sense, and investment, investing where we need to invest. and give me our where we need to invest. and give me your assessment _ where we need to invest. and give me your assessment if _ where we need to invest. and give me your assessment if you _ where we need to invest. and give me your assessment if you will _ where we need to invest. and give me your assessment if you will of - where we need to invest. and give me your assessment if you will of where l your assessment if you will of where the uk figures right now against some of its peers. we know the us is in a similar position in terms of things like inflation and interest rates, having to raise rates to keep a lid on prices. other developed economies across europe are facing similar challenges. where do we sit in terms of economic growth and how well the uk is performing right now? starting with inflation, we have been doing relatively well. it is a bit sticky but some of it is down to the structure of the economy being slightly different and the way we are protecting households against higher gas prices etc. so inflation is going down fairly swiftly in the uk. this is all really largely down to the bank of england, policies like very strong interest rates we have seen over the year. but it is slightly higher than many other developed economies yet. we would expect interest rates to remain higher potentially for a bit longer and that will put more pressure on the uk economy. we also have more headwind in terms of more uncertainty in the uk, so business investment has been weaker, exports have been weak generally in the uk compared to other developed economies due to a range of things, uncertainty and policy uncertainty is one of them. as a result of that we are expecting growth in the uk thatis we are expecting growth in the uk that is weaker than in the us and some other european economies but stronger than a few other european economies like germany for example, which has been hit quite hard by the higher energy prices and the changing relationship with countries like china. at changing relationship with countries like china. �* , ., , . like china. at this time of year when we hear _ like china. at this time of year when we hear from _ like china. at this time of year when we hear from the - like china. at this time of year - when we hear from the chancellor there is always a temptation for him to want to make a big headline grabbing move. that could perhaps be a cut in income tax. it's something we will field directly. but it is expensive, it is potentially inflationary and doesn't target those who probably need it the most. is it your expectation that he will hold off from cutting income tax, particularly because without reform of those thresholds at which we start to pay income tax or get tipped into a higher category, without change to those thresholds, any cut would be all but wiped out, wouldn't it? it any cut would be all but wiped out, wouldn't it?— wouldn't it? it is really a question of tinkering _ wouldn't it? it is really a question of tinkering with _ wouldn't it? it is really a question of tinkering with the _ wouldn't it? it is really a question of tinkering with the burden - wouldn't it? it is really a question of tinkering with the burden on i of tinkering with the burden on households in the sense that if you are not increasing the threshold by the rate of inflation or anything towards that, the only thing you are doing is alleviating a little bit the increase in the burden on households. so it may look great, but actually in terms of the burden on households it's not really bringing them back to where they were. you just want a bit easier in that sense. were. you just want a bit easier in that sense-— were. you just want a bit easier in that sense. ., ., . ., that sense. you touched on it there, we should point— that sense. you touched on it there, we should point out _ that sense. you touched on it there, we should point out for— that sense. you touched on it there, we should point out for example - that sense. you touched on it there, | we should point out for example that a third of adults don't pay income tax but do pay things like vat, so reform in other areas of taxation might be appropriate across the board. but we will wait and see. a final thought from you if you will, because, and i have touched on it already, in september the chancellor said now was not the time, he said it was virtually impossible to start cutting taxes. many will wonder what has changed, why the change in rhetoric and why the potential for tax cuts in the autumn statement today. the economy is not in a very different position but what we do know is happening is a potential general election next year. so is that the reason for the change of heart, do you think?