Transcripts For CNNW Election 20240702

country and giving us an early read on what they're thinking as the nation is heading into an unprecedented, unprecedented presidential election year. the contest american democracy as it's never been tested before. this is cnn's coverage of america's choice 2023. i'm erin burnett. >> and i'm jake tapper. we are about to get the first results of the night possible clues about the political trends in 2024 and the potentially historic and divisive rematch between president joe biden and former president donald trump. polling places just closed in the eastern half of kentucky. the commonwealth has one of two governors races tonight. new measure of the democrats strengths and weaknesses on republican turf. popular democratic governor andy beshear is fighting to keep his job in kentucky, where president biden is in louisville, kentucky. let's go to king in columbus, ohio. she's tracking the state's abortion rights ballot measure. king has there been last minute campaigning on this issue. >> it's still happening as we are speaking, jake. there's 90 minutes left on the clock and both sides of this issue, it is known here as issue one, say that they are continuing to make the calls to hit those undecideds, to still try to persuade to the very, very last minute and to get people to the polls, because the polls don't close until 730. i'm hearing that from both sides. they believe that it is going to be the defining issue of 23 leading into 24. what they are expecting here i am at a pro issue one event and what they expect is that as those first returns start to come in tonight, it will be favorable for them, favorable for the abortion choice rights group on enshrining those abortion rights into the state constitution. but what they're really cautioning people about is that it's those early votes that come in first that are counted, and those tend to lean to the democrats and so as the night goes on, those numbers are going to start to shift as other parts of the state come in and the question will be, quote, where do we land? that is what we are hearing from one of the activists here at this event. they are encouraged by the turnout, though, jake. the question is, is where is that turnout? who are those voters and will it be for the groups that are supporting issue one? and a real test of this democratic theory on abortion. >> all right, ken law in columbus, ohio. we'll come back to you a lot of times throughout the night. thanks so much. and i am at the magic wall right now with who else but john king. john we're expecting a lot of very tight races tonight. what are you going to keep your eye out for? >> let's start by looking at what we have. our very first votes. we have our very first votes in the kentucky governor's race. and let's just noted, it's early in the night. what matters is later tonight, but we'll count them all as they come in. the incumbent democrat, andy beshear, with a very narrow 12 vote early lead in just this one county out here. but what are we looking for tonight, whether it's the abortion initiative in ohio, whether it's the legislative races in virginia, whether it's this race right here in kentucky, the suburbs, and can abortion. right. forces continue their momentum? if they do, then democrats perform well in the suburbs or that ballot initiative will perform well in the suburbs and they come out on top, if not virginia. you mentioned governor youngkin trying to sell a compromise, 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, interesting feedback. i've sort of started to get especially from democrats, is that they are picking up that the electorate is just one. one person used the word torched in an email to me. right. they are over it. they are exhausted. they are like everything is weighing down on people, whether it's, you know, the war in the middle east, whether it's inflation, whether it's all of that. they're just exhausted. >> that means bad news for an incumbent or the incumbent party . but it's so mixed up right now because of where the parties are in these various. let's just focus on today in these various states. >> but we've seen that exhaustion before. we saw it in 2020. we saw it in 2022, where in our exit polls going into both of those cycles, voters told us they didn't like either party. they didn't like either incumbent. they were dissed, satisfied with the direction of their political leaders. and yet that was not necessarily predictive of voters voting in any one way or another. so it's an important feature these days, especially of the electorate. but how that will land is, i think, still very, very emotional. >> right. and that's a key test here. is that emotion still there? >> a lot to talk about. and we have all night to do it as we see the votes come in. >> better company. >> dana, back to you. jake. at any moment, we expect more votes to drop in the high stakes kentucky governor's race. and we're counting down to our first possible chance to make projections tonight. 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or helpful hello, medicare l licend insurance e agents. hellllo, medicacare. say hello to an e er way to do medicicare. with h fat signgns. >> creatate custom grgraphics tt get t tails and tonongues waggi. fast signs. >> make your statement closed captioning is brought to you by csl. >> the creosote sweeping log helps clean your chimney. you've probably been meaning to clean your chimney with csl. it's so easy. burn just once every 60 fires csl the log with the chimney sweep on the box is. >> welcome back and i have a key race alert foror you fromm the commmmonwealth o of kentuckyky.u look, the votes are coming in from the eastern part of kentucky and attorney general daniel cameron, the republican who is challenging the incumbent democrat daniel cameron, is 814 votes ahead. he has 57.2% of the vote. the incumbent democratic governor, andy beshear, has 42.7% of the vote. we don't even know what percentage of the vote is this is going to represent because the votes, the polls are still open in the western part of the state. this is just a little bit of the vote and just a little shaving of it. but this is the vote that we have in as of right now. let's go to mississippi now, another governor's race where a democrat named pressley is hoping to shake up the governor's race and unseat the republican governor. there tate reeves. diane gallagher is covering all the action she is in jackson, mississippi. and diane, the king elvis is he actually playing any sort of role in this race? >> i can tell you that the democratic candidate, brandon pressley, has not shied away from mentioning his very famous second cousin. but what they say they're paying attention to more is exactly what you see here in jackson right now. these lines that are sort of snaking around the new jerusalem baptist church polling place that we're in at the moment. and part of that is because for the first time since 1890, voting for governor in mississippi will be determined only by the popular vote. they amended the state constitution to reform the way that all statewide officials, including governors, are elected. under the old system, candidates had to win a majority of the popular vote and a majority of state house districts. now, voting rights groups as well as democrats have long said that that old process that it diluted black voters and mississippi has the highest percentage of black residents in the nation. now, look, pressley says that he has a diverse coalition of supporters that range from the tennessee border all the way to the gulf shores. but i will tell you, jake, that democrats are watching here in jackson, as well as the delta area, very closely, saying they feel like black turnout could give them an indicator of whether or not the democrat could potentially pull off an upset. >> all right, diane gallagher in jackson, mississippi, thanks so much. >> we're getting some new exit poll information out of ohio right now. and this is obviously a bellwether looking ahead to the 2024 election. david chalian has those numbers david. >> jake, as you know, ohio has been leaning red of late in presidential politics, but we took this opportunity in our exit poll to get a sense of those showing up to vote in ohio today. what they think about president biden and donald trump . president biden's approval rating in the buckeye state, 41% of the voters today participating in this election. those who also voted early are represented in this exit poll. 41% approve, 57% disapprove. that's about what biden's averages nationally. and then we asked folks, should joe biden be running for president? look at these results nearly three quarters of voters in ohio today say no, joe biden should not be running for reelection. only 26% of ohio voters say he should. donald trump's not popular either, but his numbers are a bit better than the president's 64, nearly two thirds of ohio voters to say say trump should not be running for president. about a third say he should clearly, this is not a match up. ohioans are looking for. and when it comes to the issue of abortion, again, these early exit polls do indicate we asked whether or not abortion should be legal in all cases. most cases. look at the top two figures there, jake. if you add up 33% and 29, more than 6 in 10 voters in ohio today say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. that is a robust turnout of the pro-abortion rights movement, which, as you know, abortion rights very much on the ballot there in ohio jake. >> yeah, absolutely. >> david chalian, thank you so much. let me throw it to aaron burnett in new york. erin >> all right, jake. >> and you know, looking at these exit polls, audie, i think one thing interesting, you see a shift, not just that people care about this issue, but if you look at ohio, right, as david was just saying, you add up people who think it should be legal, abortion should be legal in some or or most cases, 62. that was 51% in the year 2020. so you've seen actually a real and definitive shift in the electorate just in the past few years. >> i think one of the things people should sort of keep an eye on over the next couple of months is how have both democrats and republicans altered their messaging around abortion rights in the aftermath of the midterm elections? in the case of the ohio ballot, it specifically mentions not just abortion, but about about control lives, about other decisions related to a woman's body. and i think framed around the issue of would you want all these rights taken away and also abortion. it's a very different question and could explain some of the numbers we're seeing. but it's one of the things i'm keeping on the rest of the night. >> and fascinating, david, because when you look at it, it's very clear where voters stand on this issue. and in