europe, of course. where the angela merkel chancellorship may diminish the standing even further. all of that with our all-star panel richard haass, ian bremer and anne-marie slaughter. also, where in the world is sahel? the region that divides the savanna grasses north to the south. you will be hearing all about it. it's the new hot spot of jihadi terror. we'll tell you all you need to know. also, this is going to serve as a wake-up call. >> sanjay gupta on what he and we all learned from the long and difficult fight against covid-19. first, here's "my take." the troubles of a company that nobody had ever heard of now have people worried about another global economic crisis. evergrande is a property developer in china with the dubious distinction of being the world's most indebted real estate company, with outstanding loans of more than $300 billion. for the moment, at least, it appears unlikely they will upend the global economy, but it speaks of the fragility in china's economy. china's private debt, by households and corporations, now represent 200% of the country's gross domestic product, by far and away the highest in the world for any developing nation. china's fundamental growth trajectory is slowing. its export driven model have become much harder to sustain as wages have risen, making it competitive with other countries. meanwhile, domestic spending isn't growing fast enough to replace the export boom. plus, the assault on the technology sector will probably slow down the previously seen explosive growth in that area. and overshadowing all of this is demographics. china is growing old and its citizens having fewer children. fertility dropped by a stunning 20% last year, despite the government's efforts to reverse the one-child policy and encourage people to have more children. looking around, one sees problems in most major economies. german chancellor angela perkal is about to leave office after 16 years of steady, wise leadership. in an age of populist drama, anger, she's been an oasis of calm. but she let many of germany's economic problems fester. the country has been starved of public investment, leading to a decay of its infrastructure in almost every year, germany's energy policies are a strange patchwork of new and old, banning nuclear and thus getting 44% of its electricity from fossil fuels, one of the highest in the european union. and more broadly, germany remains a laggard in the digital age. its manufacturing economy dates from the industrial revolution, cars, chemicals and machine tools. in the digital realm, germany boasts only one large company, sap, that is almost 50 years old. and like china, the demographics are grim. in 2020 for the first time in a decade, its population actually shrank. these are not isolated examples. look at the world's other major companies, japan, britain, india, and you'll see similar structural weaknesses and fragilities. japan continues to grow at a snail's pace. a few decades ago indians often spoke of overtaking china. today china's economy is more than five times the size of india's. britain will spend the next few years paying the price for brexit as its current fuel crisis demonstrates. and then there is the usa, the unmistakable winner of the past decade has been what richard cher ma termed the comeback nation in an insightful foreign affairs essay. the u.s. recovered steadily from the 2008 crisis and never looked back, evening thing for the pandemic-reduced recession. today amidst talk of decline, most americans would be shocked to hear their country has about the same share of global gdp as it did 40 years ago, 25%. its companies dominate the world like never before. seven of the ten top companies of the world by market capitalization are american. the u.s. continues to lead in most of the industries of the future, from biotechnology to nanotechnology to artificial intelligence. the dollar is dominant as a global reserve currency like no other in history, being used in almost 90% of international transactions. and it has the healthiest demographics of any of the world's five biggest economies, thanks to immigration. at some gut level, americans seem to understand this. gallup asked people about their lives to determine what share of the population is, "thriving." that number hit 59% this summer, the highest in the survey. in january 2020 90% of americans said they were satisfied with their lives, another all-time high since the question was asked first in 1979. it has subsequently dropped, presumably because of the pandemic. but that sunny picture is not what it looks like in washington. america's weakness is its politics. despite our extraordinary structural advantages, political leaders in washington cannot pay the national credit card bills without high drama. they're struggling with infrastructure spending that has been urgently advocated for years, and that a hefty majority of the public supports. congress has not passed a regular budget in 25 years. hundreds of key posts in the administration lie vacant, with dozens held hostage by senators on totally unrelated issues. and one of our two major parties goaded on by its demagogic leader is busy seeking to disrupt the institutions, laws and norms that ensure free and fair elections in this country, setting things up for a massive political crisis in 2024. america has been dealt the world's best hand by far. as any poker player knows, however, if you play badly, you can still lose everything. