wave. >> i think you're going to see a big, big victory for republicans in the midterms. >> at stake, not just the biden presidency democrats argue, but democracy itself. will the voters agree? >> i will allow no one to place a dagger at the throat of democracy. >> we are the united states of america. >> it's time to meet the midterms. this is your one-hour primer. it's a big week, one-year anniversary of the inauguration, as you know, unofficial start of this campaign year. welcome to tuesday, i'm chuck todd. as we kick off nbc's news's coverage of the midterm election season with this special edition of "meet the press daily" that we're calling meet the midterms. these midterms are shaping up to be one of the more impactful election cycles we have had this century. the house and senate both on the line, lots of governor's races which all could play a big part in 2024 politics as well. we are living in some unusually tumultuous times in terms of the instability of the two major parties in power. it's shocking how often we change party control of the house, white house and senate in the first part of this century. only really one other time in history have we been this volatile. president biden, though, is approaching the one-year mark of his presidency, struggling to combat a covid surge, struggling to get major pieces of his agenda through democratic-controlled congress with those small majorities. the senate is right now debating the voting rights agenda on the floor. there is not enough support to get it passed leaving democrats fighting amongst themselves over rule changes that probably won't pass, either. there's also the weight of midterm history facing president biden and the democrats. the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 29 house seats ins first midterm election, republicans only need to flip five this cycle. most recently trump lost 40 in his first midterm and only one as president. the pace of all these democratic retirements suggest they kind of know which way the wind is blowing nationally and that's why they may be headed for retirement. remember, democrats are coming off of a 2020 election cycle where they lost seats in the house, it's why this current majority is so, so thin. plus democrats barely eeked out a senate majority. they didn't think they got it and all of a sudden they swept the two georgia seats, but they still have zero cushion there. and a whole bunch of these seats are in play, 34 senate races in total this year, in states that will be battle grounds in 2024. look at where the senate races of '22 are and think about the 24 battleground map, georgia, arizona, pennsylvania, florida, wisconsin, nevada. those sound like familiar states, don't they? on the plus side for democrats redistricting has not been the boone for the gop that many predicted. republicans may not be able to redraw their way fwhoot majority alone. plus, the republican party has largely surrendered itself to former president trump and those election lies that he constantly spews which could result in a slate of candidates running because of their loyalty to trump not their electability. overall the single bingest question hanging over both parties is this, is there any way for democrats to change this trajectory or are they going to rely on trump to do it for him? here some of my interview on "meet the press" on sunday with jim clyburn. >> what do you need there the president to improve democrats' chances in 2022? >> i think he's on message, stay on message. don't let people get him off message. you know, my father was a fund amount istomin ster, he used to say the darkest hour of the night is that moment just before dawn. so, yes, things may look dark. keep pressing. >> as we know, john mccain had his own version of that when he would say it's always darkest before it goes totally black. it was him apparently at least trying to make a joke quoting now. the question is is this dark on its way to light? i want to show you something that we're unveiling here, we're calling it the meet the midterms dashboard. it's going to tell you what shape, where are we headed for the party in power. we have four columns here, shellacking as you can see previous midterms, 2010, 2014, '94, '06 all midterms where one party, the party out of power, picked up seats in both chambers. 18 just missed being a shellacking because republicans while they lost house seats picked up a senate seat and then '98 and '02 were places where the party in power actually picked up seats. i'm going to show you how we determine this and how you can follow national poll numbers. basically there are three poll numbers you can follow nationally that will tell you the likely shape of these midterm elections, direction of country, right track, wrong track, the presidential job rating and the generic ballot. let me show you what these numbers were in sort of three different types of election cycles. i will start with what a good election cycle for a party in power is. this was president bush's first one right after 9/11, the wrong track was under 50%, majority of the country thought we were heading in the right direction, president approval over 60%. they picked up a senate seat and which of course gave them the senate and they picked up eight house seats. let's go to what president obama called a shellacking, if you will, and that was in 2010. look what happened here, wrong track, well over 50%, 60% wrong track number, presidential approval was 45, congressional preference, republicans plus two, and look what it turned into, 63 house seats for the republicans, six senate seats. they came up short in the senate so it was a sense of surviving. let me take you to 2018, you can see these numbers, wrong track a little below what it