ohio, it's not it's not that you're looking through this issue to get a lens on how people voted on a candidate. right? these are the issues that are actually on the ballot tonight. >> abortion. >> listen, audie nailed it, right. it's how how it's being talked about. right. so republicans blew it in 2020. in the past, instead of saying, would you would you vote to codify roe versus wade? right. that's how it should have been presented. right because if you'd say where you vote to codify roe versus wade, people would say, well, sure, we'd do that. right? but that's not how it was presented, right? you know, republicans went and said this is states rights issue. let's states do it. and then as soon as that happened, they said, wait, we don't want we want we want to take it away from the states. we want a federal ban. and vote state. >> they said we want a little more. >> we want more and more and more. we want a ban. and so republicans got burned last time and now they're trying to walk it back a little bit. you see glenn youngkin messaging it a little differently. right. we'll see if it works tonight. but as he said, you know, she nailed it. democrats are on to something. you're going to see. they're going to keep expanding that beachhead right on on this issue. and we'll see if it continues to be salient tonight. >> listen, this was largely a hypothetic debate. the issue around life and abortion rights when roe was the law of the land that fundamentally changed under dobbs and you've seen how positions have i have not seen a policy position move so rapidly on the right. the most pro-life, consistently pro-life republican members now saying they would support 15 weeks when it used to be we want to throw row on the ash heap of history. that is because they are hearing from voters. ohio is a red state. you know, trump won it 53 to joe biden, 40. >> like you couldn't get to the white house without ohio. it became a red state. >> it's very actually in that state, somebody who's a pro-choice person may actually elevate themselves. but across the board, i think republicans went too far. >> you know, and i think this is actually also an issue that opens up. it gives a little bit of a message opening for democrats on other issues, too, because what you've seen is a democratic message about republicans taking away your rights, taking away your freedoms. that's really resonated. we see in this polling, people feel threatened specifically on abortion, but that also opens up credibility on other issues. and so especially as democrats are grappling with joe biden's lack of popularity in ohio, for example, this gives them an opening to say this is not just about reproductive health. this is also about a broader agenda to take away your rights. and so i think as democrats are looking for ways to expand this beyond just abortion, that's one way to do it. it could be used as an issue that could help biden, where obviously, you know, when you look at these approval numbers and people wanting him to run, obviously struggling. >> all right. all staying with us through the night and all of you, please stay with us because we are getting closer to the end of all voting in both kentucky and virginia. we've got some new results coming in. and dana going to be speaking live with the virginia governor, glenn youngkin, about the republicans fight for control of the general assembly and, of course, the ongoing speculation about his political future. we'll be back in a moment. >> the new cnn prime time is where the truth shines. the day's biggest stories are the night's most essential reporting . this is the new cnn primetime weeknights starting g at 7:00 on cnn. >> i'm sara a etheridge.e. i'm e life e enrichment t director a t indepependence villagege, a senr living community in waukee, iowa. > e everybody here rereally,y makess you feeeel like family ad that t they love youu.. >> our g goal with t tiktok waso enenrich the l lives of our r rt cats andnd just to be able to sw people whahat senior l living ce like. >> i t think i am m a t tiktok grandma. m my kids thihink i ami mean, we're the ones that are beining 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three key things here. number one, an aggressively encourage early voting and vote by mail. that's what's different than a lot of republican over the last several years. travel into deep blue parts of the state and also just keep youngkin on a very consistent message. and that has been what they've tried to do again and again as they seek to flip the senate. the state senate here, which is currently held by democrats. now, i'm where the democrats are going to gather tonight. of course, they're hoping to do the opposite. but youngkin and his team have really put a tremendous amount of resources in expand early voting for republicans and encouraging early voting and vote by mail for republicans. so we'll see if that actually works to their benefit here. democrats, of course, have a large advantage because their voters have been used to doing that. and he wants to obviously push an abortion ban. that would be 15 weeks with the exception for life of the mother, incest and rape. that's something that senate democrats foiled for him. that's part of his agenda that he'd like to get through jake. >> all right. jessica dean, thanks so much. dana. >> thanks, jake. >> and now let's hear directly from the virginia governor about what's at stake tonight. governor glenn youngkin, thank you so much for being here. you are not on the ballot. you are hoping, though, as jessica was reporting, that you can win tonight so that you have a republican controlled legislature across the board. how are you? been out campaigning a lot. how are you feeling about what's happening on the ground? >> well, dana, first of all, thank you for having me. and i feel great. and it's based on the fact i think we've had a great campaign by so many of our great candidates, and it really reflects a great 22 months in the commonwealth of virginia. we've delivered on every promise that we made. and today we see virginia at the top of job growth number three in the nation over the last 22 months. when we started out in the bottom third of job growth, 230,000 more virginians working today than when we started. we've delivered $5 billion of tax relief during this time period. and we promised virginians we'd go to work to get the cost of cost of living down in virginia. and that's a track record that i think virginians are going to the polls today. and i invite them to hopefully extend our license to lead, help us keep our house and flip our senate so that we can do even more. >> so you mentioned a lot of economic issues. one of the other issues that you have been and your allies have been pushing hard is the issue of abortion. and one of the most fascinating things about your strategy, governor, has been the way that you are taking what a lot of republicans owns in the midterms ran away from the issue of abortion and trying to address it in a way that a lot of strong anti abortion groups were hoping for example, as you talked about, i know today, saying that it is a 15 week, 15 week limit, not using the word ban. and of course, with exceptions after 15 weeks, is your hope that not only that helps in virginia, but that you're providing a roadmap for other republicans than abortions . >> one of the toughest issues in virginia, and it's one of the toughest issues around the country. and as we as we presented our strategy and what we will absolutely deliver for virginians, we want it to be really clear that that i support a bill to protect life at 15 weeks when a baby feels pain, even at a time when exceptions can be made in the case of rape and incest and the mother's life is at risk. and i think this is a really important point because we're the other side has been is to extend abortion all the way up through and including birth, paid for with taxpayer money. and so that was way too extreme for virginians. and i think it was really important for folks to understand that this is a choice between no limits and reasonable limits. and across virginia, while i know abortion is an important topic, the number one topic that i hear over and over again is how the biden economy is making life so difficult. nearly 60% of americans are living paycheck to paycheck. inflation is stealing their hard earned money. they're worried about jobs. and that's why i do believe that if we can come to a common place on abortion, we, of course, can bring to virginians a reduced cost of living tax relief. great jobs, excellence and education, safe communities. and that's what people want. >> yeah. and i just want to say that that you mentioned that a lot of democrats want abortion up until birth. even in virginia . yes, there are. it allows right now the current law allows for doctors to consult for very, very limited situations. but i want to turn to what this might mean for next year, for 2024, donald trump, he's still far and away the leader in the republican primary. he endorsed you for governor back in 2021. are you ready to return the favor? endorse him? >> well, of course we are. we are laser focused on 2023. and, dan, i'd say that i think there's still about 20 or 25 minutes left for virginia to come out and vote. and i'd encourage them, please come out and vote and make your voice heard. send me a team into richmond that can work with after that fight, after the polls closed, not done. >> are you going to endorse and dan, after polls close? >> i'm not i'm not going to endorse anyone. i think that voters should choose who the nominee is. and then, of course, i will support the republican nominee. >> are you going to get in at all any chance in 2024, dan? >> i've been asked this so much over so many times over the course of the last year. i'm humbled by it. i'm focused on virginia. we've got a lot of work to do. and i think tonight we're going to demonstrate that the work that we've been doing has been not only appreciated by virginians, but they're willing to give us our majority back in our house. and help us flip the senate so we can do even more. this is so important for virginians, and i think it's important for the nation to demonstrate that we, in fact, can take a state that just 24 months ago was completely controlled by democrats and with common sense policies. we can turn the direction and take it from from falling behind to leading. and that's that's one of the most important things i think we can demonstrate it today and going forward. >> thank you, governor. i didn't hear a no. there i didn't hear a yes, but didn't hear a no. governor, thank you so much. appreciate your time tonight. jake, thanks, dana. >> and as the governor noted, we are just a few minutes away. we're closing in on the first votes from virginia. we're polling places are closing