travel record, despite a warning not to travel for the thanksgiving holiday. >> let's just confine the celebration to the family unit that lives with you. >> stop rocking the gravy boat, doc. >> if you're seeing grandma, it is suddenly a superspreader event. >> this is some people's final thanksgiving, believe it or not. >> for some, it was their final thanksgiving as president. >> confirmed biden's win with a small boost, adding 87 votes. >> ahoy, it's the fox phone, who is calling at this hour? >> joe biden did not get 80 million votes. they call them dumps, big, massive dumps. >> speaking of massive dumps -- >> the legal team has been a national embarrassment. >> unless things change, joe biden will be inaugurated on january 20th. >> say it ain't joe. trump takes questions from his adoable little desk. >> don't talk to me that way. just a lightweight. don't talk to me. >> i'm the president of the united states. >> this has been "this week in covid history." >> those are so good. good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it is wednesday, november 24th. along with joe, willie, and me, we have the host of "way too early" and white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. former aide to the george w. bush white house and state departments, elise jordan is with us this morning. in a moment, we'll have the new reporting on the house select committee investigating the january 6th capitol attack, now subpoenaing the leaders of the proud boys and the oath keepers. what kind of information are investigators looking for from those extremist groups? also yesterday, a jury orders 17 white nationalist organizations and leaders behind the so-called 2017 unite the right rally in charlottesville, virginia, to pay more than $26 million in damages. we'll talk about what that means for those extremist groups. and in a matter of hours, we may know the fate of the three men accused of killing ahmaud arbery. we'll get to that just ahead as well. first, tensions boiling up between the u.s. and two of its top foreign adversaries. chinese and russian officials are condemning u.s. military action near their borders and touting the, quote, unbreakable friendship between the two countries. coinciding with a virtual meeting between beijing and moscow defense leaders yesterday, the chinese government issued a statement, accusing the u.s. of undermining regional stability by recently sailing a guided missile destroyer through the taiwan strait. tensions between china and taiwan have increased in recent months with fears china may be plotting an invasion of its neighbor. president biden last month pledged to support taiwan in the event of an invasion. as for russia, kremlin officials blasted the u.s. for an alleged increase in military advisers and weapons systems near the country's border with ukraine. this comes as recent satellite images show russian forces amassing near the ukraine border, sparking invasion concerns there. touting china's alliance with russia, beijing's defense official said yesterday, quote, standing in the face of frantic u.s. containment and pressure, china and russia are united together like a great mountain. our friendship is unbreakable. >> it is to laugh. let's bring in richard haass, and columnist for the "washington post," david ignatius. richard, like an unbreakable mountain. i don't know where to go with that, given the history between china and russia. but let's talk about the dangers facing the world. the biden administration, the tough decisions they're going to have to be making. you have two countries who have designs on two different countries. taiwan and ukraine, they both look poised to strike. could yesterday's meeting, could the joint statement be basically a sign that both may move on their invasions at a time when it'll be hard for the united states to push back? >> look, joe, we can only measure capabilities. we can't measure intentions. i don't think either is imminent. the china pressure against taiwan, i think, is longer term. i'm not sure china has yet reached a point where it has all the military capability it would want and need. russia, though, is very close. if it wanted to launch a massive invasion against ukraine. look, these two countries have two things in common. one is their fundamental illiberalism. they are authoritarian, and they want a really different world order. the kinds of things we're pushing, democracy, human rights, don't happen. then they are in a position -- to get to this opening thing mika talked about -- they each could benefit from a crisis in the other's backyard. one of the things the biden administration has to think about is not simply how we deter a crisis in each of these two areas but also how we prepare for both simultaneously. i don't think it is possible to rule out a kind of tactical exploitation by russia or china if there is a crisis elsewhere in the world. >> well, david ignatius, that's exactly the concern. i think that many people in the foreign policy field around joe biden are having. the fact that we had this joint statement yesterday, and you have china ready to go after taiwan. been talking about it obviously for decades. and, of course, russia poised to go into afghanistan. could they do it simultaneously in a bid to present such an overwhelming challenge to the united states that we cannot respond to either? >> i think that's obviously the message they're sending. i see two basic points about this, joe. the first is alliance mobilization, if you will. and it's always scary when you get these statements of commitment by allies in period of tension. it reminds us of 1914 and the lead up to world war i affirmations of commitments were announced. this was specific and graphic language. the thing that worries me more is the way in which these statements seem to suggest an equivalence between taiwan, which china regards as part of china that it will someday regain, and the u.s. is committed on paper to the idea that there's one china. although we try to defer when that would ever be resolved. and russia's view, which putin stated in a 5,000 word essay last summer which nobody really read, stating ukraine is part of russia. historically, it's always been part of the russian homeland. this equivalence between the two makes me worried that russia is now putting ukraine on that same status that taiwan has been. that we will recover this, if not this month, next month. if not next month, next year. the forces russia has now on the ukraine border are not seen as sufficient for a full invasion. there are actually fewer today than there were last april. there was an earlier fear that russia might go over the border. but they are building. there is intelligence that suggests russia has much wider ambitions. so, no, this is mobilization, but also it may be putting ukraine in a different category. >> uh-huh. i know willie is going to get to more on taiwan in just a moment, but, richard haass, can i ask, just broadly, do we understand this perhaps as china and russia sensing u.s. weakness in any way and capitalizing on it? >> the short answer is yes. they've seen what's happened over the last few years, whether it was not honoring the so-called red line in syria under the obama administration. then the trump administration moved away from american allies, abandoned the kurds in the middle east. then you had the u.s. exit from afghanistan. they see the united states in eternal disarray. joe was talking about this -- david, rather. there is aspects of pre-1914 internationally. if we look at the united states, there's aspects of the 1850s internally. they see a united states that's divided and distracted. everybody is talking about build back better or america first. yeah, i do think there's a sense of opportunity given the united states, which for the last three quarters of a century, played this outsized role in the world, that we're no longer prepared to do it. it is simply not a priority for us, and we no longer have the political unity. yeah, i think both rusia and china are intrigued about whether this opens strategic opportunities for them. >> there is another layer. the biden administration invited taiwan to the summit for democracy next month. 110 countries are included in the state department's invitation for the virtual event, aiming to strengthen democracies worldwide. neither china nor russia is included. a spokesperson for china said, the inclusion of taiwan was a, quote, mistake. why is this significant, david? we heard further from china yesterday. they said the united states needs to deal with china as, what it calls, one china, and not with taiwan as the self-governing democracy, which you and i know it is. >> so the chinese will be upset by the inclusion of taiwan in the summit of democracies for two reasons. first, it gives taiwan a quasi-sovereign status, meaning it is one of the nations that will be invited to this country. of course, china says, no, taiwan is part of the nation of china. the u.s. on paper, at least, continues to recognize it. more fundamentally, this sum of democracies is going to remind the world about what is different from taiwan. taiwanese democracy is amazing. young taiwanese are passionate about the kinds of freedom they have. they're like the kids in hong kong. they don't want to live in an authoritarian country, and chinese look to taiwan and see this continuing democracy. it worries beijing. it's a significant step. i think one interesting question is whether other countries invited, the frances, germanys, our other democratic friends around the world, will get nervous because the chinese are really going to turn up the heat on this, and will be more weary of taiwan than the u.s. would like them to be. >> taiwan is an extraordinary country. i had the opportunity while in congress to go over to the first inauguration of the first democratically elected president, and was struck by the country, by the business climate, by the culture. it is a strong, vibrant country, richard. i do wonder if we are starting to finally see some pushback to the continued bad behavior of president xi. we've seen him move on hong kong. of course, the expansion of concentration camps with uighurs. the continued militarization of the south china sea. bombastic rhetoric over the past several months. we have played this fiction with china. you know, taiwan is a country whose name shall not be mentioned. i'm just wondering if the united states is finally starting to push back against this bad behavior and if president xi and the rest of the leadership in china will soon find out that, at some point, their abhorrent behavior is going -- they're going to be held accountable for it. >> well, joe, there is a consensus that china is acting badly at home and abroad, and we are pushing back. i think the entire strategic orientation of u.s. foreign policy is now moving to counter china. you are seeing greater willingness to come to taiwan's defense if need be. i think that's as far as you're taking it. we don't see taiwan as a country. we see only one china. the final status has to be worked out peacefully between the mainland and taiwan, and we don't want to provoke a crisis. if taiwan moves in the direction of independence, if it declares independence, if it is recognized as sovereign, i do think that will trigger a conflict. that would be a conflict -- >> but, richard -- >> -- the united states would have to -- >> richard, we don't want crisi been seemingly provoking a crisis after another crisis after another crisis. at some point, the united states needs to respond. i'm wondering whether you think inviting taiwan to this democracy summit was a good response. >> i get uneasy with these. i understand the arguments on those, joe. it's symbolic. i'd much rather the united states increase its ability to come to taiwan's defense. deter china from using military force against it. get japan and other countries much more involved in collective defense. we have to be very careful at reiterating the basics. look, it's worked for over 40 years now. the three communiques with china, with nixon and kissinger, their negotiations with mao. we do not want to necessarily want to push it too far. >> well, and, of course, we've been saying, richard, you and i both have been saying, we have to figure out a way to deal with china, to work with china, to find common grounds, to build a partnership with china, because we're going to be sharing the world stage for the next half century. but that's a two-way street. at some point, china is going to have to understand that we're going to push back. i guess that's up to people in the biden administration and smart people like you to figure out the best way, the safest way, to push back against their abhorrent behavior which continues daily. finally, david ignatius, i wanted to take note of a positive sign the united states congress -- you have ranking member in the senate on foreign affairs committee actually calling out republicans that are blocking ambassadorships. people have come on the show stating the united states isn't represented across the globe, and we are weaker because of it. our ambassadors are being held up on the senate floor. actually, you had the ranking member actually speak out and condemn the blockade on nominees. positive sign, isn't it? >> absolutely. this is overdue, i have to say. the way both parties, to some extent, have of holding our diplomatic representatives abroad as hostages in what are petty political games has got to stop. if i hear one thing from foreign leaders that i talk to, it's in a period of contraction in terms of the foreign policy. how are we going to deal with the china problem without an ambassador there? how can we not have an ambassador in france, britain, key countries where we have alliances? people need to understand, especially senators who want to be smart enough to get this, we need our representation in a period where we're being challenged. without it, we are much more vulnerable to pressure. >> richard haass and david ignatius, thank you for being on to talk about these stories this morning as they develop. moving to the house select committee investigating the january 6th attack on the u.s. capitol. that i issued another round of subpoenas. the bipartisan panel is demanding testimony and documents from leaders of the proud boys, the oath keepers, and other groups involved in the violence leading up to and on january 6th. committee chair bennie thompson writes in a statement, quote, we believe the individuals and organizations we subpoenaed today have relevant information about how violence erupted at the capitol and the preparation leading up to this violent attack. willie? >> let's bring in senior reporter for nbc news who has been covering this world for so long, ben collins. good morning. thanks for coming on. obviously, oath keepers, proud boys, those are broad terms that capture a lot of people. who exactly are we talking about here with the subpoenas, and what is the significance? >> sure. so with the oath keepers, it is stewart rhodes. so stewart rhodes is the head of the oath keepers. in the days around january 6th, he was telling people what to bring to the riots