will hope you join me for my new show state of the race, it will be on cnn's international channel. it is at 11:00 a.m. on the east coast, 4:00 p.m. in london. and today i'm going to talk to u.s. senator joe manchin about the 2024 race for president and much, much more. so i hope that you will join us there. and thank you for joining us here. i'm kasie hunt. "cnn this morning" starts right now. ♪ morning. top of the hour, 6:00 a.m. so glad you're with us. a lot of news to get to. let's start with the five things to know. debate night in america, meaning it will be a late night for all of us, but the former president won't be on the debate stage instead giving a primetime speech at a nonunion auto parts manufacturer in grdetroit. this after a new york judge ruled that trump and his adult sons committed fraud. and breaking overnight, more than a dozen people under arrest in philadelphia after a big group of looters ransacked an apple store, lululemon and foot locker. and the senate moving forward with a plan but no guarantee that it will pass the house. >> and writers strike has ended. writers can start working again today. and "cnn this morning" starts right now. here is where we begin happening today, former president trump goes to michigan, he will not debate his republican rivals in california. he will be looking to up stage them with his own primetime speech. he will speak at a plant outside of detroit. it is nonunion which is interesting. there will be an audience of around 500 former or current union members. here is what uaw president shawn fain told wolf blitzer last night. >> i find the pathetic irony that the former president is going to hold a rally for union members at a nonunion business and you know, all you have to do is look at his track record. i see no point in meeting with him because i don't think the man has any bit of care about what our workers stand for, what the working class stands for. he serves a billionaire class and that is what is wrong with this country. >> quite a contrast. fain was with biden yesterday as biden became the first sitting president to join a picket line. biden seems to back up the call for significant pay raises from the big three automakers. kristen holmes is live for us in michigan with more. this has been built up by the trump team that biden team followed up after the announcement was made. what do we expect to see today from the former president? >> reporter: i'll tell you that the trump team was not protecting as warm a welcome from union leaders as you heard from shawn fain, but they are expected to be received here in mccomb county, he won it by a significant margin both in 2016 and 2020. aen this is the first clear signal that the trump campaign is looking beyond the primary at the general election particularly looking at the state of michigan giving the primetime address in the swing state to working class voters. and i'll remind you that these are the voters, this is a state, that helped carry him to the white house in 2016. and helped carry biden to the white house in 2020. and now you are starting to see trump trying to get back some of that working class vote he had in 2016. obviously not going to be as easy this time around particular lin you have the union leaders coming out slamming his administration's policies as pro business. but spethey do believe they can drive a wedge between the union leadership and rank and file members, which some will be at this speech today. now, trump is not the only one looking ahead towards the general election. biden is out with his first ad today hitting trump directly. and surprisingly it is not just airing nationally, but specifically on television here in michigan ahead of his visit. >> he says he stands with auto workers. but as president donald trump passed tax breaks for his rich friends while auto marks shuttered plants. and michigan lost manufacturing jobs. joe biden said he would stand up for workers and he is delivering. passing laws that are increasing wages, creating good paying jobs. manufacturing is coming back to michigan. >> reporter: i don't know if there is a more targeted ad than that. it is very clear the messaging the biden camp is sending. and one thing, you brought up this is a nonunion shop. one of the things that we'll hear from former president trump is this talk about electric vehicles. he is trying to sell this as a loss for auto workers saying it will take away jobs, it will take away manufacturing. and where we are now here at drake enterprise, we heard from the president of this company who is clearly on the same page saying in an interview that if electric vehicles were to take over, he would be out of business. >> that is interesting. thank you for bringing that up. we'll track it all day. and from the political to the personal. personal finance that is. new york judge has ruled had donald trump and his adult sons built their empire based on fraud saying they are lie only for inflating the value of trump assets for years. the judge cited multiple instances in which trump properties claim that they were worth far more than the assessed values sometimes to the tune of hundreds of millions before adding that the claims that none of it matters came from the fantasy world. and the judge even quoting from "duck soup." >> i saw you with my own eyes. >> who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes? >> the judge apparently went with his own eyes and canceled trump organization business certificates that allowed them to operate, and we'll get into why that could end trump's control over some of his key new york properties like trump tower in midtown manhattan. donald trump's attorney called the ruling a miscarriage of justice and said the family will appeal. this is a major win for new york's attorney general latitia james in this civil case against trump which alleges trump in-234r5i inflated his net worth. the case