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week, and let's get started. ♪ ♪ the french ambassador philip etienne who you saw on gps last week, announced his return to washington on twitter on thursday. he had been called back after a new security pact with the uk and australia. the anglo alliance to be a check of china's burgeoning power and effectiveness. now is the u.s. finally pivoting to asia? let me introduce today's all-star panel. richard haass is the president of the council on foreign relations, former director of policy planning at the state department. anne-marie slaughter held that same position and is the author of think tank america, author of "renewal, from crisis to transformation in our lives, work and politics." ian bremmer is president of the eurasia group, a geopolitical risk firm. anne-marie, let me start with you. you have a new book out about what is urgently needed, renewal, and we will ask everyone to buy it but i will ask about your expertise here. is the pivot to asia a good idea? >> fareed, the pivot to asia was misconceived in the start. it was conceived and executed in the obama administration and what was right was to move away from the middle east and to focus much more on east asia, also south asia. but it was conceived as a pivot from the atlantic to the pacific. primarily as a military and diplomatic pivot. it should have been a pivot to asia through europe. the europeans have much older and deeper ties in asia than the united states does. if you look at southeast asia, vietnam and laos and cambodia are french colonies. mali and burma french colonies, indonesia a dutch colony and now have many citizens of south asian decent. we should have started with europe working not only militarily and politically, but economically. of course, china is the eu's biggest trading partner. and even in military terms, the french have 1.6 million french citizens in their south pacific territories, and they have 8,000 troops stationed in the south pacific. they consider that an area of responsibility. so for president biden, who focuses on, you know, alliances of democracy, they really made a fundamental mistake by turning away from europe to china rather than through europe. >> ian bremmer, what about the economic element? this feels like a geopolitical pivot more than an economic pivot. >> that's right. that's the problem here, is that the united states had an opportunity to make this an economic pivot, and the trans-pacific partnership was the avenue to do that. obama wasn't able to get it done. trump left, and biden isn't aligned with it either because it's not popular in the united states. i agree with anne-marie, of course you want to do this through europe, but the reality is the europeans, with the sole exception of the french, see asia primarily, even overwhelmingly, through economic and a commercial lens. united states policies in asia are overwhelmingly through a broad national security lens and technology lens, american companies versus chinese companies. so they're not aligned. and the french are a competitor, the third largest exporter in the world. the united states number one. it's a serious challenge. we're not really aligned with the europeans on asia. and the interesting thing is the asians are really aligned with us. australia really wants that defense pact because they're angry about the trade war and military hostilities they have with china. india, which has always been neutral about this, really wanted into the quad because of the increase in military tensions changing the game from beijing. so as a consequence, i don't know how we get out of the fact the europeans are feeling really left out of our indo-pact strategy. >> i think the pivot makes some sense. it's widely about china, seen as the main competitor for the united states. ian is right. we haven't introduced the economic dimension. it makes no sense to pivot to asia without joining the trans-pacific partnership. unfortunately there's bipartisan opposition to doing just that. we have not introduced sufficient military forces into the region. if we're serious about military threats to say, taiwan, we have a long way to go to match our capabilities with our commitments. i don't see how we do this through europe, quite honestly. europe has virtually no meaningful military force to introduce in this part of the world, and europe largely sees asia and particularly china through the prism of economic and commercial ties. i think we're going to run into real problems trying to line the europeans up it work with us. losing my voice here fareed, sorry. >> no worries. anne-marie, what about richard point, particularly in light of merkel leaving after 16 years in germany. the europeans don't have the capacity to project any kind of military force without american help. and they don't seem that interested in having a kind of larger world role. they're largely internally eu focused. is it a fool's errand to try to get the europeans to play a larger, more active, strategic role? >> no. as i just said, the french after the united states have the largest naval experience in the south pacific. if we were going to make a deal with australia and britain, yes, i understand that we had better technology, but we should have included the french in thinking about the south pacific as a strategic arena and the british, particularly now that they're not in the eu, do have military capabilities and, again, deep ties. we included the british so why wouldn't we also include the french? the french are also pushing hard for stronger european defense and europe now realizes they have to do that. but the most important thing is both economically and in terms