what exactly do we know about tomorrow's budget? let's look at the bi icture tomorrow's budget? let's look at the big picture and _ tomorrow's budget? let's look at the big picture and then _ tomorrow's budget? let's look at the big picture and then the _ tomorrow's budget? let's look at the big picture and then the detail. - tomorrow's budget? let's look at the big picture and then the detail. the l big picture and then the detail. the economic reality, the economy is stagnant. we are in recession. albeit a shallow one. taxes are through the roof by any recent historic standard. and family finances feel squeezed. then there is the political reality, the conservatives have been in government for yonks and there has been more than the odd economic and political calamity and their ratings, their popularity, is really poon ratings, their popularity, is really poor. so, enter the chancellor. ratings, their popularity, is really poor. so, enterthe chancellor. no pressure then for him. trying to do something about both of those realities. we expect that he will take 2p off national insurance, matching what he did in the autumn statement of a couple of months ago. the argument that we will hear is that shows the intention, the instincts of the government to try and cut taxes. albeit they have been going up in the context of the pandemic and the war in ukraine. we expect there will be a freeze in fuel duty. but how will this be paid for? there will be some tax rises on tobacco and vaping and also possibly further squeezes in public spending into the future. so how will this wash up politically? for conservatives, they worry there isn't enough political bang for the billions of buck of a national insurance cut. because they say we did that last time and not a lot changed for our fortunes. but it is cheaper than cutting income tax. what we hear from cheaper than cutting income tax. what we hearfrom labour cheaper than cutting income tax. what we hear from labour is that guaranteed whatever happens tomorrow, they will say whatever these tax cuts up to, the they're not as big as the tax rises that have come in recent years and that is why people feel squeezed. thank ou. the chancellor is also expected to urge councils to reduce their spending on consultants and diversity schemes. councils are facing severe financial pressure with eight effectively declaring bankruptcy since 2018. one troubled council — in birmingham — will be voting on cuts this evening. alex forsyth is there.. alex forsyth is there. at this food bank they know all about need. run by a local mosque, they're packing food parcels ahead of ramadan. they're packing food parcels ahead of ramadan-— they're packing food parcels ahead of ramadan. ~ ;;:: ., :: , , of ramadan. we get 30 to 40 users every week- — of ramadan. we get 30 to 40 users every week. most are _ of ramadan. we get 30 to 40 users every week. most are referrals - every week. most are referrals from schools and social workers. they have to choose between heating and food. , , ., ., ., ., ., food. this is an area of real deprivation. _ food. this is an area of real deprivation. all _ food. this is an area of real deprivation. all things - food. this is an area of real deprivation. all things willl food. this is an area of real. deprivation. all things will be under strain as birmingham council cuts back. it under strain as birmingham council cuts back. , , ., ., cuts back. it is the youth that we are concerned _ cuts back. it is the youth that we are concerned about. _ cuts back. it is the youth that we are concerned about. this - cuts back. it is the youth that we are concerned about. this is - cuts back. it is the youth that we are concerned about. this is a i are concerned about. this is a generational thing. are concerned about. this is a generationalthing. if our are concerned about. this is a generational thing. if our youth arewt— generational thing. if our youth aren't getting what they need, what impact _ aren't getting what they need, what impact will it have on them when they apply— impact will it have on them when they apply forjobs. we need to have a priority— they apply forjobs. we need to have a priority system for these deprived areas _ a priority system for these deprived areas of— a priority system for these deprived areas of birmingham.— areas of birmingham. outside the council, there _ areas of birmingham. outside the council, there was _ areas of birmingham. outside the council, there was real _ areas of birmingham. outside the council, there was real anger- areas of birmingham. outside the council, there was real anger as l council, there was real anger as they met to vote on extensive cuts across the board and council tax going up more than 20% over two years. inside, there was a blame game. fingers pointed at the council over failings with equal pay and it systemles and at the government. address problems for which for which i apologise, but who will apologise for the national neglect? b, i apologise, but who will apologise for the national neglect? a handful of other councils _ for the national neglect? a handful of other councils have _ for the national neglect? a