will still go to trial. it is unclear if the trial though will start on monday as previously planned. let's bring in errol lewis as well as sarah chrisoff. "duck soup" reference i didn't have on it on my bingo card in week. but what was striking, everybody was scrambling to figure out what does it mean from a practical perspective. what does it mean? >> yeah, so the court granted summary judgment on partial summary judgment for one of the attorney general's claims against the former president and his family. so on that claim, it is where they don't have to prove intent or materiality of the statement, are the documents falsely misleading and were they submitted in a pattern to achieve this result. and so we're now proceeding with the rest of the trial, the rest of the claims the new york attorney general has against trump and his folks and also the damages that wasn't decided by the judge in this decision. >> and what is ironic is the fact that the trump legal team at the outset of this when the case was brought had asked for summary judgment on their behalf. they had said the merits aren't there, judge, you should grant us summary judgment on all of this. don't even let this go to trial. and in fact the judge saw it not only the other way but granting at least that partial bit of it. so what goes to trial now, what will be decided in the courtroom? >> well, they have a number of different claims about different kinds of alleged fraud. and so the most important ones, the ones that have generated the headlines are now settled. that will still leave certain kinds of cases where there was a genuine dispute of fact about whether or not there was fraud involved in some valuations. and so there is some core of the case that still will make it to trial. and possibly very soon. but the judge though really was very, very emphatic about that they were raising claims that had already been rebuffed by that same court. >> didn't they fine the lawyers for that? >> they all got fined. $7500 each. i mean, it is absolutely scathing. sort of saying you cannot, you must not continue to raise these immaterial defenses when i've already told you that we're not going to hear those defenses. when it is already up on appeal. and so it already had been almost fully litigated.he highe the state. this was done and they still brought it back. and the judge was very pointed about it, it says something about trump's tactics in trying to just delay, just spin it out, bring up the same issues again and a again and again. judge really not having it. >> kaitlan collins had michael cohen on, former fixer, lawyer, hatchet man, however you want to term him, and put the legal stuff aside, we all view the former president in a political lens which is incredibly difficult to puncture his support and how he operates. but cohen said this, take a listen -- >> if you really want to get to donald the way do it is through his bank book. not by saying that he's a narcicisstic sociopath or look at it, he is not 6'3" and not 215 points. once you hit the bank book, that is what really gets to him. >> there is some evidence of that over the course of the last several years. do you think he has a point? >> absolutely. first of all, this is real money. a quarter of a billion dollars is a lot even for somebody who -- whatever his net worth is, that is a lot of money. the other part of it though is that when the case is resolved, he is going to be seen -- and this unlike some of the criminal cases that we've been talking about, we already have a partial answer on this. i don't think that the public is fully absorbing it. but when this case is all the way over, he will be a candidate for president found to have committed civil fraud. he and his businesses. that is not a comfortable place to be. and he has always said it doesn't matter, you know, i'm dealing with high flyers. this is how we play the game at this level. this judge again makes clear, like you can't say trump tower is 37,000 square feet if it is actually 10,000. that is not okay, that is fraud. >> and explain in the simple terms why it matters that he inflated according to this judge and according to the ag's argument the assets by so much? it gave him better deals, he got more favorable loans? >> yeah, there was a lot of benefits to him of inflating these assets both in tax benefits and benefits with regard to the loans that he attained. one of the a arguments that trump's team made is no one was hurt. i paid my loans off. the bank's actually made money. but the judge said that is not relevant, you can't commit fraud and say, well, no one was hurt so it is okay for me to do this. that was one of the sort of trump's arguments that the judge rejected outright. but that is really sort of the crux of those claims against him. >> one more quick one before we go. it is related to the former president and to his sons, ivanka trump also in the business for a period of time, but this same judge i think dismissed her role in this. why, what does that mean? >> there were statute of limitations issues with regard to the claims against ivanka trump. and so essentially it was too late to bring those claims. and the timing was off. i think that she wasn't involved in the business at certain times. and so they weren't allowed to bring the claims against her. >> okay. thanks, guys. so three days left to avoid a government shutdown. the senate has laid out a stopgap bill to fund the government through november. big questions though about whether it stand as chance in the house. and new overnight, more than a dozen arrests have been made in philadelphia after mass looting there. we'll bring you the latest on the investigation. madame speaker, forgive me, but what the hell is going on around here? >> that is massachusetts democratic congressman jim mcgovern speaking for all of us to some degree as we watch congress careen toward as a government shutdown. thousand