that did not happen. the kremlin blaming bad weather for that. as putin was speaking in moscow, ukraine's president released his own victory day message. >> translator: very soon there will be two victory days in ukraine, and someone won't have any. we won then, and we will win now. happy victory over naziism day. u.s. diplomats return to kyiv for the first time since the war began. it's a big step towards officially reopening the embassy. let's go right to cnn's matthew chance live for us in moscow. mat matthew, what stood out to you about putin's speech this morning is this. >> -- this morning? >> look, first of all, the atmosphere, the spectacle of the display of russian military might was as we expected it to be, quite dramatic. we saw thousands of russian troops on the cobbles of red square chanting patriotic slogans, military bans playing patriotic kind of war songs. there was a march passed and a salute taken by by president putin as the crowd cheered and applauded and the annual display of russia, you know, impressive weaponry, you know, its tanks, its armored personnel carriers, and intercontinental ballistic missiles a reminder that russia is a very powerful nuclear power. and so that was all very impressive indeed, as we've seen ever year, but it didn't go quite according to plan. you know, there was meant to be 77 aircraft taking to the skies above red square in a fly past. that was cancelled, we're told, because of the weather conditions. it was too cloudy for them to engage in that safely. so that sort of, you know, kind of rained on the parade a little bit, excuse the expression. and of course, vladimir putin's speech, he talked about how he, you know, he talked about not just the commemoration of the soviet victory over nazi germany in 1945, which is what victory day is all about. he also tried repeatedly to make the connection between that battle, the fathers and grandfathers and great grandfathers of those attending this parade today fought against nazi germany and the battle being fought now in ukraine. he's trying to use that traumatic memory, which is very acute in russia, about the second world war, what russians call the great patriotic war, and trying to use that to mobilize support for the current conflict. that was evident throughout his speech. what we didn't hear was concrete commitment from vladimir putin about a formal declaration of war. it was anticipated that he could use this opportunity to make that declaration. at the moment, russia calls its conflict in ukraine a special military operation, and there was more an announcement of a more broad mobilization of russian forces, which would indicate they intend to double down on their conflict in ukraine, and put more forces to bear there to perhaps make more progress, and so it was in some ways, you know, a speech that f was not as much a fire brand speech as perhaps had been anticipated, john. >> the world was watching this, matthew, what should the world take from it? >> it's a good question, and it's difficult, of course, to answer because on the one hand, you have seen this, you know, remarkable display of spectacular display of russian military might. we have seen that played out on the battlefields in ukraine as well. but, i mean, the fact that vladimir putin did not take this opportunity to declare war and double down on his military adventure inside ukraine, perhaps that's an indication that the reality of the situation in ukraine, the fact that russia is unable to make the kind of progress that it hoped it would be able to make, maybe it's a sign of that, maybe that's something we should take away from it. but there was definitely no indication in this speech, in this parade that vladimir putin was at this stage prepared to back down on his ambition to achieve certain military goals in ukraine. >> certainly not. matthew chance, live for us in russia. thank you so much for that report. i want to bring in cnn national security analyst, and former deputy national intelligence officer for russia, eurasia to the national intelligence council. andrea kendall taylor, as well as secretary of state, and vice president of global policy and public affairs for the national peace corps association, joel reuben. i think what's note worthy about the speech is what he did not say, right? >> absolutely, far more notable for what it didn't say. no official declaration of war. no mass mobilization, which was maybe unsurprising given the significant political and economic costs it could have had, but also no sense of victory. no sense of progress. i think that's what i found most surprising is he didn't talk about mariupol or kherson or try to spin this as, you know, progress for russia in the east and the south. and then no nuclear saber rattling, and finally, there was no, as we heard matthew chance say, though, no sense of when this war would end. i didn't take from this speech someone who was ready to back down. in that sense we're looking at a situation that's going to grind on for a long time. >> what was the take away for you? >> this was a defensive speech, vladimir putin trying to justify again and again why he illegally invaded ukraine, and if anything, this is a victory day for ukraine. this is a strategic failure for russia right now. it's clear that russia is suffering economically at home. their predictions of 10 to 15% gdp loss over this coming year, which is cataclysmic. $120 billion in military aired coming in. nato is unified, potentially expanding. a summit in