mary tracks health products. you core is a life's they tried today at your core.com >> this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york on today's program, bibi netanyahu approves plans for an assault on rafah one of the most powerful democrats in washington says, israel's prime minister must go i'll ask the middle east scholarship triply to homie to make sense of these developments also the clock maybe ticking on the future of tiktok in the united states the houses voted for legislation that could ban now it is up to the center to ban or not to ban. >> we will have that debate >> then. >> the ai nightmare silicon chips deciding whom to kill and whom just say if this isn't happening right now on the battlefield, it is likely to happen soon enough. i will ask an expert what we can expect and what we can do about the ai warfare revolution but first, here's my take. in a recent interview with russian state tv, vladimir putin's had something that was in his words, important for us ourselves, and even more so for our listeners and viewers abroad to understand our way of thinking the one ukraine he explained is for the western way of improving its tactical position vis-a-vis russia. but for us, it is our fate. it is a matter of life and death. he said the fundamental mistake in western strategy against russia has been to ignore this reality new data confirms that the russian economy has withstood western sanctions far better than most predicted is gdp grew at over 3% last year. and now inflation which reached around 18% in early 2022 seems to be studying at around 7.5%. russia's largest bank stayed own sberbank recently announced that profits last year, fueled by a mortgage boom surge more than five fold to their highest level levels moscow has survived western sanctions for a variety of reasons. these sanctions are not comprehensive. for example, they do not completely prohibit russia's energy exports nor can they. the world is too dependent on these resources are total ban if enforceable would lead oil prices to skyrocket and trigger a global recession and as western companies fled russia, non-western ones simply replace them. russians addicted to starbucks will find that those outlets have simply been taken over by stars coffee, a locally owned brand. indian businessman, tell me that they were able to buy western company's assets in russia at fire sale prices, and now operate those businesses profitably there are lessons here the world economy is interdependent enough that it's hard to ban something like oil without imposing huge costs on every one non-western economies now make up a large enough part of the world that if they don't go along with sanctions those sanctions lose much of their bite >> but >> the largest lesson is surely that economic pressure alone rarely causes countries to capitulate over the decades, washington has placed ruin a sanctions on cuba, north korea, iran, venezuela, and now russia can one say in any of these cases that the regime reversed its policies? the russian economy has survived because putin has done whatever it takes. he has put his country on war footing, rallying its citizens with patriotic rhetoric that often works when people feel besieged for what it's worth, the respected independent levada center survey recently reported that putins favorably rating has risen to at 6% the central bank raised interest rates sharply. the finance ministry put in place foreign exchange controls, government spending has risen dramatically, all to create a military industrial economy these policies and the sanctions will create severe long-term costs for russia's economy and society but slow stagnation is something a country can often bear far more easily than a sharp shock putin sees himself in a take no prisoners battle with the west he is often indicated that he would not shirk from using tactical nuclear weapons he has directed an ongoing and vast information war against key western nations, notably the united states, by one european commission estimate, posts by accounts linked to the kremlin were viewed at least 16 billion times in the west in the first year of the ukraine war as the us considers, banning tiktok, it's worth recognizing that the issue is not really who owns the platform, but how malign forces can use any platform to get their message out, make it viral, and undermine truth and facts president biden has done many big things right in this war. he has rallied the western many non-western allies like japan, south korea, in singapore. he has provided moral and material support on a vast scale to kyiv republican opponents of aid to ukraine in embracing a policy that is deeply irresponsible and unsafe. one, that if it succeeds would make america week. and the world far more dangerous. and yet, biden and other western leaders must demonstrate that they too will do what it takes and that time is not on putin's side. that means using russia's central bank reserves now frozen to help ukraine. >> it >> means accelerating delivery of every kind of weapon that kyiv needs the pressure that puts needs to feel is not long-term economic decline, but short-term military setbacks, loss of conquer territory higher casualty rates, and a collapse and morale >> so cod francis >> president emmanuel macron is surely right that the central fact that must guide western and strategy is that putin cannot win if that means greater western involvement. even military forces of some kind on the ground. that's better than watching russian aggression succeed macron gave a speech this week in which he said that the conflict was existential for france and europe. the west can only gain the upper hand