to make it look like you don't have weapons but you do have weapons. he's like collapsible batons are in a gray area. bring flashlights and d-cell flashlights. they can be used as weapons. you know, he was sort of upset with the president on january 6th because he didn't give enough specific instructions, he thought. he said the patriots are taking it into their own hands here. that's what he said to his followers that day. you know, in the run-up to that on telegram and discords, these groups, specifically, thought there would be violence that day and pushed that way. the head of the proud boys is also in this batch of subpoenas. even though he never made it to d.c., he was brought in on a weapons charge beforehand. arrested on a weapons charge. he is an interesting case. the proud boys believe he is a federal agent because he worked with the feds in the past. they believe he is some sort of, i guess, i don't know -- they believe he is a front for something else within that community. the third, most interesting case is robert patrick lewis, who works with this group called first amendment. kind of a brand-new group from last september. really got kicked up around this election fraud conspiracy. was tied to people like mike flynn. this guy is a veteran and has -- you know, was kind of new to this organizing space but was really good at it. created a bunch of rallies before january 6th. he's always had this public stance of anti-violence. january 6th, it looks like he got swept up. he said, today is the day the true battles begin. so these are groups that were talking about violence in the run-up to the 6th or on the 6th itself. >> they were explicit about that. part of what the committee is looking into, ben, is a level of coordination between the groups you described to us and people in the white house. political leadership, members of congress perhaps. to what extent have you seen that in your travels online? >> it's really hard to know. there was always this dance with them. you know, specifically with rhodes, he said, you know, the president, just as i suspected, isn't going to tell us to go to the capitol and take that over. but the president did say, "let's all go to the capitol. here, our voices will be heard." as "rolling stone" reported, these people used burner phones to talk to people at the white house. they knew what they were doing was not on the level. you know, it is going to be very hard to unravel this. they always use encrypted communications, whether it's things like the signal app or back ends to get around to people. they know they're not doing necessarily great things. it is a very difficult thing. i don't know how this committee is going to find all this stuff out. >> ben, good morning. jonathan lemire. obviously, we are seeing some of the members of these extremist groups be swept up in this, but law enforcement believes they're still a threat. certainly people i talked to say they fear the political violence will be more part of the national discourse, if you will, this midterms and next presidential cycle, than perhaps ever before. you hear the occasional news about a rally at the capitol, state capitol, and nothing materialized that's noteworthy, not yet. give us an update where law enforcementbelieves the threat stands from these groups across the nation. >> the threats decentralized in the last few months. they realize they can't do this out and about anymore. even with the proud boys telegram channels, which are the de facto front for these things, the people running the telegram channels effectively run the movements there. they're not as explicit as they were in the days before the 6th because they didn't think -- then they thought they had immunity. now they don't think they have that anymore. they're running through, like i said, encorruptencrypted apps. they're doing things a little more private than previously. these groups work in satellite ways. proud boys groups are separate from each other on the east coast and the west coast. they go from the pacific northwest to california. on the east coast, largely a different group of people. there is a centralized mission and message there. in large part, they're to one service, and it's, you know, protecting the people who support donald trump in general. that's their larger goal. >> ben, i guess to follow up on that, would you say the movement is stronger today than it was on january 6th? you actually think they've gained strength post insurrection versus having it be diminished with all of the, you know, legal that they're going through and the violence that happened on that day? >> i definitely believe that's true. i think it is important to note that they will discard leaders willy-nilly. you see people like -- for example, in charlottesville at this trial, those people are persona non grata. cantwell is referred to as the crying nazi. richard spencer used to be a thought leader in the white supremacist movement. now, who knows? a lot of people don't think he should be in the space anymore. they'll get rid of leaders and keep the message, push the message forward. they'll find new heros, whether the people want to be heros or not. people like kyle rittenhouse, who i'm sure doesn't want to be the center of a white supremacist movement. they have lionized this man and created some hero worship around him. they are creating new figures, new caricatures in real time, and they're doing it using these spaces in these, you know, communications that built up over the last four, five years. it is absolutely larger than ever. it is absolutely more atone to regular american civilians. that's the difference. it's not a fringe thing. they're trying to take over contemporary, mainstream politics. >> frightening. ben collins, thank you so much for your reporting. thanks for being on this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," the man accused of driving his suv into a crowd at a wisconsin christmas parade makes his first court appearance. this as we learn that a sixth victim, an 8-year-old boy, has died in the aftermath of the crash. plus, three of america's biggest pharmacy chains have been found liable for helping fuel america's opioid crisis. what that decision means for thousands of similar lawsuits across the country. also ahead, with coronavirus cases on the rise, the biden administration seeks an emergency order to reinstate its workplace vaccine mandate. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. as someone who resembles someone else, i appreciate that liberty mutual knows everyone's unique. that's why they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. oh, yeah. that's the spot. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ [gaming sounds] [gaming sounds] [gaming sounds] just think, he'll be driving for real soon. every new chevy equinox comes standard with chevy safety assist, including automatic emergency braking. find new peace of mind. find new roads. chevrolet. ray loves vacations. but his diabetes never seemed to take one. everything felt like a 'no'. everything. but then ray went from no to know. with freestyle libre 2, now he knows his glucose levels when he needs to. and... when he wants to. so ray... can be ray. take the mystery out of your glucose levels, and lower your a1c. now you know. try it for free. visit freestylelibre.us ♪ ♪ now you know. amazing... jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks ...it gets a little old. [thud] [clunk] [ding] ugh... every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "morning joe." >> look at that. >> great shot of the orlando cam. >> what? >> of course, it was taken from mika's penthouse apartment over magic kingdom in orlando. >> look at that traffic, guys. >> by the way, you do ask, so many people will go to disney and, of course, universal, the greatest theme park, really, this side of the comcast commerce tree, but the traffic is already picking up there but the weather is so delightful, willie. but the traffic is so frightful, something like that. >> at least we have it. this time last year, there was no traffic. >> exactly. >> willie, any big thanksgiving plans for you? >> well, i wish i was going to universal, now that you mention it. it is the world's greatest theme park. we go constantly. kids love it there. we'll be home. we're blessed to have family within driving distance, both sides of our family. tonight, we go to my family in connecticut, see my parents, my sister, my nephews. tomorrow, we go out to jersey for the big feast made by christina's wonderful mother, who puts on a show every holiday season. how about you guys? >> that sounds pretty exciting. mika, what are your thanksgiving plans? >> well, willie, i'm in training. it's not going well. >> are you doing it? >> 8 miles yesterday. >> good. >> i did 8 miles yesterday, and my time was so bad. i'm going to try to do 8 again, 8 again, and 10 over this thanksgiving weekend. we'll see how it goes. i'm kind of embarrassed at how slow i am. >> you only have to do one big one a week, mika. give yourself a smaller couple during the week, like a 3 or a 4. then on the saturday or sunday, then you hit with the 8 or the 10. you don't want to -- >> i get so mad at myself for being so slow. i feel i need to do it again, faster. this is not good. i need to talk to you because i really want to raise money like you did. i want to beat your time, and it is never going to happen. >> never. >> on top of it, i'll be cooking for joe and our family, and then i'm going to watch joe, jack, and the apples play football. >> we have a turkey bowl thing. this is something that happened up in connecticut. mike would have the turkey bowl, and we'd play football. all the parents get together and play football on thanksgiving. >> i'll be jogging around the football field. >> it is actually, though, one of jack's friends having a football game. excited about that. >> nice. >> you know, 11, 12-year-old comes along. i just got to say, if they come across into my zone, willie, you know what happens. >> stop it. >> forearm shiver. >> no. >> it's my zone. stay away. in fact, it's so funny, i got my old tatum jersey. yeah, we're going to do that. i'm looking forward to that. sure all the kids are as well. >> it'll be wonderful. >> wonderful thanksgiving. also going to be watching get back while reading the lyrics by paul mccartney. this is a beatles thanksgiving for me. it is about as much fun. i got into the lyrics last night. about as much fun as i can imagine having. i'm a boring guy, i know. tell us about your thanksgiving plans. >> i'm not going to concus children like joe on the flag football field, but i haven't been cooking much since having the baby. i'll make broccoli casserole, sweet potato casserole, low-key at home, southern food. i should follow your lead, mika, and go for a big run, but probably won't. we'll see how the cooking goes. >> i love it. with your baby girl. >> so great. that's a southern thing. some sugar in here, then we're going to put some more sugar in here. >> and some butta. >> yeah. >> bless your heart, everybody. >> bless your heart. i love it. jonathan lemire, you going to boston? >> staying home, just the four of us for thanksgiving. >> he's going to sleep. >> yeah, thanksgiving is my favorite holiday. food, family, football, probably some helmet-to-helmet hits in the backyard with my boys as well. >> targeting. >> no flags in this league. >> love that. >> it'll be great. it is also my birthday this weekend, and i'm getting the present i want, which is the ability to sleep past 3:15 a few days in a row. it'll be a good couple of days. >> i like that very much. it is true, there are no spearing penalties in the lemire's backyard. one thing i like about him. boston born, boston bred. let me ask, i've never been to a thanksgiving event in brooklyn. do you wear all black? what's a brooklyn hipster thanksgiving look like? >> it's vegan. >> no. my thanksgiving is definitely not vegan. joe, it is a little bit of -- there are hipster traditions, i suppose. we walk around being vaguely disappointed in things. >> i like that. >> we do a much more a traditional new england roots. we fight over cranberry thoughts. >> walking around saying, we don't deserve good things. nothing we ever say in the south. >> what about bill karins? >> we need bill in a second. first, i want to go in, because this is so exciting. i asked alex, our executive producer, what he was doing for thanksgiving. i must say -- >> joe. >> no, it was straight out of a "christmas story." >> sitting right there? >> no, he is not going to a chinese restaurant for christmas. >> don't tell people what he is doing. >> the next best thing. tell us what you're going to be doing for thanksgiving. >> our tradition is noon filet mignon, capital grill. >> wow. >> nice! >> look at that. >> that is good. >> geez. >> must make the big bucks. >> very traditional. >> nice job, alex. >> expensive dinner. >> i think that's some of the first thanksgivings. little known fact, they were done at capital grill. >> in the back room. >> we don't want to know what t.j. is doing, right? >> tell us what you're doing. >> i don't think we want to know. >> taking your family out on the sleigh ride with your horse? >> why wouldn't you want to know? we'll be at home. boys are home from college, so that's exciting. michael millersville university is marching in the philadelphia thanksgiving day parade. >> nice. >> that's great. >> fantastic. >> amazing. >> are you going to get out of bed and go to watch? >> i'm going to watch it online. >> very good. what a good dad. good dad indeed. finally, bill karins. >> yay. >> first of all, two things. tell us what's going to happen thanksgiving weekend in your house. also, what's going to happen on thanksgiving day in the lower 48? >> you going to ruin it for us? >> what's the forecast for this thanksgiving weekend? >> i'm not going to ruin it for a lot. for me, 5k with the family, turkey trot. make the green bean casserole. devilled eggs. then the two-hour drive family time. if i don't, i'll join willie and his family. they'll be a couple houses away. >> you're up the street. >> nice. >> that's right. >> let's get into this. they call this the busiest travel day of the year. it is a cold morning, and that's kind of the worst of it. if you can deal with the cold, you're fine. it's not going to affect the drive. airports should be fine. it is cold in florida. 38 in panama city. 40 in jacksonville. if you can deal with the cold, you'll be okay. it'll be sunny. sunglasses no needed east of th mississippi. the airports should be just fine. minor air delays in minneapolis, chicago, detroit. east coast should be fine. thanksgiving day, we're dealing with rain and thunderstorms. corpus christi to houston, late in the afternoon and heading up to memphis, the nashville area, keep that in mind. friends in the northwest will get a lot of rain in thursday and friday. getting back will be worse than getting to thanksgiving. we're going to watch a storm system with snow in new england friday. then another minor snowstorm on saturday. heads up to anyone trying to return in the northeast on sunday. there is a chance we're going to have a little snowstorm kicking through, especially sunday night into monday morning. that could be the first snow of the season for areas like philadelphia, new york city, hartford, boston. we'll keep that in mind for the end of the weekend. getting to thanksgiving, guys, looks about as good as it ever has been. good luck to everyone on the roads and in the air today. >> all right. bill karins, thank you very much. thank you, everybody. coming up, for all the talk of joe biden's struggles, there is a past president who could pave a path forward for him. is ronald reagan the key to biden's comeback? 