handful of other councils have found - of other councils have found themselves in the same situation as birmingham where they are effectively bankrupt. but many more warn funding isn't keeping up with the cost of services. councils in england were given extra funding this year. tomorrow the chancellor is expected to warn them against wasteful spending. is expected to warn them against wastefulspending. in is expected to warn them against wasteful spending. in selly oak, jennifer know what is happens when services are under pressure and she has a child with special educational needs, an area of particular worry for her. i needs, an area of particular worry for her. . , needs, an area of particular worry for her. ., , ., for her. i feel as though the council haven't _ for her. i feel as though the council haven't looked - for her. i feel as though the council haven't looked after| for her. i feel as though the - council haven't looked after their money. it is really important that the council really think about how it is going to affect people with disabilities. ifeel as it is going to affect people with disabilities. i feel as though we are the invisible community and we are the invisible community and we are last to be thought about. the concern is _ are last to be thought about. the concern is felt _ are last to be thought about. the concern is felt here but it is echoed across the board with the budget expected to ask councils to watch what they spend, rather than given rein to spend more. the economic picture — from local councils, to the squeeze from the cost of living crisis — will have been crucial for the chancellor when he decided what he can and can't offer in tomorrow's budget. so how is the economy actually faring? our economics editor faisal islam has been going through the numbers. the chancellor would have hoped to use his big red box moment tomorrow to declare a definitive economic turning point after years of crisis and shocks. certainly the path and forecast for inflation looks like that. look at this. inflation is falling back from its energy shock highs towards the bank of england target. on the other hand it's a little tricky to talk about a turning point when you see here, the economyjust fell into recession at the end of last year — there it is, the two negative bars — a shallow recession, but one nonetheless. and, as the chancellor told us recently, the real turning point would come when the bank of england cuts interest rates after 15 months of rises. the bank is holding off for now. but those are the numbers across the whole economy — does this feel like a turning point in people 5 homes? one new lens on all this is looking at failed direct debits — a measure of people running out of cash in their bank accounts, of cash in their bank accounts. injanuary overall one in 90 direct debits failed, highest since this data was collected four years ago. we can break this down further into the type of payment. let's take energy bills, about one in 65 energy direct debits failed injanuary, up rapidly from normal times. mortgage bills are here, failed direct debits also up especially so this january, at highest level. so not yet a turning point at home. so, no wonder the focus from the chancellor on trying to give some of the tax rises back, tax cuts. he is constrained however by this chart — the national debt. it's almost imperceptible but it is going down. meaning his room for manoeuvre was only £13bn a year and it remains about that. so to fund another £10 billion plus 2p national insurance cut, which is what is expected. which is what is expected, we expect a further squeeze on public spending at a time when councils and prisons and courts are looking stretched. and some extra tax on e—cigarettes, holidays homes and some flights. a big choice coming tomorrow at this budget, with a plan for lower taxes and further public spending squeezes ahead of a general election when ever that comes. thank you. the chancellor unveils his budget tomorrow lunchtime. clive will be covering it all for us here on the six and ten. tomorrow, i'll be here in the north—east of england, bringing you the very latest reaction and analysis on the chancellor's budget. that's on the bbc news at six. dojoin us. the mother of a 27—year—old woman whose murder near glasgow remained unsolved for almost 20 years has called for a public inquiry into how police investigated the death of her daughter emma caldwell. margaret caldwell told scotland first minister that anything less would be a betrayal. emma caldwell�*s body was found in woodland, close to glasgow, in 2005, but the man who killed her — iain packer, who went on to commit a string of other violent sexual offences — was onlyjailed for life last week. our scotland correspondent steven godden reports. for almost two decades, margaret caldwell has sought answers for her daughter. today she met scotland's first minister to ask face to face for a public inquiry for emma and the other women who suffered at the hands of her killer. emma had a voice. and these other women, perhaps there is no one. emma caldwell was working as a prostitute in 2005 when she was strangled and