ju now just three days to go. the senate has offered up a bill. but it is dead on arrival in the house and that is where speaker kevin mccarthy is still trying to wrangle his party. gop hardliners like matt gaetz are threatening to oust mccarthy because they would rather shut down the government than work with democrats. >> the one thing i agree with my democratic colleagues on is that for the last eight months, this house has been poorly led and we own that and we have to do something about it and you know what, my democratic colleagues will have an opportunity to do something about that too and we will see if they bail out our failed speaker. >> lauren fox is joining us now. i think that the thing striking to me is in a normal moment of the last decade of these fiscal wars, the off-ramp now exists, right? there is a bipartisan deal. it is backed by mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer. it is backed by the republican and democrat on the appropriations committee. and yet it is not the answer here? >> reporter: well, it may be the answer but it may not be the answer that is taken by house speaker kevin mccarthy. and we should note that the senate still has to get it out of their chamber. and that could be a heavy lift potentially because you have senators like rand paul threatening to slow walk this process and reiterating that last night because there is $6.2 billion in additional funding for ukraine. there is also $6 billion of disaster aid but that is something that some conservatives may really throw a fit about on the senate floor. and if they start to have this, you know, drag out, you potentially could have a situation where the senate can't pass their bill until the weekend either. so there is a huge question mark around how quickly the senate is going to be able to move despite the fact that you are right, yes, there is bipartisan support, they will eventually be able to get this out of the senate. but it could take some time. then of course the inevitable question looms which is what will house speaker kevin mccarthy do. he is hoping that as pressure builds throughout the week for his member, some of those i'm never going to vote for a cr members will start to see the light, start to see that republicans have to have a position, and take him up on his offer to bring a republican spending bill to the floor on friday that would in their case be an answer to the senate's bill. but again, that is a huge if because you still have more than four republican members who are making it clear that they are not a yes at this point on a short term spending bill. and they are saying that they will never be a yes on a short term spending bill. that is when mccarthy will have to make the decision will the senate bill be the bill he puts on the floor. and obviously he will probably have to make changes to it to try to show that he is putting up a fight. but again, phil, so many unanswered questions at this point. i know we're close to this saturday deadline. but there is just so much more that is going to play out over the next several days. >> just feels inevitable that shutdown is coming. the gequestion is how long. lauren fox, thank you. and large crowds of looters swarming and ransacking stores in downtown philadelphia. watch. this is the moment they smashed their way into an apple store. a crowd of about 100 juveniles moved through the city targeting retail stores that sold high end goods and liquor. >> there is possibly a caravan of a number of different vehicles going location to location. and so you have followers that people will see this and start to come out to it and think that they can have an opportunity to get something as well. >> danny freeman is joining us live in philadelphia. police vowing to address more suspects. good morning, what can you tell us? >> reporter: good morning. that's right, police are vowing to armor suspects. the acting commissioner calling last night's actions disgusting and making very clear that those who were looting last night were not protestors, they were opportunists. looters descend on to center city philadelphia last night hitting several stores in the area leaving a path of debris and destruction behind. according to police, the looting started at 7:58 p.m. at this foot locker, breaking glass and leaving sneakers strewn on the ground. more instances of looting happened in quick succession. first this lululemon store left ransacked, picked over merchandise scattered all over the floor. minutes later looters were seen barging into this apple store. and others broke into this liquor store. >> everybody in the city should be angry. everybody that goes to these businesses should be angry. >> reporter: upwards of nearly 100 people were involved in looting and at least 15 people were arrested. >> we made arrests and we'll continue to make arrests. >> reporter: the looting came on the heels of peaceful protests against the judge's decision to dismiss all charges against philadelphia police officer mark dial who shot and killed eddy irizarry during a brief traffic stop last month. police commissioner john stanford said he believes the looters were not moatstivated b the dial case. >> this was not a protest, this was a bunch of criminal opportunists take advantage of a situation. >> reporter: now, here on walnut street, cars are moving depend. we've seen runners, folks going to workout classes. things are looking more back to normal here even as stores like this apple store behind me continue to clean up. >> danny freeman, pretty extraordinary to see that play out. thank you for the reporting. we want to turn to breaking news just into cnn. north korea has decided to,pel . remember he crossed over in july. north korea claim a king confessed that he illegally intruded into the dprk as he harbored ill feelings of mistreatment within the army and disillusioned about the unequal u.s. society. north