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>> it was like a brush of wind. all those kids, it was like they weren't even there. >> we are all waukesha. >> reporter: a devastated community finding comfort in grieving together. >> meagan fitzgerald reporting from waukesha. the 8-year-old who died yesterday was named jackson sparks. he was a member of the waukesha blazers wolf pack baseball team. he was marching with his baseball team. his 12-year-old brother, tucker, also was injured. tucker has been discharged from the hospital. sadly and tragically, jackson didn't make it through. there are still children in critical condition. we're sending our love and our prayers to all those families this holiday. the fate of three men accused of killing ahmaud arbery now is in the hands of the jury, as deliberations continue today. nbc news correspondent sam brock reports from brunswick, georgia. >> reporter: for the family and friends of ahmaud arbery, after months of agony, the jury in this case now deliberating. >> i do think that we will come back with a guilty verdict. we will get justice for ahmaud. >> reporter: at points during the prosecution's rebuttal, graphic photographs of the crime scene causing ahmaud arbery's mom to cover her face. three men in this case face nine charges, including aggravated assault and murder with mall as aforethought, which can be formed in an instant. >> it had nothing to do with anger or hatred for a person. it deals exclusively with the concept of intent. intent to kill. intent to cause serious bodily harm. >> reporter: the prosecutor telling the jury a self-defense claim cannot apply when you create the danger in confronting an unarmed victim. >> this isn't the wild west. he went toward mr. arbery with a gun. >> reporter: a message they hope sticks with the jury. >> what's potentially the power of these last two hours, being the final thing the jury will hear before they start deliberating? >> you have a fresh jury. the jury has had all the evidence. so it's great that right before they go into deliberation, they'll be hearing from the prosecution, making their case, and hopefully getting the conviction. >> reporter: throughout the trial, the defense staking its case on a series of neighborhood burglaries. they say the three defendants were trying to peacefully confront a man they believed was at least trespassing. >> these are real experiences, real people who were very scared. so they took it upon themselves to do something about it. >> reporter: now, the fates of three men and the families devastated by their actions, hanging in the balance. >> joining us, legal analyst maya wiley and danny cevallos, who you saw in the piece there. maya, i'll begin with you. as the jury sits and we wait, and the defendants wait, and ahmaud arbery's family waits for this verdict, just your view of how the case was prosecuted? many legal analysts we've been talking to the last week or so thought prosecutors made the case, but you can't account for a jury. >> that's absolutely right. we saw a prosecutor deliver a master class in how to prosecute one of these cases, which is to be very clear about the facts. make sure the facts are coming out at trial. but reiterate the points over and over again, as we saw in her closing and in her rebuttal. which was, you never heard anyone say ahmaud arbery threatened them. you never heard anyone say ahmaud arbery committed a crime they witnessed. you never heard anyone say anything that would give them a reason to make a citizens arrest or have grounds for self-defense. then laying out everything that happened in the lead-up to the shooting that demonstrated that the defendants actually, frankly, instigated the violence that ended in his death. >> danny, maya outlined what the prosecution did. talk about what the defense did. what was their attempt to explain what happened? we know they seem comfortable with the setting. they didn't ask for a change of venue. they got a jury with 11 out of 12 jurors who are white, perhaps placed to their advantage. walk us through what their argument was. >> the entire argument for the defense had to be citizens arrest. it is the key to the case. if the jury believes that this was a lawful citizens arrest, it may be a defense to all of the crimes charged. because if the defense can advance the idea of the totality of the circumstances -- yes, it is true they didn't see arbery committing a crime or running off a construction site with materials or tools or anything that he stole, but the defense argues that it is not about what they saw. and the jury instruction doesn't require that. now, there is a huge debate there. i'm going to say, this jury instruction is a ripe ground for appeal. because this law, which has since been repealed, as written, was drafted in the 1860s. it is poorly drafted, or was poorly drafted, and an appeals court, if there is a conviction, might look at this and say, it was confusing. the interpretation is essentially you have to see where the crime was chieted. -- committed. the defense says this was a neighborhood beset by crime, and tensions were high. that led to their reasoning for going out and chasing arbery. >> maya, one of the great -- i thought one of the things the defense did really well was they -- i'm sorry, the prosecution did very well was they kept saying to the jury, "you can't claim self-defense if you are the one who caused -- put yourself in that position of danger." you can't claim self-defense if you're the one who put yourself in danger and could have avoided it easily. it seems to me that's something that the jury is going to be grappling with as they go back today. i thought the prosecution laid it out very clearly. >> i completely agree. look, i mean, danny is absolutely right about what the defense was trying to do, which was establish that there wasn't a law violation because they could make a citizens arrest. but what the prosecutor did was remind the jury constantly, five minutes, ahmaud arbery was avoiding them. he was running. he was -- and they were yelling at him. remember, they're driving, and this is before the jury, a truck that has a confederate flag on it, with people who are armed in it who were screaming at him. this is the picture the prosecution is putting out there. what the jury has to do is say to itself, one, to danny's point, did they have sufficient grounds to say they believed a crime was being committed? they had to actually have seen it or had direct knowledge, and that's the question here that they'll have to decide. but also, to your point, is how on god's green earth, if he is running for five minutes, and all he is doing is running, it gives you every opportunity to call the police, to have the police know. you can follow him. there is nothing illegal about driving down the street and following him until a cop car shows up. none of those are the things they did. the prosecution did something else that was really well done for a prosecutor, which is, to demonstrate all their inconsistent statements. because a big part of what the jury is going to decide is who they believe. so the prosecutor kept saying, "really? they didn't say that to the police. they didn't say they were doing a citizens arrest to the police." >> danny, do you think that the burden has been met here by the prosecution to establish that arbery was not a threat to these men who shot and killed him? >> as in the rittenhouse case, the prosecution has the burden to disprove self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt. they adopted a provocation theory, that these men went to the problem and, therefore, can't claim self-defense. but the key is -- and everything maya said is exactly right except -- well, in addition, if the jury finds these men had probable cause, the georgia statute as it was drafted permitted someone to go out, chase someone, lay their hands on him. these are statutes that date back to the 1860s when there were no police. citizens were the police. do we need them today? i don't think so. i don't think it is a good idea. do you trust citizens to go out and arrest people? i don't. >> danny. >> yes, joe? >> probable cause for what? >> exactly right. so the defense's theory is that there was probable cause to believe there was a crime. if it is burglary, folks say, wait, he was just on the property. there was no felony committed. burglary doesn't require a completed felony. burglary just requires the entering of the dwelling with the intent to commit a felony therein. it is not about what he actually did. it's about what the defendants reasonably perceived. if they didn't reasonably perceive that, they didn't reasonably have probable cause, and the citizens arrest claim will fail. >> i want to make one point here. danny is making the right legal points. the defense essentially is that white people were afraid. i say that because there's also evidence in the record that there were folks who were white who did the exact same thing ahmaud arbery did. yet, there was no let's hop in our car, let's get him, let's trap him like a rat, which is one of the statements made, i think by greg mcmichael. so when i'm hearing the evidence that the defense is posing, and this is why the makeup of the jury matters, what the defense is really doing is saying they had reason to be afraid even though they didn't witness anything. but the reason is because ahmaud arbery was a black man. even one of the lawyers did something that was so blatantly racist, which was to say he had dirty toes. which is actually -- one, there was no fact in evidence. two, completely irrelevant. whether he had dirty toes or not. >> well, of course, don't forget -- >> so wrong. >> -- after al sharpton went in there, he started complaining about black preachers, then started talking about fried chicken and what if colonel sand sanders was in the back row in white face. maya, there's so many questions to ask coming off that, but i guess my question is this, this statute that is causing concern, that danny is bringing up, it reminds me of the open carry law up in wisconsin. again, you have laws that are on the books that, when taken back into jury rooms, can bring back some extraordinarily disturbing decisions by the jury. how important is it for people to get involved in politics on the local level and make sure that these citizen arrest statutes, that are basically from, you know, the 1800s, a bygon era, how important is it they get changed so jury instructions don't include antiquated laws? >> it is critical. you know, this was a law that came into existence to enable white people to deputize themselves to return black people to slavery. that's the history of this law. frankly, the history of slavely -- slavery is part of why we've had a growth in permitting these rampant self-defense cases. so we do need people to get actively engaged and also to educate themselves. these laws aren't keeping anyone safe. >> maya wiley and danny cevallos, thank you very much. we'll be following this for sure. top of the hour. jonathan lemire and elise jordan are still with us. joining the conversation, we have white house editor for "politico," sam stein. op-ed columnist for the "new york times," michelle goldberg joins us this hour. with less than a hour before the midterm elections, former president donald trump believes that campaigning on the big lie will boost gop voter turnout. according to the "wall street journal," trump thinks pushing claims of the 2020 election will help republicans regain control of congress next year and the white house in 2024. he reportedly floated the idea of an early presidential campaign announcement in order to motivate his base, according to people familiar with the conversations. but the "journal" writes, fellow republicans have dissuaded him from that strategy for now, the people said. but the disagreement over whether mr. trump's presence in the midterms would be a better motivator for democratic voters than republicans, not over the use of voter fraud as an issue, they said. sam stein, it seems like a terrible misreading of this political situation. what a shock for donald trump. talking about election fraud when it worked so horribly for the republicans in georgia. also, i think on the other side, it is quite interesting that using donald trump, attacking donald trump in virginia didn't work as well. so it just may be that that old adage about politics, it's about the future, not the past, may be coming into play here. may be a terrible thing, actually, for republicans to do. >> i agree with that. the evidence of georgia was that all this talk of voter fraud, which is a lie, all of that talk was dissuading voters, republican voters from going to the polls. >> right. >> the obvious logical conclusion is if my vote isn't going to count, why cast it, right? obviously, this is a bizarre calculation from trump. my suspicion is he believes it keeps him relevant. it also makes him the center of the conversation. i will say, there's like a, you know, macro issue here that can't be ignored. the more that he injects it into the center of the political discussion, the more he campaigns upon the notion that there was election fraud in 2020, the more engrained it is in the voter psyche. that's hugely damaging for democracy. the hope right after january 6th was that that moment would be so catalyzing for the pro-democracy forces so as to render trump sort of on the fringe. if anything, he's trying to mainstream the type of conditions, the type of psychology that compelled all those people to show up at the capitol. if he is, indeed, planning to use this as a midterm issue, not just a re-election issue, we'll have to live with the consequences of election fraud being, you know, a point of belief for 50% of the country. that's deeply, deeply problematic. >> michelle, obviously, there's always going to be some constituency for whatever donald trump is saying. they'll follow him there, even if it is talking about an election from four years prior, if we look ahead to the next election, presidential election. if you look at what has transpired since donald trump lost, mainly glenn youngkin winning in virginia, and the governors conference we talked about, where the focus was, how did glenn youngkin do it? how did he win? you heard blueprint and road map. a nod to trump voters, yes, but it seems, anyway, a focus on things voters care about, not elections from years ago. >> look, i think different places are different, frankly. you do have plenty of candidates all over the country -- i'm thinking of blake masters in arizona running for senate -- who does say he doesn't think that the 2020 election was free and fair. i think we're going to have a lot of candidates that have been running on the big lie. glenn youngkin went for this campaign on critical race theory, and he figured out how to turn out the trump base without alienating the republicans that were alienated by trump. i think that's why republicans have run with the critical race theory issue, book bans, anger over materials they think are transgressive in school libraries. it's because the culture war issues, instead of running against biden's policy, are things that can still turn out the trump voters in the absence of trump. >> the latest op-ed for "the new york times" entitled "the ronald reagan guide to joe biden's political future," jamelle brytes this. as his first year in office comes to a close, an ambitious new prosecute is on the decline. his legislative agenda has stalled in a fraction congress. voters are angry over inflation and other economic concerns, and he is struggling to find his footing on the world stage. if elections for congress were held today, there's no question that the president would lose out to the mounting backlash against his administration. what year is this? not 2021, but 1981, and the president is ronald reagan. who, at the end of his first year in office, was described in exactly these terms. as the president heads into his second year, smith wrote in "the new york times" magazine in january of 1982, a lot of the magic is gone and the politics of optimism has fallen on hard times. reagan's present headaches, smith continued, reflect the life cycle of the modern american presidency. flashy freshman beginnings followed by a sophomore slump with some third year recovery or dazzling achievement. >> michelle, it is fascinating. i've seen articles from 1983 saying ronald reagan was too old to run for re-election. already, political insiders inside the republican party were trying to figure out whether they were going to be able to push a weak george h.w. bush to the presidency or go somewhere else. the biden administration, they understand this happened to reagan in '81 and '82. this happened to barack obama in 2009/2010 with the elections. this happened to bill clinton. bill clinton had a dreadful 1993 and 1994, only to come roaring back in '95 and get re-elected in '96. i mean, this is -- you know, history just keeps repeating itself. i will say this one thing about people inside the biden white house, they've been around long enough to go, yeah, we've seen this, like, about five times already. >> you know, i think that's right. another point that jamelle makes is similar leaders all over the world, new zealand, uk, canada, many other countries, have ratings that are as low or lower than biden. a lot of it is, you know, a reaction to both sort of macro economic conditions and the continuation of the pandemic. i think the difference is that when you have a party that is radicalized against democracy, the normal oscillations of power, the normal oscillations between the two parties, become -- the stakes are just much higher. because when republicans get into power, what they do is they change the rules to make it harder to dislodge them when the voters change their mind. and so in the future, it's not going to matter probably if the voters decide that they no longer, you know, support republicans for congress. right now, polls show that more voters want republicans to win congress in the midterms than want democrats. but in the future, it's not going to matter that much what the voters want because of gerrymandering. if republicans take power, what will they do with it? >> elise jordan, i'm curious what your thought is. so much of what we talk about, whether it is jury instructions in witness, whether it is open carry laws, where an underage kid is carrying around an ar-15 in the middle of a riot and that's not a crime in and of itself, it has a lot to do with the laws passed by the legislature. we talk about gerrymandering. all of this doesn't just magically happen, right? pixie dust from right-wing gods, it is not sprinkled from the skies. this happens because, at some point, democrats forgot how to win elections in state legislatures in wisconsin, in michigan, in pennsylvania. i hate gerrymandering. i wish we could do away with gerrymandering. i wish there were a national -- some national compact that would allow us to do away with gerrymandering. even gerrymandering doesn't just happen. gerrymandering occurs, and those lines are cut up in a way that don't help democrats in a lot of states, because democrats don't win elections there in the first place. we all say the same thing on tv. i hear it all day. i feel it. it's not like i'm coldhearted. i'm very worried about all this too. but at some point, damn it, figure out how to win local elections. >> joe, you know as well as i do that big republican donors will invest in those local elections and state legislatures are important. they understand the importance. there is a concerted push within the party to have that kind of power at the local level, so that the laws are in place that are favorable and conducive to winning elections. this is what has been happening in the aftermath of 2020, when you look at how republicans have seized on attacking so many voter law. they want to make voting harder, and they don't want a repeat of 2020, where the pandemic-era voting requirements were looser. that's a complaint that you hear from republicans who don't necessarily -- republican voters who don't necessarily believe in the big lie, per se, but they think that because it was easier to vote, that joe biden was able to win in an environment when he otherwise would not have been able to. >> similar theme, this one from the "wall street journal." a piece entitled "can biden come back? many others have." by william golston. as the third year of his presidency began, george h.w. bush was hiding high. his job approval was at 58% and surged to nearly 90% a year later after a divisive gop convention. his approval then sank to 29%. despite a partial recovery in the next three months, he lost the presidential election. after a bumpy two years, bill clinton led his party to a huge loss in 1994, handing control of the house to republicans for the first time in four decades. 18 months later, he won re-election by eight points. by the midterm elections of 2010, barack obama's job approval had fallen by 20 points from its peak. democrats had lost 63 house seats. the most since 1938. yet, over the next two years, despite a painfully slow recovery from the great recession, mr. obama's standing with the public gradually improved. he ended up winning re-election by a comfortable margin. joe, the takeaways from all of this? you're so good at this. this is what you do. >> thank you, dear. very sweet of you. >> he's so interested in it. >> sam, i think most people looking at the '92 election would say that if the election were held three months later, after the economy began a pretty strong recovery, george h.w. bush would have probably been re-elected president even in '92. so much of it has to do with economic cycles. obviously, republicans use culture wars increasingly. but when the economy is going in a strong, positive direction, so much of that is just window dressing. it is interesting. i saw on twitter last night jon favreau retweeted and said every democratic leader should look at this. retweeted something from alg research. it was a virginia post-election research. my god, every one of these, it was so damning for the democratic party right now. our weak national brand left us vulnerable. voters are unhappy with the direction of the country and don't think we get it. voters believe the economy is bad, and no amount of stats can change their mind about it. voters think we are focused on social issues and not the economy. but you go through every one of these focus group statements, and they'll go, yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, yeah, that's bad stuff. we don't like it. we think the democrats are disconnected. but we're angry with what terry said about parents not being involved in schools, and more angry about the democrats shutting schools, and they don't seem to be upset about it. we're upset about inflation, and we're not hearing terry say anything. they're talking about donald trump. youngkin is talking about cutting sales tax on our groceries. time and time again, you look through this, and every democrat should look through it. they're not focused on all the things we say they're focused on. they're focused on inflation. they're focused on help wanted signs. they're focused about going into restaurants and half the restaurants being closed down because they can't find the workers. they're focused on supply sign, the bottleneck for supplying their stores. it's a lot of just, well -- you read all this and come away going, huh, it's still the economy, stupid. >> yeah. pretty much. i was talking to a democratic strategist, ken bear, advised clinton, obama. he made a point, and i don't know how much i agree, but it is interesting. the 2020 election was the anti-change election. by that, he meant people wanted to just kind of return to normalcy. four years of donald trump. once in a 100-year pandemic. highly disruptive. schools were closed. jobs were closed. bars were closed. gyms were closed. they wanted to get back to feeling like life was a little bit normal. biden comes along, and he's the most normal candidate you can possibly build in a lab, right? he said, i've been here 40 years. i've been in politics 40 years. i'm not disruptive. i get what you want. i'm normal joe from scranton. people flocked to that. they flocked to him in the democratic primary and the general election. now, with democrats in power, the agenda is popular. people broadly support the agenda when you ask on specifics. i think in the abstract, what's happening is people just want to feel normal again. they want to get back to work. they want to go to a restaurant and say, oh, there is a serve who are can serve me on time. they want to be able to put their kids in school. the administration is, yes, we want that too, but we want to open child care services so you can feel like you can, you know, go back to work. we want to outfit schools with all this stuff so it can be reopened in the age of covid. people just want the results a lot quicker, i think. that's what's happened here. that's what ken's argument was. until democrats get the normalcy, they'll flail a little politicly. >> the takeaway line, voters aren't happy with solutions from us. democrats are saying, they think we're just fighting over legislation and not focusing on them. they don't think we're doing anything to address the big issues, which are lack of workers and inflation. listen to this line, jonathan lemire. the takeaway from all of this which underlines what sam just said. in general, they just aren't seeing the smoother ride they thought they would get after voting out trump and bringing in biden. they want normalcy. they want things to be calm again. they want to move beyond trump. the biden voters who switch to youngkin are saying they're not getting the smoother ride we thought when voting trump out. another interesting thing, none of the voters are going -- and i see this in survey after survey. people are complaining about biden. people are complaining about a lot of things. nobody in the surveys are going, looking back, i sure wish i would have voted for donald trump. i made a mistake. nobody is saying that in any of these surveys. an ominous sign for the 45th president. >> yeah. a number of compelling arguments there, joe. we'll tick through a few. you're right, certainly trump's own -- that's the fear republicans have. though they stand poised to do well in the midterms and 2024, they're not sure donald trump is the answer, despite the loyalty he inspires from the base, that he is not going to win the independents and swing voters. they can't take back the white house. that's number one. republicans are far more interested in the culture issues than in solutions. they're trying to play up, you know -- for instance, kyle rittenhouse, where was he last night? mar-a-lago. guest to the former president. pictures making their way around social media today. leaning into the hot button issues. the white house understands, the people i talked to there, day in and day out, that this is a results business. they need to show americans they're getting the job done. they had success early on. when were joe biden's poll numbers high? last spring when the covid relief bill passed, vaccine came out. americans felt we're turning the corner. tumultuous trump years are behind us. we'll get through it. the surge of delta over the summer took people off guard. obviously, now the covid-related -- pandemic-related supply chain issues and inflation. therefore, there is an impatience there. they're feeling like, hey, we voted for normalcy and we haven't had it yet. the white house is saying, look, we believe with patience, we'll get there. the two-part agenda will be passed, and americans will start feeling tangible benefits early next spring. they also feel like next spring is when both the inflation crisis should hopefully pass and virus cases fade again. they do think results are coming, they're just not there yet. that's their argument. >> okay. >> i said it before, mika. i suspect that, eventually, inflation will cycle out. it may get worse before it gets better. oil may go up to $100 per barrel. you also -- we may have another surge in covid. i do think, though, especially covid washes out in the spring, all the advancements we're making, i really do believe, and this is the important thing, that americans are going to see a return to normalcy, as far as shut downs and covid mandates. i think we will see that next year. the parting power will benefit from that. inflation will likely cycle out, but that is going to require the biden administration and democrats and republicans in congress getting it right. >> michelle, in your latest piece for the "times," you talk about political despair being an issue for the democratic party. in reference to a republican party that is, as you put it, winking at the violent intimidation of it political enemies, you write, quote, i look at the future, and i see rule without recourse by people who either approve of terrorizing liberals or welcome those who do. such an outcome isn't inevitable. unforeseen events can reshape political coalitions. something could happen to forestall the catastrophe bearing down on us. how much comfort you take from this depends on your disposition. given the bleak trajectory of american politics, i worry about progressives retreating into private life to preserve their sanity. a retreat which will hasten democracy's decay. in order to get people to throw themselves into the fight to save this broken country, we need leaders who can convince them that they haven't already lost. what a great point. who specifically in congress are you look at, are you worrying specifically about, as democrats try and come together and do things together