dumped in remote woodland. how could anyone do this? by 2007, police knew iain parker was sexually violent and had previously taken emma to the spot her body was found, but senior officers disregarded that evidence, wrongly pursuing four turkish suspects. parker continued to attack women. it was years before he was finally confronted. did you kill emma? no, i never. last week, packer was jailed for life for murdering emma caldwell and attacking 21 other women. both institutions of the crown office and the police must answer as to why one of the worst sex offenders in the united kingdom was gifted his freedom for some 17 years. how many other women in that time were disbelieved, humiliated, challenged when seeking justice? the family's campaign for a public inquiry will ratchet up this week. tomorrow, they'll meet scotland's chief constable and on thursday, the lord advocate, the most senior law officer in the country. thank you everyone. having heard police scotland apologised for failings in the original investigation, margaret caldwell believes anything less than a public inquiry would be a betrayal of emma. she's been promised a quick decision. stephen gordon, bbc news, edinburgh. unions representing consultants in england have agreed a pay deal with the government. the british medical association and the hospital consultants and specialists association will put the offer to members. if accepted, it would see hospital consultants receive a pay rise of between 6 and 19.6% depending on experience. young swimmers, parents and volunteers are among those who've spoken of a toxic environment taking hold in some swimming clubs in england. a review says bullying and dangerous training practices have existed in some clubs for years. many feared being "victimised and ostracised" with extreme competitiveness leading to a culture of fear. our sports editor dan roan reports from criticism of a toxic environment and a culture of fear in some swimming clubs, to warnings over the demands and pressure of a performance first system. just some of the findings in a damn report into aquatic sports. the review claims bullying has gone on unchecked for years. a former olympic medallist is one of several swimmers whose allegation led to the inquiry being commissioned. ianthem inquiry being commissioned. when ou're inquiry being commissioned. when you're growing _ inquiry being commissioned. when you're growing no. _ inquiry being commissioned. when you're growing up, yes _ inquiry being commissioned. when you're growing up, yes i _ inquiry being commissioned. when you're growing up, yes i went- inquiry being commissioned. barren you're growing up, yes i went on inquiry being commissioned. brim you're growing up, yes i went on to be an olympic swimmer, but at 13 and 14 i was be an olympic swimmer, but at 13 and 141wasjust be an olympic swimmer, but at 13 and 14 i was just a child enjoying swimming. to have such a disproportionate amount of attention drawn to what i looked like and my body shape was kift. difficult. the re ort body shape was kift. difficult. the report also _ body shape was kift. difficult. the report also said there was a need to tackle racism within swimming, said allegations of bullying were often swept under the carpet. the chairman said: the report says that the issues it has highlighted pose a major threat to the future of the sport. and it makes 21 recommendations for change, focussing on safeguarding, welfare and culture. swim england are urged to do more to make the sport more inclusive. this is the latest in a spate of scandals to hit uk sport w british gymnastics dealing with a fall out from a review into abuse in the sport. it fall out from a review into abuse in the sort. , ., fall out from a review into abuse in the sort. , . ., ., the sport. it is a reminder to all of us in sport — the sport. it is a reminder to all of us in sport that _ the sport. it is a reminder to all of us in sport that welfare - the sport. it is a reminder to all of us in sport that welfare has l the sport. it is a reminder to all| of us in sport that welfare has to remain top priority. i think it is also a useful reminder that athlete welfare is not an issue which is just a matter for high welfare is not an issue which is just a matterfor high performance sport. when i speak to leaders of british sports, welfare, safeguarding, integrity is top of their priority list. the safeguarding, integrity is top of their priority list.— their priority list. the research found many — their priority list. the research found many coaches _ their priority list. the research found many coaches feared . their priority list. the research i found many coaches feared unfair allegations being made against them and struggled to apply the right amount of pressure to athletes. and there is now renewed scrutiny on whether winning may have come at the expense of welfare. the time is 6:15pm. our top story this evening. as the chancellor finalises tomorrow's budget, a cut to national insurance is among expected announcements. and coming up... the once—dripping—wet colin firth shirt from pride & prejudice goes on auction. coming up on bbc news. lie in his head coach serena has set her sights on the 2003 five qualifying group it's tough but exciting. defending champions england have been drawn with france, sweden and the republic of ireland. millions of voters across the united states are heading to the polls in the contest to choose the candidates for november's presidential election, in what's known as super tuesday. 