in this war if it truly believes this and acts on that belief go to cnn.com slash free for linked to my washington post com this week. and let's get started >> it has been a big week in israel, an assault on rafah, the southernmost city of gaza, looms, despite president joe biden warning against such a move meanwhile, senate majority leader chuck schumer, one of israel's most ardent supporters, has called for fresh elections in israel identifying prime minister benjamin netanyahu as an obstacle to peace but that piece, which in schumer's view must be a two-state solution has perhaps never felt further away. joining me now to talk about all of this is shipley tell homie the unwerth said that professor for peace and development at the university of maryland and a senior fellow at brookings chablis. tell me what you've viewed with studied are public opinion for decades and done many, many surveys. tell me what you think happens if israel does do the assault on rafah well, the fear immediately is a humanitarian disaster on an even bigger scale than we have witnessed so far. we have. as you can see from what has been reported at taking place since the horrific hamas attack on israel on october 7. and then the bombardment of gaza, even after 100 days, they equivalent of three nuclear devices in terms of the kilotons of bombs that were dropped. >> the humanitarian >> disaster, it's been on a scale. we have not really seen since world war ii. and so in that sense, if you have the concentration of refugees who were displaced from other parts of gaza strip into the strip along rafah and adjacent to the egyptian border. or you have over 1 million people crowded there. if there is an assault without some way of getting people out of harm's way, there would be huge disaster this would be something really on a scale. we have not seen before. >> and tell me about schumer's speech. i thought it was a watershed in the sense of months of frustration the biden administration has had with the netanyahu government quietly counseling them to do things differently and be clear. schumer does not freelance. i assume that this was vetted by the white house does it does it? signals something new policy for the united states are much more vocal public policy of opposition to the netanyahu government hey, charlie signal that obviously the biden administration, which has been under tremendous attacks for doing nothing to stop the fighting. as you know a lot of the democratic constituents have been pushing the list striation. the administration is finally realizing that this could even cause the president and reelection the israelis commence operations and rafat, the president has declared to be a red line for them to do without assuring safety of civilians then that will be the real desk. it's not about nothing in the final thing i want to say on this while nothing, yeah, obviously it seemed to be an obstacle even by israelis as you know, his popularity and israel is still low as wanted to a columnist for our splitted, it's the number of people who who who backed him now are smaller number of people who believe alice presley is still alive. it's very, very small, but the israeli public it does not want to end the fighting. the israeli public is not supporting a ceasefire. so let's keep that in mind. >> that the >> problem is if you isolate and you make, you stay, it's all about nothing. the aho, and it turns out that you even need to get rid of methane. yahoo, you still have a problem of what might happen in gaza has to go beyond individuals, beyond israeli politics. it has to be a much state policy in the current foreign affairs, you have an important essay which says everyone now talks about the two-state solution again, as the larger solution to this problem israel and the palestinians. but you say the actually the two-state solution is at this point a mirage. can you explain briefly what you mean? >> yes. i have been a supporter of two states long before it was popular in fact, i lead a personally led efforts to bring his relative closeness together behind the scenes before oslo and after oslo, because i believed in it. but you know, after the collapse of negotiation and do thousand quarter century ago, we started saying it's five minutes to midnight, produce dates, five minutes to midnight produce days. and we we we wake up one morning and it's very quarter-century. we still think saying five minutes to midnight. and in the meanwhile, from 2002 now, the prospect is de, diminished every single day, largely because of the expansion of israeli settlements in the west bank that have made it practically impossible to contemplate a contiguous whole thing and state largely because of shifting israeli australian politics, israel is moved way to the right. nothing yoho aside, public opinion, in israel has soured on two states >> palestinian public opinion has been >> somewhat more supportive, still soured on the two-stage, but they don't trust the us. and now you are talking about a horrific violence on a scale that has scared both the israelis and the palestinians. they see it as an existential threat. you look at public opinion now, it's even less supportive of two states than it was before. and the invocation of two states even before october 7, was really serving more as it's smoke stream to divert detention. probably reality of over 56 years of one people dominating another with policies have no freedom, imagining that this is only a temporary state of affairs of occupation it was a lifetime with no end in sight >> chablis, tell me pleasure to have you on >> thank you >> next on gps, the house voted this week for a bill that could eventually ban