was in 2010 as you saw there, 54%, majority thought we were heading in the wrong track, presidential approval at 46, it ticked up for trump a little bit, maybe the reason why republicans survived in that midterm in places like georgia and florida, congressional preference d plus 7 and it led to those house seats. i give you all that background so that you can see where things stand now, our most recent nbc "wall street journal" -- excuse me, the nbc news poll at the end of last year, i will show you where things were. so on direction of the country 70% wrong track, that's big time shellacking territory. you look at the presidential job rating as of our last poll here, his approval sitting at 42, again, that would put democrats in shellacking territory. let's take you to the generic ballot, here the democrats plus two, that puts you somewhere in no man's land, a lot of strategists will tell you democrats have a anything 3 points or less for democrats probably means republicans pick up seats so they need to be in that 5, 6, 7 point advantage for them to be in that -- that area. we will have another nbc news poll coming out by the end of this week, we will update this this, but those are the three numbers and right now two of the three that we track are sitting there in shellacking territory. so it will be a lot of fun as we track throughout the year. let me bring in our panel right now that we have here. i've got joining me nbc cheese white house correspondent kristen welker, david plouffe and sara fakin, an nbc and "meet the press" contributor. kristen, let me start with you, we hear the words reset being thrown around this white house. what does that mean? a lot of times you actually don't hear the word reset until after a midterm election result, but they want to do it before. what does it look like? >> reporter: well, they're still trying to work through the details, chuck, and that is one of the striking features of this reset, but based on my conversations with a number of senior administration officials, it means that we are going to see president biden spending a lot less time meeting with lawmakers and a lot more time taking his case to the american public in what venue will that be, will he be hitting the road more, that is certainly one of the options on the table. of course, covid has complicated his ability to do that. in terms of messaging, chuck, i'm told you can expect the president to make a sharp contrast between himself and republicans. no surprise there. but also between himself and some democratic lawmakers. of course, we're seeing that play out over this fight with voting rights. right now where the administration is not able to get key moderates, senator manchin and sinema on board with changing the filibuster rules in order to get voting rights passed. so i think those are the types of arguments that you are going to hear from president biden and he's also going to, of course, try to reset the arguments on build back better, that key piece of legislation that stalled before everyone left for their winter breaks. he's going to try to revive that once we get through this week, this fight over voting rights, and what do the conversations look like there behind the scenes? well, of course it will likely entail some type of scaling back of that massive piece of legislation, but exactly where and how much, that remains to be seen. so i think they're still working through the key details this have reset, but of course it comes against the backdrop of criticism, chuck, that the president has been engaging more like a member of the senate and less like the president and one official told me he does not want to be the legislator in chief. he is going to be using the full power of his bully pulpit with this reset, chuck. >> the power to convene, make them come to the white house. david plouffe, how much of this -- between january and november you can sit and say it's a long time between november, but there's some stuff that gets baked in. so what's realistic here? if you are sitting in that white house, you've been in this position -- you were in this exact position in 2010, start of 2010, you lose that senate seat, a lot of democrats chomping at your ankles, you have to do this, you have to do that. how much time realistically does the white house have to sort of change the trajectory here? is it before the start of summer? >> well, chuck, i think it's more time than it used to be. i'd say a couple things, you pointed out the two elections in the last generation that performed differently than we expected, '98 and '02 and they are worth spending a minute on. '98 the republicans really went over the deep end on impeachment and voters responded negatively to that. in '02 you had the aftermath of 9/11, president bush was popular and the republicans weaponized the war on terror. to break the pattern i think you have to have something unusual happen. the unusual thing here, i think, will be the pandemic ending. if that doesn't happen the election is going to be disastrous, but if we are endemic by the spring, certainly by the summer, as we get into next fall, kids aren't wearing masks to school, the economy is roaring, that's a change i think is important. another thing is who comes out of these primaries and you mentioned this in your opener. if glenn youngkin is not the model and i don't think he will be, i think most people who win primaries for the house, senate and governor, republicans, will be maga weirdoes. you have an opportunity and we saw, chuck, as you well know, you covered this closely in the earlier part of the obama administration the republicans should have gone twice but they nominated ray papala. so that's really what happened. the messaging is important for sure but the