15 states and one us territory are taking part. the ones in purple are holding republican and democrat primaries. red is republican only and blue is democrat only. and it does look like president biden, for the democrats and donald trump, for the republicans, are heading towards a re—run of the 2020 presidential election come november. our north america editor sarah smith joins us from washington. iam in iamina i am in a polling station where they are voting on democratic and republican primaries. donald trump already today has said he expects to win all 15 states where republicans are voting and on this occasion, that's probably not an idle boast and is correct. there are even signs his sole remaining rival, nikki haley, might be preparing to pull out of the race, and if she does that, it leaves donald trump is the official republican nominee and that could happen at some point later this week, setting up that rematch between him and joe biden, the same candidates that ran in 2020. despite the fact that polling suggests more than 70% of american voters like they would much prefer to see fresh, new faces, different candidates, and evenif new faces, different candidates, and even if we can predict the results, there are going to be interesting things to look for in today's boats. who is turning out for donald trump, what sections of the electorate? —— votes. easy winning over hispanic and black voters, and he is he holding onto the women voters who supported him in 2020, and on the democratic side, how enthusiastic our democrats for present biden? in what numbers are they turning out? —— president biden. if he can keep hold of the voters who supported him in 2020 and people who are thinking of staying home because of their doubts about his age or anything else about president biden, that could cost him a day or cost him the election in november so we will get some clues today as to what we can expect in a few months' time. later, on the bbc news at ten we'll be looking at what kind of candidate donald trump could be — and whether the democrats are definitely going to back biden. and there's a special programme on the results on the bbc news channel. the prisons watchdog say a vulnerable girl in a young offenders institution was twice pinned down and forcibly stripped by male guards. officials say staff at the site in wetherby, in west yorkshire had acted to prevent the girl from using her clothes to harm herself. our home editor mark easton reports. a boys borstal originally built in the 19505, wetherby young offenders institution today houses some of the most vulnerable and dysfunctional children in the country, including a very small number of girls. when prison inspectors turned up last november, they were deeply shocked to learn that one girl had twice been pinned down and stripped by a team of all male prison officers. staff had intervened to stop the girl potentially using her clothing to hang herself. but the inspection team noted the trauma this response would have had on someone with complex mental health needs. it is really shocking. it cannot be right that girls who are this vulnerable, who are this much of a risk to themselves, are being retraumatised by the processes by which they're being subjected to in this kind of establishment. over the last 20 years in england and wales, the average number of children locked up for their crimes has fallen very significantly, down from more than 3,000 in 2002 to 440. in the latest figures, almost all the children in prison are now teenage boys. just seven are girls, and three of those girls accounted for more than half of the 900 incidents of self—harm recorded at wetherbyjail in one year. the shift away from locking children up has prompted a rethink on how best to look after the few hundred whose crimes mean they must remain in custody. that's why formerjustice secretary dominic raab was posing for photos two years ago at what will be a secure school in kent for 49 of the most dangerous young criminals in the country. seven times over budget and years late, the oasis restore school will have no guards, no uniforms and no cells. these reports show clearly the need for a radical overhaul of our approach to children in custodial sentences. we have a new school opening with a therapeutic approach, which we hope will begin to be part of that answer. the government has a new youth justice gameplan, focusing on care rather than punishment. ministers believe it will help mark an end to the troubled management of the country's most challenging children. mark easton, bbc news. the widow of a former ira prisoner who was murdered as a suspected informant in 1992 says she forgives her husband 5 killers. claire dignam was speaking to the bbc in advance of a police report into some of the most classified