— that the reason for the change of heart, do you think? well, i'm not the chancellor, _ heart, do you think? well, i'm not the chancellor, so _ heart, do you think? well, i'm not the chancellor, so that _ heart, do you think? well, i'm not the chancellor, so that is - heart, do you think? well, i'm not the chancellor, so that is their - the chancellor, so that is their decision. all i can say is that when you look at the fiscal targets, when you look at the fiscal targets, when you look at the fiscal targets, when you look at the levels of debt we have, there is still a long way to go in order to bring back public finances to a more sustainable level. how you do it, and the pace you do it, this is really down to the chancellor. but he also has his fiscal rule that he is supposed to be meeting. so it's a very difficult iugghng be meeting. so it's a very difficult juggling act for any chancellor at this stage to try and address so many different things he needs to address with a very limited envelope of spending that he can use. goad address with a very limited envelope of spending that he can use. good to have ou of spending that he can use. good to have you with _ of spending that he can use. good to have you with us _ of spending that he can use. good to have you with us as _ of spending that he can use. good to have you with us as always, - of spending that he can use. good to have you with us as always, from - have you with us as always, from kpmg, chief economist at yael selfin, thank you. lots to digest, and we will get the news from the chancellor at 12:30pm, that's when we will start to get detail and work out what it could all mean for you. and later today we will do exactly that and assess what it could mean for you. at 4.16 this afternoon we will be joined for you. at 4.16 this afternoon we will bejoined by for you. at 4.16 this afternoon we will be joined by consumer finance experts to answer your questions about the autumn statement. get in touch and sending your questions about anything you hear today from the chancellor and what it could mean for you and the difference it will make for your own personal finances and for your budget at home. you can use the hashtag bbc your questions, or e—mail us. from here in westminster, that's all for now. we will stay right across developments in the building behind me throughout the day. another big event today is the continuation of the covid inquiry. we expect to hear from two key witnesses in the inquiry today giving evidence. jonathan van—tam is due later today, one of england's deputy chief medical officers during the pandemic. he is due to speak and it has already emerged he expressed serious concerns about the spread of the virus back injanuary of 2020. and england's chief medical officer, professor sir chris whitty, will complete his evidence this morning for is that we can join them there now. for is that we can 'oin them there now. , ., , , ., now. sometimes a slightly more h erbolic now. sometimes a slightly more hyperbolic language. _ now. sometimes a slightly more hyperbolic language. the - now. sometimes a slightly more| hyperbolic language. the general points being made we would completely have agreed with and did communicate. in a sense the demonstration of that, to some extent, is that, and the e—mails say, and i am doing this from memory, we need to be acting sooner or very soon, i think those are the words quoted, and four days later the prime minister told everyone to stay at home. i think that communication was occurring and there was inevitably a process of negotiation about how this is going to be interpreted within downing street but i think they were correct to be concerned, so i completely agree with their consent, and there was a subsequent action from the government. was a subsequent action from the government-— government. indeed. it may be sou:ht, government. indeed. it may be sought, though, _ government. indeed. it may be sought, though, that _ government. indeed. it may be sought, though, that by - government. indeed. it may be sought, though, that by virtue | government. indeed. it may be i sought, though, that by virtue of the effect — sought, though, that by virtue of the effect professor ferguson thought it necessary to communicate directly— thought it necessary to communicate directly with number ten and the way these _ directly with number ten and the way these concerns were expressed internally, that there was a body of opinion— internally, that there was a body of opinion within sage and externally who were — opinion within sage and externally who were concerned that the government bluntlyjust didn't get it. government bluntlyjust didn't get it but _ government bluntlyjust didn't get it. but you are content, are you, that— it. but you are content, are you, that it — it. but you are content, are you, that it did? — it. but you are content, are you, that it did? i— it. but you are content, are you, that it did?— it. but you are content, are you, that it did? i think it depends how ou define that it did? i think it depends how you define the _ that it did? i think it depends how you define the words _ that it did? i think it depends how you define the words get - that it did? i think it depends how you define the words get it. - that it did? i think it depends how you define the words get it. i - that it did? i think it depends howl you define the words get it. i think i am content to the government was in receipt of the information from the sage group and people on the sage group and people on sage felt urgency was needed and this escalated, and you can see this in their minutes. this escalates further beyond the 12th. did i think all parts of the downing street machinery equally were seized of the urgency, i was not. machinery equally were seized of the urgency, iwas not. but machinery equally were seized of the urgency, i was not. but in the sense of the job of sir patrick and me amongst others, but reasonably, warner and dominic cummings and others, was to make sure they understood the urgency of action. this goes