at the top of the hour. we're also getting closer to unveiling cnn's new 2024 presidential poll. and what it reveals about a potential biden trump rematch. it's all coming up as voters are casting ballots across the nation. stay with us. >> tomorrow, after the 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risk of lung cancer. and they're anti-aging. because you're more likely to die younger from a stroke. in big tobacco's fantasyland, the deadliest industry can rebrand itself as your friend. and free panel at four patriots.com. i'm melissa bell in cairo. >> and this is cnn. welcome back. >> we have a key race alert for you now in the kentucky governor's race. if you look at attorney general daniel cameron, a republican, is 814 votes ahead. he leads right now with 3% of the vote in. he's at 51. the incumbent democratic governor, andy beshear, is at 49. a lot of votes still to be counted. in fact, a lot of polls are still open there. let's walk over to the magic wall where we can talk to john king about some of the results coming from kentucky, as well as what he's seeing in the great state of ohio. so, john, so let's start with kentucky. >> you made the key point. it's 3% of the estimated vote. so we got a long way to go in the count. a lot of counties and this part of the state, the central time zone, part of kentucky, is still voting for another, oh, 15, 16 minutes. but we love to count votes. and so you have a very close race so far. we expect a very competitive race here throughout the night. not much to make of what we see so far, except that the votes are starting to come in. i say that because if you look here, jefferson county, where louisville is, fayette county, where frankfort is, then you start moving over here, paducah, owensboro, bowling green, about 25% of the state population lives in jefferson and fayette right there. so there's no votes in from the biggest population centers. if you look at the other dots on the map that gets you over 30% of the population. so we have a long way to go here. but what are we watching for? number one, you know, here and here is where the governor, the democrat, andy beshear, the incumbent, needs to run it up. those are your african-american base, your democratic party, the close in suburbs that have become so democratic. he asks where he needs to run it up, but andy beshear family, we talked about this earlier, family name very well known in the state, has a unique brand. kenny overcome the biden drag. we'll see that in the suburbs as it plays out. you mentioned ohio. polls closed there at the top of the hour. it's a ballot initiative on the map there. so obviously, it's an empty map right now. here's the question you know, should the ohio constitution have a constitutional right to abortion right. and so what are we going to look for? remember kansas sent the first shock wave here after the dobbs decision. ruby red kansas said, whoa, supreme court went too far. a lot of republicans said supreme court went too far. republicans looking to ban abortion. you're going too far. that's what kansas said. will another red state say that? if you look at the 2020 results here, the presidential race, you know, donald trump won this state by eight points. it is a red state, pockets of blue. you see them around cleveland. but here's what i'm looking for. oops, sorry about that. you go to come to lake lake county, right. a more conservative suburb outside north of cleveland, up along the lake. some of the suburbs here around toledo. and the more exurban areas as you move out that donald trump carried. that's what we want to watch tonight. you know, in the democratic blue areas, the abortion rights forces are going to win. the question is, as we saw in kansas, as we saw in michigan, do more conservative republican suburbs and exurbs say no, supreme court, you went too far down. was just talking about the implications of this in virginia for a lot. we'll get a lot of clues tonight about voters in a blue state presidential level. but a republican governor of virginia in a very red state here in ohio are republicans, especially republicans in the suburbs and the exurbs saying, whoa, that went too far. >> yeah, we've seen six states go in the abortion rights direction in since the supreme court overturned roe v wade. and three of them are republican. can we've seen kentucky, we've seen kansas and we've seen montana all go in that direction straight ahead, critical round of poll closings. we are standing by for results when all voting ends in the commonwealth's of kentucky and virginia, tonight's contests are teeing up the 2024 election as we're about to release cnn's exclusive new poll on president biden, former president trump and the 2024 presidential race. first, we're going to squeeze in this quick break. stay with us. >> vote for cnn hero of the year at cnn heroes .com. >> hey, human, what if you and you can try it. risk free. you have nothing to lose. go check it out now go to crystal flush.com. the kidnapers hit this town right in its heart. >> i thought we're going to die. we're going to die getting the hell out of here. >> it was possibly the story of the century. >> chowchilla sunday, december 3rd, on cnn and we have another key race for you alert in the commonwealth of kentucky, looking at the governor's race there, and andy beshear the incumbent democratic governor has pulled ahead as the votes have come in. he is now almost 20,000 votes ahead. governor beshear has 58.2% of the vote. the republican attorney general daniel cameron has standing by for the last polling places to close in the commonwealth of kentucky, voting is also about to end in virginia, where we are following a very consequential battle. gop governor glenn youngkin and his party are hoping that republicans can win full control of the virginia general assembly. the house of delegates. that would clear the way for youngkin to advance his conservative education agenda as well as his proposed restoring actions on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. virginia's off year elections are often seen as bellwethers of bigger presidential battles ahead. as we close in on the end of voting and kentucky and virginia in this year, let's check back in with eva mccann, who is covering the governor's race in kentucky. she's in louisville. eva, what are you hearing from democrats about what is driving their votes. >> yeah, jake, what has been remarkable to see is abortion really serve as a base motivator for democrats here in kentucky, we met voters that are really fired up about this issue. and it's not that these democratic voters in places like fayette and jefferson county wouldn't have already been inclined to support democratic governor andy beshear. it's that this really got them to pay attention to this off year election. and that is so vital at a time when only about half of the state's registered voters are expected to participate. that is why we saw governor beshear center this so much. he has this searing ad that played featuring a young woman who is the victim of sexual assault as a way to illustrate that republicans, many of them in this state, including historic daniel cameron, do not accept exceptions for rape and incest. and that is actually the current law here. so we've seen this become a hugely galvanized rising issue for democrats here. we have to see now by how much and if this is going to be the issue that brings the governor over the edge here jake. >> all right. david mccann in louisville, kentucky, thanks so much. let's go to ohio now where we find kyung lah. big abortion rights, referenda item on the ballot there. and kyung, what are activists on both sides of this issue expecting this evening? >> yes, what they are expecting this evening is that it is going to be very, very close. >> that's what i've heard from both sides, that they expect that the early initial returns because the early vote will be counted first. and it tends to favor democrats that it will favor the pro issue one. and advocates enshrining abortion rights into the constitution. but as the night wears on, it will be a question of whether that lead can hold. that will be the big question. if it does, what we are hearing from the issue one advocates the pro-abortion forces, what they are saying is that there will have been one message that will be tested here in ohio and will have rung true. it is that the government needs to stay out of the personal lives of voters. that was the message that they pushed all along. they are very aware this is a republican controlled state that they need. republicans and independents, libertarians to come out and support this measure if they are successful. that is the message that will win here. >> all right. kyung lah in columbus, ohio, thanks so much. and i'm back here at the magic wall with john king. and john, we saw governor beshear, the democratic incumbent, jump ahead as the votes came in. where did this new batch of votes come from? >> and it went from a very close race to what is a healthy lead right now with only 10% of the vote. so everybody stay with us as we go. but how did that happen? well, last time you were here, i was saying the major population centers, we had nothing. and now we do have jefferson county. by far, it's more than 17% of the state population. so we finally got some votes in there. still only 16. but you see this is the this is number one. your democratic african-american base number two, you're close in suburbs which have trended democratic. the question for governor beshear is, can he keep them? can he keep them in this election right now at 76, 21 election four years ago, he was at 67% in jefferson county. so at the moment, he's overperforming. if he stays near that number, he'll be reelected. but again, 16, largely early votes. they tend to be democratic mail in ballots and things. so let's wait and go through. but he's doing what he needs to do so far. that's jefferson county there. and then you come over here to fayette county, where lexington is. again, it's your second largest county in the state. he's running at 80. if you go back four years ago, i think he was in the high 60s. let's go back and take a look. 66% four years ago. and he beat an unpopular incumbent governor four years ago. but so if you're andy beshear and you're looking at this now, now you're you're above if he stays there, game over. but again, it's 20% of the vote. and these tend to be what you get the mail in early ballots, which tend to be democratic. but if you are him, you're meeting your metrics. if there's one place you're worried about, but it's only 20% of the vote, campbell county up here, cincinnati, ohio. these are suburbs in northern kentucky. they're essentially the cincinnati suburbs. andy beshear won this last time. donald trump won it in 2020. it's only 2% of