aspects of the secret war between the british state and the ira. peter taylor reports. get yourselves off! freddie scappaticci was the embodiment of the so—called dirty war in northern ireland. the stories you make up! for almost 20 years the bbc has been prevented from showing these pictures. don't take any more photos! i'm telling you now, because if you do, i'll come out and (bleep) do you. scappaticci, who died last year, went into hiding after being exposed as the army's most important agent, codenamed stakeknife. his cover was as the most feared interrogator in the ira's notorious internal security unit known as the nutting squad. operation kenova has linked him to the murder of 17 alleged informers. astonishingly, some of them were also working for british intelligence. their families have suffered for decades without getting answers to their questions. were they informers? were their confessions real? why weren't they rescued? and why weren't their killers brought to justice? johnny dignam, a former ira prisoner, was suspected of being a british spy working for special branch. he paid the penalty — a bullet in the back of the head. his body was dumped on a lonely country road. i personally can't see him working for the ruc. i couldn't believe it, knowing johnny and living with him. i interviewed claire dignam 30 years ago. he was my husband and he was a father of my children. i loved him with every bone in my body. today, the memories are still painful. i don't have a photograph of my husband, because the memory of that, itjust brings up a dark, dark time. all the emotions that i've buried deep down inside. considering all she has been through, claire ended her interview on an unexpected note. i actually forgive the people that killed my husband. you forgave them? i have to forgive to live. does that include the person or persons who killed him, who murdered him? i have to forgive. if i don't forgive, i'll shrivel up and die. operation kenova has taken more than seven years and cost, overall, almost £40 million. last week, the prosecution service in northern ireland announced no charges will be brought. friday's investigation report may be the family's last hope. peter taylor, bbc news. a new satellite has been launched that can track emissions of the gas methane — which is a major contributor to climate change. up to a third of global warming is thought to be caused by the gas. the new satellite will allow methane leaks, from oil and gas facilities, to be tracked almost in real time, in a bid to reduce emissions. here 5 our climate editor, justin rowlatt. three, two, one. ignition. a falcon nine rocket blasts off from the california coast carrying an important new tool in the battle against climate change. it is a satellite designed to discern the telltale fingerprint of methane in the light reflected back from earth. methane sat will orbit 15 times a day, tracking methane emissions leaking from oil and gas facilities around the globe. rising methane emissions from human activities have been responsible for almost a third of climate change since the industrial revolution. methane is 80 times more powerful a warming gas than co2. but here's the thing — it doesn't stay in the atmosphere nearly as long, around 20 years, whereas co2 hangs around for centuries. what that means is cutting methane emissions now can rapidly slow global warming. the fossil fuel industry is the second biggest source of methane after agriculture, according to the environmental defense fund, the climate charity which developed methane sat. with current technologies, all the emissions of all the methane emissions from the oil and gas operations can actually be fixed at almost zero cost. so if you don't know where where the emissions are happening, you cannot fix them. so if you have data on where the emissions are happening, you can fix them. the satellite data will be publicly available. it will allow leaks from oil and gas operations to be identified so their owners can fix them. regulators and the general public will be able to use it to name and shame them if they don't. the hope is methane that will help cut emissions from the oil and gas sector by more than 40% in the coming years. justin rowlatt, bbc news. meet anne hughes — she's 72 and lives in pontypridd. she is having to get used to sudden fame after she was filmed on cctv getting caught in a shop's security shutters as they were being lifted. the freak accident left her dangling upside down several feet off the ground. she wasn't hurt thankfully, and her grandaughter has uploaded the footage online — and it has gone viral. here's anne herself talking us through what happened. i was leaning against the shutters, but unbeknownst to me when ahmed, the owner of the shop, was bringing the shutters up, he couldn't hear me shouting because i went right up. and then i screamed his name and, thank goodness, he came out and managed to get me in his arms. the comments that i've had about it have just been brilliant. i'll never go against those shutters again. i've learned my lesson. that was a lucky escape for andy hughes, who was not injured. remember this — one of those