late june in madrid which is going to highlight the shared values that nato and the west and ukraine have. this is a major loss for vladimir putin on the world stake. this was a nothing burger. b basically his speech fell flat. >> is he worried about his position in russia? when i think about what every day russians are going through economically, the burden they're bearing where their sons are dying in this war, does he worry that that affects his security as a leader? >> i would imagine that he would have to worry, again, right, he has linked i think his fate to the war in ukraine. he has framed this as existential, not just for russia, but for himself and so any kind of sense of defeat, a clear humiliating defeat for putin would be extremely destabilizing. i think that's why we saw him in this speech. it was my sense he was trying to tamp down expectations. he wasn't calling on russians to make great sacrifices like they did in world war ii. it was very kind of muted and in that sense, i think that the expectation shaping was key. >> you know what we can glean from that as well, he may not have the political space inside russia to do more. there may not be enough band width quite frankly for vladimir putin to pull more assets into the fight, to draft russians, to tell the oligarchs to continue to hold tight. he may be really running out of rope. we don't know exactly. c kremlinology is opaque. >> if he's running out of road. the conventional wisdom has been, yes, ukraine is occasionally pushing back russian forces, david is besting goliath here or there. but russia is the meat grinder, and that is what is going ultimately very possibly going to prevail. but if he doesn't have that will inside, andrea, does that challenge that conventional wisdom? >> i think what it challenges is also a segment within the russian public who is calling for more outright victory in ukraine. this is a balancing act for him in the sense that there are a lot of people domestically who i think don't support the war. we see vocal calls for outright victory in ukraine. max mist goals, and he's going to have to balance those two things. the important thing to note out of these two speeches is just because he didn't mobilize forces today doesn't mean he won't at a later date. that's still something he can pull on if he feels he is faltering and needs that replenishment to sustain russia's efforts in ukraine. >> we shouldn't rule that out. don't rule it out. i won wonder looking agent the historical content of the day, when you look at the soviet sacrifice in world war ii, you're talking about so many millions of deaths and in a way, russia has this pride of that, the sacrifice that was made. they don't forget that. they take pride in the strength they exhibited and you know, that they pushed back the nazis, they take pride in that. i wonder if that transfers to what's going on in ukraine. does that pride, does that will still exist when it comes to what we're seeing in ukraine or is this a whole different ball of wax? >> the ukrainians also take pride in this. president zelenskyy who's jewish takes pride in the fact that the ukraine was part of the soviet union that defeated the nazis, and we in america take pride in this too. vladimir putin has been time and again banging on the idea that he's defeating nazis, and the foreign minister lavrov calling essentially zelenskyy an ally, a jewish leader, ally of the nazis, it didn't fly, it doesn't work, the russian people if mobilized by victory day, that's one thing because national pride but to see that translate to more and further aggressive actions, clearly vladimir putin had the ability to do that on victory day. >> interesting speech. expectations management. great to success this with you. i appreciate it, guys, thanks. away from the pageantry and rhetoric in red square, the russian military is inflicting more pain and suffering on the ukrainian people. at least 60 are feared dead after ukraine says russia bombed a school that was sheltering civilians. a survival tells cnn's sam kiley how he escaped from the rubble. >> i got slammed down by a slab, bent into a ball, another explosion, small rocks sprinkled darkness, then i looked and the dust settled and a ray of light appeared. sergey crawled out. then he dug me out. dug uncle tolia out. dug aunt ira out. we crawled all in a fog. >> and an incredible story of courage and survival. a 15-year-old ukrainian girl drives through battlefields to safety despite being injured and bleeding. cnn's isa soares joins us live from lviv. >> reporter: and this is yet again another example of what we have seen here of defiance, no matter the age and this story comes all the way from the east of ukraine, not far where the school shelter was reduced to rubble near luhansk, and it's incredible what we have been seeing from this young girl who has shown defiance and courage. have a listen. >> this is the face of bravery. meet 15-year-old anastasia, a courageous and defiant teenager recovering from her injuries in lviv. what about your legs, they ask her? they came under fire she replies. as her hometown was pommelled by russian artillery, she wanted to help two men get to the hospital. >> the help was urgently needed so as not to lose a lot of blood, she says, she picked up the car keys, and i had to get behind the wheel she says, they made their way across the bridge, desperate to get to a hospital. we had a bridge, and there was no way to get through, but i somehow made it, and further along