the state population. but if you're always looking in a rematch, an incumbent running again can he match his map? last time? this is a county he did win last time. so we'll keep an eye on that. if he keeps running up the margins like he is in louisville and lexington at the moment, he could offset that. but you're at 11. so we have a long way to go. but governor beshear is grateful to see the big early margins in the population centers. >> can i see how he did four years ago up there in those cincinnati suburbs? >> sure. so if you come here for andy beshear, carried these suburbs. he carried them both. if you look at campbell county here and you look at come over here, come back this way, why are we stuck? well, let me come out and see. all right. there we go. campbell and kenton there. that time it came up. sometimes she plays tricks on you. you see andy beshear just barely. right? just barely. but if you look at you come to the 2020 presidential race, donald trump won one these quite healthy. so that that has been the beshear brand he can compete in traditionally republican areas. the question is, can he keep that going tonight as you're heading into 2024, as you have the incumbent president as a democrat underwater, he just flipped it. see, if you stay at the magic wall long enough, now you're up to 32% and he flipped it. so that's why we say that's that's for me fun. i know partizans at home don't find this fun when things are jumping around. >> do you like the voters to have a yeah, it's just this is why live on election night while you're standing here things can change. >> and while this is the most important number that's significant, you're meeting your early metrics. if you're andy beshear at the moment, you're happy. but you also know you have a long way to go in a very, very competitive state. so if you're daniel cameron, what are the areas that you're looking for to drive up count? >> obviously, you want to eat into bashir's count in the population centers, but what are some places you really want to drive up your vote? >> so you pick a rural county here, right? you come out to the more rural areas, 30% of the vote in. so this we're having a hypothetical conversation. we need that number to get higher. but he's at 59% right there right now. and you see the number. there's an off year election. it's not going to match presidential turnout. but you want the juice this up. look at the presidential race in these counties when you come in here now right. donald trump gets 80, 81. right. daniel cameron needs to track trump. if andy beshear is running strong in fayette and jefferson in the democratic areas, and if he's close to where he was four years ago, even in the suburbs, then daniel cameron essentially has to in the rural areas, track trump. but this is this has been andy beshear's gift. if you if you look at go back to the 2019 race. right. this is andy beshear in 2019. see all this blue? see all this blue out here? this is a democrat governor in a very red state, running strong. now try to find it. when you look at the presidential race, joe biden only won two counties. joe biden won two counties in kentucky. andy beshear, when he ran for governor, won a boatload because of the brand. the family name. the question is, can he come close to matching this. >> all right, john king, all voting. all voting is about to end in kentucky and in virginia, kentucky's democratic governor, andy beshear, is seeking reelection in and cnn is saying that it is too early to call the polls closed at 7 p.m. and it is too early to call the governor's race in kentucky. we're also going to say that in virginia, it is too early to call the general assembly. no surprise, the polls just closed. it is too early to call the general assembly. that is a ferocious battle going on right now. let's walk over to the panel and we'll talk with abby and dana and caitlin and casey about what's going on. i have to say, the glenn youngkin interview was really interesting. one of the things that's so fascinating is he is trying to steer a path for the republican party that is a non maga path. he had a boot camp. he picked ten candidates in in divisive primaries and conventions. he went ten for ten. he took them to this boot camp that he had the debate coach. he tried to encourage them to accept that joe biden won the 2020 election, which would be something that you would think he wouldn't have to get people to agree to. and they're all very, very conservative. i'm not saying that they're moderates, but they are not maga candidates per se. >> yeah, and that's of course, if you look at any of the ads that the democrats are running, that is the template that all of these republicans are maga candidates. what i and maybe i'm misreading this, i'd love to get everybody else's take what i thought was really interesting is despite the fact that youngkin is leaning in and having the candidates lean into this notion of if you elect a republican full legislature, we will pass a 15 week limit, not a ban, but a limit on abortion. even when i asked him about how things are going, he talked all about the economy, not about abortion. when i asked him about abortion, he talked about it. and then turned to the economy. he's i don't know what on defense. i don't know what that says about what he's seeing. >> very clear that he is in the final days trying to look at this and say, oh, i got to change the subject. like, we'll see how the results play out. but if you read how his body language is shaping up, it's going to be a rough night. >> i also described it as an issue that they can get to a compromise on to move on and talk to other things. that's a really interesting way of framing it, almost as if it's like, let's just put put aside these controversial issues that are basically the third rail of politics and have been for some time. so that we can get to the stuff that i think we're on more solid footing on. and i'm not sure that's really going to work because as we've been discussing, this is a front of mind issue for voters, for democratic voters, certainly, but for a lot of more moderate voters, particularly women who actually are are very open to republic policies. but on this issue, they have been coming out in state after state and they have been saying we do not want to go this far. i would be curious. i mean, i'm curious to see about a 15 week abortion ban with even with the exceptions that they've laid out, because a lot of voters have have not really wanted the government to even go there, even if they personally believe that abortion should not happen. >> it is an interesting test case because they're playing in the suburbs on that very issue. >> yeah, and i think part of the line is being blurred on when we talk to candidates about how many weeks of an abortion ban that they would support. i think right now, where voters seem to be and tonight will be really revealing to see where they are in 2023 is just hearing abortion ban period makes people think of the fact that in some states there are near-total bans on these abortions. virginia is one of the last southern states where there isn't a near-total ban. and i think part of the question has been was he wise to introduce this 15 week idea that he's been pushing is more moderate, calling it a limit? it's still a ban after 15 rebranding, even though they're changing the language on it. the question is how do voters respond to that? and was it wise for him to go and to push this? is it a successful route? i don't think it's totally clear. >> the other thing is, whatever he wants, whatever governor youngkin wants to call it and whatever the candidates he's picked are now agreeing to, the democrats get to say what they want to say, too. and for those of us who don't change the channel, when the commercials come on, that's all the democrats are talking about in the state legislative races that all the democratic ads are about abortion, 100. this republican delegate can idiot this republican state senate candidate is going to ban abortion, period. full stop. that's entirely what democratic candidates, at least in northern virginia, what they're running on. the problem is that if you are going to try to carve a non maga path for the republican party, you have to give the base something. >> and that's, i think, why youngkin has ended up in this place on abortion. they have to offer the base something on this issue that is a bedrock of modern day republican politics. that's a 15 week abortion ban is actually not a very trumpy thing, but it is central to the republican base. and i think this is why this is a test. if you take trumpism, an election denialism out of the picture, can you do enough to motivate a republican leaning voters to get them out to the polls and bring in more moderates? we'll find out. but that is what he is testing right now. but, you know, it's interesting. >> you say it's maga. and i think this is a little bit of a rorschach test because. yes if you are very, very conservative on the issue of abortion, you could say, okay, it's pretty good. it's at least there's a there's a ban or a limit, whatever you want to call it, starting at the second trimester. what he's trying to do is appeal to suburban women or people who are looking at the abortion issue and saying, you know what? i don't think that there should be abortion allowed in an unlimited way. but they also don't think that there should be a total ban. they're trying to find the word he used was compromised. i don't know if it exists. >> the fall of roe versus wade was an absolute political disaster for republicans. it just was it was an absolute political disaster. they have to figure out how to grapple with it. glenn youngkin wants to have a national profile. all the ads he aired in virginia, they were not about these individual candidates. they were about glenn youngkin. right. he fronted this this was supposed to be the springboard for his whatever he's going to do next on the national stage, whether that's now or in however many years. and it's really looking like it didn't work. and i mean, to abby's point, he is caught between a republican base that cares deeply about this issue and the realities of trying to win voters in the suburbs. i mean, this is why democrats have been doing so well. >> and it's not just the suburbs of virginia, as we've seen. it's the voters in the suburbs in kansas city and in columbus. and kentucky. we're going to see what happens in ohio tonight, in montana, to the truth of the matter is, is that there are a lot of republicans throughout the country, including in red states that do not approve of roe v wade being overturned. >> a smart republican also mentioned to me that this is going to be on the ballot in arizona in 2024, which is a critical swing state. it'll be on the ballot in a lot of states if