big things are the big things. the environment has to improve and the major thing there is people feeling better about the pandemic and then secondly you've got to swing the republicans into the conversation right now because this has all been about democrats and elections of course have to be a choice not a referendum particularly when you are unpopular. i think that's where we stand but i think the most important thing will be the state of the pandemic. i think you're right that can't be the fall, i think it has to be spring/summer so you have enough time to bake in that and then who the republicans nominate i think will be a crucial, crucial factor. >> you know, sara, i talked with some folks who were part of your reset, the bush reset in '05 into '06, into '07 and the things you tried to do before the midterms ended up not working but they still had to be done. i guess the question is, you know, do resets matter or does the political environment just trump everything? >> well, i think a little bit of both. i mean, at the end of the day, you know, we are in such a nationalized environment that, you know, i think it's going to be hard to go district by district and eek out a save in the house for democrats. this is going to go big against them or it's going to, you know, be successful as david pointed out if the pandemic ended and so forth. although almost nobody thinks there is a path for democrats to keep the house. you know, in terms of a reset, you know, i think this is an interesting point you bring up because thinking back post president bush's reelection heading into '06 which was a disaster for republicans electorally, you know, we were trying to do immigration, didn't get it done. trying to do social security reform, didn't get it done. you see the same thing happening here with the biden administration. from build back better to lots of challenges with the rollout of these changes around the pandemic, to what happened in afghanistan over the summer. he's had a really tough eight months and they definitely will need to make very dramatic changes quickly or this is going to set in. >> kristen, you know, you were covering this white house, i have had a theory that one of the challenges this white house has had with its sort of message management as president is it was kind of easy during the campaign. almost maybe it turned out to be too easy. what worked during the campaign were these virtual events. they worked and obviously we were in a different moment. how much do you notice that where it just seems as if maybe they didn't -- maybe they didn't really fully appreciate how hard it is to message in this fragmented siloed environment because it seemed to work almost too easy for them in 2020? >> reporter: well, i think that's an important point, chuck, and i think that's why there's not yet a consensus about what this reset is going to look like. take, for example, what we saw from the president in the fall when cameras captured him meeting with lawmakers, he had hours of meetings with lawmakers, even as his agenda was met with hurdle after hurdle. and so, of course, what you historically would see is a president go out on the road and take his case to various states and to the american people and that process was really slowed down. so i think, you're right, there was an element of underestimating that. i also think that this is a president who has approached some of his relationships with the senate in the same way that he did when he was a senator, trying to reach across the aisle and expecting that there would be at least in the early days of his presidency an attempt at bipartisanship and that just has not happened, and not only has he not been able to achieve that bipartisanship, but he hasn't been able to unify the members of his own party around his agenda. so i think that traditional approach both to messaging and to governing has been two of the biggest hurdles that this president has faced, chuck. >> and what happens is when you get -- when you are unpopular your democrats turn away from you and that's what you see happening. so, you know, at a 42% job approval rating democrats aren't going to go along with him. >> david plouffe, when you look at the coalition that elected biden and i think this has been a debate that a lot of, i think, people of good faith can disagree, your largest chunk may be by pure numbers is the progressives, you also have african americans and other more traditional rank and file democrats who aren't as idealogically liberal as the progressives, but then you have this group of independents, maybe right leaning independents and when you look at these numbers and see they're cratering are independents. i know in a midterm year you don't get quite as worked up over that, but how much should this white house wooer about the cratering in the middle that they've been receiving? >> you still get pretty worked up, chuck. on your question to kristen, when i was in the white house i can't tell you how many people say you guys seem like you can communicate well in the campaigns, what happened? it's interesting when you have a billion dollars to communicate to the voters you need to communicate and one opponent it is easy, it's just much more difficult -- >> fair enough. >> -- in government. i will say this that any swing district, any competitive governor or senate race has the composition of all those voters you talked about. yes, it is a midterm but independent modern voters -- we are in a period of enormous volatility. i'm struck when some say there is no such thing as swing voters. you look at what's happened really over the last, you know, five to six election cycles and it's unprecedented and we are probably going to continue to see it. you need to put together -- how do you get to 50% or 49% if there's some third party vote and it's going to be well enough with all of that. i think right now for democrats you have challenges amongst all of that. your registration and turnout constituency and swing voters. you've got to make progress. now, i do think build back better is something that can work in terms of messaging all those people. the big thing is you have to turn this into a choice. mcconnell gets this, by the way. why did he acquiesce so easily for some people surprisingly easy on the debt limit? he wants the democrats to be in the middle of the stage. he likes his hand and he wants to make sure the republicans don't become too much of the focus. he's very smart in that way. democrats have to find ways, i think, both nationally but in these district and states to turn this into a referendum, but it's going to take all that. you're not just going to win this on turn even with the republicans, the math doesn't work in a swing district or swing state. >> just to underscore the volatility point, i'm glad you brought this up, it's obvious we have swing voters. we have 11 elections since 2000 and only in two of them has there been no change in either the white house, house or senate. in nine of the 11 there's been at least one party flipped. so this idea that we don't have swing voters is obviously not true. >> sara fagen, is the entire republican party's ability between a gray year, good year, good year and mediocre year all come down to how the primaries play out in places like north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania? when you look at those three it's like, boy, it really depends on the nominee more so there probably than any other set of three places. i might even throw missouri in that. >> well, i think certainly the nominee will matter a lot. i think in at least several of those cases it doesn't matter who the nominee is, i think both candidates would be positioned to win well. i think ohio is a little trickier. but generally i think it's -- this argument in the senate at least to me is overplayed, that there is a sea of bad candidates. i don't think that's true. i think there's a couple of examples of not ideal candidates. i think what's more interesting to me sort of longer term for the party is in places where president trump and the house has gone out recruiting candidates, what happens do incumbents get knocked off and what does that mean in the general election? that has an impact on the president of course. >> right. >> if he were to run again but also the bearing of the house and do republicans win it significantly or win it by 10 or 12 seats? so i think that to me is a more interesting study on the primary politics. >> it's interesting there. this is a sour mood of the electorate and i do think we may be surprised in how many incumbents lose primaries this year. could be more than we think. you know, you have that kind of mood, we are sitting in that 65% to 75% negative territory, that's throw the bums out territory regardless of party. we saw that a lot in '94, somewhat in '06, things like that. last question to you, kristen welker. you are in south carolina talking particularly with african american voters. you are in south carolina today, i'm going to georgia tomorrow for really the same reasons. in the primary it was south carolina that made biden president, the nominee and in georgia it gave him the power one party power to begin his presidency there. what are you hearing from voters you've been talking to? >> reporter: well, that's right, chuck. i mean, if president biden has a base it is with african american voters here in south carolina. they helped deliver him the nomination and ultimately the presidency. i have spoken to a number of african american voters this morning who tell me they knocked on doors, they've fought for candidate biden to win the presidency and now they do not feel as though he has delivered on some key promises to them including helen bradley who lives in hopkins, south carolina, that's a rural county outside of columbia. she says that the top issue for her is voting rights. she feels frustrated that that big speech that the president made in georgia, that impassioned argument to get voting rights passed happened so late and she's really reflective of some of the disappointment that we're seeing in the polls among african american voters nationwide. there's a butt here, though, chuck. helen bradley says she's still going to support biden though she wants to see more from him on this issue and other issues and she's already started registering voters in the midterm. so she is still energized but concerned that her community won't be energized if they don't see more progress. >> this is the explanation i kept hearing for why the president had -- why advisers to him believe he had to use the words he used down in atlanta there. kristen welker in south carolina, thank you. david and sara, you made everybody here a little bit smarter. i look forward to spending a campaign year with both of you as we go on. so thank you for that. we should note literally as we were talking we got news of two more house democratic retirements, 11-term member of congress jerry mcnerney of california and five-term rhode island congressman jim lengamin. that makes 28 house democrats to the running for reelection. turning to capitol hill where senators have begun dating two voting rights bills for the first time. up until now republicans have blocked the motion to proceed which effectively stopped the start of debate on these. this time democrats used a procedural move thanks to their friends in the house to bypass the motion to proceed so there was no threshold to start debate, no filibuster to start debate. there