there was the corpse of a woman, she says. worse was to come. a burst of machine gunfire raked the car. i was driving the car and then the russians fired on us, she says. when they started shooting, the car stopped, and then i started the car again, and drove on. even though she was injured and bleeding, time was running out. the car stalled because the battery was shot through by a bullet. by then, ukrainian soldiers were on hand to rescue anastasia and her passengers. now they're all recovering. thanks to the courage of a very young driver. >> and john, she has already gone through so much. she lost her mother when she was 8. it's her god parents now that look after her. it was her mother, importantly, who taught her how to drive. an incredible, courageous girl who put herself on the line to help those wounded people, those civilians. >> such an incredible story. courage under fire from a 15-year-old girl. thank you so much for sharing that with us. coming up, brand new reporting on the investigation into the january 6th insurrection. what the far right group the oath keepers are now telling congressional investigators. and get this, justice clarence thomas says he's against institutions being bullied into providing certain outcomes, and he worries that u.s. institutions are eroding. plus, what killed three americans at a popular sandals resort in the bahamas, the mysterious new details ahead. why is roger happy? 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(emu squawks) (the crowd gasps) no, kevin, no! not today. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ lemons. lemons. lemons. the world is so full of lemons. when you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels. so you can go and see all those lemons, for less. from prom dresses to workouts and new adventures you hope the more you give the less they'll miss. but even if your teen was vaccinated against meningitis in the past they may be missing vaccination for meningitis b. although uncommon, up to 1 in 5 survivors of meningitis will have long term consequences. now as you're thinking about all the vaccines your teen might need make sure you ask your doctor if your teen is missing meningitis b vaccination. a cnn exclusive this morning, members of the far right extremist group the oath keepers, sorry, pardon me, the oath keepers are sharing details of their communications with january 6th investigators. a lawyer working with the group revealed to cnn that she's met with the fbi several times already handing over their phones and digital files. cnn's kaitlan polance is joining us with this reporting. >> this is kelly surreal, and she's on what the justice department calls a planning call with the oath keepers in 2020. she says she has been helping investigators, she's not someone that's charged but clearly was among talking to people bike stewart rhodes, in the time and question that he's ultimately charged with this seditious conspiracy charge among lots of other people. it's not just her. that's the thing that we're finding. even rhodes at one point sat for an interview with investigators. we know that there are several cooperators already, that are lined up in this case. one of them is an informant we learned of just last week at the end of the week. someone who recorded that call, where surel was on this planning call, recorded that call, gave it to investigators. >> do we know, these oath keepers, sort of the top folks in the organization, do we know if they were talking to or coordinating with people close to trump? >> we don't really know about coordination at that point. that's still part of the investigation. up to this point, we know there was some level of communication where the oath keepers at least believed they were able to get in touch with trump through intermediaries. so also in court last week in this oath keeper seditious conspiracy case, this huge case on january 6th, one of those people did reveal that rhodes on speakerphone tried to get in touch with trump, called someone close to him, someone unnamed, don't know who it was, and said he wanted to talk to trump, he wanted trump to get the message he could ask the oath keepers to obstruct the transfer of power, and we also learned, i learned through sources in this reporting that the prosecutors in this case have gathered lots of signal messages from phones related to the oath keepers. one of them is a chat called vip chat, and it's a chat between leadership of the oath keepers and top people on the right who would be rally speakers or people who were prominent in the stop the steal movement, discussing security around the events of january 5th and 6th. >> it seems like the question here is were the oath keepers enlisted as sort of an ad hoc militia to help with the stop the steal movement if this election result were going to be paused in a way. >> well, it's quite clear from the case so far that the oath keepers believed that they were security for a lot of people, including prominent speakers on the right. at this time, that's not something that is charged as a crime, and, you know, we can't say that there is anyone that is an adviser close to trump who's charged in the insurrection itself. >> great reporting. thank you so much for that. and joining us now is cnn political analyst and author of chasing history, a kid in the newsroom, which is a great book. carl bernstein. always great to have you. >> good to be with you. >> what do you think about this new reporting? >> this new reporting is