good evening. from new york, i'm chris hayes. top military officials are warning that what held last time, the military fire wall blocking attempt's attempted coup, might not hold again. three former top military strategist, major jel paul eaton, who commanded operations to train iraqi trips during iraqi freedom, major general antonio taguba, who authored the report of detainees held the abu ghraib and general anderson warn, quote, we are increasingly concerned about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for lethal chaos inside our military, which would put all americans at severe risk. we are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeded next time. first we should discuss how the fortifications did hold one year ago while trump's attempted coup was unsiddious and reckless and damaging to the very foundation of american democracy, it was also inept. and a big reason why the entire attempt was so haphazard was precisely because donald trump did not have the military on his side. of course that's usually how coups work. by definition a coup is usually a violent, sudden seize yesh of a power from a government that often involves the hilt. -- military. we seen it in libya and chile and pakistan, on and on. and they are removed to remove one by force. that didn't happen following the 2020 election. thankfully there the guardrails of american democracy are inculcated enough into the federation. to be clear, it was not from lack of trying from donald trump. remember, in the leadup to january 6th, he apparently realized in order to carry out a successful coup, he was going to need the military on his side. in a memo circulated internally in the white house just weeks before the election, trump's enforcers in the personnel office recommended he fire then secretary of defense mark esper, the man in charge of the pentagon. accordingly ousting esper could not wait. what were esper's transgressions that required him to be fired immediately? disloyalty to donald trump. specifically among other come complaints to use the american forces to put down riots. . think about that phrase. "to put down riots." he wouldn't go along with the president ordering troops to put down american citizens. and therefore he had to go. because the logic follows if you did not want to do it in 2020, he would not use the military to quell protests after per se the president overturns the results of the election he lost or who knows what else. donald trump apparently agreed. he fired esper less than a week after the election. in his outgoing memo to staff, esper reminded the troops of their civic duty. quote, i want to thank you all for remanning apolitical and honoring your oath to the constitution. always do the right thing." hint, hint. so they get rid of the head of the armed forces, right, donald trump's appointee at the pentagon after the election, he's out of the pentagon. according to reporting by robert costa, general milley was certain that trump had gone into a serious mental decline in the aftermath of the election and was mainly worried trump might attempt a military strike and also worried that he might attempt an attack on america itself. "they may try but they won't succeed, milley told his deputies about a possible coup, you can't do this without the military, you can't do this without the cia or fbi or the guys with guns." that's not a idea situation to find in a democracy, but it's where things ended up with milley as the fire wall inside the administration, at least according to those reports. and determined to stonewall the commander in chief, if necessary, not to foment a coup, but to prevent one. in statement responding to the milley reporting, trump said, quote, sorry to inform you but an election is my form of coup. if i was going to do a coup, one of the last people i'd want it do it with is general mark milley. okay, i totally did not do a coup but if i did do a coup, it would not be with that guy. he's nagging milley about his coup abilities? milley is refusing to come out publicly by any of this. he has said his loyalty is to the country and the constitution. all of this is good, it's what we want to happen so an authoritarian president was not able to weaponize armed forces to keep himself in power after losing a free election. it's not a status quo we can just take for granted going forward. quote, "on january 6, a disturbing number of veterans and military members took part in the capital. more than one in ten of those charged had a service record. a grout 124 retired military officials unthe name flag officers 4 america released a letter of attack on the legitimacy of our elections. the potential for total breakdown of the campaign comment should another occur. the idea of rogue units organizing cannot be dismissed. paul eaton served in the iraq war. i wonder if you could talk about the origins for this piece, why you felt the need to write it, why it came about and what precipitated it? >> great to be here and thank you very, chris. so the piece was designed to correct or at least to address a failure to imagine. the republican party has been imaging pretty well the january 6th insurrection was unimaginable to me until i watched it unfold on various news outlets. and the intent of the op-ed was to cause folks to consider that intelligent people are doing after-action reviews on why 6 january failed and what they can do to correct the failure, the points of failure. so you went through a series of steps that we read and began to help trigger the op-ed. three governors