the popular app tiktok in america. >> we >> will have a spirited debate about whether that is best for the country or goes against america's basic values. when we come united states of scandal with jake tapper. tonight at nine on cnn, meet avocados, best-selling green mattress made with certified organic cotton, wool. >> and >> latex, plus pocketed coils to support your body's natural curve for cool and restorative sleep. featuring a one year in home sleep trial complete your bedroom away with organic pillows and bedding shop today with avocado green. proud supporter of 1% for the planet >> my friends call me sam. i naturally hold a lot of stress in my digestive system as a lot of women do when i travel, i get constipated. i get really poop shy. >> when i started >> taking dso one, i immediately noticed how much lighter i felt fiber brand alive. >> it really helps me >> stay regular. and you're not bloated at all. i honestly recommend dso one to everyone >> i was just feeling stuck was to wash day my almost crying i was sad i was diagnosed with rob no miles should coma. >> once we got the first initial hit, it was just straight tears sickness, and your stomach? 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>> sure. >> i i really appreciate the way that you structured the introduction by making clear that this isn't a ban on tiktok. it's so ban on having a major media platform in the united states. and its 100 million users subject to chinese nationals security law, which requires companies owned in an operating in china to make their data available to the chinese government? and bytedance has used the access to the data to surveil journalists and a former bytedance executive has testified that they use it to surveil protesters in hong kong so there's not only the possibility, we have the experience of the company using the data for nefarious surveillance of people the chinese government disagrees with the second argument is the arrow going the other direction, which is their likelihood of chinese companies subject to chinese national security law using their access to the american platform to try and shape the information available to americans or even to mobilize americans to political action. and we actually just had the experience of it this last week where tiktok alerted message it's hundred and 70 million americans trying to two persuade them to call their congressman. it identified their individual member of congress and the phone number to try and get them to call and advocate against the passage the legislation. i think those are both legitimate national security concerns >> okay. glenn, would how would you respond to both those issues? so does the data collection and the misinformation >> thanks. so there absolutely is a national security concern over tiktok. no one's saying there isn't. but there are other ways to solve the problem. they require a little bit of nuanced and complexity. and frankly, that's not something that congress does well, we just had a representative from texas the other day earlier this week, say that a vote against this band of against the bill, was a vote in favor of the chinese communist party. and that's the sort of rhetoric that inflames this issue and prevents us from getting and to the right kind of more nuanced public policy choice here. there is a way of dealing with both the user data risk problem that was just mentioned, as well as the potential for disinformation in a way that isn't going to cause other problems that are going to affect our national security. and we'll still solve the problem. we, we america looks good when we stand up for freedom of speech and don't ban various apps. so that's something that china does. they ban this network, cnn, the new york times, google, et cetera. that's not something the us does. we should be passing privacy legislation that would affect all user data, not just ones on tiktok, but google, facebook. you name it. >> there are a >> lot of other solutions we can engage in. it would largely solve the problem and wouldn't have the downsides that this ban it would so cory, how do you respond to that idea that if people are trying to foreign governments are trying to get access to user data, >> they can buy the access the data very easily from phases book from twitter, from all kinds of social media apps. and in fact, there is evidence that the russian government did do that in 2016. they didn't need tiktok i agree >> and selling user data is something that we absolutely should look into as a policy question. but i'm a little bit nervous to have to have civil liberties advocates arguing that the answer needs to be a lot more censorship than a narrow control on a particular company that has a record of utilizing user data 44, surveillance purposes. and for trying to mobilize americans for political purposes. >> and when you look at the issue of freedom of speech, glenn, i mean, i assume what you're saying is look, we do allow russian state tv to be accessed by americans. i can get russian to state tv and i look and listen to putins propaganda. i can listen to the chinese communist party and that's part of what we've always believed as americans that if there are ideas out day, even if the foreign government is sponsoring them, americans shouldn't we have the opportunity to listen to them >> exactly right? you know, the supreme court said exactly that, which is that americans have a first amendment right to receive foreign propaganda even if it's nonsense and wrong, that's just part of the part of the picture we have with the first amendment. and that's a really important freedom that we shouldn't lightly toss aside. and i'm not suggesting