will be the ability to do that to end it. moments ago senate majority leader chuck schumer spoke on the floor to kick off debate. he said that senators need to be put on the record on where they stand on these two bills. >> win, lose or draw, members of this chamber were elected to debate and to vote, especially on an issue as vital to the beating heart of our democracy as voting rights. and the public -- the public sent titled to know where each senator stands on an issue as sank row saingt as defending our democracy. >> still to come on our meet the midterm kickoff special how this year's midterms are already proving that all politics are national. we will dig into the biggest issues on the ballot that could signal where both parties stand in november. that's next. back with more of this special edition of "meet the press daily." road. i have friends. [ chuckles ] well, he may have friends, but he rides alone. that's jeremy, right there! back with more of this special edition of "meet the press daily. he gets touchy when you talk about his lack of friends. can you help me out here? no matter why you ride, progressive has you covered with protection starting at $79 a year. well, we're new friends. to be fair. eh, still. i've always been running. to meetings. errands. now i'm running for me. i've always dreamed of seeing the world. but i'm not chasing my dream anymore. i made a financial plan to live it every day. ♪ at northwestern mutual, our version of financial planning helps you live your dreams today. find a northwestern mutual advisor at nm.com ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean. nothing like a weekend in the woods. it's a good choice all around, like screening for colon cancer... when caught in early stages it's more treatable. i'm cologuard. i'm noninvasive... and i detect altered dna in your stool to find 92% of colon cancers... even in early stages. early stages. yep. it's for people 45 plus at average risk for colon cancer, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider if cologuard is right for you. we're in. welcome back. if democrats can hold on to the senate in november that will go a long way to blunting a potential problem on the house sides of things. we have nbc news politics reporters working, living, listening in some of the places that will determine control of the senate like in ohio where republicans are look to go hang on to rob portman's seat and the primary may show us just how far right is too far right as the gop candidates vie to appeal to trump supporters. in the upper midwest where democrats hope to oust republican governor ron johnson we may learn how far left is too far left with issues like police reform likely to dominate the primary. joining me now henry gomez and natasha karecki. henry, it seems like a week doesn't go by without some candidate writing a big check to go on tv. that candidate is matt dolan for those of you in ohio the last name the dolan family owns the cleveland guardians and, yes, they are related to the nicolle wallace dolan family if you are really keeping that support there. is it four self-funders we have in this primary right now? licks louisiana i it out there for you us, henry. >> i think there are four self-funders right now, i think six of them have the capability to do it including j.d. vance the hillbilly author who hasn't tapped into his personal wealth. he has wrote himself $100,000 which sounds like a lot but this this race competitively speaking it's pennies. matt dolan is spending $10.5 million on this race, only some of that is a loan. he's donating $8 million to his own campaign. the interesting thing about dolan's candidacy is he's doing different, he is the one candidate in the race who is not tightly hugging donald trump. he is running a more classic traditional gop rob portman-esque campaign which they are all running to succeed rob portman and nobody is running like rob portman except matt dolan. it's a liability others believe to be the next rob portman. it might not be enough. there is another guy spending over $11 million, mike gibbons. it's a wild ride in ohio and the airways are jam packed. >> henry, walk me through this. no runoff here. i mean, the dolan strategy, i mean, what is it could 23% run this primary? >> yeah, i mean, you want to set that as the over and under. i know some people that would take that action, absolutely. josh men dell has been leading in early polls with around that percentage and it's because he has name recognition whereas some of these others don't have that. now, that's why they're pumping all this money in because you can pie name recognition if you inundate the airwaves between now and the may primary. we are looking at expensive, angry, trumpy maga primary. where if you are matt dolan and having a slightly different message maybe you run up the middle and catch fire. >> and tim ryan i assume he's not going challenged, nobody from the left is giving him a serious -- this is one of those cases where democrats will avoid a messy primary, right? >> tim ryan does have a primary challenger, morgan harper is a progressive attorney who did primary representative joyce beatty a couple years ago, lost pretty badly in that primary. she is a known quantity to many people in the progressive movement but tim ryan has all the labor force behind him, he has been raising big, big money, he probably doesn't have a lot to worry about with this primary challenge. to your question how far right is too right, how right is too right? you know, if he draws a really super right challenger even though this is a state that trump won with eight points, tim ryan might start looking more like the sensible center in a state like ohio. >> he's trying to position himself ala sherrod