another step to building a case around the people around donald trump as well as donald trump himself. this has been a conspiracy at the top or near the top by lawyers, which is very unusual, and we have the evidence of what lawyers around donald trump did to encourage and foment this staged cue to keep the new president from being elected. did the lawyers engage with the oath keepers and others to obstruct the election of the president of the united states, to stage a coup. and also, my own sources are telling me that the committee is building and is well along with a methodical case about what trump did. there is no smoking gun yet. but their investigation is really moving into places and has very convincing evidence, a chain of timetable, et cetera, et cetera, communication between the white house and organizations like the oath keepers, they're making a lot more progress than has been publicly reported. >> carl, to that point about the possible indictment of a former president which would be unprecedented. the former attorney general, eric holder, during the obama administration seems to have changed his opinion on a possible indictment of the former president just yesterday. take a listen. >> i'm an institutionalist. my initial thought was not to indict the former president out of concern of how divisive it would be. given what we have learned, i think he probably has to be held accountable. >> what do you make of that? >> i think the former attorney general knows better that that's not going to happen because of justice department policy that's been in place since before richard nixon had to resign. the watergate grand jury with nixon did something very very interesting. they named nixon to be an unindicted coconspirator, and certainly something like this could happen particularly if either the jurors or prosecutors who are building the case want to make trump an unindicted coconspirator which would send a real signal to the country, to those who support donald trump, about his illegal activities if they exist such as the committee is building a case on. >> i also want to ask you about something that clarence thomas said, carl. he said that we can't be an institution that can be bullied into giving you just the outcome you want. the events from earlier this week are a symptom of that. he didn't speak specifically, he didn't say exactly what happened, he didn't call it the leaked draft decision but that is what he said. i wonder what you think about that? >> i think that clarence thomas talking about faith in institutions is a little misguided, given particularly the role of his wife in the stop the steal movement around the president of the united states, the wife of a supreme court justice doing what ginny thomas did is utterly unheard of in the history of the united states, so justice thomas talking about legitimacy of institutions, either the white house or the court itself and he should recuse himself, which he refuses to do from any case involving the president of the united states and the election. there is a real failure of institutions, especially on the supreme court by a rogue justice who would not say i'm going to step aside because -- and also, let's look at what ginny thomas did. let's look at what she was saying and we have text of what she was saying. it is crazy stuff. it is out there, but it is also encouraging the president of the united states, really, to stage a coup. so it's disingenuous to hear from the justice to say this kind of thing. >> well, carl, you know, i mean, those texts show evidence of blowing past anything resembling the separation of powers, but even in watergate, i mean, things turned ultimately when republicans stood up to richard nixon and said it's time for you to go. why do you think we are not seeing that similar break? why do you think we're not seeing principles at the end of the day trump partisanship this time around? >> one, the republican party has become almost a total instrument of donald trump, the party leaders and particularly leaders in the senate of the united states feel that they are beholden to donald trump, that he can get them out of office, if trump goes to his supporters and primaries, some of these incumbent senators out there, you know i did a report here on cnn about, oh, a year ago saying that 21 republican senators, and i named them disdained donald trump, and yet they voted in the impeachment and they haven't said anything public against donald trump yet. i think what we need to look at here is nixon was a criminal president, such as we never had in our history. but what donald trump is and what we are now getting real evidence for is the first seditious president in the history of the united states. think of what that means, a seditious president who staged a coup to stay in office and not allow the transfer of power to the duly elected successor and so what the case is that's being built right now is that donald trump on january 6th, particularly, there's only one time under the law that the president of the united states can be elected. that is a proceeding that begins on 1:00 p.m. on january 6th. and what happened on 1:00 p.m. on january 6th, an effort by the oath keepers and others who presumably have knowledge, such as kaitlan was talking about today to stop the counting at 1:00 p.m. on january 6th. that's what the conspiracy is about. there hasn't been much clarity yet on that. there's going to be more, but 1:00 p.m., january 6th, and when i said the committee is building a tictoc, a minute-by-minute record of what happened, that's where this investigation is going. >> carl bernstein, thank you very much, as always, for your reporting and insights, be well. new reporting this morning revealing just how much of a strain gun violence put on an already overwhelmed hospitals early in the pandemic. >> and u2 putting on a surprise show in ukraine. 