it's successful. arizona being a very, very important swing. >> more votes ahead as we're on the brink of getting the first results on that. abortion rights ballot measure in ohio and we're moments away from revealing the results of cnn's exclusive new 2024 presidential poll. i know what it says. don't you want to know? it includes a new snapshot of biden versus trump. one year before the potential rematch. that's after this 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we're getting our first look at the results from cnn's new 2024 presidential poll. our political director, david chalian, is here with the very first of this. and we're going to be going through this, david, through the night, because there is a lot of substance in this poll. let's start with what you see as the biggest headline here. >> yeah, aaron, there is a lot in this poll. and again, this is a poll. it's a snapshot in time. it's a year out, but it is instruct of as it sets the stage. take a look at the horse race here between donald trump and joe biden. you see that donald trump has a narrow lead among registered voters, 49% to 45. that's just outside the margin of error. i want to show you some key groups that were critical to joe biden's election as president in 2020. and they are not at the level of support that he needs them to be. take a look heret independents. you see 45, trump, 41% biden. that was a biden plus 30 teen group in the 2020 election. these are registered voters. it's a poll comparing to actual voters in 2020, but instructive. take a look at black voters, 73, biden to 23. trump in our poll, that's 50 point lead, except joe biden three years ago won black voters by 75 points in that election, latino voters basically dead even here, 50. biden, 46% trump. that was a group joe biden won by 33 points. and look at young voters. they are they are deadlocked 47. biden, 48. trump. that was a very strong biden group. he won them by roughly 24 points, just three years ago. some key attributes the key qualities of the candidates, the strong qualities here for joe biden. respect the rule of law. 51% of our poll respondents say that applies to joe biden. only 35% say that that applies t donald trump. honest and trustworthy. you see that joe biden best. donald trump by nine percentage points on that score. flip it to donaltrump's strongest attributes. an effective world leader. he is 12 points ahead of bide on that score, 48% to 36. and has the necessary stamina and sharpness to serve as president only 25% of our poll respondents a quarter say that is true of joe biden. double that 53% say that is true of donald trump. and just in terms of motivation, erin, we are seeing in our poll that republican and republican leaning independent voters, 71% of them extremely motivated to vote, 61% of democrats and democratic leaners say so. that's an enthusiasm advantage. and finally, neither one of these candidates are popular with the american public. look at their favorable numbers. joe biden is at 36% favorable, 59% unfavorable. donald trump's at 38% favorable, 56% unfavorable. and when we look at those who say an unfavorable opinion of both of them, donald trump is actually winning them in this poll by nine points. and he did win that group back in 2016 of what we call the double haters, those that didn't like hillary clinton and donald trump. that was part of his path to the white house in 2016. here he is also winning with the so-called double haters, aaron. >> the double haters, the double negative, turning out to be a positive for him. all right. thank you very much, david chalian. all right. and as i said, there's so much substance here. let's get straight to our panel to go through what david just shared. so, kate, obviously, you know the president well. you've spent a lot of time with him. this is obviously a grim poll for him on every front. but i want to highlight one thing david chalian just said. when you break it down by independents, black voters, women and young voters, 18 to 34 right now, trump is winning by one point call that a dead heat. biden won it by 24 points last time around . that's a stunning slide. yeah look, i mean, this is not a good poll for joe biden. >> the best thing in this poll for joe biden is the date on it, which is november 7th, 2023, and not 2024. >> it's not a great poll. however, there are things here that i think give him a pathway, show a pathway for him. so he obviously has a lot of work to do with some of the core components of the biden coalition, including voters of color, including young voters. but we're seeing in results as they're coming in tonight, there is incredible enthusiasm and energy for the democratic position on issues like abortion . we know that there's enthusiasm on issues like climate. there are issues that speak to young voters where biden and the democrats have an opportunity to draw a really strong contrast. so no question that he has his work laid out for him. no question the campaign knows that. i know from talking to folks on the campaign there certainly don't have their head in the sand on this. but i think given what we see here about people's faith in biden as somebody who's honest and trustworthy, which gives you a credibility opening, people are open to hearing from you if they believe that you're truthful. and then on these issues that we're actually seeing play out in real time in elections where we know biden and democrats have, the more popular. >> so can you hit your horse to an abortion issue or something, van okay. but drilling down here , kate, touching on some of these issues with young voters, independents, black voters, latino voters, latino voters, biden's winning 5246. he won it by 33 points last time around. black voters, 73 to 23. biden won by 75 last time and won one point there to go a little bit deeper among black men, trump actually wins by three points in this poll, 49 to 46. >> shocking, shocking. first of all, overall, the biden harris coalition could be called the humpty dumpty coalition right now just falling apart, just falling apart. the latino vote on the ground, the youth vote on the ground, the black vote on the ground. this is this is not good. now, there is a year to turn it around. the black male, that's that's a stunner. black women have been in the lead, but black men haven't been that far behind. i think you've got a constituency that is losing hope and looking for change. there is a lot of the things that black men were voting for didn't happen yet. nothing yet on voting rights, nothing yet on police reform, nothing yet on criminal justice reform. so a lot of those issues that were important for black male voters haven't been addressed yet. and the economic pain is real. the last thing i'll say is a lot of black male voters are non-college working folks. and some of the stuff that is non-college working, that's working for white working class guys can also work for black working class guys. but you can't just expect for black men to stand in long lines or black women to stand in long lines, get nothing done on policy specifically to them, and then stay in this coalition. >> alyssa, there's also the reality of some of these points that david just went through respects the rule of law. okay? biden crushes trump on that honest and trustworthy, trustworthy. he does better. but only by nine points, effective world leader trump significantly better than biden. this stood out to me. >> 48% think that trump is an effective world leader, as opposed to joe biden's 36. now i traveled with president trump. you know, to some degree, a president is victim of circumstance as joe biden is governing at a time israel and hamas are at war. ukraine is at war. he's he's dealing with a world that feels like it's on fire. yeah, but i my caution to the biden folks is i think these numbers actually only risk going down for him. progressives on the left are not where joe biden is with israel. now, granted, i'm much closer as a republican voter to where joe biden's been on israel, but most republicans are not going to flip from republican position on it. so i think that that's what i'd be keeping my eye on. but at a time when whether it's china and taiwan that trump is seen as a more effective world leader is stunning. and it was a big part of the campaign message. we are going to be democracy. we're going to be the party of democracy. we're going to rebuild the nato coalition, and we're going to lead on the world stage. and that's just not translating to voters. >> you don't think. you don't think. you don't think they pulled kim jong un, do you? listen, i just want to say one thing about the thing that nobody's discussed here. i mean, kate said the best thing about this poll is the date. i think the best thing probably is that trump is terribly unpopular and therefore deeply vulnerable himself at the end of the day. but the date that people are looking at is the date on the president. and that is reflected in this poll. and that's the hard part, because it's a hard thing. you can fight on issues. and i think democrats have the high ground on issues and you're going to see it perhaps tonight in the results in these elections. we don't know yet, but it sure feels that way. but how you deal with that and it becomes a strength issue. i mean, i'm stunned, honestly, by the effect of, you know, leader in the world, because joe biden has shown great leadership. he should be given strength points and they're not giving them to him. >> yeah, real quickly, i was going to say, the one question here, the whole race comes down to this question, has a stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president. that's the race. that's the race. and kate, to your point, 25, one year from now, that's not getting any better. that's going to get worse. you can't fix that. >> but part of what trump is benefiting from here on all of this is sort of receding to the background, which is a crazy thing to say about donald trump. but it's true. it's true when donald trump is front and center and he is making all sorts of bombastic, crazy statements every day, it will feel like more of a contrast. that's what that's what's not reflected in this poll. audie, quickly, i think you have a point. >> trump is just not on stage. so it's easy to have hazy memories about what he is actually. stamina, stamina. and i don't think there are only four years going to improve either. >> i'll stay with because as i said, we've gone through a little bit of this and there's a lot more to talk about and we are just minutes away from the end of voting in ohio. crucial new test of voter sentiment on abortion. these issues that the group is talking about here, how it may play into 2024, those results plus a vote there also on legalizing marijuana. all ahead, being a journalist is the best job in the world. >> thank