soprano yet. but i am definitely on my way there. >> all respect to you. all respect to you chris, no problem, well done my friend. you know, and coming from

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