dispute who the commander in chief of their national guards are. that's another opportunity that we have for command failure and command lack of understanding of how the chain of command works. so when the indications and warnings you that laid out, with the fact that the republican heart has gone to great lengths to infect america with this question of electoral suitability with the fact that the election of 2020 was a fraud and we have 39% of the gop who do not accept that president biden is the duly accepted president, we have 17% of the gop who feel that violence to correct that situation is appropriate. so we wrote this op-ed to correct that failure of imagination, that it can happen, that americans are going after it right now and offered mitigating opportunities to buy down the risk. >> i want to read some of the prescriptions you have. i think before i get to that, just one more follow-up question about this. my read on what happened when you read about what was happening at the pentagon and with esper and then milley is that, again, at some level the fundamental small democratic ethos of the armed forces at least at the top level really did hold, right? i mean, at a deep level -- >> they did. >> -- the oath to the constitution and the notion this is not what the armed forces should ever do, to interfere in election, that that held. i think your concern, though, is that that could be eroded with sustained attempts by the ex-president and his sort of facilitators to eat into that belief, at least among folks that are in the armed forces which is 1.5 million people. >> indeed there is an active movement right now on the part of the gop to infect the armed forces of the united states with doubt that the election process is just not what we expect it to be, to insert doubt that we are conducting fair and elegantly delivered elections. so there will be opportunities for good americans to conclude that the election may not have produced results that are consistent with what they want, and will listen and we've got to get after that particular threat. >> you're right here. the pentagon should immediately order a civic review and must reinforce unity of command to make clear to every member o the defense department who they answer to. obviously as 33 years in the u.s. armed forces as a general, you do a lot of planning, a lot of worst case scenario planning, it's sort of the job. it strikes me that's kind of what you're talking about here except with worst case scenario planning for something cat catastrophic internally. >> indeed. we had the transition integrity project. we had four scenarios. this was developed by rosa brooks and her team and what we did not consider was the military having a problem within each of those scenarios. what we are asking for is to red team this. what we are asking for is to have that burst of imagination, what can happen and what do we do about it. and that's the war game component that i think we need to see the nation do about two years before the actual election coming up in 2024. >> i wonder, general, obviously you co-wrote this op-ed with two other retired folks. if this is a topic of conversation in the circles in which you operate. if the aftermath of january 6th of the shock of it, the surprise of it, the possibility of further democratic erose and watching that as an explicit project of certain actors, if that's just something that is circulating a lot in the circles you run in. >> chris, here's the thing. all of us know men and women we trusted, they are our friends, they may be our family members and they are infected by this gop message that the election was stolen. we all have these people. and we all know that that your smart enough to know better, but for some reason this feast of fieldity to donald trump has just compromised the intellect and wisdom of so many americans. we have a failure to imagine and we've got to fix that. >> that's a very, very profound point and personal. and i've even spoken with former colleagues of michael flynn, who, you know, have a very hard time squaring the individual they see now and the things he says with the man they served with. i know there's a lot of people that feel that way about a lot of other folks. major general paul eaton, thank you for your time tonight. >> thank you very much. >> all right. breaking news published a few minutes before coming on air in the "new york times." the january 6 committee is weighing a criminal referral against a donald j. trump next. l against a donald jrc. trump next that's why instacart helps deliver the ingredients. and you add the love. when you really need to sleep you reach for the really good stuff. new zzzquil ultra helps you sleep better and longer when you need it most. it's non habit forming and powered by the makers of nyquil. new zzzquil ultra. when you really really need to sleep. when it comes to autism, finding the right words can be tough. finding understanding doesn't have to be. we can create a kinder, more inclusive world for the millions of people on the autism spectrum. go to autismspeaks.org. every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. just a few moments ago we got a bit of breaking news on the committee investigating the january 6th insurrection. "the new york times" reports the committee is weighing the possibility of recommending criminal charges against former president donald trump and others in his circle. "according to people briefed on their efforts, investigators for the committee are investigating whether there was wire fraud