of technology, we are much stronger when we were working with europe rather than leaving them out. together we're over half the world's gdp. it's hard to do but, again, biden's the one talking about democracy versus autocracy. he should start with europe. >> we are going to talk when we get back about the place we are pivoting away from that has a tendency to drag the united states back in, like that line in "godfather 3." the middle east, will the middle east pull the u.s. back in when we come back? and along the ride, you'll have many questions. challenges. and a few surprises. but wherever you are on your journey. your dell technologies advisor is here for you - with the right tech 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[ yelling ] wayfair is my therapy. amen, kim! yup! i'm hiding from my kids, as we speak. this may look like a regular movie night. but if you're a kid with diabetes, it's more. it's the simple act of enjoying time with friends, knowing you understand your glucose levels. ♪ [♪] if you're only using facial moisturizer in the morning, did you know, the best time for skin renewal is at night? olay retinol24 renews millions of surface skin cells while you sleep. wake up to smoother, younger-looking skin with olay retinol24. and we are back with richard haass, anne-marie slaughter and ian bremmer. richard haass, you have a very interesting article in "foreign affairs" about the similarities between trump's america firstism and biden's middle east policy. i have written about the same thing. and i want to talk about afghanistan, if you consider that the greater middle east, not going into the iran deal, do you think there is kind of a similarity and strategy because what i wonder about is trump was doing this out of conviction. is biden doing this more out of political necessity? he feels like if he tries to go back into the iran deal, it will trigger a firestorm on the right. if he tries to return to obama's policies on cuba, for instance, he will anger senator menendez whom he needs on these domestic priorities. is that a comparison that's fair to make? >> i think as all inconsistent. the president is focused domestically. he's obviously thinking about his domestic collisions. the problem is in some areas the foreign policy is consistent with that. we talked about just getting into trade deals. there's not a lot of support, particularly among the progressives, for that. iran is a more complicated case. he wants to get back into agreement but it's not clear if the united states and iran can work out the terms. and if we get back in the agreement, the agreement doesn't cover all of the activity iran does in the middle east beyond its nuclear program, and even nuclear restraints are of a limited duration. so i don't think the administration has thought that through, fareed. even the pivot to asia, talking about -- what i was going to add before i lost my voice there, it's irrelevant to things like climate change. it's a geopolitical pivot at a time when global issues count the most, and in no way is it an excuse for mishandling the european dimension. europeans are more important to the middle east than they are to asia, but his handling of the so-called submarine deal with australia and france and everything else, getting out of afghanistan was positively trumpian, it was unilateral. so i don't really see a coherent foreign policy here. so much of it is being done through a domestic lens, and so far, at least, it's not working. >> ian bremmer, do you think joe biden would say, look, my big priority is domestic, and if i can get these two big bills passed, that will do more to renew american power in the world, that will do more to renew american credibility that the system works than any particular maneuver or consultation i made with allies? >> yes, i think he would say that, and i happen to agree with it. it doesn't mean we need to actively antagonize or be overly transactional or unilateral towards allies. i agree with richard on that. we made a bunch of mistakes. and they're self-owned mistakes like how automatic cuss was handled or executing leaving afghanistan. but the point is, america first, to the extent trump had a strategy, that was it. biden, to the except he has a foreign policy policy, it is a u.s. foreign policy for an american, in parens, and friends middle class. those votes speak to the same issue, which is even if they don't see the world the same way, they're facing the same fundamental constraints as home that an average american agrees, left or right, we don't want to be the world's policemen anymore. we really don't want to be the architect of global trade, and we're not sure we want to promote global values because we're not sure what those values are at home. i think trump leaned into it, biden is chafing a bit more against it, but the outcomes are more similar than one would think. >> ann marie, ian bremmer and richard haass talked about biden claims he forced into the transpacific partnership but he doesn't talk a lot about it anymore. is there a way to make the democratic party, particularly progressives, understand that really fundamentally trade has been very good for the united states? that many more jobs have been lost to technology than to china or to all of these things people talk about? you talk a little bit about this in the book. the real renewal of the united states is going to come from stuff we do here, not predatory or aggressive trade policy. >> i think that's right. and i think it's a long slog to convince the left of the democratic party to reengage