rather than looking like they're bickering? >> well, i mean, specifically, i'm talking about passing the voting rights legislation and democracy legislation that joe manchin himself has championed, that he's gotten lisa murkowski to sign onto, but we see no sign of other republicans signing on to. we would need to see some sort of reform of the filibuster in order to put forward. i mean, i take joe's point when he says that if democrats want to staunch these anti-democratic initiatives in the states, they need to win elections. you know, there's a reason that you have the phrase when you talk about authoritarianism in other countries. they say one man, one vote, one time. it's not that you win elections, then you're able to rewrite the rules so that you keep winning elections even without the majority of votes. that's what's happening now. those who see that happening, who see that bearing down on us, and who see sort of no action being taken on it because of a couple of senators, you know, who believe that the filibuster is more important than preserving representative democracy. at a certain point, for your own sanity, you can't keep smashing your head against a brick wall. >> you talk about that, michelle. you talk about the importance of staying engaged. i'm not going to draw any analogies. i won't even cite the book i was reading because i don't want anybody thinking i'm drawing analogies with past totalitarian fascist regimes, but it was so fascinating. i was looking -- it was a "new yorker" article, what happened. in a certain country, they were looking back and saying so many of us thought this person coming in was a clown. then preserve our sanity, just as you said, we retreated. we stopped reading the news. it was just too depressing. then when we looked up again, it was too late to affect any change. that could be true of any country that slides towards illiberalism, when those who are the most progressive just, again, throw up their arms and say, it's just a mess. i'm not going to stay engaged because it is too depressing. >> after the 2016 election, a turkish journalist friend of mine texted me and said sort of, "welcome to my world." obviously, i would never compare the plight of american liberals to dissidents in turkey who faced horrific repression. her point, you're going to march, you're going to protest, but, eventually, you're just going to start living your life again. and i often thought of that because american liberals didn't do that. they did fight. they had this one end point in mind, this date, november 3rd when this nightmare could be brought to an end, and they really threw all their energy into making that happen. the problem now, there is no date, there is no end point. i wrote, this doesn't have an expiration date anymore. so staying motivated in that kind of an environment is much more difficult. again, i think you're seeing some of this falloff is natural. you see a decline in activism on the left when democrats are in power. but i do -- you know, there's some data to support it, but anecdotally, you hear people say, you know, it is too painful to watch this. >> michelle goldberg, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. >> thank you. >> mika, it is so important, as we talk about it, if you're a democrat and you're discouraged and you're thinking about the midterm elections in congress, you're thinking about who is going to win in 2024, and you want to contribute or want to get engaged, that's just part of the story. barack obama was elected twice. while barack obama was in office, democrats lost, i believe, 1,000 legislative seats nationwide. the consequences of that for the party have been devastating. so if you're sitting out there and you want to get engaged, you want to make a difference, don't just look to congress. this is whether you're a republican or democrat, whoever you are. look to the state legislatures. by the way, the state legislatures, this is so important, we're talking about the big lie. we're talking about january 6th. do you know why that festered? because we were still counting wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and georgia weeks later. now, leading up to the election, we said on this show time and again, and others said, those legislatures, in order to stop any questions about the legitimacy of the election, should do what the state of florida does. yes, ron desantis, governor of the state of florida, and past governors have done, and that is count all of the early votes before the polls close on election night. if that had happened, just think about this, if those republican state legislatures had allowed that to happen for an orderly process of the counting of votes like the state of florida, do you know what would have happened? the election would have been called before probably 11:00 at night. because joe biden, they would have counted the votes. joe biden would have won wisconsin. he would have won michigan. he would have won pennsylvania. if they'd done it in georgia, he would have won georgia. it would have been over. instead, i believe, and i said it at the time, they made the calculated move to help donald trump. they knew trump would do well on election day. all of those early votes which they would count over the next week or so would all break in biden's direction. that would allow donald trump and the republicans to raise election challenges. so you ask, you ask, why is it important for democrats, if you're a democrat, to win local races and take control of state legislatures in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania? why? >> that's it right there. >> that's it right there. the last year, the last year would have been radically different in this country. >> yeah. >> and the big lie would have been deflated on election night if there had been either a democratic legislature in charge there or a responsible republican legislature that said, "yes, we're going to count all of the votes early so there will be no questions and a winner will be declared by 11:00 on election night." if you're a billionaire out there, who is going to be the next democratic president? who should i put my money behind? you can help in wisconsin, michigan, georgia, in arizona. if you're a republican, of course, the same thing. mika, when ralph reed took control of the christian coalition, know what he did first? he focused on local school boards. republicans had been doing well the last generation. by doing that, they control how the maps are drawn. they control whether kids can carry around ar-115s open cary in the middle of riots. they control what the jury instructions are because they write the laws. hey, billionaires, campaign workers, activists, focus on the local races. win the local races, and everything else will take care of itself. again, if you're a democrat or if you're a republican, that's where you win the long game. >> such a great point. still ahead on "morning joe," health workers were among the first to grapple with covid. many of them were infected. they are still dealing with the aftermath today. that conversation is next on "morning joe." firefighter maggie gronewald knows how to handle dry weather... ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, with no sticky feeling. gold bond. champion your skin. ray loves vacations. but his diabetes never seemed to take one. everything felt like a 'no'. everything. but then ray went from no to know. with freestyle libre 2, now he knows his glucose levels when he needs to. and... when he wants to. so ray... can be ray. take the mystery out of your glucose levels, and lower your a1c. now you know. try it for free. visit freestylelibre.us ( ♪♪ ) what a pain in the... alice? 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"live picture. 7:36. the scaffolding coming down around the rockefeller center christmas tree. the lighting will be one week from tonight. as we head into this holiday weekend, more the half the states in the country are seeing spikes in covid. health officials are pushing for all adults to get booster shots. nbc news national correspondent miguel almaguer has details. >> relax, relax. >> reporter: the race to vaccinate hitting new benchmarks, just as travel begins to surge and new infections start to mount. for three weeks, average inoculations topped 1 million a day for the first time since spring. now, it's boosters making up the majority of jabs, with thanksgiving and family gatherings two days away. >> not only do boosters work, they work better than the peak dose, the peak response after the second dose. >> reporter: it comes just as new infections and hospitalizations climb nationwide. pushing some ers back to the brink all over again. despite the troubling trend, there are ways to protect your family. >> every gathering is going to be vaccinated. i'm having a smaller gathering, five or six results. everyone is taking a rapid test before they come. >> reporter: while pcr tests are the most accurate, fairly inexpensive and at-home test kits can provide another layer of protection. with the white house spending $3 billion to quadruple supply from september to december, major pharmacies tell nbc news demand has been high for weeks. >> rapid tests are not perfect, but they're a really good layer to add to the other measures you're going to try to keep people safe. >> reporter: for dr. bell and families nationwide, moving from virtual to personal. a way to safely gather just in time for the holidays. >> miguel almaguer. ed young won the pulitzer prize for his coverage of the covid-19 pandemic. ed, good morning. i want to dive into your piece in a moment. first, let's talk about where we are as we head into thanksgiving tomorrow and this pandemic. most of us weren't aware of where it was or how big it was going to be as it was developing in china, i got my booster yesterday. i feel good this morning. we got boosters available. the booster is wherever you want to get it. there is a pill on the horizon, perhaps. public health experts, doctors, hospital administrators, how are they feeling about where we are right now? >> i'm concerned. we lock to be going into yet another surge. i've been thinking a lot about the plight of health dare work workers -- careworkers around the country. i've written pieces about how exhausted, demoralized, and burned out they are. hospitalizations have plateaued. they're starting to rise in at least half the states. you know, we always look at the now and what rates are doing right now. but it is important to remember, if we get another spike in hospitalizations, that's going to be the fifth that health care workers have seen over the last two years. the ones who i spoke to already were struggling to handle everything they had previously seen. people are quitting not just their jobs but medicine in general in droves. that has huge impacts for all of us going forward, you know, regardless of what happens. like, even in the rosy scenario, when no covid infections happen from this day forward, the lasting damage to our health care system and the morale of the people who are meant to -- who we rely on is immense. >> they've been through so much already. you write about the health care workers in your piece. quote, over the course of the pandemic, waves of frustrated, traumatized, and exhausted health care workers quit their jobs. several long haulers did so because of the way they were treated. health care workers felt more and more exhausted. they've been overwhelmed by work, disaffected with their patients. these conditions are likely to exacerbate the dismissal that long-haulers have faced. many health care workers are ignorant of long covid. the chronic fatigue, other conditions they felt now for well over a year, as you say, many of them leaving their jobs. some of them, as i read through your piece, a little surprised, frankly, to hear they were ostracized at the places they worked because they had these conditions. >> yeah. many people with long covid, these persistent, rolling symptoms that go on for months or years have experienced dismissal and disbelief at the hands of the health care professionals. of course, many people with long covid are health care professionals themselves. many of them are still sick. i am interested in what their experience was like. a lot of them were shocked to see that despite their qualifications and expertise, they, too, experienced the same that people without medical degrees did. for a lot of them, it's shaken their view of medicine and of what the health care profession is like. a lot of them are -- have sort of vowed to do better. they are worried about whether they, in their past, dismissed patients in the same way they've been dismissed. and, you know, in the context of everything i said earlier, i worry about this problem because a lot of this dismissal comes from the conditions that health care workers are expected to operate in. they just don't have the time to spend on patients. they are exhausted. they are frustrated. the more those conditions continue, the worse things are going to get. not just for the health care workers but for the patients. for the long haulers who are going to be arising out of this coming surge. you know, the weaker medicine in general gets, the worse things get for all of us. health care workers, people with long covid, people are all kinds of things. >> good morning. jonathan lemire. certainly, your piece illustrates how hard it is for these health care workers grappling with another surge that could last months. we don't know. we are hopeful the pandemic winds down next spring, but there is no guarantee of that. talk to us about the long-term implications here. are you seeing a lot of doctors and nurses, health care workers around the country quitting, leaving jobs? what staffing shortages? what about medical schools, are people wanting to do this? is this pandemic inspiring people to want to be in medicine, or is it making them say, no, this isn't for me? >> great question. lots of people are quitting. people are quitting in huge numbers. one survey suggested that one in five health care workers have left their jobs. everyone i spoke to, and the hundreds of emails i've received since the piece went up, have echoed the same thing. everyone is experiencing staffing shortages. people have seen teams they were familiar with depart. it's not just -- you know, it is very easy to think, oh, it's just that people can't handle the hardships of their jobs. that's not true at all. it's that they can't handle being unable to do their jobs for different reasons. because covid is really hard to treat. because a lot of patients are becoming very belligerent. because hospitals have treated the staff badly and prevented -- and sort of set them up for failure. they've not rewarded them for their hard service and, instead, penalized them almost by cutting salaries or denying them the time off they need to recover from the traumas they've experienced. for all of these reasons, health care workers have told me that, you know, they got into medicine to save people. if you can't save people, then it is just all the costs, all hardships, and a lot of people just haven't been able to make