by republicans who raised millions off assertions despite knowing the claims were not true o whether mr. trump obstructed congress by trying stop the certification of votes. michael schmidt is one of the reporters in the story and he joins me now. it seems like there's a bit of an arc here where the committee started and where they were going in undertaking their work. >> this committee was established to create the most authoritative account on what happened on january 6th. like many congressional investigations, when they got under the hood and took a look at what happened and they looked at these troves of evidence, they had begun to consider whether they'd have to make a criminal referral. vice president cheney let the cat out of the bag on this the last few weeks where she publicly read from the criminal code. we went back and did some reporting to sort of look at the extent that the committee is looking at this issue, the two biggest issues, the ones that you laid out. look, a criminal referral has no real legal weight, but what it would do is it would possibly change the pressure on attorney general garland. the attorney general has been able to largely skate without having to address the question of whether donald trump is being investigated and if he's not being investigated, why not. he has largely skated on that issue so far since coming to office. but if the committee after a thorough investigation were to make -- send a letter to the justice department saying, look, here's where we think there is criminality, it would put new pressure on d.o.j. to at every least be responsive to congress and to explain to congress what's going on here. >> it's a great point about the institutional dynamics here i hadn't even thought of. i think what's been clear is much this much was done, even from the phone call to rafensberger, there's lots of stuff in the record that we know, even through reporting through yours and others and other things that have happened that show that, you know, whatever the legal status, the president was trying to overturn the election and stay in power based on a set of untrue, false statements about how the election went. the question is what that add up to at the department of justice. this committee issuing a referral with have huge reverberations in the institutional dynamics in the meanings of president's actions vis-a-vis the department of justice. >> you would think it would be something difficult for justice department to not address in some way given the largeness of that question. if you remember back all the way to 2017, the democrats and republicans on capitol hill were holding up the nominations of top justice department officials, including rod rosen stein, the deputy attorney general. and what happened was is that pressure became so great and they demanded -- what they were demanding was answers about what was going on with the russia investigation. and it was to unlock rosen stein's nomination, to get him confirmed that the fbi director at the time, james b. comey, testified before congress and acknowledged the fact that there was this investigation. he briefed lawmakers in private and he publicly went out and said it at a congressional hearing. that created huge reverberations in washington, the simple fact that comey was being acknowledging it. rose enstein got confirmed and helped fire him. >> right. there have been no public hearings thus far. we have seen them come forward and give some evidence. we've seen high-profile cases of individuals who have refused cooperation, whether that's steve bannon, who has a criminal referral department of justice and of indicted or mark meadows or people pleading the fifth like roger stone, hundreds interviewed, tons of documents. i'm curious what your report indicates about the progress of it all. >> look, whatever they have, whatever they know, it was enough for liz cheney to go out and say what she did in these past few weeks where she read from the criminal code. i think this committee wants to be taken seriously. they wanted this to appear like it's a bipartisan effort that is following the facts. going out there and reading the criminal code is one of the more aggressive things that is congressional committee that has no powers can do. what we learned is there was work underneath those statements. it was no accident she was saying it. the investigation has former federal prosecutors working on this. they don't want to be embarrassed by sending some sort of frivolous letter to the justice department that would be ignored. they would want this to be a truly serious thing. >> let me just play a little bit of cheney, what you're citing here, her talking in language that was just lifted from the u.s. criminal code about obstruction of congress. mr. meadows' testimony will bare on another fundamental question before this committee and that is whether donald j. trump through action or inaction corruptly sought to obstruct or impede congress's official proceeding to count electoral votes. this committee is entitled to mr. meadows' testimony and will until our judgments. >> my understanding is there's actually a bunch of people who have been charged with obstruction of proceedings that stormed the capitol. it was charged against lots of folks who were there doing precisely at that. >> as best as our reporting shows, the justice department investigation has worked from the ground up. it has really focused on those individuals who literally stormed the capitol on january 6th. and as part of those prosecutions, some