you so much for doing this, sir. appreciate it. happy to. >> i think we have a big crisis of democracy. >> do you think the united states is headed for a recession? >> i think that that is where jerome powell is trying to drive it. >> my goal is to be a voice for people watching as ukraine going to win this war. why do you think hamas has been releasing hostages? >> because they're under immense pressure asking challenging questions of the folks who run the world, are you ready for the lead with jake 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sp dedeep, learn n more and vieiew importrtant safetyty infnformatt inspirire. bleep.c.com. welcomeo the nbnba in s season toururnamn tnt. >> 30 teamams competee inn adva. one chchance insidide and incnce one chchance insidide and incnce scene we can't here in the bay,s and all of our stuff where we want to go. but, our cars can't take us e with unpaid tolls. vehicles with overdue, unpaid tolls may not be able to renew their registration until outstanding balances are paid. payment assistance is available. visit bayareafastrak.org/ase so go pay your unpaid tolls y and keep your wheels on the ! humanly possible. join papi and phil on cnn this morning, tomorrow at six eastern on. >> and we have another key race alert for you when it comes to the kentucky governor's race. with 32% of the vote in democratic incumbent governor andy beshear remains in first place. he is 61,384 votes ahead with. 56.3% of the vote over his republican chall, th attorney general of the commonwealth of kentucky, daniel cameron, who has 43.7% of the vote. that's with about a third of the vote in right now. we are also closing in on the first results from ohio, where voting ends just minutes from now at 730 eastern. in one of the most closely watched contests tonight, voters in red leaning ohio are deciding whether to amend the ohio state constitution to establish in that constitution a right to an abortion. a yes vote would make ohio the seventh state where voters backed abortion rights since the us supreme court overturned roe v wade last year. this is an important task of this issue for democrats who are making abortion rights central to their message. in 2024. ohio ohioans are also making a choice on whether to become the 24th state in the united states to legalize recreational marijuana use for adults. with just minutes to go before voting ends in ohio, let's go over to john king, who has more on the vote in kentucky. so, john, governor beshear is maintaining his lead. i am wondering how much of this is just because of the early voting and how much of this is because of the vote that is coming in is coming from population centers that are generally democratic? >> it's all the above in the sense that you do have votes coming in. jefferson county, by far 17% of the population. the largest county, the most democratic county, he's at 70% there. only 22% of the vote. and so, you know, let's see if cameron can income the early votes tend to be counted first. they have been for years disproportionately democratic. we don't know if that's the case tonight, but they have been. so you're looking at the two largest counties, jefferson and now fayette here, lexington and the suburbs around it, and andy beshear in the votes counted so far is more than meeting his metrics. this is up to 84% of the estimated. so if he stays above 70% here is this plays out that's a very strong democratic turnout. the number the number we got to look at the math, compare the math to turnout off year election. but it's a governor's race. here's your question, though. right? so you see all the gray down here. that means we have no votes, right. so let's let me draw a line. we have a lot of gray over here. let's just come through this and do this all the way across the state. nothing there, right? many of these are small rural counties, so there's not a lot of math. but let's just go back in time to 2020. let's go to the presidential race. that's trump country, right? that's trump country. so we'll conservatives vote for daniel cameron. and will they turn out not in presidential numbers. that's not going to happen even in a governor's race. but can they can they get turnout in those counties? so we don't know the answer to that question yet. so we have to wait to see, number one, how how big are cameron's margins by percentages? but number two, the math, because you need just like when trump does in competitive states, this is not a competitive state presidentially, but in a competitive state. republicans need to run it up in the rural areas, not just with their percentages, but with math to offset the big urban areas that are going overwhelmingly. lee so far for andy beshear, but again, only 22% here. cam in the state attorney general, one of the questions is andy beshear is incredibly popular with the democratic base, a big african-american base in louisville and in the lexington and the frankfort area. can daniel cameron, the black attorney general, cut into that at all? he's been on the statewide ballot before, so it's an interesting question. when you have two people who have won statewide running against each other. but at the moment, the governor is more than meeting his metrics. we talked earlier about the cincinnati suburbs up here. this is more rural, more exurban. i mean, over here, campbell county, you come to kenton county here, covington, if you've ever flown into cincinnati, that's your airport is actually in kentucky. you drive across the bridge. andy beshear has talked a lot about that bridge, right? yes he worked with joe biden on that bridge, but he also worked with mitch mcconnell on that bridge. he has talked a lot about this bridge right here, saying i get things done. that's not that's not a democratic bridge. it's not a republican bridge. i get things done. so the question is, can he sell that brand in what is a tough climate? david chalian was just going through the poll about joe biden. if joe biden's numbers are that bad nationally, imagine what they are in the state of kentucky. right. and so, jake, part of the challenge is can the popular incumbent democrat governor sell his personal brand and overcome what in kentucky would fairly be the biden drag? we'll see. >> all right, john king, thanks so much. and we are just moment away from the end of voting in ohio. and we have a key race alert for you. it is too early to call on a constitutional right to abortion in the state of ohio. voters there going to the polls to decide whether or not to enshrine abortion rights in the ohio state constitution john. let us go to cnn's jeff zeleny right now. he's in miami. that is the site of tomorrow's republican presidential debate, the third. jeff, how closely are the republican candidates for following tonight's results in, especially on this contentious issue of abortion rights? yes well, jake, the republican candidates and in fact, leaders across the republican party are watching these results very carefully on abortion, particularly in virginia and ohio. >> even a supreme court race in pennsylvania and here is why they are mindful of the landmines that abortion created for the republican party in the 2022 midterm elections. for decades, of course, abortion was a motivating factor. more on the republican side. that changed dramatically after the supreme court decision in the dobbs case. so democrats, of course, are holding this out as one of their top options, immunities, they believe, to fire up their own voters. so the candidates are watching this very carefully and there are some differences between the republican candidates, as we will hear at the debate tomorrow night here in miami. nikki haley, for example, the former south carolina governor, the former un ambassador, has struck more of a middle ground that is really helped her earn some support in suburban areas with some suburban voters. even donald trump, the former president, has said privately to advisers that he believes abortion is a losing issue. so he does not stress that very much at all. of course, here in florida, the governor, ron desantis, he has signed a six week ban. but, jake, this is why it matters at a 30,000 foot view as republicans try and win control of the senate, hold control of the house and win back the white house, abortion could be front and center as well. it could also be on the ballot in places like arizona, here in florida, even in missouri. so the outcome of the abortion measures tonight certainly will play a huge role in our politics for the next year jake. all right. >> jeff zeleny in miami, florida, thank you so much. really appreciate it. you know, the idea that donald trump is trying to avoid this when with the exception of mitch mcconnell, there is no one person more responsible for the overturning of roe v wade more than donald trump is just remarkable. he is the one who appointed those three justices who were the key votes, who overturned roe v wade. >> he he created a list of judges based on he didn't create it. he didn't create it. he endorsed a list of judges based on largely their their view on this issue. he picked from that list, as he promised, was able to appoint three supreme court justices. but don't forget, donald trump, before he was running for president as a republican, was actually a pro-choice democrat on this issue. so i don't think that a lot of republicans, if you know his history, are totally surprised by that. he's also in some ways very political, astute about what works for him politically. he and he sees what we all saw in 2022, which is that this is not an issue that worked for republican gains. even republicans who were playing in these races who saw what was happening day to day, they thought that they were on good footing. and then election night came and it didn't turn out that way. so trump is seeing that and he's looking out for trump and a lot of these republicans on the right who supported him, the susan b anthony list and others are frankly furious with him about how he's positioned himself. but the reason he's not backing off is because he's looking forward to 2024 and he doesn't think. let me just interrupt for one second, because if anyone on home who caught me peering over there, we have we have some votes coming in. >> we have 2% of the vote in from ohio. and again, this is just a small fraction of the votes in. but but the constitutional right to abortion is taken an early lead. and. with 78.8, well, now it's 75.8% saying yes, 24.2% saying no. that's a 59,819 vote lead. again, that's just 3% of the vote in. we have a lot of votes to count out of ohio, but that is some raw numbers that we have. yeah. >> and in the other referenda that we've seen, it's been about 58, 59% in favor of abortion rights. and that's one of the things that's really interesting about ohio, though, is to