with any kind of trade policy other than protectionism, but i do think biden is right to start at home. whatever he does, he's got to get these bills through and to prove that he's serious about taking care of people at home, about building a new domestic foundation at home. so to that extent, i do think ian is right, richard is right, since obama, there has been a desire across the political spectrum, not in the foreign policy elite but more broadly, to stop being the global policeman. however, where richard is wrong is biden wants to move from being global policeman to being global problem-solver, which trump certainly didn't want. if you look at biden's speech at the u.n. general assembly, almost all of it was focused on those global problems that richard is talking about, and talking about how not only to cooperate with china on things like climate change, but to mobilize lots of different configurations of democracies to tackle those problems. the last thing i will say is it's not fair to say that biden didn't consult with the europeans about afghanistan. he spent two months consulting but in the end, it was a fundamental disagreement about the policy and he decided to do what he thought was right. that was not -- that's very different from trump. that's saying yes, i care about your opinion but it's also saying in the end if i think this is right, i have to do it. >> i care about all of your opinions, but we are out of time. thank you for a terrific panel. next up a jihadi gold rush in the sahel. don't know where that is? 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>> as you mentioned, the counterterrorism campaign in the sahel have really been one of the overlooked fronts in the war on terror, but now with the war in afghanistan drawing down, it really is emerging to be one of the next crisis points in global efforts to counter terror. in terms of military presence, it's being led by french forces in mali, where they had french bases in the region even after these countries gained their independence. since 2013 france had an operation in mali and neighboring countries in the region to try to push back these terrorist groups. it's not really been a full-throated counterterror campaign like we saw in iraq and afghanistan, but to try to contain the spread of these extremist groups in the region who are -- now the groups are allied with al qaeda and the islamic state, to push that back, and as you mention there's an 18,000-strong international u.n. force. the u.s. is also involved there in providing intelligence support for the french forces as well as logistics. >> and into all of this now has stepped russia. explain the russian activity now in the sahel. >> so reuters reported last month the interim government in mali, bearing in mind two coups in the last year, but they were in talks about sending 1,000 wagner fighters to support them with security. wagner, we don't really have a name to accurately describe what it is. it's a combination of military companies, mercenaries, closely linked with the russian ministry of defense and russian security forces. the wagner group has been popping up across africa from sudan, libya, central african republic and now potentially mali. where ever they've gone, it's never been good news for the local populations. they have been accused of horrific atrocities against the local population. so as much as there's a deep security crisis in mali, nobody's really expecting, if these wagner forces do go in, that they're going to improve things any time soon. >> it seems to me wagner is the way the russians involved themselves in parts of ukraine, where they have plausible deniability it's official troops but still effectively, they are just that. why is russia sending all of these troops there? what the strategy behind it? >> you hit upon it, it's plausible deniability, so if things go wrong like they often have for the wagner group, the kremlin can wash their hands of it. but they're a very light and nimble force that they can send in. the kremlin is very opportunistic like they see in like in mali now, they send in these forces as a kind of wedge and from there expand therapy footprint. on traditional metrics of international affairs, russia is not a major player in africa, does not have major economic ties to the region, not a major aid player, not a lot of trade links. but what they've been able to do with these nimble and light forces, they've been able to magnify their presence by elite cooperation by making themselves indispensable to these non-democratic players and expanding russia's influence in these countries. it's nimble but it has proven to be very effective. >> and is it always in opposition to western strategy? at the end of the day, russia surely has an interest in not having terrorism just like the west. >> i don't think they necessarily go in to intentionally put a stick in the eye of the west, but i think they're there with their own goals. it's expanding russia's influence in the continent. it's projecting great power and looking to get access to africa's lucrative international resources. it's getting those countries in its pocket on votes and things like russia really cares about like syria and crimea. but mali, it will be interesting to see how it plays out because this is really the first time in africa we've seen a potential wagner, potential russian presence, really going toe to toe with the presence of western forces in the country. france has said a wagner presence there not compatible with its forces, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. >> thank