that a ban on tiktok would be tossing that aside, but it's a step toward banning a social media platform, something we've never done before. there are constitutional scholars who wonder whether this it is really the right approach we shouldn't be going down that road given that there are other solutions at hand. and i'm all in favor of banning chinese products. i was the national security agency and saw firsthand china's militias snus i lived in hong kong for eight years. so i know what they're capable of and i'm not in any way suggesting we should be week or so after ignore this threat, we should, we should, and indeed, our problem properly banning tiktok from government phones, from state phones that makes sense. that's what europe and canada and the eu has done as well. but they haven't banned at totally and neither should we all right. >> stay with us when we come back. i'm going to ask cause who has advised many republican presidents why the current republican nominee to be donald trump, who tried to ban tiktok when he was president, has now flipped and says, he doesn't want to ban tiktok. >> when we come back this is the big gap >> came through that. do get help reaching your goals with jpmorgan wealth plan, the digital money coach in the chase mobile app use it to set and track your goals. big and small and see how changes you make today could help put them within reach. >> from your first it's big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help you get there jp morgan, while if management getting him to brush is no longer a chore, the sink is overflowing onto the floor. luckily, american home shield is there to fix or replace please cupboard parts of appliances and home systems to help you stay on course and budget, sign up today at ages.com >> tourists tourists that turn into science tourist, taking photos that are analyzed by ai so researchers can help life underwater flourish >> all your screening. >> one app with one password, find your happy place the edge and. rash of moderate to severe eczema disrupts my skin night and day. despite treatment, it's still not but under control. >> but >> now i have revoke. >> revoke is a >> once-daily pill that reduces the itch and helps clear the rash of eczema fast summer invoke page you shouldn't felt significant inch relief as early as two days. some achieved dramatic skin clearance as early as two weeks. and many taking or invoke saw clear are almost clear skin >> run vote can lower your ability to fight infections, including he be serious infections in blood clots, some fatal cancers including lymphomas, skin heart attack, stroke, and gi tears occurred. people 50 and older with a heart disease risk factor have an increased risk of death. serious allergic reactions can occur. tell your dr. if you are or may become pregnant help heal your painful again disrupt the pitch and rash of eczema talk to your dr. about brynn folk. >> learn how abby can help you save >> you can catch bad 5% on travel purchase through chase with freedom unlimited by a better place switch to a king suite and focus silent retreats, silent retreat you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter or a human cannonball... or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year! not only will you save hundreds but you'll also be joining millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. visit xfinitymobile.com today to learn more. >> vegas the story of sin city, 109810 on cnn we are back talking about tiktok with coy shocky, the director of foreign and >> defense policy studies at the american enterprise institute. and glenn gusto, who is the former general counsel at the national security agency. so corey, how do you explain trump's flip-flop? he tried to ban tiktok. courts basically said he couldn't do it at least not by executive three and now he's recently said, i'm not sure that's a good idea because in his view, that will make facebook bigger and to him, facebook is the real enemy. >> yeah, i think it's one more example of the chaos premium that americans and the world are going to pay if we reelect donald trump as president of the united states because he doesn't appear to have any principles that guide his judgment, except either financial influence or personal event data, and that he thinks facebook is no different and know better than companies that have relationships with the chinese government is just a demonstration of how chaotic that trump administration was in office and will be in office if reelected. >> glenn tell us about the court issue you were general counsels trump tried to do this. court's blocked it i my layman's understanding of constitutional law suggests that this legislation could easily be ruled unconstitutiona l by the supreme court if it went all the way up there >> i think there's an issue about that. there's a technical issue about whether congress is allowed to a single out a particular company. i don't think that's a problem here, but i do think the first amendment issue is one that is not easily please. dismissed. you know, when president trump tried to ban, wechat, a very popular chinese app with his super popular in china. and here in the united states has millions of users especially among those who speak mandarin the ninth circuit court of appeals said, whoa, not so fast there first amendment issues here and impose an injunction on that. i think it's entirely possible that a social media platform used by 170 million americans and businesses, including state governments. anyway, for the federal government in a form of what is essentially a public square could well be viewed as the kind of public speech platform that the