brown. let's look at the flip side of how a primary could impact the democrats chances. wisconsin, natasha, that's what you've been all over and have new reporting to share with us, but i believe there's only one real self-funder there, but the front runner is somebody that's from the progressive wing, national progressives, mandela barnes, lieutenant governor, they've been rallying around him. i wonder how nasty could that primary get. walk us through and i know you have breaking news having to do with potentially ron johnson. >> right. we've just reported that the self-funder alex lasry is a billionaire, he is the executive owner of the milwaukee bucks, the very successful milwaukee bucks, just put in a million dollars in a massive ad buy and we are told that's just the beginning here. it is going to keep growing exponentially from there. this ad buy will include in addition to television we're looking at a huge digital buy, lots of mailers. so he is really pumping in some serious money here and i think that really notches up the game. so what we're seeing is mandel barnes, yes, he is the front runner, has been getting the big endorsements but we're seeing somebody we were just talking about buying name recognition, i think alex is going to get out there pretty quickly and position himself as the businessman who is to the right of mandela barnes. of course, we have republicans, republican operative just told me today that he was going to -- he was very happy the republicans are happy that mandela barnes is the front runner because they can just paint it as too far to the left. remember, wisconsin is ground zero for a lot of what we saw, we were talking about -- you mentioned police reform. well, kenosha, right, we have a kenosha riots here, you had kyle rittenhouse's very national trial and all the implications there. there is already an effort to tie mandela barnes to tony ever's decision, the governor's decision in how he handled the kenosha riots. if you recall at the time there was a lot of criticism around too slow in moving the national guard out. that was, you know, front and center at the time. so too far left in wisconsin, well, you know, medicare for all, the green new deal, these are some of the things that they're trying to pin on mandela barnes. what we're seeing from our new reporting today is the issues that alex lazry is tackling are really interesting. he is looking at inflation. >> right. >> he's looking at -- he's looking at supply chain issues as well. >> trying to sort of meet voters where they are at rather than try to get out of the ideological lane. very quickly, natasha, if republicans are happy that mandela barnes is the front runner i would assume democrats are ecstatic that ron johnson is running for reelection? >> yes and no. my sources tell me even democrats are admitting to me he is -- he's the front runner. he is the front runner. he has the advantage right now. but, yes, certainly they think he's vulnerable. he's under water in polling at the moment. >> whoever the dem nominee is will probably either that person or val demings will probably raise more national money than any other democratic nominee. henry and natasha, we will get more from you on the road as this journey continues. thank you both. coming up, we will show you how midterm flips don't predict white house flips. we've got who else but mr. kornacki joining us from his big board next. you're watching a special "meet the midterms" edition of "meet the press daily." a special "mee the midterms" edition of "meet the press daily. throughout history i've observed markets shaped by the intentional and unforeseeable. for investors who can navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns. i recommend nature made vitamins, because i trust their quality. they were the first to be verified by usp, an independent organization that sets strict quality and purity standards. nature made. the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand. i'm jonathan lawson here to tell you about life insurance nature made. through the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85, and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three ps. what are the three ps? the three ps of life insurance on a fixed budget are price, price, and price. a price you can afford, a price that can't increase, and a price that fits your budget. i'm 54, what's my price? you can get coverage for $9.95 a month. i'm 65 and take medications. what's my price? also $9.95 a month. i just turned 80, what's my price? $9.95 a month for you too. if you're age 50 to 85, call now about the #1 most popular whole life insurance plan available through the colonial penn program. it has an affordable rate starting at $9.95 a month. no medical exam, no health questions. your acceptance is guaranteed. and this plan has a guaranteed lifetime rate lock so your rate can never go up for any reason. so call now for free information and you'll also get this free beneficiary planner. and it's yours free just for calling. so call now for free information. find your rhythm. your happy place. find your breaking point. then break it. every emergen-c gives you a potent blend of nutrients so you can emerge your best with emergen-c. welcome back, as we said at the top of the show, history and the current political climate tell us anything it's that republicans will likely have a good night this november in the midterms at least in the house, but history also tells us that what happens this november will not predict whether republicans will win back the white house two years from now. there's no one better to break that down than my pal steve kornacki. steve, i remember after the '94 midterms when republicans swept governorships