back to the discussion we had yesterday and this is quite a key point, the numbers we are talking about on the face of it at this point, that were actually being reported were small. if i can look, this is the ilith, we are talking about. the 14th of march, is that correct? ., about. the 14th of march, is that correct? . ., , ., correct? the internal e-mails of the 12th? at this — correct? the internal e-mails of the 12th? at this point _ correct? the internal e-mails of the 12th? at this point 590 _ correct? the internal e-mails of the 12th? at this point 590 cases - correct? the internal e-mails of the 12th? at this point 590 cases beingl 12th? at this point 590 cases being re orted 12th? at this point 590 cases being reported and _ 12th? at this point 590 cases being reported and ten _ 12th? at this point 590 cases being reported and ten deaths. _ 12th? at this point 590 cases being reported and ten deaths. we - 12th? at this point 590 cases being reported and ten deaths. we knew| reported and ten deaths. we knew subsequently they were higher than that. i think people were really not able to conceptualise how exponential growth would turn from those apparently smaller numbers, still each one a tragedy, but smaller numbers, to really very large numbers in an extremely short period of time because of the doubling time. i think this bit is a period where getting that through was not always straightforward. flan was not always straightforward. can ou was not always straightforward. can you elaborate please professor on which _ you elaborate please professor on which parts of the system in your view_ which parts of the system in your view might— which parts of the system in your view might not have, to use your phrase, — view might not have, to use your phrase, got _ view might not have, to use your phrase, got it? you said obviously your task— phrase, got it? you said obviously your task was to make sure they understood, that was your primary function, _ understood, that was your primary function, one of them, but there were _ function, one of them, but there were plainly difficulties in getting the message across and it being received — the message across and it being received in a proper manner. which parts _ received in a proper manner. which parts of— received in a proper manner. which parts of the — received in a proper manner. which parts of the system did you sense were _ parts of the system did you sense were just — parts of the system did you sense were just simply didn't appreciate the emergency, the immediacy of the problem _ the emergency, the immediacy of the problem and the exponential growth? i think— problem and the exponential growth? i think it's _ problem and the exponential growth? i think it's a _ problem and the exponential growth? i think it's a relatively widespread lack of understanding of where we were going to hurt. i think the people who had been heavily involved in looking at this, certainly dominic cummings would be one but there were many others, had realised by now that this is heading in a very difficult direction. but i don't think everyone in the building did. this is not an individual, and it's a point i made repeatedly, this was a lot of people really not getting what exponential growth was actually going to mean. thea;r getting what exponential growth was actually going to mean.— actually going to mean. they did of course subsequently _ actually going to mean. they did of course subsequently fully - course subsequently fully understand.— course subsequently fully i understand._ can course subsequently fully - understand._ can i turn course subsequently fully _ understand._ can i turn to understand. yes, yeah. can i turn to the issue of— understand. yes, yeah. can i turn to the issue of herd _ understand. yes, yeah. can i turn to the issue of herd immunity? - understand. yes, yeah. can i turn to the issue of herd immunity? it - understand. yes, yeah. can i turn to the issue of herd immunity? it is, i the issue of herd immunity? it is, you described in your statement, technically possible for an infection to travel through a population naturally until such a point _ population naturally until such a point that— population naturally until such a point that population immunity is achieved, — point that population immunity is achieved, enough people get affected that the _ achieved, enough people get affected that the virus stops. and that's population or herd immunity. there has been _ population or herd immunity. there has been a — population or herd immunity. there has been a very extensive debate, as you are _ has been a very extensive debate, as you are very— has been a very extensive debate, as you are very well aware, about whether— you are very well aware, about whether or _ you are very well aware, about whether or not herd immunity was every— whether or not herd immunity was every goat— whether or not herd immunity was every goal of government or an aim, as opposed — every goal of government or an aim, as opposed to being a by—product of any system — as opposed to being a by—product of any system of control or countermeasures being applied that doesn't _ countermeasures being applied that doesn't drive the system and the country— doesn't drive the system and the country down to zero covid. of course, — country down to zero covid. of course, it's_ country down to zero covid. of course, it's going to spread in some shape _ course, it's going to spread in some shape or— course, it's going to spread in some shape or form. to get some idea of the scale. — shape or form. to get some idea of the scale, what percentage of the population as it transpired was infected — population as it transpired was infected by covid, the coronavirus, byjune _ infected by covid, the coronavirus, byjune of— infected by covid, the coronavirus, byjune of 2020, so we can get a feel of— byjune of 2020, so we can get a feel of how— byjune of 2020, so we can get a feel of how extensive the prevalence was and _ feel of how extensive the prevalence was and the infection. by feel of how extensive the prevalence was and the infection.