first amendment protects. so we'll have to see if there ever is a court case, but i certainly don't think it's an easy question. >> all right. on that note, we will leave it here. we may come back to you because this issue is not going away and i really want to thank both of you for such a thank you. civil and thoughtful conversation. patient about it. >> thanks. >> next on gps ai is transforming modern warfare. and soon enough, silicon chips, instead of human beings could be deciding whom to kill where we come back, i'll talk to an about ways to prevent all our disaster space shuttle columbia, the final flight from your sunday, april 7 at nine on cnn >> constant contacts advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time every time konstan contact helping the small stamped all bother the bugs. >> match your family >> ziba was made with essential oils which attack bugs biological system finn whites cleanly plus is safe for use around people in past. zero, people friendly, but i'm deadly. >> toe fungus is tough to kill and it can spread it's time to start using funky nail maximum strength bungie nail is so powerful, it cures and prevents fungal infections. plus it has aloe and tea tree oil to restore skin house, say good by the toe fungus with bungie nail >> the omaha steaks semiannual sale is back right >> now. >> you'll say >> 50% sitewide on america's best steaks, chicken burgers, and so much more who are all backed by our 100% guarantee that you'll love every bite. and for limited time, when you go to omaha steak com slash t.v. you'll get 12 omaha a steaks, burgers free with your order. there's an omaha steaks.com slash tv today and say big on the quality you deserve. >> when you're home needs work. where do you go? 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because at some level, you know, we've had smart weapons for a long time. if you go back to the first gulf war, some human being would say to the, to the missile program, the missile to say go hit that bunker. but but through this window and the missile would go through that window now, what you say is, we're fighting a war against this, this enemy, figure out the most effective places to strike the missiles and go strike them. and the computer we're using all the data, figure out what the optimal targets are, and then going and launch the missiles. >> well, right now that humans are still saying what targets to go after. but the ai onboard the drone is able to sense those targets. so we're able to sense that's an enemy tank or a truck, or an armored personnel carrier and that's a decision that we're increasingly seeing then humans seating two machines, right >> so in other words, we're saying right now the human is the human doesn't need to be in the loop because if if you would just say, do the most effective strikes that will cripple putins are army in this area. the machine would figure out what that word that was. >> in fact, there's a there's a strong incentive to take humans inside of the loop. >> because >> as we've seen, drones used extensively in ukraine in both sides are using thousands of drones in the air. >> while the >> vulnerability there is the communications linked here the human, because most of these drones over remotely piloted. and so we've seen also an explosion in counter drone systems like jammy and autonomy allows the human to step out of that that vulnerability and allow the drug to operate without a communication it's linked to a human. >> so in a sense, what you're saying is the most effective mechanized warfare would now be the machines figuring out the targets themselves, going and striking the targets themselves correcting course of they noticed the crockett has moved firing back if the essentially engaging in all this without any human involvement when you're talking about drone on, drone that sounds fine. what's wrong with it? what's the concern? >> well, there's a couple of concerns. one is that the machine may get it wrong, may target the wrong thing, causing civilian casualties. >> maybe in before a conflict starts, even escalating the conflict. and we've seen lots of places around the world. war military is operator forces near each other in the black sea the south china sea, and the idea that an ai system might make a mistake >> follow whatever >> it was trained to do. but then attack a target that's not what a human wanted it to do. >> one of the things you worry about is that we are entering this age of generative ai where the computers are going to be able to do much more than just pick the targets and things describe what you think. and i don't think this is disturbing because it's a very likely future where what is ai get used in the military realm? four well, one of the things that we've already seen is that these more capable general purpose models like chat-gpt, can perform a whole wide range of tasks. they can play chess, they can all right computer code. they can also do things that might be misused. so if they can write computer code, they can also be used to aid in cyber attacks they can be used to help conduct scientific experiments and people have demonstrated that they could help people and building and designing chemical and biological weapons we want to ensure that as there's tremendous advantages with this technology, there is also sufficient guardrails around it, so that it's not misused by actress who might want to cause harm. >> but right now there's no agreement, no arms control process for ai in militaries at all. >> well, that's right. there is >> no specific agreement surrounding ai we have seen do not eat states make a statement in 2022 that their official policy is that they