korea first acknowledged king's existence back in august. cnn cannot confirm whether these are king's own words as they were described by the north korean, it is unclear where and when and how king would be expelled. our reporters are on the story and we'll have more on this as we get more information over the course the next couple of hours. meantime to politics. second republican doughebate is tonight. we'll break down the strategies as they try to separate themselves from the pack. and from the elephant not in the room. plus what cassidy hutchinson former top aide to mark meadows says about her former boss now. . >> i see the picture and i feel sorry for him in some ways. because he had a lot of opportunities to do the right thing. and to come forward. he has a family. we're following this breaking news just into cnn. north korean state media has decided to, quote, expel private travis king. you will remember he crossed into the north from south korea during a tour of the area in july. it is unclear from the report where, when and how king would be expelled. joining us now from seoul, paula hancocks. there has been a lot of question about what would happen here. north korea not even acknowledging that king was there until about a month after he crossed over. what do we know at this moment? >> what we know is from state run media at this point, so obviously we don't have any confirmation from travis king himself, but they have said that they have carried out an investigation into what they call the illegal intrusion of their country. they claim traf industvis king d to having crossed in illegally and that he harbored ill feeling against inhumane treatment and racial discrimination in the united states which is why he decided to run across the border within the dmz back in mid july. now of course we have no way of independently confirming these comments, this is what state run media is saying, but they say that he believed that it was an unequal u.s. society which is why he decided to cross into the country. now, what we know at this point, they have said that they have decided to expel him. we don't know exactly when that will be or where that will be. from past experience, and precedence, this they are generally expelled through china. so he could well be flown to beijing for example and then flown on from there. we simply don't have that information at this point. this is all that state run media is giving us. it does come on the eve of an important korean holiday, it is korean thanksgiving that starts in a day or two, a significant calendar time of the year. and what we know from just last month, all in fact when north korea finally admitted that travis king had crossed into the country illegally was that he had admitted that he had done this voluntarily. and that is what we heard from the south korean side as well. and eyewitnesses that were within this private tour group up at the dmz that say that he simply ran for it, ran across the border, tried to get into the building on the north korean side. the door was locked. so ran around to the back and was then bundled into a car with north korean guards. so what we know today is that he will be about spelled, what we're waiting to find out is exactly how, where and when. >> rare to see an expulsion like this? >> not really. this does than. and what we did hear back in august which some experts i spoke to pointed to is the fact that north korea said that he had mentioned that he wanted to either stay in north korea or be sent to a third country. now, the fact that they gave the option of this third country suggested that they didn't necessarily want to hold on to him. now, the overwhelming feeling is that they will have deprivebrie him fully. he is usa service member after all and could have useful information for them at least in their eyes. but yeah, that is the latest we know. >> okay. thank you for the reporting. now to politics here in the u.s. former trump white house aide cassidy hutchinson warning that donald trump won't have any guardrails she says if i wins a second term in office.wins a second term in office. as a top aide to mark meadow, she had a front row seat. >> and her new book paints a more chaotic picture of the end of the trump administration than briefly known. she sat down with jake tapper to talk about her new revelations, american democracy and the republican party. >> to me it is sad that we're in this place as a country, where we are looking at somebody who has executed this horrible assault on our democracy and we are continuing to give this person a platform. that is not what we should stand for as americans. and i think that donald trump is the most greatest threat that we will face to our democracy in our lifetime and potentially in american history especially in the trump administration and in 2020, every day was a hair on fire day. we were swimming to stay afloat but most of us were drowning. the counts donald trump is facing, these are counts of obstructing the constitution. to me that is disqualifying. donald trump should be disqualified for being the president of the united states. to me that is not a question. i see someone that didn't have to be in this position. you know, i -- i see that picture and i feel sorry for him in some ways. because he had a lot of opportunities to do the right thing. and to come forward. you know, he is a man that has a family. >> here with us now, sarah matthews, errol lewis is back with us, and also our political reporter. sarah, let's start with that last point. mark meadows is not an idiot. is he quite savvy as an operator in washington, d.c. and i understand what cassidy is saying about the family and of course you can feel for their personal situation. but do you think that he didn't know what was going on here? >> no. he knew exactly what was going on. and he has as much said it i feel like when he is talking about the