that compromise anymore. they've left. the consequences for all of us are going to be huge in terms of the health care we can receive, not just for covid but everything else. like, if your parent has a stroke, if your child gets into a car accident, who is going to treat them? the same people who have been exhausted and demoralized by two years of this pandemic. finally, you asked about people applying to medical schools. applications are up, but, again, that's going to take years. who is going to train them? a lot of the most experienced people in medicine have left, taking the expertise and their know-how with them. >> ed yong, who won the pulitzer prize for his coverage of this pandemic, thank you so much. we'll be reading your latest reporting in the "atlantic." mika? >> thank you, ed. of course, the pandemic is driving so many of today's economic challenges, from inflation to the jobless rate to the price at the pump. that is keeping the biden administration occupied at every turn. let's bring in white house correspondent for pbs news hour and msnbc contributor yamiche alcindor. what are you hearing from white house officials as they try and attack all this on many levels? plus, also, attempt to communicate what they are doing to the american people. >> what i hear from the white house, white house officials, as well as the president himself, is this sense of urgency. this sense of trying to tell americans, we hear your struggles. we see the gas prices and rising prices at the grocery store, and we want to help. yesterday, the president spoke at length about the release of oil, part of the strategic petroleum reserve. he did, though -- he wasn't able to give a date on sort of when people will start to see relief from that. the energy secretary, she told reporters yesterday that hopefully within a couple weeks, people will start to see prices come down. that, of course, is what they called a band aid. they admitted themselves it's a temporary fix, and that long term, americans really will need some help here. they said the real way to deal with this is clean energy. that, of course, is a very, very long-term solution. the other thing to note is every president has really dealt with this. whether you look at john f. kennedy or lyndon b. johnson or richard nixon, every president in some ways tried to get their arms around inflation. for the most part, history tells us, they haven't really had a great time trying to fix this. presidents can try to influence inflation and the economy, but they don't have a direct result. we saw, of course, the president this week renominate jerome powell to the fed chair. the president, in some ways, is trying to message this is top of mind. as you see in polls, americans are blaming the president, saying you need to figure out how to do this. it is definitely an urgent problem, along with covid, along with all the other challenges this administration is facing. >> yamiche, it is sam stein here. what i was struck by yesterday was they made this announcement on the strategic petroleum reserve, then oil futures went up actually. it underscored how little impact the president has on things like that. i do agree, they're trying to message around biden being attentive and active and addressing inflation. addressing supply chain issues, gas price issues. i'm wondering from your reporting, the people you talk to within the administration, is there a sense of frustration that the tools at their disposal aren't there? relatedly, they haven't really seen much in the way of a poll bump at all. they were supposed to be doing these things that would be rewarded by the public. i don't see any evidence that's happening yet. >> in some ways, when i talk to white house officials, i get the sense they're concerned that this really is something americans are going to, in some ways, have to feel. it might even get worse before it gets better. i think the president yesterday didn't take questions after his speech on the economy. i can tell you, as someone who is sitting in the room shouting questions along with other reporters, the number one question was how fast is this going to take place? how fast are these consequences, this relief to americans, how fast is it going to be felt? that is the thing that all americans in some ways want to know. the white house doesn't have an answer for that. it is really hard to predict how this is going to affect the economy. when it comes to the build back better agenda, the items the president, long term, is hoping once americans start to see the benefits from that, of course, it takes a long time to put down fiber for broadband, fix roads and bridges, but the president is hoping long term, and he is not running again until 2023, 2024, that long term, americans will start to see some of the things that these infrastructure plans and will then be giving democrats and the president himself some of the credit. >> yamiche alcindor, thank you for your reporting. and sam stein, thank you as well. have a wonderful thanksgiving weekend. coming up, we spoke last hour about china's pressure campaign against taiwan. beijing is also in the headlines this morning with a different effort to flex its muscle on the world stage. we'll tell you what that is next on "morning joe." morning joe. my plaque psoriasis... ...the itching... the burning. the stinging. my skin was no longer mine. my psoriatic arthritis, made my joints 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about china's move on that continent, expanding their global reach. and now in turkey trying to get a foothold into interpol. certainly a chilling thought for many people not only in china but across the world. >> reporter: that's right. and you know, i was listening watching the show listening to your argument about the importance of local politics and making that crucial point that law is often determined by states, local laws, and i think that there is a real connection between that argument and the reason i'm here in istanbul in turkey because if there is right now a battle over democracy, joe, it is happening at places like interpol's general assembly which is taking place here this week. it is happening over the vote that will take place tomorrow. to give you two examples, the favorite for president of interpol in the vote tomorrow is a general from the uae, he's faced legal action in the past over allegations of torture. and also chen, according to a report, has been involved in forcing dissidents back to china, in issuing interpol red notices in order to get dissidents back to china despite the fact that those red notices are not supposed to be used for political cases. just to give you one example, there is a uighur activist in morocco who is in jail after he faced a red notice. that red notice was then canceled. he is still in jail in morocco battling not to be extradited back to china. so you know, joe, next month president biden will hold his him acclaimed democracy summit and there is a lot of talk about that. but it is possible to argue that actually the real fight over democracy is happening month on month in meetings like this interpol gathering here in turkey this week. remember this, and i didn't know this, it is pretty stunning, interpol is the second biggest international organization in the world aside from the united nations. so crucial fights are happening in different parts of the world over the question of the rule of international law and democracy. it can't just be down to president biden's democracy summit. >> all right. keir simmons, reporting live from turkey on such an important issue. thank you so much. >> and staying overseas, coming up we'll break down russia's new attempts to strong arm ukraine and what if anything the u.s. is prepared do about it. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." joe. look at this, the scaffolding is going up. >> it is happening. >> willie, soon your children and mine will be at the bottom of that tree looking up. >> looks like a nice tree. >> can we go on the nbc experience tour, papa? >> and the answer will be yes, my son, yes, you can. under those glittering lights, look up at the stars and then you will be hustled by someone right into the experience store. it is a wonderful time. the tree will be lit next wednesday, joe, one week from today. >> that is exciting. it is always very beautiful. so welcome back to "morning joe." it is wednesday, november 24th. we'll start with the house select committee investigating the attack on the u.s. capitol issuing another round of subpoenas. the bipartisan panel is now demanding testimony and documents from leaders of the proud boys, the oathkeepers, and other groups involved in the violence leading up to and on january 6. committee chairman bennie thompson writes in a statement we believe the individuals and organizations we subpoenaed today have relevant information about how violence erupted at the capitol and the preparation leading up to this violent attack. meanwhile there may be setbacks for former president donald trump in his efforts to assert executive privilege over the documents sought by the house select committee. a three judge panel issued an order to trump's lawyers, the house committee and the national archives asking them to be prepared to discuss whether the court even has the legal authority to hear trump's challenge. the committee had asked the national archives to turn over scores of documents from the trump administration as it investigates the origin of the attack. but the former president claimed executive privilege over some of the material. the appeals court granted a brief stay earlier this month. the arguments regarding the appeal court's authority are scheduled for next tuesday. >> we've talked a lot about how divided this country it with extremists even talking about another civil war. our next guest though luckily has a solution to all of that. kurt anderson took a recent trip through appalachia and chronicles what he learned in a new piece titled "doing our bit to avoid a civil war." get out into the usa. it is too easy to fear and loath people you encounter only secondhand on screens. and also best selling author of evil geniuses is joining us now. kurt, so great as always to talk to you. i will ask you to tell us all what you found when you took off your black as you said libtard brooklyn outfit and jumped in the car with your wife and went to ap appalachia. >> first of all, i learned that i have to call it appalachia. it was partly a result of how we've all lived in the pandemic just locked in our homes. but also i think more than ever, you know, looking at the internet, looking at television, talking to the people we already know and fretting and worrying. and so there was a special late pandemic escape aspect to this. so, yeah, we drove south and visited friends of ours in virginia, west virginia and elsewhere. but just talked to and met normal folks as well. and you know, it came as kind of visceral revelation. not anything i didn't know. but that out in the world among people that are presumptively my political opponents, adversaries maybe would hate me, in the abstract because we're in places that are 80%, 85%, 90% trump districts, but, you know, you realize, and again, you know, but people don't care that much about politics day to day. they are living their lives. they have strong opinions but they don't -- the fact that they voted for donald trump most of them, the vast majority of them doesn't define to themselves who they are. and again being pretty off the grid, i realized that by just talking to one another, by just watching msnbc, by just looking at twitter, we turn ourselves into people who don't quite meet other people where they live as real people. as opposed to kind of cartoon characters on tv. >> yeah, twitter is not the real world. if you watch cable news 24 hours a day, you are disengaged from the real world. james and debra sellers have flown their cessna across the country and how up lifted they are when they go all across america. and they come to the same conclusion that you do, that -- and their conclusion is what i always -- they say america works. it works. the cities, the towns, the villages, america works. and you get outside of washington and so often we confuse the dysfunction of washington with what is going on with the rest of the world. and yes, i understand the great divides between blue state america and red state america when it comes to politics. but i've been really blessed, i've grown up in georgia, meridian, mississippi, tuscaloosa, alabama, northwest florida, pensacola what we all call the red neck riviera. and also in manhattan. and what i found is, sounds shocking, but parents on the upper west side of manhattan pretty much want the same exact thing that parents in meridian, mississippi want for their children. i know that you would never know that by watching cable news or being on twitter, but it is really striking how similar people's hopes and dreams and expectations are. it is just a question of how they think that they can best get there. >> that is true. and funny that you mentioned jim and deb who were doing that expedition and putting out that book. and we talked about it, jim and i, and i was saying that america kind of crazy and mayber redeembly so. but he said no, everybody is good. the truth to me, we're both right. there is real deep abiding issues about fake news, false truths, all of those problems. and that i wrote a book about. but this idea that we are inevitably sliding toward a civil war, which is, you know, everywhere you go in the media but real life as well, people talk about that. you know, it could happen. i'm not saying all is good because people on the upper west side and also meridian, mississippi. fundamentally agree, but we can get hysterical and i think make it a kind of self-fulfilling downfall if we don't get out there and actually see people unlike us. and the thing about new york city, i spend a lot of time studying maps of how people voted. yes, it was new york city 78% joe biden, but there are big patches of brooklyn, new york full of 80%, 90% trump voters. so diversity exists everywhere even in new york. and the trick is to sort of see people as people, not as character cares trying to destroy our democracy. and this human to human necessity to sort of cool the temperature a little bit i think is really important. >> craig, you made the point very smart earlier that we tend because it is easier to retreat to our bubble sometimes, but those bubbles that are cable news and the specific facebook page i look at or twitter are not representative of what is going on out there. i grew up in the new york area, lived in new york a long time, consider myself a new yorker, but i went to college and lived in the south for ten years and that exposure and background is the best thing i could ever impart to anyone else and suggest they do themselves because you don't buy into the cartoon versions of other people and where they come from. so i'm curious as you went down there perhaps expecting to meet some resistance and got just the opposite, what gave you hope about how we stitch this thing back together to the extent