of those individual have been charged with obstructing congress. the question is can that be applied to someone who was not themselves literally obstructing congress. and these are larger legal issues -- [ no audio ] -- the justice department would really have to weigh. the question is would the committee do this and when would they do it. >> michael schmidt, thank you for that great reporting and joining us at the last second. i really, truly appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> an absolutely jaw dropping, almost unbelievable look at just how quickly the new covid variant has taken over the country. what you need to know as the holidays get under way ahead. ad once-weekly trulicity is proven to help lower a1c. it lowers blood sugar from the first dose. and you could lose up to ten pounds. trulicity is for type 2 diabetes. it isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. it's not approved for use in children. don't take trulicity if you're allergic to it, you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have an allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, changes in vision, or diabetic retinopathy. serious side effects 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"the u.s. announces plan to offer boosters to all americans starting in late september." but then came the dissent, all sorts of folks, those from the world health organization arguing it would be unethical to give americans a third shot while many vulnerable people around the world, billions, in fact, had not even had one dose. that's a totally reason ethical, ament argument. it's a policy argument. dr. krause and gruber actually left the agency because of the white house's booster plans, according to the "new york times," in an article, they claim the data did not give all healthy americans a booster. they said it was concerned about politics leading science when it was the other way around. they're making a political judgment about where they are best used but the science is clear. data from israel showed booster doses worked. president biden's plan to boost everyone was absolutely the correct one on the merits of the science and it was essentially sabotaged out of good faith it seems, but still destructively by a bunch of public health experts who arrogated to themselves a larger policy determination about trade-offs and ethics and where the doses should go. all that has led to really muddled messaging all around and worriying low levels of booster bostons -- doses go to the public. it is necessary for good policy but not sufficient. there are always judgment calls our leaders have to make and those calls are going to get even more intense with the incoming omicron wave. we'll talk about that with the health commissioner for the city of new york next. ssioner for thy of new york next what do we want for dinner? burger... i want a sugar cookie... wait... i want a bucket of chicken... i want... ♪♪ it's the easiest because it's the cheesiest. kraft. for the win win. ebenezer. ebenezer. ha ha ha ha. marley? first you will see the past. excuse me! coming through! ugh! and then...the present. and finally, ebenezer...the future! introducing the all-electric eqs. happy holidays from mercedes-benz. no one can deliver your mom's homemade short ribs. that's why instacart helps deliver the ingredients. and you add the love. raffensperger. tonight the white house announced a staff member who was in close contact with president joe biden tested positive for covid today. on friday this person, who is usually not in regular contact with the president, spent about 30 minutes in what they are calling proximity to biden on air force i during a flight from south carolina to pennsylvania. staffers were tested and boosted. the white house announced president biden has tested negative. elizabeth warren and two others tested positive, saying they are experiencing mild symptoms, which is great. this new variant is highly transmissible. tonight they are saying omicron is 73% in the u.s. the orange color is delta. it is the dominant strain for the beginning of the chart and counts for basically all the cases until this weekend on boom, september 18th, that switches to omicron in purple. cases in doubling in 1.5 to three days, which is an astonishing rate. on top of that, moderna and pfizer vaccines without boosters appear to be less effective against the fast spreading variant. though we should note more effective than nothing. on the other hand, there is also some real world data that's encouraging. in south africa are omicron cases are lower. even though it is spiking, hospitalizations have not followed. take a look in new york city where so far weekly vaccinations among vaccinated people is still relatively flat, which is a good sign. on the one hand early lab research on omicron suggests it could be unprecedentially destructive. and the information out ofthe u.k. does not seem to bear that out. how do we square that out? it's great to have you, doctor. you've got quite a task on your hands. what data are are you looking at on your perch as the head of public in new york city to understand what this variant is doing? >> and that's so much for having me, chris. yes, we're following data not just day by day but often multiple times a day. the key is our epidemiologic data, follows the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and we're also following the vaccination numbers very closely, as well as the proportion of cases estimated to be omicron, which is in the new york city area 