— was and the infection. by june, i do have that data... _ was and the infection. by june, i do have that data... very _ was and the infection. by june, i do have that data... very roughly? i was and the infection. by june, i do l have that data... very roughly? very rou~hl , have that data... very roughly? very roughly. let's — have that data... very roughly? very roughly. let's go _ have that data. .. very roughly? very roughly, let's go back— have that data... very roughly? very roughly, let's go back a _ have that data... very roughly? very roughly, let's go back a step, - roughly, let's go back a step, because i think in a sense i am cautious even of the possibility that herd immunity was achievable at all, is ordinarily understood. that's a caveat. let's make an assumption that at the extreme example where covid infection provided lifelong immunity completely, so you get an infection and you will never get under infection, you would then need to, with the force of transmission we had, achieved for the sake of argument, around 80% of the population would have to become affected, with all the attendant risks, that's the key point to many people did not understand this, did not get. and at the end ofjune after an appalling first wave in which many people died, from memory i think a less than 20% of the population had been infected. i wouldn't want to be held to that. just a broad figure. meiii wouldn't want to be held to that. just a broad figure.— just a broad figure. well short of what ou just a broad figure. well short of what you would _ just a broad figure. well short of what you would have _ just a broad figure. well short of what you would have needed, i just a broad figure. well short of i what you would have needed, even had herd immunity been a possibility but as i said in my witness statement, i have spent much of my professional career dealing with infections for which herd immunity is never achieved, herd immunity is normally understood. that's the first point. the second point is that herd immunity was used in two completely different ways, the term was, and this caused confusion to those who were confused by herd immunity, which in my view was a lot of people. some people were meeting the herd immunity threshold, the point you are talking about, the point at which for practical purposes further waves are unlikely, which is very high. the modellers were using it in a sense of gradual increasing levels of immunity meaning the effective force of transmission gradually decreases but not to the point where there is no waves. i think there was a model up between those two completely different uses of the term and frankly, and i touched on this yesterday, there was a large amount of chatter about this by people who had at best half understood the issue. i think it became very confused and, as you will have seen from my correspondence, my only contribution on this really up to the point about the 20th march was to say to people, this is very complicated, please don't talk about it. not because i wanted to hide it, but because i thought a very uninformed discussion was forming that wasn't helping policy—making. i5 was forming that wasn't helping policy-making-_ was forming that wasn't helping policy-making. is that a reference in fact to whatsapp _ policy-making. is that a reference in fact to whatsapp messages i policy-making. is that a referencej in fact to whatsapp messages you sent to _ in fact to whatsapp messages you sent to and from the secretary of state _ sent to and from the secretary of state and — sent to and from the secretary of state and others in a csa, cmo pm group, _ state and others in a csa, cmo pm group, where you caution against the direction _ group, where you caution against the direction of _ group, where you caution against the direction of the public debate about herd immunity and where that is going. _ herd immunity and where that is going. and — herd immunity and where that is going, and you tried to put it in a proper— going, and you tried to put it in a proper context. my going, and you tried to put it in a proper context.