in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, ohio, that meant absolutely nothing in 1996 for bill clinton. show us the point you're trying to make here. >> you mentioned the history, big picture, this is what the history looks like, the white house party in midterm elections we're going back all the way here to 1942, only two exceptions and they're big exceptions 1998 the unpopular impeachment that republicans were leading against bill clinton, 2002 just a year after 9/11 that's what it took for the white house to buck history and actually gain house seats, otherwise it's just an ocean of red going back decades, going back generations. that's the history that biden and democrats and the white house are up against heading into this year's midterm election. let's zoom back in on more kreent history. let's put biden's numbers heading into this midterm year in perspective. you look at his average approval rating right now, he clocks in at 41.7%, average all the polls together, that's the average approval rating for biden one year in his presidency. how does that measure up against his recent predecessors. going back through clinton biden's numbers a little bit better than trump but who are than all of the others on here. w., this was just after 9/11 to put a big asterisk on that. you mentioned this, too, going back to '94 with bill clinton, here is the modern trend in our politics, the president comes in and two years later loses the house. bill clinton lost the house in the '94 midterms, obama lost it in 2010, trump lost it in 2018, w is the only exception here. if you look at biden's numbers they're lower than a lot of these predecessors right here, you saw the big picture history and the thing that started in '94 is the chamber itself started flipping two years after every new presidency except for bush. so the history three of the last four have lost the house in that first midterm but then when you fast forward it two years later once that happens as you mention bill clinton bounced back, used that republican house that was elected in '94 as a foil, got reelected, obama got reelected trump didn't get reelected but came close. history says rough year for biden and the democrats this year but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to carry through to 2024. >> steve, any exception? the one thing i would ask it is unusual both bill clinton and joe biden came in by losing house seats in their presidential year and then lost more two years later. bill clinton's was unusual, that was different, you had all sorts of -- there's so many caveats to throw in the '92 election cycle we don't have time for it, but does that -- is that sort of function that he's already had a midterm loss coming in in a weird way for biden? >> yeah, i mean, it's interesting if you look at the starting point, right, for clinton and biden, it's a little bit lower, but still when you look at the number of vulnerable districts that are out there, you could certainly see the potential for losses. i mean, maybe, you know, clinton's party lost 54 seats as we see in 1994, maybe if '92 had played out differently it would have been 60 or 65, but it still has an awful lot. >> no, that's for sure. steve kornacki, a little nuance to our political history there. thank you, sir. coming up, our nbc county to county report. going to be on the ground throughout the year talking to voters on the issues that matter to them and some states that we care a lot about. they will tell us what they're watching for next. you're watching "meet the press daily." tching for next. tching for next. you're watchin [limu emu squawks] woo! new personal record, limu! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty. ♪ daily. well, would you look at that? jerry, you gotta see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks... gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! ugh. unbelievable. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone. welcome back. as you know we have our county to county project and we are bringing it back for the 2022 midterms, it's a way for us to keep track of what's going on in some key voting groups, but do so from the ground level. here is a first look at what our county to county correspondents from coast to coast are watching for this cycle. >> reporter: in 2022 i am watching die hard trump counties in purple states, especially in georgia. the former president has spent a lot of time aggressively criticizing the state's republican governor and doubling down on false claims of election fraud. >> your rino governor brian kemp who has been a complete disaster on election integrity. >> reporter: will those attacks on the republican governor divide the republican base and give democrats an advantage in the gubernatorial race and will trump supporters stay home because they don't trust the election system? these are counties we know republicans will hold, but in swing states it's all about the margins. >> reporter: so in 2022 i will be watching for the undecided voters in washel county. now, a third of all voters are no longer registered as democrats or republicans. >> many of the voters in anson tell us that they feel voiceless, shut out of the political process so we will be on the ground talking to voters about what needs to change. voters are reporting a sense of apathy, a lot of fear. >> in 2022 i'm watching to see whether democrats can win back the blue dog voters they lost to donald trump in 2016 and 2020. i'm in luzerne county, pennsylvania, which was one a democratic stronghold but trump flipped the county by double digits. the blue collar workers are getting hit by historic inflation rates and a supply chain crisis, all issues that will impact the midterms. >> we are also going to be watching two key