see if it's going to be the same. and remember, there was an earlier attempt to raise the threshold to make it above 60% in order for this to go through, which failed. and that just gives you a sense of how the people in ohio who are against this, who are anti-abortion, understand even in a red state, which effectively ohio is, it's not totally it's pretty it's pretty red. sherrod brown doesn't want to hear that, but it's on the presidential level. it has been for several cycles. and so, as you said, now it's 3% and it's very, very early. but not only will the total be interesting, but the final percentage. i also think the way they're messaging it is so interesting to me. >> the amendment is about 200 words. it's very straightforward and it's really easy to read. it's not actually on the ballot. instead, it's a summary by the republican secretary of state who is pushing that, raising the threshold in august, which failed fabulously. and so we were talking to the ohio governor earlier about this and if they think that it's just the amendment itself, the constitutional right to an abortion in ohio's constitution is what voters should vote against, that language is not actually in the ballot. and instead, they've talked about late term abortions being allowed, even though, of course, the cdc says only fewer than 1% of people in the us get a late term abortion. they've talked about parental rights, even though the republican attorney general in the state has said there's no mention of parental rights in this amendment. so the messaging on this has been really confusing. and so i do think it'll be interesting to see what the takeaway is from voters and how close the margin is, regardless of which way they vote. >> i think the fundamental thing here, all of the language, the messaging is confusing. there's a lot of numbers thrown around 15 weeks, six weeks that the other thing, the fall of dobbs just created this fundamental difference in reality, where republicans are no longer galvanized by this issue the way they were because they won the fight. so they've kind of laid down their arms a little bit. the voters, i mean, the groups have not, but they have a much harder time galvanizing voters to get out on this, the same way democrats had trouble convincing people that, no, they really did actually have to work harder to protect roe versus wade. the democrats now have have all the cards on this. and fear is an incredibly motivating force in politics as much as we don't want it to be. and democrats are more afraid right now than republicans are. >> and look, i think there is there is a difference. i keep talking to republicans about their referendum on abortion. there's a difference for a lot of voters in what they personally believe and what they want to see in the law in their particular state. >> there was always a nudge, nudge, wink, wink that republicans would convey to voters like we're never going to really actually overturn roe v wade. people may not remember, but but before the 2004 election, laura bush, the first lady, even kind of suggested it. i think it was on the today show that maybe she was even kind of pro-choice. i mean, there was always just this suggestion that republicans weren't really ever going to do anything about it. and guess what? the anti-abortion forces in the republican party, they heard that and they said, no, we're serious about this. and that's that's when donald trump signed off on that list that you were just talking about. we're closely watching those early results from the abortion rights ballot measure in ohio. and the first results from that mississippi governor's race are just around the corner when polling places closed at the top of the hour. coming up next, aaron burnett will press senator tim scott about his uphill fight for the gop presidential nomination against donald trump, amid questions about whether a trump biden rematch is all but inevitable. stay with us. >> tomorrow, after the republican presidential debate, get critical context from the sharpest political team on television, anderson cooper and dana bash host the republican presidential debate post popost-debate e analysis live tomorrow at ten. >> this niniece niece, niece, yu are six. i'm not saying sixix. >> whahat do kidids like? help , etsy. ooh. > personalilized personalized gifts under $ $50. >> e etsy has it w with treadwd. >> y you get the s same expertrt advice y you'd get i inside a discouount tire ststore. now ifi could d only getet an expertrt p me with h these lighthts. > get your r best matchch ine minute or r less 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good thing you chose u.s. bank to manage and grow your money. with our 24/7 support at least you're not taking chances with your finances. yeah, i think i'm gonna need a chair. oh, ohhhh. veterans. go to dave. org i'm jim sciutto in the golan heights. and this is cnn. >> all right. we have a key race alert for you right now in the state of kentucky. all polls are closed. andy beshear, the incumbent democratic governor right now leading with 53.4% of the vote, 331,000 plus votes. daniel cameron, the republican attorney general, trailing right now, 46.7. you see these results are dynamic and moving as we speak. but right now, just in these past few minutes, we've gone up to 40% of the vote reporting there in the state of ohio. two crucial measures on the ballot, the one here, abortion. right now with just about 5% of the vote in. you can see 66.7% of voters in ohio are supporting that constitutional right for abortion. just a third of voters are voting no. very few votes in right now. but that is consistent with the exit polls, as we saw them on that issue earlier this evening. as we stand by for more votes and more information coming in here, i want to bring in the us senator and republican presidential candidate tim scott of south carolina, and he joins us all from miami tonight. senator i very much appreciate your time and i just want to start with some of the information that we're getting out of our latest poll here at cnn. look, you've repeatedly said, senator, that a main reason not to have donald trump as a republican nominee is that he isn't electable. well, two weeks ago, you said, quote, i don't think he can win in a general election. and the latest poll that we have here now, though, does show trump narrowly leading joe biden in a head to head matchup. the new york times poll, of course, over the weekend showed trump leading biden in five of the six most crucial battleground states. does all of this show to you that trump is, in fact, electable at this time? >> well, what it says in that same poll is that a generic republican, someone like myself, a unique, qualified optimist, republican, does even better than the former president. so what we know is if we want a red wave from the top of the ticket to the bottom of the ticket, we have to have a candidate who persuades independents to join us. and from a consistently conservative platform to change america into all that we can be. and that means we're focusing on restoring hope, creating opportunities, and protecting the america we all love. >> all right. i want to drill down on a couple of points here in this night, of course, before a presidential debate that you will be on the stage for. but first, one more point from our cnn poll that just came out that stood out. it does show that 23% of black voters choose trump. now, that is nearly double his 2020 levels in some exit polls. interestingly in our poll, if you drill down, senator and van jones was saying this stunned him. but if you drill down men of color, trump wins 49% to 46% in our latest poll. actually wins men of color and i hear you say, wow. i mean, how do you even respond to that? and what in your record makes you think you could do better than trump? >> well, i've already done better than trump in my own home state. but here's the fact. i was on the south side of chicago just a few weeks ago. i had an opportunity to go to an inner city church and preach the gospel. one of the things that we see with african american voters are that they are sick and tired of being told by the democrat party to sit down, shut up and vote blue. they want results. they want quality education for their kids. they want to make sure that they're entrepreneurs and jobs in the community on the south side of chicago, we saw an opportunity for artists and contractor to be trained. we saw the opportune to improve the quality of education . that message resonates what we saw in 2016 to 2020 was a 50% increase in black votes for republicans. i believe that any republican, any great opportunity tea party candidate will poll better and attract more minorities into our party because of the challenges that we see with joe biden and the dereliction of his duty and the optics positive message that is resonating within the black community, especially with black men. >> i want to ask you about iowa, because the governor there obviously has made a decision to endorse governor desantis. as you say, you're all in there. kim reynolds, of course, did endorse desantis and at a stop today, she said, i welcomed candidates. they had their chance, referring obviously, to you and your other rivals. a new des moines register poll has you right now in fourth place in iowa. do you still think you can win there? >> yes, absolutely, aaron. one of the things i've learned is that the more time i spend in iowa, the better we do. we continue to do town halls. we'll be back there on thursday. i'm excited to get back to the state. i do believe that the road to the white house runs right through the evangelical base of iowa voters who will be turning out in the caucus race. i've got a couple of months to make my case, and we're going to use those months to make my case and become our nominee. >> i want to ask you one more question here about about some developments on the israel front . and i know you've been very outspoken about that. the white house today did say that that that the president biden does not believe that israeli forces, forces should be reoccupying gaza after this year. and that, of course, came in response to prime minister netanyahu's comments in which he said specifically that israel will have overall security responsibility in gaza for the crucial word, senator, is an indoor, indefinite period after the war. so an indefinite period of security and occupation. do you support that or do you agree with the biden white house that that is not appropriate? it >> well, there's no question that what we should remember is why prime minister netanyahu has to talk about gaza in this fashion. what so ever. it's because hamas has created the greatest travesty of justice since the holocaust against the jewish people. there objective is to wipe jews off of the planet, giving prime