you. that was a real fascinating report from a place we don't know enough about. >> thank you. next on "gps," dr. sanjay gupta on what we have learned from the covid-19 pandemic. i've always focused on my career. but when we found out our son had autism, his future became my focus. lavender baths always calmed him. so we turned bath time into a business. and building it with my son has been my dream job. at northwestern mutual, our version of financial planning helps you live your dreams today. find a northwestern mutual advisor at nm.com introducing the new citi custom cash℠ card, a different kind of card that rewards dan where his spending is trending. just ask stepping outside his comfort zone dan... dan: okay, i don't know where the hole for this is. or fourth time streaming that period drama dan... dan: you just made me miss her best line, dan: so now i'm going to have to start it again. even insisted he didn't need directions dan. dan: okay, i'm not lost. i'm exploring. dan: that said, do you know where i am? 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[laughs] a family room where you can let your hair down. and a backyard that is a tree-lined living room. but the thing they'll remember forever? watching the game together once again. ♪ the time for getting back together is now. ♪ find it on vrbo. it has been 638 days since the w.h.o. announced on social media it was investigating a cluster of illnesses in wuhan, china. since then more than 225 million cases of covid-19 have been reported globally, along with an astoundingly tragic death toll. almost 5 million of our fellow human's lives have been cut short by this virus. so what have we learned amidst all of this suffering and tragedy? here to tell us is cnn's chief medical correspondent, dr. sanjay gupta. sanjay acted as a doctor and journalist when reporting his brand-new book "world war c: lessons from the covid-19 pandemic and how to prepare for the next one." sanjay, always great to have you on. >> thank you for having me. >> the big question i think we started out trying to understand right at the start of the pandemic but we still, i think, don't have a great answer for, the united states was supposed to be on paper the best-prepared country in the world for pandemic. johns hopkins university, great medical school, puts out a list, and if you look at it on paper, the u.s. had these incredible assets, and yet, you point out, it's hard to contest the argument that the united states has probably handled it the worst of any major country. why? >> this is the most fascinating part of it. and there was a lot of solace in the initial days of the pandemic because of the reports you mentioned. who is the most prepared for a pandemic? the united states, as you point out, always ranked very high. i think there were several things that sort of happened. one is that this idea wealth buys health, that is part of the idea that made the u.s. so high on the list, they had plenty of resources. but it became increasingly clear that wealth buys health if you're leaning into the major public health measures that can control a pandemic. what ends up happening in a country so used to having resources, they say wait, look, we're going to wake for the knockout punch, home run hit, in this case the vaccine. we won't be bothered as much with things that don't present the disease that don't have our enormous wealth. the second thing is the risk factors for this disease ended up being likely the diseases of affluence, obesity, heart disease, diabetes. these are all diseases you will commonly see in wealthy countries and those were really associated with much, much worse outcomes. and there's one final point, and this one fascinated me, i spent a long time talking to the creators of an experiment called the moral machine experiment, and they tried to figure out what and who do we value in a culture and how does that change based on how wealthy the culture is? and you find, for example, in a lot of asian countries elderly people are well revered and respected even after retirement. not so much the case in places like the united states. you retire, you may be dispensed with from your personal life, even professional life. if this was a disease that primarily affected adolescents, for example, would our response have been different in some way? these are all lessons. the book was a lot about the science, but the human behavior that you're asking about really fascinated me for now, because we're still in it, but also for the future. what does it mean? >> what did you learn about china and covid? there was an interesting section. it seems you persuaded me pretty conclusively there was a cover-up, that the chinese government did know earlier than they let on that this was going to be bad, and they tried to prepare themselves before telling the world. but with regard to where this came from, you still seem to be kind of where the intelligence community is. it's not quite clear. >> if i were to answer this just as a scientist, i would say this was a natural origin. the vast majority of these have been natural origin, sars, mers. if it was clear to the government this did not originate in a lab, why not just open it up and let people do the forensics on the lab. they can say, how was this leaked from the lab? the virus wasn't even here. that's a good argument but you need to prove it. the fact there was a continuous cover-up i think made people suspicious. i have to tell you, fareed, i don't think it matters that much. lab leaks happen and happen here in the united