92%. >> it's interesting you say that. starting about a week ago, something started happening in new york, which is that. >> started getting covid. i mean, i had never seen anything like it, having reported through and lived through the pandemic multiple times, it was clear that like something new was afoot. what does it say to you about the rapidity of transmission and what are your observations or what does the data suggest about most of the people i know who got it have had break through cases. >> we have to look at exposure, infection and disease. when it comes to an exposure to the coronavirus turning into an infection, omicron is. fastest, fittest and most formidable version of the vie virus that we've seen. we have to take steps to try to prevent that from happening, layered precautions like masking, distancing and better ventilation for almost two years now. we also do have to look at weakening the link between infection and disease. and that's where vaccines are vitally important and will remain so even in the omicron era. it does mean that getting as many people fully vaccinated as possible as we have done aggressively in new york city, over 71% of all new york city residents are now fully vaccinated. that is critically important and we're now layering on booster doses to add yet more protection. >> yeah, i want to put up the data because new york city is an interesting case study. 71% fully vaccinated across all age groups. another 8.2 partially vaccinated. so that's almost 80% of the city, at least partially vaccinated. it's a place that has high levels of antibodies from previous infection obviously because it took the worst -- one of the worst outbreaks in the entire world in the first wave back in the spring of 2020. and i guess the big thing that everyone is going to look to in this city is with a city of vaccination rate this high and omicron completely dominant, what does it do to severe illness? what happens to hospitalizations? that's going to be an indicator of what phrase of the pandemic they're in and what it means to the rest of the country if they can expect similar outbreaks? >> that is the critical question. we feel a lot of humility. this is my fourth wear in new york city. we have lived through it, we have responded to it as public health leaders. so my approach is one of great humility, which means we're not going to take anything for granted and we are preparing for hospitalizations to increase. i expect that they will despite those very high levels of vaccination that we have described. but i also want to emphasize we're not powerless against this. we have a lot of agency. we just have to bring to bare all of the tools, some of the ones i mentioned, emphasizing higher quality masks, ventilation which can be as simple as moving things outdoors or cracking open a window or a door, as well as testing. we've got to bring all of these layers in concert and we can help to blunt the impact of omicron. >> we should say the new york city operates a number of public testing sites, a number of public vaccination sites, has announced plans to send ventilator masks, n-95 to folks, as well as free rapid tests. so the city public health infrastructure stronger than almost anywhere else in the country. the big question, your point about humility here is, you know, where are we now on the fourth wave? like you're saying we have more tools. i think people feel that but there's also this pit of the stomach feeling of, like, well this got cancelled, that got cancelled and these three people i know have covid. >> especially in new york city everyone is feeling traumatic echos of that first wave. those memories will be seared in my brain until the end of days for me. and no one wants to go back to that. but we do have to realize that we are in a different place. first and foremost because of vaccination but because of all of those other layered approaches to safety, i'm really proud of the ways in which new york city has brought that into communities, meeting people where they are in neighborhoods to provide them with the resources that they need. that's what we'll have to do to weather what will be a challenging few weeks and particularly to save lives and prevent suffering. and i do think that we can do that despite the challenges that omicron brings. >> crack a window at your gatherings, crack a few windows, get that booster, test, before you get together. dr. dave chokski, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. >> what was behind joe manchin's decision to unilaterally torpedo the biden agenda or maybe not? 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[ screaming ] xxx this is a mammoth piece of legislation and i had my reservations from the beginning and i cannot vote to continue with piece of legislation. i can't. i can't humanly get there. joe manchin went on fox news to declare his position on build back better. it's unclear if that means game over, one immediate result of his opposition will be on the expanded child tax credit. more than 35 million families, including i think 92% of households with kids in west virginia started getting that payment in july. it cut the child poverty rate in the country by a quarter in just the first month. there's more and more evidence the expansion of the child tax credit is the things that manchin wants to get rid of. joe he said he thought parents would waste the payments on drugs instead of providing for their children and that americans would fraudulently use the sick leave policy to go on hunting trips. it's at