minister netanyahu in the state of israel all the time they need to wipe hamas off the map is our only objective at this point. making sure that there is a shoulder to shoulder relationship, no daylight, so that prime minister netanyahu can continue his objective and to do it successfully. and the faster he accomplishes that objective, the more lives we actually will save. senator tim scott, thank you very much. >> i appreciate your time tonight. all of us do thank you, aaron. >> god bless. >> all right. and we are just minutes away from 8:00 eastern. that is when polling places are scheduled to close in the state of mississippi. and there we are awaiting the first results in a red state showdown between an incumbent republican governor and a person who happens to be a second cousin of elvis presley. you won't want to miss that. >> okakay, everyonone, our missn isis to providide completete bad nunutrition f for strengtgth and enenergy. >> and sure, with 27 vitamins and minerals, nutrients for immune health and ensure complete w with 30g o of protei. the medidicare advanantage and prprescriptionon drug planan, al enrollmement period isis now opf every yearar. >> i have e to listenn t to alle commercials. >> we're s sorry, karen, and we know it's annoying, but we want to make sure everyone on medicare knows it's time to check and see if ththey can e el inin a plan ththat will s save y or include additional benefits. >> i just want these commercials to stop. >> honestly, karen, we do too. but this is the only time of year when everyone on medicare cacan call anand see if theheree plplans withh addititional benes avaiailable in n their areaea. >> i a already havave a medicare advantage plan, 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(800)■a331-537378. >> aftfter last month's m massie sosolar flaree a added a 25th ho the day,y, businesseses a are wonderering, what t should w weo withth it? b bacon e eggs 25 se. >> you're e darn rightht. >> solar s stocks a are up 2 20h the adadditional h hour in the y ruruined with ththe extra hohoum ththinking companyny wide powew. >> letet's put itt t to a vote.s is g going to wrwreak havococ on overertime approrovals.. >> anyththing can chchange t thd of work from hrhr to payrololl,p designs foforward thininking solulutions to take o on the net ananything. > introducicing ned's plalaqe psororiasis. who arare you wear? he thihinks it's f flaky. . red patctches are alall p people. >> see otetezla iss the numbebee prprescribed pill to t treat ple psoriaiasis. >> i it can help p you get clclr skinin and reducuce itching g ad flakaking withh n no routine e d tetests r required. . doctors he been prescscribing it t for neaa decacade. otezla i is also apppd to treat psosoriatic artrthriti. don't use o otezla if y you're alallergic to o it. seriouous ac reactitions can happen. o otezly cause severe d diarrhea, n nausr vomiting. some p people takiking otezlala had depepression, suicl thoughtsts or weightht loss, , r rerespiratory y tract i infectid headache m may occur with clcler skinin. >> movovie night is a groroovy t . l live in the moment. ask your doctor about otezla. and we have a projection in kentucky wlky. >> cnn is projecting that the incumbent secretary of state, michael adams, will be reelected defeating a democrat. buddy wheatley. and cnn is projecting that in the attorney generalal race, russell coleman, the republican, will defeat democrat pamela stevenson. that is an open seat, the attorney general, because the incumbent attorney general is running for governor. let us all check also check out, of course, what is going on in the key race alert we have here for t the governonor's race i ie state of kentucky, the commonwealth of kentucky. democratic incumbent governor andy beshear, with 50% of the vote in remains ahead, 39,520 votes ahead, with 52.7% of the vote against the republican attorney general, daniel cameron, who has 47.3% of the vote. that is 50% of the vote in. let us look at ohio right now, where there is a referendum on whether or not there should be a constitutional right to an abortion in the state constitution. with 13% of the vote in yes is ahead by more than 175,000 votes, 67.7% for yes no. has 32.3% of the vote. so far. yes. is in the lead. yes. would of course, enshrined abortion rights with within in the ohio constitution. but again, there is still 87% of the vote left to count. we're standing by for results from more key races across the country that could preview the political trends in 2024. in deep red mississippi, for example, the big question tonight, does conservative democrat brandon pressley, the second cousin of elvis presley, have a shot at defeating the republican incumbent governor, tate reeves? tate reeves, who has been caught up in a corruption scandal? presley has national party funding and name recognition because, of course, of his second cousin. a new rule require earring candidates in that state to get a majority of the vote means this governor's contest could go to a runoff for the first time ever. we are also watching a high profile mayor's race in the great city of philadelphia. the democrat, cheryl parker, is poised to become the city's first ever female mayor. the former city council member faces republican david o. history also could be made in houston, texas, prominent democratic congresswoman sheila jackson lee is aiming to be the first black woman elected mayor of houston. she and democratic state senator john whitmire are leading a crowded field in the nonpartisan mayoral contest there. a new wave of results are coming at the top of the hour. but until then, let's go back to john king. john, this kentucky race is fascinating because cnn was able to call the secretary of state and attorney general races for the republicans pretty quickly. we are not able to do that with the governor's race. you're not able to do that. >> but you just said two republicans have won statewide tonight. and yet the democratic governor is leading by five points with about a little more than half of the vote estimated counted. that tells you something, right there about the strength of the andy beshear brand and the strength of his campaign in a year. when you talked about the national poll and this is a very red state. if joe biden nationally, his numbers are as bad as they are nationally, you know how bad they are in kentucky. >> i can't even imagine. >> right. and so and so here's andy beshear right now doing more than he has to do. again, 53. we need to wait and we need to go through. but in the big democratic areas, he's running it up. he got 67% here four years ago. he's getting 69% at the moment. only a quarter of the vote. if he stays close to that, think about the math. it's the state's largest county. it's popped up, just popped up to 30. and he went up to 70% right there. and so you come back in here right now, you just look the map is filling in. joe biden won two counties in this state, two counties in the state. look at all those blue counties. andy beshear right now is filling in the map. a ways to go. but a democratic governor, a tough climate at the moment, looks like he's on a path to reelection. we'll count the rest. >> all right. let's go to diane gallagher now, who has some breaking news out of mississippi. and diane, what are you learning? >> yeah, jake, a chancery court judge just extended the voting hours here in hinds county. >> a very populous area in mississippi by one hour, meaning that polls will instead close at 9 p.m. eastern, 8 p.m. central time. the judge in his order said that a number of precincts in hinds county ran out of ballots during election day and are continuing to run out of ballots. and others may run out going forward. i'm reading from this order that just came down, noting that it takes time to deliver more ballots to the precincts. and look, jake, you can see, i mean, we have plenty of people who are waiting in line here. they still have additional time to get out and vote and this is something that i was just speaking with a democrat party official here in hinds county who told me they were very encouraged by turnout here. this is something that the presley campaign was looking at as well. look, the tate reeves campaign, the incumbent governor, has said that they feel that they have run a race that is heavy on his accomplishments, as well as working to tie presley to national democrats. but, look, they are encouraged. the democrats here in mississippi, by the turnout they are seeing so far. the precinct captain that we just spoke with at this location says she is seeing close to double what she saw in the past elections at this particular location. they're looking at high turnout. and now here in hinds county, an additional hour to get the vote out because of those ballots running out. the secretary of state did issue a statement noting that his office is not responsible for ballots. that is the county offices, but that they are in constant communication with local officials and relaying those complaints from the election protection line to them, noting that normally they have of mississippi law charges counties to present just 60% of the active voter count and they will continue trying to get those ballots as these precincts run out here in hinds county, jake. >> fascinating. diane gallagher, thank you so much. nothing, nothing can get out the vote more than the idea of possibility. >> i think, look, you have a lot of attention because it's elvis presley, second cousin. but here's a democrat conservative democrat running in a very republican state, 20 plus years since a republican governor talking about health care, talking about taking the medicare medicaid money from washington to give health care to working people, health care, we know has in recent elections been a huge turnout. now we're talking about abortion a lot. but before the dobbs decision, it was health care. there was helping democrats turn out votes. does it work in a place like this? we shall see. but i just want to show you where she is. she's jackson here. this is hinds county. it is by far the number one. it's the largest, most populous county of the state. it is about 8% of the population. and it is if you go back in history to the presidential race. joe biden did not do well in the state of mississippi, but he did in hinds county. so the fact that they just have voters in line, if you're the democratic candidate in a democratic county, that you have voters in line that the court said give them an extra hour, let's let people vote, that would encourage you. i want to come out to the main map because, look, this is not a kind state has not been a kind state to democrats, especially at the presidential level, but even at the statewide level in a very long time. so know democrat

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