georgia case. he said something to the extent of, well, he was scared that the president would yell at him. so he was carrying out the president's marching orders out of fear because he wanted to stay on donald trump's good side. and i do think that mark meadows knows better. he is politically savvy and he does know that the election was not stolen. he knew that because multiple people had told them that. there has never baenk een a sin thread of evidence produced. bill barr said there was no evidence. so he could have avoided this whole situation and it really does pain me to see that interview of cassidy because they were so close. and i witnessed had relationship firsthand at the white house. and so i know that it hurts her to see him in this situation as well. >> what is the impact of her writing this telling all these things to jake? que we heard-testimony and saw her depositions. >> and i think that she is sort of a beacon for the future of the republican party. this is what your future looks like. both her age, her voice -- >> can look like if you so choose as a party. >> look, they can turn their backs on the cassidy hutchinsons of the world. she said she remain as republican. but demographically, that is who the future belongs to. and it belongs to the young people who want to sort of give up their time and their careers and go into public service. and we want to find as many people like that as possible. and she is saying very clearly in a very poised manner that she has loyalty, she has value commitments that the republican party has turned its back on. if they are smart, whoever the future of the republican party will be, the future leaders, your honor can can -- their cur lead, they need to turn to people of her direction. >> and i think what is striking, and i think this goes to errol's point, you look at the people around the former president, like sarah, like cassidy, senior vi adviser, legal counsel, across the board people say the same thing cassidy is saying and yet the actual elected officials made a decision in the weeks after january 6 that we're going to stick with him. >> well, they reupped that decision when they had the hand raised. i don't have an answer for that other than the fact that they are reading their party and they might be reading their party in a different way that errol is reading. interesting to hear cassidy saying yes i still consider myself a republican. you and i know dozens of people like this, younger generation or enolder generation, the bpaul ryan type republicans, none seem confident of taking their party in a drift direction. not resignation, but close to it. and i don't think that cassidy hutchinson will be a question tonight at the debate. there are a lot of things to discuss. but i don't suspect that we'll really see any of those seven on the stage sort of throw donald trump and really aside from chris christie really have the conversation that i think a lot of us at this table want to have, which is when is the republican party going to have this fight. doesn't seem like it will be tonight. >> and will they have the fight. and let's turn to something that really matters. the supreme court wrist slapped the effort in alabama to essentially cut out what needed to be a second black majority voting district can matters a lot for the makeup of the next house. explain what the supreme court did and why it matters if. >> it is really important. 27% of alabama is black. they have one seat out of seven that is reliably electing african-americans to the congress. even this conservative supreme court has said you have gone too far, you can't do this. there is something left of the voting rights act of 1965 and you have to do it again. the state has defiantly, you know, they said okay, we'll redraw it and they regrew i-- redrew it and essentially handed in the same map. and so defiance is very unusual. they will continue the fight. but what it tells us is ten years after the supreme court struck down some of the provisions to prevent this kind of nonsense, you are playing whac-a-mole all over the country. they have emboldened a lot of the state legislatures to dilute the black voting strain. and with a congress so closely divided, all of this really matters. >> this will likely mean one more democratic seat in the house. >> yes. and then you have to move on to georgia and virginia and to all kinds of other places where there are these rules changes, lines drawn, voter i.d. laws and other kinds of voter dilution strategies that will be finding their way through the court. >> sarah, i want to ask you, on the debate, when you watch tonight, i'm probably guilty of saying that i don't know if it necessarily matters in the grand scheme of things given where trump stands, but what are you watching for and what do you think could break through? >> obviously trump isn't going to be there, so that does provide sqomeone on stage to hae a breakout moment. i think in the first debate i think nickki haley had the breakout moment and she gave the most substantive policy answers. ramaswamy also got a lot of headlines because people were going after him and i expect that to continue tonight. and he is an easy target because you can draw a clear contrast with him. people can say look how inexperienced he is, i have experience on x, y, z. but i think that in the first debate nikki haley shined and her polling numbers have gone up. we saw in a recent nbc poll in a head to head match-up between her an joe biden, she beats biden in a general election by five points. so i expect her to be a target tonight as well. but it will be hard because until the field narrows, i don't think that anyone can effectively challenge donald trump for the nomination. >> yeah, look at the delta. one thing about mark meadows to go back to that conversation, he didn't know what a white claw was? that is incredible. so here is a suggestion for the