famous tv moments ? which left many swooning ? when the actor colin firth emerged from a lake wearing a soaked white shirt in the bbc�*s adaptation of pride and prejudice. that was 1995. today, that famous shirt has gone up for auction. our culture reporter noor nanji has been to have a look. it was the image that set pulses racing — colin firth as mr darcy, emerging from a lake in a wet shirt... mr darcy! ..in the 1995 bbc adaptation of pride and prejudice. it's just a simple linen shirt, but it's going under the hammer with an estimate price of £7000 to £10,000. it's one of more than 60 costumes to be auctioned in london tonight with the proceeds going to charity. also up for sale are costumes from tv drama series including peaky blinders and downton abbey. but it is colin firth's famous shirt attracting the most attention. what does it mean to you?— attracting the most attention. what does it mean to you? super sexy. six on lens does it mean to you? super sexy. six on legs and — does it mean to you? super sexy. six on legs and amazing _ does it mean to you? super sexy. six on legs and amazing to _ does it mean to you? super sexy. six on legs and amazing to watch - on legs and amazing to watch the film, and it is now on sale and it's fantastic. ., , film, and it is now on sale and it's fantastic. . , . film, and it is now on sale and it's fantastic. ., , . ., fantastic. certainly exciting, more so for my wife. — fantastic. certainly exciting, more so for my wife, she _ fantastic. certainly exciting, more so for my wife, she would - fantastic. certainly exciting, more so for my wife, she would love - fantastic. certainly exciting, more| so for my wife, she would love the piece. _ so for my wife, she would love the piece. not — so for my wife, she would love the piece, not so much for me, but a wonderfui— piece, not so much for me, but a wonderful piece, i am certain. i wonderful piece, i am certain. heard wonderful piece, i am certain. i heard about it this morning so i've come _ heard about it this morning so i've come home — heard about it this morning so i've come home there _ heard about it this morning so i've come home there and _ heard about it this morning so i've come home there and i— heard about it this morning so i've come home there and i am - heard about it this morning so i've i come home there and i am tempted because _ come home there and i am tempted because i_ come home there and i am tempted because i love — come home there and i am tempted because i love colin— come home there and i am tempted because i love colin firth. _ come home there and i am tempted because i love colin firth. the - because i love colin firth. the auction is _ because i love colin firth. the auction is still _ because i love colin firth. auction is still going on that because i love colin firth.- auction is still going on that in the last few minutes bidding has begun on colin firth's shot. we hope to bring you the price alive, because we are not there and there's a lot of excitement in the room as the bidders range from hollywood costume collectors and die—hard fans, and for one lucky person it will be their chance to own a piece of screen history. here's stav danaos. .. mixed fortunes today with western area seeing the best of the weather and further south cloudy with showers around and we will see more showers around and we will see more showers in the south—east but there will be showers dotted around. we have high pressure to the east of us and lower pressure to the west and we've had the weather fronts trapped in between them, and it looks like the one towards western scotland will fade through the overnight period and it will turn dry with clearer skies but in eastern scotland and eastern england some spots of rain and this is where we will see temperatures not falling much below two or 5 degrees but there will be fast and mitch —— patches of mist as well. high pressure dominates the scene and there will be showers in the mix and a weak weather front across eastern england which will start to melt away in the south—east and become confined to eastern scotland and north—east england so this is where we will see the cloud but elsewhere we will see the cloud but elsewhere we should see sunshine around including parts of the east midlands and if you showers will develop in the midlands and east wales and temperature —wise, away from the east coast, which will be chilly, we are looking at 11 or 12 degrees. thursday, the area of high pressure exerts its force across the uk more and we pick up a strong south easterly breeze, so strong sunshine across the country, the best was the west and some cloud in the east and showers in the mix through the midlands into wales and a few down the east coast and temperatures up between 11 and 12 but it won't feel as warm because of the strength of the wind which picks up either further and a strong south easterly and on the hump of the south—west it will bring showers and long spells of rain but further north and east it should be drier with a bit of sunshine around but that's a strong south easterly wind that will take the temperatures down a little bit and that's it from me.