— going, and you tried to put it in a proper context. my view was it was a clearly ridiculous _ proper context. my view was it was a clearly ridiculous goal— proper context. my view was it was a clearly ridiculous goal of— proper context. my view was it was a clearly ridiculous goal of policy i clearly ridiculous goal of policy and a very dangerous one and i thought a lot of what was being said could have led to considerable confusion and indeed did. i have laid out several times in public, and i did in my statement, my view that it would have been inconceivable that this should have been an actual goal of policy because it would have led to extraordinarily high loss of life evenif extraordinarily high loss of life even if it had been achieved, which in reality it would probably not have been in the ordinary sense. nevertheless, the phrase herd immunity was of course used by sir patrick— immunity was of course used by sir patrick publicly and by government and some — patrick publicly and by government and some officials, ministers and advisers — and some officials, ministers and advisers. can you just explain further, — advisers. can you just explain further, please, what, ifi advisers. can you just explain further, please, what, if i may call at this, _ further, please, what, if i may call at this, what— further, please, what, if i may call at this, what the problems are with herd immunity? you explain in your statement — herd immunity? you explain in your statement that the more transmissible and infection is the higher— transmissible and infection is the higher the proportion of the population needs to be in order for the population to become immune through— the population to become immune through this herd immunity or population immunity. putting aside the question completely of vaccines. as you _ the question completely of vaccines. as you describe, you need to get to a very— as you describe, you need to get to a very high— as you describe, you need to get to a very high level for this ever to work. _ a very high level for this ever to work. if— a very high level for this ever to work. if it— a very high level for this ever to work, if it can ever be said to work at alt _ work, if it can ever be said to work at alt what— work, if it can ever be said to work at all. what problems generically may be _ at all. what problems generically may be encountered if you were, for arguments— may be encountered if you were, for arguments sake, seek to pursue such arguments sake, seek to pursue such a policy? _ arguments sake, seek to pursue such a policy? is— arguments sake, seek to pursue such a policy? is that a significant part of the _ a policy? is that a significant part of the population which becomes open to infection, does it still remain at risk— to infection, does it still remain at risk from _ to infection, does it still remain at risk from obviously hospitalisation or death in terms of the impact — hospitalisation or death in terms of the impact of the infection? the first thing. _ the impact of the infection? the first thing. you _ the impact of the infection? fie: first thing, you say setting the impact of the infection? tue: first thing, you say setting aside vaccines, the one the situation in my view, and i have said this before this pandemic and it's a fairly widespread view by those who understand herd immunity, that you would ever aim to achieve herd immunity is by vaccination. that is the only situation that is a rational policy response. ijust wanted to make that clear. the first question is, can you achieve it at all. and we have no idea whether evenin all. and we have no idea whether even in a theoretical situation the population would buy natural infection even get to the herd immunity threshold, first point. but much more importantly in the short term, essentially what you are saying if you go up to that threshold, which for the sake of argument is 80% of the population, were that to be the case, all of those people carry all of the risks of an infection.— those people carry all of the risks of an infection.- over . those people carry all of the risks of an infection.- over a | those people carry all of the risks i of an infection.- over a 1% of an infection. meaning? over a 1% but --eole of an infection. meaning? over a 1% but people of— of an infection. meaning? over a 1% but people of higher _ of an infection. meaning? over a 1% but people of higher risk, _ of an infection. meaning? over a 1% but people of higher risk, older- but people of higher risk, older citizens, people with disabilities, immunosuppression and so on, very significant risks of mortality. the impact of that on mortality would be very severe and i laid this out in a paper around the 21st of march, i think, to number ten and various other people because i wanted them to understand this point, because i thought it had become extremely muddled in the public debate. the only situation where that wasn't the case was if there was a huge amount of asymptomatic transmission we were not detecting. in all the circumstances we would have been in a situation where very large loss of life would have occurred had that been attempted. for life would have occurred had that been attempted.— life would have occurred had that been attempted. for that part of the --oulation been attempted. for that part of the population which _ been attempted. for that part of the population which is _ been attempted. for that part of the population which is unable _ been attempted. for that part of the population which is unable to - been attempted. for that part of the population which is unable to be i population which is unable to be shielded, — population which is unable to be shielded, cocoon, segmented, however you describe _ shielded, cocoon, segmented, however you describe it, it remains at risk of hospitalisation,, of death, and therefore — of hospitalisation,, of death, and therefore itjust doesn't of hospitalisation,, of death, and therefore it just doesn't work, because — therefore it just doesn't work, because they already and they remain open to— because they already and they remain open to infection.