debate, that you just have everyone put white claws out there and see if they notice. >> new ice branding. >> look, the delta matters an polling matters here. and normally you don't look at polls this far out.anpolling ma. and normally you don't look at polls this far out. but whether trump is at 57 or 48, there is this gap that is impossible to close. and the lower tier candidates are all fighting neck and neck. we're talking about the difference between 7 or 9 points. tough to hang your campaign on that i moved from 7 to 9. >> i think you just brought hans here to side with you. >> building momentum in a bet that gets me a really expensive steak dinner. >> nice to have you. appreciate it. hollywood writers are returning to work. we'll bring you the latest on what it means to your winter binge watching. . and a powerful ceo with a stark warning on inflation and interest rates. neel kashkari is in studio with us. brand new this morning, it is official, hollywood writers are now allowed to return to work. the strike officially ended as of 3:00 a.m. eastern this morning after the board of the writers guild of america unanimously voted to give its members permission to go back to work. but union members could still refuse to ratify the tentative agreement when they vote next week. natasha chen is joining us live. and we're starting to get more insight into the deal itself. what is the latest state of play as writers can now go back to work? >> reporter: the writers i've spoken to are very excited about this. there is a general mood of optimism here. they feel like there is something in the deal for everyone. so let's walk through what is in it. basically we start with better pay. 5% more this year followed by 4% next year. 3.5% the year after that. better benefits including a slight increase in health fund contribution and writers on the same script no longer have to share the cap on the pension and health benefit contribution. this was a big sticking point. artificial intelligence, there is r. protections against the studio's use of that. studio can't use a a i to write or rewrite lit rather material. they have to disclose to a writer if they are handing them anything that has been done with ai. and a writer can choose to use ai with consent to the company but can't be forced to use it. another big sticking point, streaming bonuses and residuals. this will be based on the success of the content, how many people view it on streaming platforms. in some cases on the largest platforms with really big budget productions, this could mean an extra $9,000 bonus on a half hour episode up to more than $40,000 bonus on a huge feature movie. and here is a writer we spoke to the picket line yesterday talking just about this. >> streaming has just restructured our whole payment for our writing. and just needing some parameters around that, some rules around how we as writers are getting paid for our content, the things that we create in our heads and netflix puts on streaming, there is -- it is a new model. so we just need to make sure people are being fairly compensated for that. that is what is most important to me. >> reporter: she also talked about how not a whole lot can get restarted without the actors on production sets. so they need all of the industry needs for the actors to also get back to the table with studios, sag-aftra released a tweet yesterday saying at this time they have no confirmed dates scheduled to meet with the studios. but when they have that confirmed, they will inform you. they said unless you hear from them, it is hearsay. so a lot of people optimistic, but still hanging on for those actors to also negotiate with studios. >> natasha chen, thank you. so the war on inflation could get worse before it gets better. jamie dimon warning interest rates could go up, maybe way up, to cool inflation. if that happens, it will be painful. this is what he said in an interview, "i'm not sure if the world is prepared for 7%, i ask people in business are you prepared for something like 7%, worst case is 7% with stagflation." since early last year the fed has rapidly raised interest rates from near zero to just over 5%. last yweek fed officials releasd pro projections of maybe one more rate like this year. think about this, buying a home or car right now, much harder. according to mark zandi, when you mix hire borre higher borro high prices, the typical american husbanousehold would no use 42 weeks of income just to buy a new car up from 33 weeks a yearing a go. national association of realtors calculates typical american family cannot afford for buy a median priced home. joining us now, one of the 12 fed officials with a vote this year, president of the minneapolis fed, neel kashkari. good morning. >> good morning. >> i was struck seeing jamie dimon because he chooses words carefully. is 7% possible enough that americans should prepare for it? >> it is hard to prepare for it. i would say for everybody it is, for businesses and individuals. one of the big surprises for us over this year is how resilient the economy has been. as you said, we have raised interest rates a lot over the past couple years and yet the economy has continued to be quite strong and american households have continued to spend more than we expected. so that is good news that there is that resilience in the economy. but if our interest rate increases are not slowing the economy the way that we expect, then there is that risk that we might have to go higher. >> that much higher? that is 2% higher. >> it is hard to know. >> but that sounds like americans at home should prepare for it. skra jamie invoked warren buffett's famous saying when the tide goes out, that is when you know who has been swimming naked and he equates 2% more to the tide going out and if americans don't prepare, they are stuck. >> but it is tough. what do you say to a family how should you change your behavior if