the core of why the american social safety net looks the tattered way it does. joining me, david pluff and heather mcgee, board chair at color of change, civil rights advocacy company. heather, when i saw that huff post reporting, i thought of you immediately because your whole book is about this sort of -- the racialized suspicion that someone somewhere is going to get away with something, they're going to get some benefit, ends up costing all of us. you call it drain pool politics. and in this case it just seems so apparent. like the thing that joe manchin is worried about and this is not public, like privately telling other lawmakers that someone somewhere is going to buy drugs or fake sickness so no one can have this. >> that's right. even though we know that there are benefits to everyone, there are benefits that are spillover effects beyond just the affected families, which is, as you said, 92% of the families in west virginia, vast majority of them white and this is a benefit of particularly the child tax credit that goes way up the income scale. this is something that is just a recognition that it's expensive to raise a child and that every other one of our peer industrialized nations do much more in terms of helping families do well and thrive. this is not over. that's the one thing i want to say that's so important is i'm hearing from advocates that they're going to ignite right after the holidays and make sure that everybody in washington understands that this once in a life time shot for america's future. obviously it's for families and children, all of the different provisions, for the climate but it's about whether this country will thrive and survive and be competitive in the future. that's why so many investment banks and wall street downgraded our outlook if we don't refill the pool of public goods for everyone and stop having these someone racialized, degrading attacks on government, torpedo economic prosperity for us all. >> we rising downward our gdp prediction for next year, to wall street, everyone, because manchin just maybe killed this thing. but that was the tangible effect, which to me was like, man, you couldn't write a better headline, david. part of what's so maddening about watching this play out and i agree it's not over, we'll talk about that in a sec, people are always saying you guys need to get away from fighting these cultural war wedge issues and activists said defund the police and this was like this whole bill was like here's some meat and potatoes stuff, okay? wherever you are, you're going to give you money to raise your kids, help you hire someone to take care of your senior citizens who need elder care. here's some day care. here's some good investment in clean jobs. and it's let's do some meat and potato stuff that's popular and it's polling at 86%. >> i'll tell you the question and picking up on what heather said, where do you go from here? having worked in the west wing, having worked in the building, it's as far from an aaron sorkin episode you can imagine. so the question now i think in the weeks ahead as furious as a lot of us are is do we focus on how do we hurt joe mancin or help millions of americans? subsidies, maybe prescription drug reform and a huge investment in climate in addition to voting rights. if by the end of january or mid february we're able to say we came back and got a lot of what was in the build back better, and able to secure our democracy, i think we'll be in a much different place than we are today. i know how frustrating that is but can you either basically say it's done and let's remind people, i hope with all of my heart this doesn't happen but the democrats could lose control and as bad as the senate map is in '24, for a while. so this is your opportunity to help as many people as you can. >> yes. i totally agree with you. i think heather agrees, too. the point is no one can hurt joe manchin. he's got his house boat, his maserati, he's a u.s. senator, he wanted a trump-plus 35 state. joe manchin is joe manchin. he proposed a $1.8 trillion package to the white house. it didn't have the child tax credit because he apparently really does not -- he affirmatively doesn't like that. at this point my feeling is like, okay, fine, the way to call the bluff is literally give him the pen, you write the bill. if that's what it takes to get 50, that's what it takes, right? or because saying it's over essentially gets everyone off the hook, including joe manchin and sinema. if you say, okay, fine, it's over, then they're chilling. >> i think you're right that if joe manchin as what vision of what he wants, it's just so hard to complete that sentence. this one millionaire from a very small state gets to say what the entire country should have and families struggling all over the country should and shouldn't have based on these outdated ideas of what it is that parents spend money on. there's actually data about what parents are spending child tax credits on. he doesn't have to look that up. he can have a racialized, classist impressions. anyway, sorry. i had a hard time getting that sentence out, "joe manchin wants." are we in a country where families can have what they need. it's what joe manchin and all the other democratic party has to say about that question. that is "all in." the "rachel maddow show" starts right now. >> good evening, my friend. happy to have you here. two weeks ago the cdc said the omicron variant of covid accounted for 0.4% of all the covid known to b

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