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>> john, this is so unfortunate. so many lives have been taken by gun violence, and i think just now we're beginning to get a real picture of how much worse it got during the pandemic. take a look at these numbers. now, this is from a study that was recently published in the medical journal jama. they were looking at march 2020 through february 2021, some of the worst parts of the pandemic, and they said there were more than 62,000 firearm related incidents during that time. 62,000. that means 10,000 kexcess non-fatal injuries in the united states, and 4,400 excess deaths, 15% higher than we would have expected based on previous trends. in other words, if it had stayed the way it was pre-pandemic, we would have expected it to have been much lower than this. let's take a look at an analysis that cnn has done based on government data. what we found is that in 29 states, if you look at april to d december, sort of the pandemic time to the non-pandemic time before then, overall, er visits went down 26% pre-pandemic versus during the pandemic. they went down because fewer people were in cars, having car accidents, et cetera. but overall, er visits for firearm injuries went up 34%. in other words, just at the time when er visits were going down for other things, they were going way up for firearm visits. john? >> 34% spike in er visits because of firearms. elizabeth, thank you very much for sharing that insight to us. gosh. >> thanks. an american citizen who was ambushed and held at gunpoint for more than 300 hours is going to tell us about his time in russian captivity. he joins "new day" next. and several states laying out anti-abortion laws ahead of roe v. wade's anticipated reversal. we'll have the break down ahead. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized pn that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. the sleep numb 360 smart bed is on sale now. why choose proven quality sleep from sleep number? because the sleep number 360 smart bed is really smart. it senses your movement and automatically adjusts to help keep you both comfortable all night. it's also temperature balancing, so you stay cool. it's so smart it knows exactly how long, how well, and when you slept. sleep number takes care of the science, all you have to do is sleep. don't miss our weekend special. save $500 on the sleep number 360 c4 smart bed, queen now only $1,299. lowest price ever! plus, no interest until january 2025. ends monday. my moderate to severe plaque psoriasis... the itching... the burning. the stinging. my skin was no longer mine. emerge tremfyant®. with tremfya®, most people saw 90% clearer skin at 16 weeks. the majority of people saw 90% clearer skin even at 5 years. tremfya® is the first medication of its kind also approved for adults with active psoriatic arthritis... and it's 6 doses a year after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge tremfyant®. with tremfya®... ask your doctor about tremfya® today. my asthma felt anything but normal. ♪ ♪ it was time for a nunormal with nucala. nucala reduces asthma attacks it's a once-monthly add-on treatment for severe eosinophilic asthma. not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur. get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. infections that can cause shingles have occured. don't stop steroids unless told by your doctor. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. may cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. ask your asthma specialist about a nunormal with nucala. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness check out angi.com today. angi... and done. what's it like having xfinity internet? 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unbelievable. >> how about that. look, bri, cards on the table, i am a huge u2 fan but seeing bono and the edge play in kyiv during wartime, just the comfort and courage that gives, just a great moment. >> yeah, it really is. and i don't know if i'm more surprised just to see him pop up there or if i'm more surprised that he can still hit those high notes. >> he can still do it on a good day. sounded better than the iconic concert in sarajevo which is a similar moment in some respects, but man, "with or without you" got to love it. >> really sends a message. on march 4th, just hours after filing an on the ground assessment of the first few weeks of the russian invasion of ukraine, breaking defense contributor reuben johnson disappeared. while driving to the train station, he says he was ambushed and his car riddled with bullets. miraculously he survived but he says he was robbed and captured by russian soldiers and detained at gunpoint for two full weeks. reuben johnson joins us now to tell us story. first, reuben, you must feel so lucky to be alive. tell us what happened when you were driving to the train station near kyiv? >> well, thank you for having me, first of all, and thank you for staying on this very important story. what was happening was we were driving to a train station to try to get an evacuation train that would have taken us to the west of