you think higher interest rates are coming. >> can you speak to that? >> don't take on more debt right now. that is a big thing. credit card interest rates have gone up quite a bit. if you have bigger balances, there will be more and more pain to service those debts. to the extent possible have longer term -- if you have loans, longer term home loans are better, less sensitive than shorter term. it is a tough thing to deal with. >> and we're not everyone factoring in yet the fact we have an auto shutdown, it looks like we could have a government shutdown, student loan repayments start october 1, and gas is really high. four things that aren't enfactored in yet. >> oil prices, people are feeling it at the pump because gas prices. and that affects families all across the country right away. so that is a real factor. the other ones are also real as well. when we've analyzed these in the past, i mean, i'm not hoping for a government shutdown, i want to see the government stay open, but historically they have been quite short so they have not seen a business effect in the macroeconomy. 15i78 same thing with student loans. it can be painful for an individual family. but if you look across the scale of the u.s. economy, doesn't seem like by itself it will have a big effect. but if all four happen at the same time, then all of a sudden that starts add gz up. >> and that is really likely that all four will happen at the same time. so you can translate what that means for folks? >> the auto strikes that have happened in the past typically have been short lived. if it goes on for a long period of time, that will have a much bigger imprint. same thing with the government shutdown. so at the fed we are to take all the scenarios and try to figure out what would we do if the various scenarios happen and we run different an nam cialyses t at it. >> and is it possible to achieve a soft landing, you said 60%, but you said inflation proves more entrenchd thaned than expe is it possible to say our target has to be 3%, not 2%? >> no. we're committed to 2% inflation. we can achieve 2%. we call these things shocks. if the down side scenarios hit the u.s. economy, we might then have to do less with our monetary policy to bring inflation back down to 2% because the government shutdown or the auto strike may slow the economy for us. not hoping for that but those are -- there is an interaction there. >> so it could have the effect that you guys need. okay. shutdowns are normally short, but the last one, 34 days, longest in history. it shaved off 2% for the u.s. economy for the first part of 2019. if it goes on for more than two weeks, you guys at the fed don't have some of the data you need. you don't have the government produced data on the labor market or the inflation. so how on earth do you decide what to do with interest rates if you literally don't have the data? >> we look at a wide range of data. we want all the data we can get. we count on the government data, but we also look at private sector data. so we'll be able to make our decisions. i am more worried about the individual families who won't get the checks, the social security checks, all the other things that americans count on. that is to me a much bigger factor of consequence of a government shutdown.neel kashka much. an consider warrant is out for the murder of a young tech ceo in baltimore. what police are saying about her alleged killer and why he remains so dangerous. also this breaking news just in, north korea says that it has decided to expel u.s. army private travis king who had crossed into the north from south korea in july. those breaking details ahead. manhunt is under way in baltimore for a convicted sex offender wanted on multiple charges including first-degree murder after a tech ceo found dead from blunt force trauma monday. police say they are looking for jason dean billingsley considered arms and dangerous. >> every single police officer in baltimore city and state of maryland and u.s. marshals are looking for you. we'll find you. >> omar jimenez is joining us. they have not said how they identified billingsley. >> yeah, right now they just say he is the one they need to get. they consider him extremely dangerous. he is expected of killing the baltimore tech ceo who was just named to the forbes 30 under 30 list for social impact in part for her company eco map. but he is suspected as we understand of killing her, she was initially reported missing monday morning and hours later found dead by police due to blunt force trauma. and this is something -- this is someone, billingsley, that has a history. he pleaded guilty of assaults back in 2009 and then first degree sex offense in 2015. was sentenced to 30 years in prison. but then released in october 2022. we're still confirming as to why. but it still seemed to catch some baltimore officials by surprise when it happened. and part of why police say that he is not only armed and dangerous, but has the capacity to act. take a listen. >> be aware of your surroundings at all time. this individual will kill and he will rape. he will do anything he can to cause harm. so please be aware of your surroundings. >> battle more ltimore police ha sp suspect in another case but haven't elaborated on why. billingsley knew her and this case has shacken the baltimore community. >> keep us posted as you learn more. "cnn this morning" continues right now. >> this is cnn breaking news. >> we begin with breaking news, just into cnn, north korean state run media reporting that it has decided to expel u.s. army private travis king after completing their investigation into his crossing into the north from south korea. that was during a tour of the joint security area in yul. north korea claims that king, quote, confessed that he i will lil w illegally intruded as he harbored ill feelings and disillusioned about th

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