states. smallpox leaked from a lab in the uk. narwa taught us a huge lesson. but this swapping from human animals happen all the time on a harmless basis. but now and then you get one that's a problem, we need to cut down on that as well. >> that's a tough one because, as you know, in poor countries, a lot of places there's no refrigeration. you go to africa and parts of india and they explain the wet markets are the only way you can get regular fresh food. >> that's right. and it's such a part of the culture as well, i know. because in sars we covered that and everyone said okay, we're not going to do wet markets anymore. that was 17 years ago and they're obviously still there. so is it an investment in refrigeration, things like that? is it investment in surveillance testing? people will put a price tag on it. they said for $10 billion a year, we can make america pandemic proof. we will not deal with the pandemic again. 30 bucks a citizen. that's not a lot of money considering we just spent $2 trillion on a covid relief bill. it's a real interesting thing. will we evaluate in prevention, invest in it? you take good care of your health. what inspires you to do that? can we get that same mentality in the country overall in terms of prevention. >> i take good care of my health because i listen to you and i'm inspired by you. sanjay, thank you for being on. >> what an honor, thank you. when the pandemic hit, italy had one of the worst performances in the world. it's now leading the world out of the pandemic. what changed? i'll tell you when we come back. it's your home. and there's no place like wayfair to make the bathroom your dream spa. now that's a spa day. make the new light, make the room. and even make the kitchen sink, the entertainment center. however you make it, make your next project like no other. now for "the last look." one of the questions we explore often on this show is how to handle populism. how can mainstream politicians governor amidst a tide of emotion and anger? we found an unlikely role model in an unexpected place. long before donald trump entered the white house, italy was led by the swaggering businessman silvio berlusconi. in 2018 a new generation of italian populace came to power in an unusual coalition that embraced policies from the left and the right. former trump adviser steve bannon hailed it as a model that can sweep the globe. in fact, this anti-eu populist coalition would last barely a year. under a new government, italy went on to bundle the pandemic with one of the worst death rates in europe. then in february 2021, somehow its leadership fell to mario draghi, a technocrat that famously steered the eu out of the financial crisis as head of the european central bank. now prime minster draghi is steering italy out of the coronavirus crisis. he excel brate the vaccine rollout and put children back in school. with astrazeneca falling behind on vaccine deliveries, he got the eu to play hardball and took the extraordinary step of blocking a vaccine shipment bound for australia. the move raised concerns about vaccine nationalism but it was done under eu rules and showed italians that their government and the eu was working for them. next draghi turned his attention to the economy. the previous government collapsed over how to spend italy's $250 billion share of eu recovery funds. draghi, a political independent, presented his own plan and won overwhelming approval in parliament. woven into the plan were a number of long overdo reforms to fix italy's economy. but draghi still has to wrangle a fractious legislature to carry them out. his first target to overhaul the country's judicial system, which is notoriously slow and puts a damper on activities. judicial reforms are sailing through parliament and draghi has already set his sights on other issues like tax evasion and market competition. contrast this to the great european hope emmanuel macron, entered office as a breath of fresh air, not tied to any establish party or tradition but clearly a liberal in the european sense, he quickly set out to stifle the economy, made it easier to fire workers so companies are less likely to hire them in the first place, slashed taxes on the wealthy for entrepreneurpship. but moves like that combined with his haughty air, tagged him to be president for the rich. he failed to build support for his policies and sparked a ferocious backlash, the yellow vest movement. macron was forced to scrap a gas tax hike and buy protesters off with tax cuts and subsidies. when covid hit macron put other goal on hold like pension reform. the man who vowed to rein in france's welfare state, embraced big spending to keep the economy afloat. he covered people's lost wages and handouts from college students to farmers. the economist observed, macrons has turned into something of as closet socialist. macron can flex his technocratic muscles from time to time and is effective. draghi made headlines in july by instituting vaccine passes for many leisure activities in france. and who should quickly follow but mario draghi. then draghi took one of the most aggressive steps that the world has seen, requiring vaccine passes for all workers. we will see if draghi can maintain his popularity, carry out his vision for italy and prevent populists from reclaiming power. if he can succeed where macron was thwarted he will be worthy of the nickname he earned during the financial crisis, super mario. >> thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week and i will see you next week. 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