it needs to be? >> well, we have americans as we've read again and again and seen the studies sorted ourselves geographically into more and more like minded places. the trick is to counteract that, the trick is to, you know, talk to people as people and regard people as people. whether it is -- i was wondering when the opposite happens. and you guys walking around your beloved 30 rock see plenty of people from all over america. trump america, red america, maga america wandering around midtown manhattan. do those people -- they come to new york. do they feel differently, a little differently than their neighbors who don't? i hope that is true. i think that is true. i think mingling and seeing one another in real life is important. and not people just like you. and again, my sister for instance, one of my sisters is a town official in a little town in upstate new york, a democrat, but works with republicans, lives with republicans. and she is a political scientist as well. but because of this day to day work, she doesn't see all republicans as er redeembly evil. because it is hard to see real people who you are in the store with as, you know, they are not all marjorie taylor greenes and josh hawleys. and again, i'm not saying that they are all nice and of course as many people responded to me about this piece said, well, you're a white guy, well, of course everyone was nice to you. and for sure if we weren't we would have had a different experience. as we would have had a different experience ten years ago, 20 years ago. so my piece was about this holy cow, what is going to happen to america feeling that everybody has now and this civil war that may be brewing. and, yeah, people have bad thoughts and bad ideas and bad opinions and all of that. we can't -- the standard of americans' success can't be -- yes, they have those bad opinions. but that doesn't mean that we can't all live together here the way we did when some of us voted for mcgovern and someone voted for george wallace. >> we figured out a way to get through it. and you've seen this firsthand, and i always say it on this show, most of my friends and family members, neighbors, voted for donald trump. and when i coach baseball, done it for three seasons with jack. and i'm full lay wear that the parents of most of the players that i coached voted for donald trump.lay wear that the parents of most of the players that i coached voted for donald trump. they would see me just going after him day after day after day on this show. they didn't care. like just because they disagreed with me. i think in over three seasons, the only time anybody ever said anything is when a guy came up to me, put his arm around me and laughed and said hey coach, take it easy on my president. and i was like, all right, let's talk baseball. but it was good natured. and that was for the entire league. i would guess that most of the people that were out at the league probably, you know, voted about as much for donald trump in this area as the areas where kurt went. and again, and i've seen it time and time again, it doesn't mean that there aren't bad people out there. it doesn't mean, you know, that everybody's experiences are going to be the same. i'm just saying it is just not what you read on twitter. >> right. and to all of this, in the article kurt details an encounter he had in west virginia while visiting a historical site. quote, we parked on the grass and went to walk the grounds. in less than a minute, a car pulled up and stopped crosswise right behind ours. the driver got out. our biases were being confirmed. a 1964 chevy station wagon unrestored with one maroon door. the driver a big bellied bushy bearded white guy wearing a land of the free t-shirt. he looked at our license plate. y'all he said in the classic drawl, sure are a long way from home. one could imagine that as sinister. one could hear in the mind's ear the opening bars of dueling banjos. instead after we explained that we were interested in the history and the architecture of the palatial joint, he explained that he lived right there up the holler and we proceeded to spend a wonderful half hour together chatting about the old hotel. his tore cal knowledge was deep and detailed and enthusiastically offered. i believe that he was pleased and maybe relieved by the encounter. i notice we were. and i wonder how -- i mean, i've had a similar encounter recently in a similar kind of area. but i just wonder how we make more of this happen because there is the divide often is just because people don't have the chance to talk to each other. >> and of course they do. and i could drive three or four miles away from here brooklyn to borough park or any other number of places and start talking to people. again, they won't have appalachia accents and will be very different from that guy, but they will be people unlike us. and again living in big cities certainly we're used to that, we celebrate diversity of all kinds. and that is what it is. right? this guy and people like him may be against diversity and inclusion as we define it, but seeing them, meeting them, eating with them, chatting with them, not saying having big political discussions or arguments with them, but mingling with fellow americans of a very different -- different than we are, it is a kind of a diversity that we also need too celebrate it on keep our health. and again, it is not a silver bullet. it is one among 100 things that we can do to try to get ourselves back on track as a country that is a country of very, very different kinds of people. >> and kurt is so right, so much of the divide is self-elected. you can live in new york and find areas that voted only for trump. you can live in red states and still find people who voted for job. it reminds me of a friend who always would have a dinner party in new york and he would ask his guests over the course of 10, 15 years, where have you been more, staten island or paris. and he said to a person over the decade, over the 10, 15 years, he had never met anybody who had been to staten island as much as they had been to paris. again, much of what we do, much of the divide we experience is a self-selected divide. >> no, joe, i mean the self-segregation keeps everyone from actually understanding and learning who other people are. and i think kurt's most important observation in this piece that i find to really resonate from what i've heard from trump voters is that the majority do not define themselves as trump voters yet on the -- to a lot of upper west siders, probably they define plenty of trump voters just by who they voted for. and so it is something important to think about, the importance that we place on political labels and how that they don't necessarily define human beings. >> yeah. doing our bit to avoid a civil war, it is a good read before you sit down with relatives for your thanksgiving meal. a really good read for that. kurt, thank you so much. still ahead, an agreement for closer military ties between china and russia could have major ramifications for years to come. we'll talk to richard haass and david ignatius about 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>> look, joe, we can only measure capabilities. we can't measure intentions. i don't think either -- the china pressure against taiwan i think is longer term. i'm not sure china has yet reached the point where it has all the military capability that it would need. but russia is very close if they wanted to launch a massive invasion against ukraine. look, these two countries have two things in common. one is they are fundamental at liberalism. they are authoritarian and they really want a very different world order where the kinds of things we're pushing in democracy and human rights don't happen. and then they are in a position to get to the opening thing mika just talked about, they each could potentially benefit from a crisis in the other's backyard. and they might seek to exploit it. so one of the things that the biden administration has to think about is not simply how we deter a crisis in each of these two areas but also how we prepare for both simultaneously because i don't think that it is possible to real out a kind of tactical exploitation by russia or china if there is a crisis elsewhere in the world. >> and david ignatius, that is exactly the concern. i think that many people in the foreign policy feel around job are having. the fact that we had this joint statement yesterday and you have china ready to go after taiwan, been talking about itobviously for decades. could they do it simultaneously in a bid to present such an overwhelming challenge to the united states that we cannot respond to either. >> i think that is obviously the message that they are sending. i see two basic points about this, joe. the first is alliance mobilization if you will. it is always scary when you get these statements, this commitment by allies in a period of tension that reminds us of 1914 and the leadup to world war 1 where affirmations of alliances were a key part of the buildup. russia and china have nominal commitments that were renewed, but this was more specific and graphic language. the thing that worries me more is the way in which these statements seem to suggest an equivalence between taiwan which china regards as part of china that it will somehow regain, and the u.s. is committed on paper that there is one china, although we defer when that would be resolved. and russia's statement saying that ukraine is part of russia, historically it has always been part of the russian homeland. and this equivalence between the two makes me worried that russia is now putting ukraine on that same status that taiwan has been, that we will recover this if not this month, next month, if not next month,forces that r the ukraine border are not seen as sufficient for full invasion. there are actually fewer today than there were last april, and there was an earlier fear that russia would go over the border. but they are building. and there is intelligence that suggests that russia has much wider ambitions. so this is mobilization but also it may be putting ukraine in a different category. thank. >> thank you both very much for being on to talk about these stories this morning. coming up, new developments in the congressional investigation into january 6. subpoenas now being aimed straight at the extremist groups for their role in the insurrection. those details are next on "morning joe." 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on january 6th. committee chair bennie thompson writes we believe the individuals and organizations we subpoenaed today have relevant information about how violence erupted at the capitol and the preparation leading up to this violent attack. willie. >> let's bring in senior reporter for nbc news who has been covering this world for so long, ben collins. ben, thanks for coming on. so obviously oath keepers, proud boys are broad terms. who exactly are we talking about here with the subpoenas and what is the significance? >> with the oathkeepers, it is stewart rhodes who has been subpoenaed. he is the head of the oath keepers. in the days around january 6, he was telling people what to bring to the riots to make it looks like you don't have weapons but you do. like collapsible batons are a gray area, bring flashlights and d cell flashlights that can be used as weapons. you know, he was sort of upset with the president on january 6 because he didn't give enough specific instructions he thought. and he said the patriots are taking it into their own hands here. that is what he said to his followers that day. you know, in the run-up to that on telegram and discords, these groups specifically thought that there would be violence that day and pushed that way. that is in part why the head of the proud boys is also in this batch of subpoenas even though he never made to d.c. he was proud in on a weapons charge beforehand, arrested on a weapons charge. he is viewed as a patsy largely by the proud boys. they believe he is a federal agent because he's worgted with worked with the feds in past. they believe that he is a front for something else within that community. the third most interesting case here is this guy named robert patrick lewis who works for a group called first amendment gretorian. he was tied to people like mike flynn. this guy is a veteran and is kind of new to this organizing space but he is really good at it, created a bunch of rallies before january 6. he has always had this public stance, but he said today is the day the true battles again. so these are groups that were talking about violence either in the run-up to the 6th or the 6th itself. >> and the committee is looking into any level of coordination between the groups that you described and people in the white house, political leadership, members of congress perhaps. to what extent have you seen that in your travels online? >> it is really hard to know. there was always this dance with them. you know, specifically with rhodes. he said, you know, the president just as i suspected isn't going to tell us to go to the capitol and take it over. he is not going to tell you to do that. but the president did say let's all go to the capitol, let's hear our voices heard. hard to know. as "rolling stone" reported, they used burner phones. they knew what they were doing was not on the level. it was going to be very hard to unravel this. they always use encrypted communications, whether that is things like the signal app or they use back ends to get around to people that they know that they are doing not necessarily great things. so it is a very difficult thing. i don't know how this committee will find all this stuff out. >> ben collins, thank you so much for your reporting this morning. coming up -- >> what are you thankful for? >> the people i'm standing next to. >> that was president biden at a soup kitchen yesterday in washington, d.c. our next guest is a leading voice in stamping out hunger in america. and we'll talk about the real need there straight ahead on "morning joe." as a dj, i know all about customization. that's why i love liberty mutual. they customize my car insurance, so i only pay for what i need. how about a throwback? ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ ( ♪♪ ) what a pain in the... alice? if it's "let's wrap this up" season, it's walgreens season. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment 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connecting with my students. behind every last minute save, ok, that works. and holiday surprise, thank you! a customer service rep is working unseen, making it happen. and at genesys, we're proud to help them help you everyday. a live look at times square as people are getting ready for the thanksgiving holiday weekend. it is 43 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." a bowl of cereal could soon cost more. general mills is expected to raise prices on hundreds of its products next year including cereals like cherrios, cinnamon toast crunch and lucky charms. as well as well-known brands such as progresso, betty crocker and pills bury, that is according to a letter sent to one major wholesale supplier. prices are expected to go up by around 20% starting mid-january. general mills has not commented on the reported price hike. and dollar tree is also increasing prices. the retailer says that it will start selling most products for $1.25 early next year. executives say the higher price point will ultimately allow the company to expand the number of products it offers at a discount. let's bring in former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. this morning he is taking a closer look at the increased costs families are seeing for thanksgiving this year as really a meter on everything. so steve, what is it going to cost? >> well, it is not only joe's lucky charms that will go up in price, but thanksgiving dinner will cost more this year. sorry, joe. it will cost more for most americans. and we can take a look at what all that means in this chart showing the different pieces of thanksgiving. so you can see that last year actually the price of thanksgiving went down a little bit because of the pandemic for a family ten, went from $48.91 to $46.90, but it year it is going up 14% to $53.31 again for a family of ten. that is the biggest increase in 31 years. and it is almost across the board. turkey itself is up 24%. and if you want a fun fact about turkey, turkeys this year will on average actually be a little larger because we had a worker shortage and it took longer to get turkeys to market so they got fatter. pumpkin pie mix is up, rolls will be up, fresh cranberries will be up. only thing that is down and i can't tell you why, stuffing will be a little bit cheaper. but that is not the only part of thanks giving that will go up. the cost of getting to grandma's house for thanksgiving is also going up. we've heard a lot about oil prices over the last few days including from the president yesterday. and so we can see what that means in terms of gasoline again for a family trying to go visit their relatives or whatever. a year ago gasoline cost $2.13 a gallon. and this year it will cost $3.40 a gallon. so obviously very stiff increase. interestingly when the president -- and you see that on this chart on the left, interestingly after the president spoke yesterday, oil prices on the crude oil market actually went up a little bit because people thought he was going to do more than simply release 50 million barrels of oil from the petroleum reserve. and you see that people in different incomes look at inflation differently. if you have less than $50,000 income, you think that inflation will be 6.2% over the coming year. and if you are a wealthy american making over $100,000 a year, you think that it will be 4.8%. poor americans, we all know, suffer from inflation more than wealthier americans, they see it at the pump as you see on the left, they drive more, and they see it across everyday lives. you talked about dollar tree no longer being dollar tree. and lastly as another little fun thanksgiving fact, people are focused on inflation. inflation now polls as the most important issue since 2002. and you can see here, these are google searches for inflation, and it goes all the way back to the beginning of the invention of the google machine back in the early 2000s. and you can see that it has bounced around a little bit mostly due to seasonal factors. but that turquoise line on the right is what was the most recent november reading for google searches for inflation. and you can see that it has jumped to more than 2.5 times where it has been historically been sitting. so unfortunately as we go into thanksgiving, inflation will be very much on the minds of americans as they eat the turkeys and cranberry all of which will cost as i said a good bit more than they did last year. >> and again, steve, following up on a conversation that we had earlier this morning, when you go into those focus groups in virginia, they were worried about inflation, and they really like youngkin's sales tax break on the grocery prices that had been going up. you can certainly see why. i wanted to just -- just breaking while you were going through your charts, reading it from the "washington post," that jobless claims, weekly job last claims plunged to 199,000. that is the lowest level in 50 years. the lowest -- in over 50 years. lowest level since 1969. talk about that. >> yeah, joe, i think that it should be hopefully known to people at this point that we have a huge number of jobs -- far more jobs open than we have people wanting to fill them. we have 11 million jobs open which is i think about twice the number of americans who are actually unemployed and looking for work. the quit rate is very high. people are leaving jobs to find other jobs. you see worker shortages all over the place. i talked to you about how turkeys will be bigger this year because of worker shortage at processing plants. and so the fact is we do have an economy that is roaring along and so you get a combination of two things. you get inflation as we just talked about up 6.2% over the past year, and you get a huge number of jobs and people now seem to be starting to take them based on this one number today. as you know, many people dropped out of the labor force, we've had a of retirements, so this is very good news today, and we'll have to see how it's followed up with more data in the coming days. >> so steve, let me ask you about, again, going into this democratic focus group post, and it was of biden youngkin voters, and you read through the focus group, and it's almost like for every help wanted sign that voters saw, these voters saw in restaurants where half the restaurant would be closed down because they didn't have workers, it was almost like every help wanted sign looked like it a youngkin for governor sign. they were -- whether it was joe biden's fault or not, whether it was terry mcauliffe's fault or not, of course it wasn't, but they were still blaming the democrats for that. do you think we're going to see an easing of that and more people coming into the job market? and finally, really quickly, at this stage, thanksgiving 2021, what's still causing so many people to be out of the work force? >> well, first, i had my own experience with worker shortage the other night at an indian restaurant on the upper west side of manhattan where it took an hour and a half to get any food. we can all see this in our everyday lives. people have been holding back from going into labor market for a whole variety of reasons, whether it's covid, whether it's health care, whether it's the unemployment benefits that are now reverted back to their normal levels or whether it's the fact that simply people have a lot of money in their bank accounts, they couldn't spend money during covid. we sent them a lot of stimulus checks. household balance sheets are in quite good shape, and many people are saying i don't want to go back to work in some restaurant. i don't want to go back to work in a fast food store. i don't want to go back to an amazon warehouse, and so they are holding back, and i think all of us can understand why nobody -- what people would rather not do those kinds of jobs. i think what you're starting to see in these numbers is are people coming back. they're going to start to need the money. they're going to start to want to get back to work. i think that the labor shortage per se is going to start to ease. we have a significant inflation problem, rightly or wrongly, people blame the president who's in power when we have inflation. right now it's joe biden, he gave to the microphone to give a long statement about the economy and he's very, very focused on this, and his advisers are very, very focused on this with the midterms less than a year away. >> steve rattner thank you very, very much for that insight. for millions of people across the country the struggle is actually to put food on the table at all. a new report by the nonprofit group hunger free america found one in seven new yorkers are struggling with what is known as food insecurity. that is a lack of consistent access to to enough food for an active, healthy life. that group's ceo joe berg joins us now. thanks for the work you do, especially around this time of the year. i've been talking to different groups, common pantry and others around new york that we work with, and the demand has never been higher. but also, you all are facing many of the same economic challenges the rest of us are with supply chain problems and inflation, all these goods costing you more just to get. so how dire is the situation right now, and what do you all need to get through it? >> the situation is dire. there's still tens of millions of americans who can't afford enough food. but let's put this in perspective. i came to the studio at 30 rock today by subway. most of the people i represent don't necessarily drive long distances. they do travel by public transportation, and new york state governor kathy hochul just announced that the mta fare in new york is not going up because of a massive infusion of federal aid. and so we love the charities. they perform a vital role in filling in the gaps, but our message is you need to understand the federal safety net provides 15 times, 15 times the dollar amount of food as does every food bank, soup kitchen, food pantry, self-help organization america puts together. it was really the massive increase in the federal safety net this year, both food and cash that prevented us from having mass starvation like you might see in the developing world. >> so joel on the idea of federal intervention, the build back better act right now of course is the president's plan. it's a dramatic expansion of the social safety net. it's through the house. it's going to head to the senate next week. probably have a few weeks of negotiation there. how much of an impact would that have to become law for new yorkers in need, and what in particular do you hope will be in there? >> nationwide where we work, we know that the build back better act would be the greatest improvements in social policy in decades. as progressives, there's not everything i'd like in the bill, but let's not obscure the fact that it would dramatically reduce poverty in america, dramatically make the cost of living more affordable, and reduce child hunger by making child care and housing more affordable, you're reducing hunger by putting more money into the pockets of low income people, even though we saw the price of turkeys has gone up by 14%, the snap benefits, the food stamps benefits have gone up 37%. so the people i represent know that the safety net from the federal government really is a life preserver that prevents them from drowning in a tsunami of hunger. so it's not enough and the top answer isn't more government aid. the top answer is jobs that pay a living wage. if you're working hard and playing by the rules, you shouldn't be hungry, and that's what we need both federal policy to do and corporations to do. >> well, and that's joel, big picture, you've dedicated your life to combatting hunger in america, and do you think that this goes back to more of a jobs, a living wage question? it just is baffling that in 2021 in the wealthiest, most prosperous country on earth where we have as a society progressed so much, we still have such a huge egregious hunger problem. absolutely. you're from mississippi, they have even lower wages than new york, and they have even higher hunger. >> and food deserts, too. >> and food deserts and mississippi has the highest tax on food in the country. so there's really an array of policies designed to make it harder for people to get by, and it's popular, say, well, hunger is not a political issue. hunger is not a partisan issue. actually, it's the most political issue, and it's become a partisan issue when great republicans like bob dole and richard luger focused on this issue from a bipartisan basis, we had real progress. now we've lost that progress, and people are actually getting out there and saying, oh, no, if you get an extra $0.30 for food you're not going to go back to work. that's preposterous. we know what works because we almost ended hunger in the 1970s because we had more bipartisan support. the rest of the developed world has ended hunger long ago. we know what works. we just need to do it. and groups like mine need support, not only to help connect people with benefits but also to make sure that we build this long-term movement to pressure our social systems and government to do what's needed. >> all right, ceo of hunger free america, joel berg, thank you very much for coming on this morning. perfect timing for this piece. and finally this morning, a nice moment in the world of college basketball. >> defensively, he has been the man. look at that move! come on, america, america, are you serious! >> wow. >> hall of fame broadcaster dick vitale returns courtside to call the first game of his 43rd season amid a months' long battle with cancer. he could not hold back tears ahead of tip off. >> it is so great to see you. i know you would not miss this. all of you are aware that dick is battling the cancer. the the fact that you've made it out to los angeles is just awesome, great to see you. >> it's great being here, dave. i didn't want to -- i can't believe i'm sitting here. this is truly a big thrill to me. so many great messages, espn, all my buddies at espn, i want to thank certainly my family and all the fans. you've been unbelievable, and october 12th, i'll be honest with you, when they told me i had cancer, it was really going to be a serious surgery and all i never dreamt that i'd ever be courtside again, but to be here today, i'm sorry. i hope i don't cause a problem out there, but i feel so emotional. >> what a wonderful moment. >> so much gratitude. >> what a wonderful moment, willie. that guy, he's been a part of everybody's family that loves college basketball for such a long time. >> he is college basketball. he's been doing this for espn for more than 40 years, and that's as long as i can remember. the game i've played my whole life, the game i've loved, i love college basketball. he is college basketball. he's the voice, and we were missing him there, but the biggest game of the season so far it was fitting that dick vitale was the one there, so happy to see him back and encouraging his recovery right now. before we go, i want to point out to our audience. it is a very special day. it is the anniversary of joe scarborough and mika brzezinski. my question to you, joe, is what number will you get off the chick-fil-a menu when you go tonight? classic number one? >> i'm going to get the classic number one, but more importantly than that i'm going to do something i usually don't, and mika always wants to go. tonight i'm going to let her go to the dog track, and we're going to be betting on that, and then we're going to fly down to just north of hollywood, florida, and we're going to do high line. i bet every night i'm down there and mika always -- she says what do you do down there? well, tonight because it's our anniversary i'm going to let her know. it's pretty incredible sport. >> i loved every minute of it. >> that's how you keep the

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