statewide races where democrats are trying to keep their steet, one is senator masto and the other one governor steve sisolak fighting to keep their seats. >> one thing i will be watching extremely closely this cycle are what's expected to be very competitive and very expensive races in the state of wisconsin. look, both parties know the stakes here, both sides already have ads on the television airwaves. >> with democrats in total control our nation is on a very dangerous path. >> johnson has been helping himself, he's been hurting wisconsin families. >> we are talking about a senate race that can help determine party control of the u.s. senate next year and the governor's race that can help determine voting rules in what is a crucial battleground state. what i will be looking to see is whether or not these democratic candidates can be successful in states where they have been successful in previous cycles. >> i'm watching to see whether republicans can win back the moderate voters that they lost because they felt alienated and turned off from the party by donald trump. will those voters come back home to the gop for the midterms? >> we will for sure be watching the latino vote in washel county where hispanics make 25% of the population but only 16% are registered to vote. latinos have been called the sleeping vote. latinos have been called the sleeping giant here, so the question is will they come out and exercise their voting power in 2022? we shall see. >> we shall see. we're going to be saying that a lot, at least in the next eight to nine months. and we will see what develops in key places and with those key voter groups as the year goes on. up next, one of the county recorders joins me live from battleground pennsylvania. you're watching "meet the press daily." battleground pennsylvania. you're watching "meet the press daily. i'm jonathan lawson here to tell you about life insurance through the colonial penn program. if you're age 50 to 85, and looking to buy life insurance on a fixed budget, remember the three ps. what are the three ps? the three ps of life insurance on a fixed budget are price, price, and price. a price you can afford, a price that can't increase, and a price that fits your budget. i'm 54, what's my price? you can get coverage for $9.95 a month. i'm 65 and take medications. what's my price? also $9.95 a month. i just turned 80, what's my price? $9.95 a month for you too. if you're age 50 to 85, call now about the #1 most popular whole life insurance plan available through the colonial penn program. it has an affordable rate starting at $9.95 a month. no medical exam, no health questions. your acceptance is guaranteed. and this plan has a guaranteed lifetime rate lock so your rate can never go up for any reason. so call now for free information and you'll also get this free beneficiary planner. and it's yours free just for calling. so call now for free information. welcome back. let's dive a little deeper into some of our county reporting. we'll stick in pennsylvania where the race is simply wide open. you've got crowded primaries on both sides of the aisle. the state was key in delivering a win for biden in 2020 and it was key for trump in 2016. it's a very narrow margin which means this senate race could be anybody to win. we're in wilkesbury, pennsylvania. what's unique about this senate race, really more than anywhere in the country, both primaries feature the idealogical divisions that have defined both parties this decade. >> reporter: yeah, chuck, that's absolutely right. look, it's still early in what's going to be a very long midterms year, but the stakes are high. you can already feel it. the candidates are out there shaking hands, they are spending money, they are flooding the airways with campaign ads. there haven't been a lot of big tests yet, but just over the weekend we got a bit of an early indicator as to where the republican candidates stand, at least within the party itself. we had the republican central caucus straw poll. the central caucus represents about 32% of gop voters in the state. these are local republican leaders, the folks that are going to get voters organized and out to the polls. the results are telling and interesting. the top two candidates, bartos and barnette are folks that have been in the state, really building those relationships within the party. but the newcomer, dave mccormick, just a couple days into the campaign got double digits. that is a sign that he has some appeal. he has ties to the trump organization and the trump circles, and he was recruited by republicans in the state. but interestingly enough, dr. oz, the celebrity name in all of this, just one vote, chuck. so while he does have a lot of name recognition here, it doesn't seem like he's being taken seriously by the state party at this point. then, of course, you've got the democrats, lieutenant governor tom fetterman running as a more progressive candidate, congressman lamb more moderate. it's going to be a hot one to watch, chuck. >> it sure is. always interesting to see outsider candidates, insider tortoise versus the harry. the tortoise wins more often than people realize. thank you. that does it for us. this hour flew by. be sure to tune in tomorrow and thursday. we'll continue our special editions of "meet the press daily." i'll be live in georgia, perhaps the single most important battleground state these days? katy tur will continue after this break. break good to be with you, i'm katy tur. call it a last stand, call it formative politics. however you want to frame it, democrats are framing a reckoning on voting rights on the senate floor. as we speak, democrats are debating two voting bills that passed the hourk

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