ukraine and eventually to poland, and the road that we were told was open was blocked. when we tried to go around the roadblock, there was no one present but as soon as we tried to skirt the roadblock out of nowhere appeared russian soldiers and they just began shooting. they never asked us to stop. they never gave a warning. it was just, you know, shooting at anything that moves. >> well, specifically, what did you learn when you were in captivity? i mean, you were there for days upon days, and specifically, i'm wondering if the russian soldiers' conversations gave you a glimpse of what was happening with the invasion from their perspective? >> well, like everybody else, in russia, they were cut off from almost any news sources of any kind, so they wouldn't know -- they wouldn't know from the media what was happening, but there was plenty of news trickling in from elsewhere, and they first of all, were mystified why they were still in ukraine. they were told they would be in ukraine for four or five days, and the war would be over. here they are weeks later still there. and then next to us was a medical triage unit where you could hear casualties coming in, and lots of screaming, moaning soldiers in pain, and then occasionally even a soldier being wrapped up in a body bag. you could hear all of this. and this was all, well, i should say not great for morale, and caused russian soldiers at least some that i spoke to to wonder exactly how long this could last. >> that may be indefinitely. can you explain how and when you were released from captivity? >> well, we had been told a couple of times that, oh, we're organizing your release. we can't release you because there's shelling going on everywhere, and yount wouldn't live, you know, you wouldn't get 50 meters would being killed. suddenly one day we were released and driven through chernobyl, all the way out to the border near bella russia and told to start walking, belarus is that way, and that's all it was. it was simply no notification of where we were going. we weren't given our passports back until we were dumped by the side of the road. >> well, we're grateful that you got out with your life. that's more than many. but you've said that the u.s. weapons are making a big difference. you've seen evidence of that but the problem is that the supply is running low. tell us more about that insight. >> not just u.s. weapons but the weapons coming from everywhere, especially the endlaw, a weapon jointly developed by the uk and sweden. and simply what everyone is saying the same thing now that we've given away all that we can give away without depleting the stocks that we need to have for our own military, should our own military need to engage somewhere in the world so after two months of fighting in ukraine, there's no more surplus left, it leaves you with the impression that there's not enough equipment being produced on a regular basis to sustain anything like a long-term military operation. and the time lines to replace this stuff are just unbelievable. i'm told it will take two years to replace the javelins that were given to ukraine. that's a very very long time when you're in the middle of a war. >> well, it certainly is. but we are grateful that you are back to the united states in safety. reuben johnson, thanks for joining us on "new day." >> thank you. cnn is live in moscow on victory day in russia. the claims made by vladimir putin and zelenskyy's response. and after witnessing the horrors of world war ii, we meet two ukrainian veterans who fear a repeat in their lifetime. my patients, i often see them have teeth sensitivity as well as gum issues. does it worry me? 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"new day" continues right now. good morning to viewers here in the u.s. and around the world. it is monday, may 9th. i'm brianna keilar with john av avlon. the show of military might in moscow. vladimir putin defending his actions in ukraine at victory day ceremonies. the big plan to have 77 aircraft flying over red square to commemorate the 1945 victory over nazi germany didn't happen. the kremlin blamed bad weather. let's go to matthew chance. what stood out to you about putin's speech this morning? >> reporter: well, i mean, look, the atmosphere in red square was absolutely incredible. a really military spectacular, the kind we expect from moscow. 1 is,000 troops, all marching in step with each other and singing and chanting. sort of pat tree on theic slowing bes. the display of military hardware as well, including rocket launchers and tanks and intercontinental ballistic missiles. truly incredible to watch. i was right there in the middle of the crowds. in the stands, right in the middle of red square watching this parade take place across the cobbles of red square in the center of the russian capital, listening to what vladimir putin had to say. we were all expecting him to make some kind of an important announcement about the military operation, as russia calls it, the special military operation, inside ukraine. but that did not happen. he praised, of course, the soldiers and the veterans who had fought in the second world war and defeated nazi germany. he attempted to draw parallels between the battle to defeat the nazis and the fight he's underly under way in ukraine. he's made that claim in the past. it's rejected by ukraine. and the allies, of course, the united states. he did not take the opportunity to make a formal declaration of war on ukraine. he did not announce a full