will keep humans always in the loop for nuclear weapons decisions. >> but russians and chinese have not said that. >> they have not said that. >> and that seems like a low bar to clear when we think about where do we want to make sure that humans are always in control? but i think it is concerning that we haven't seen that from all nuclear arm states yet. >> what's the most dystopian thing you worry about >> some chinese scholars have theorized about an idea called a singularity on the battlefield. a point in time in the distant future where the pace of ai driven combat so fast that humans have to be taken out of the loop that humans can't possibly respond much less, what we see in areas like automated stock trading. we have high-frequency trading happening. it's super-human speeds and the concern then is that militaries would have to see you control to machines in order to remain effective. and humans would be effectively on the sidelines. and then the challenge there is, how do you ensure that humans are many control of work? how would we end wars? i think that's a very, it's not a near-term problem, but that's something that concerns me in the future >> ball. pleasure to have you on. thank you. thank you. thanks for having me. >> next on gps? haiti is in crisis. once again why does this nation seemed perpetually on the brink of collapse? 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tak the airport and he couldn't get back into haiti, so he was trying to get back in he did not he was hoping not to resign, i think. but then the situation forced him to resign. he was too unpopular and then he couldn't even get back into the country. so he's in puerto rico now. but this insurgency is very serious because the gangs have been somewhat disparate. there are 200 gangs, some of them very large, and some of them small. the larger ones you would have to call paramilitaries really, they're funded, they have lots of arms, army style arms, and they have now started to really attack haitian state institutions. for example, the police force, which is the only force of order in haiti. today, there is no haitian army to speak of and they burn down the house of the chief of police that's like burning down that has of the highest general in the army and the united states at the moment in haiti, the gangs are attacking the state, but they're also attacking neighborhoods. so it's confusing for the people of haiti. they don't really know what the gang stand for. and meanwhile, there's a semi democratic process trying to take place. run in part, or at least conducted in part by caricom, the caribbean community. and organization of caribbean states >> how the gangs that are taking over the government or taking over the country seemed to be msis, you said their work funded, but from what i can tell, that's a lot of drug money funding it and it's it feels like this would be bad for haiti, of course, but also could lead to mass migration to the united states what happens if this, these gangs do take over the country? >> well, the games have started making noises about how democratic they are and how much they care about the haitian people. but i think the haitian people are wise enough to recognize that they have been deeply harmed by the gangs over the past two-and-a-half years so i don't think that's going to wash and i think you're right, it's moving toward narco-state. it's not just drug traffickers who are funding these bands of armed men, but they are very important in how this has worked out and everyone is worried that this will be a narco-state. and yes, of course, that could lead to mass migration. it's already leading to some migration because people are forced out of their home, something like 300,000 people have been displaced in recent years. >> in a sense, the biden administration is hoped that they could just avoid getting involved in this and that it didn't it didn't blow up on them, but they kind of looks like it is blowing up because i mean, in the old days when something like this happened, washington would send in the troops pick a new prime minister, and try to stabilize things. >> it's confusing for them because as you said, usually we send in the marines it's over. we put someone in place and that's done. but now there is you could call it the democratic facade for that kind of regime change. but it's definitely a present facade and they're working on replacing ariel henry with a consensus choice. to lead the country to actual elections and to come down the security situation. but how you calm it down without a force of equal power and to calm the gangs, i don't know. and i think the americans are equally stymied. they don't want to be seen to be forcing the game, but in fact, they're still playing behind the scenes it seems like one of these classic dilemma is, if you don't go in, if you go in, you'll be seen as an imperialist. if you don't go in, there will be chaos and anarchy might seem negligent in not going very go well. i don't envy the biden administration this is a really tough diorama >> amy will >> always a pleasure to have you on. thank you so much. >> thanks >> and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week, i will see you next week. >> don't forget if you ms a. show, go to cnn.com slash fareed for a link to my itunes podcast via headliner las vegas that's what i want to do. >> it's online get anywhere else in the world. >> vegas, the story of sin city, tonight, 8-10 on cnn >> you need t-mobile home internet with t-mobile has home internet >> whatever weather comes your way. whether tech has you covered with a laser measured kernel? 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