— open to infection. exactly. secondly. _ open to infection. exactly. secondly, in _ open to infection. exactly. secondly, in practice, i open to infection. exactly. secondly, in practice, is. open to infection. exactly. secondly, in practice, is it| secondly, in practice, is it possible _ secondly, in practice, is it possible to hermetically seal particular segments of the population in order that they may not be _ population in order that they may not be open to infection under such a policy— not be open to infection under such a policy were it to be pursued. | a policy were it to be pursued. i think a policy were it to be pursued. think you a policy were it to be pursued. i think you may want to come back to the system we called shielding. but i always thought it was wholly impractical for multiple reasons to try and achieve that. and there are two in particular. the first one is in a sense theoretical. let's say theoretically you could achieve a complete barrier between the virus and those people, and my view was that would never be achieved, and we will come back to that. these people would have to be in isolation for incredibly long periods of time, that doesn't matter whether it's the great barrington declaration kind of model, or the model proposed by professor woolhouse or whatever. this is long periods of isolation for people who are very vulnerable and often in later stages of their life. there were practical reasons. and then i could not see a situation where something which was so transmissible from people who were at least presymptomatic and asymptomatic, as we subsequently became confident, would not eventually catch it anyway because of the idea you could somehow provide this barrier struck me as wholly impracticalfor provide this barrier struck me as wholly impractical for those reasons as well. so i thought the various attempts on this were theoretically, you could debate them, but they were clearly not going to work and clearly not going to work and clearly going to lead to significant loss of life in my view. that's why i was extremely cautious of them. is there another issue in relation to there another issue in relation to the notion. — there another issue in relation to the notion, orthe assumption, that those _ the notion, orthe assumption, that those people who threw population immunity— those people who threw population immunity become infected, through this herd _ immunity become infected, through this herd immunity process become infected. _ this herd immunity process become infected, may not actually remain or become _ infected, may not actually remain or become immune thereafter, that there is a risk— become immune thereafter, that there is a risk they— become immune thereafter, that there is a risk they may in fact become reinfected — is a risk they may in fact become reinfected at a later stage so it simply— reinfected at a later stage so it simply wouldn't work? exactly, as indeed happened _ simply wouldn't work? exactly, as indeed happened with _ simply wouldn't work? exactly, as indeed happened with covid. i simply wouldn't work? exactly, as indeed happened with covid. and | indeed happened with covid. and there is a big difference, in a sense all of us are able to have this meeting here in an open room, is because most people are protected, firstly by vaccination, but they are also protected against severe disease. even people who are otherwise not vulnerable to disease, to catch a disease, their immune system will stop them getting to the point of intensive care or potentially dying. that is different from herd immunity. that is to do with individual protection against severe disease. in a sense they are not different sorts of immunity, although there is a large amount of technical issues around that, but the fact is you can get a disease a second time at much less severely than the first time, but that still means you catch it and can transmit it with many infections, and covid is just one of them. you it with many infections, and covid isjust one of them.— it with many infections, and covid isjust one of them. you referred to the treat isjust one of them. you referred to the great barrington _ isjust one of them. you referred to the great barrington declaration, i isjust one of them. you referred to the great barrington declaration, a| the great barrington declaration, a proposition, if you like, arguing for focused protection, a degree of segmentation or shielding, which allows— segmentation or shielding, which allows infection otherwise to spread through— allows infection otherwise to spread through lower risk parts of the population. in your view, through lower risk parts of the population. in yourview, is through lower risk parts of the population. in your view, is that a variant, _ population. in your view, is that a variant, if— population. in your view, is that a variant, if you like, on a herd immunity— variant, if you like, on a herd immunity goal?— variant, if you like, on a herd immunity goal? yes. scientifically and ethically _ immunity goal? yes. scientifically and ethically does _ immunity goal? jazz scientifically and ethically does it follow from what _ and ethically does it follow from what you — and ethically does it follow from what you said that you have very grave _ what you said that you have very grave doubts about the wisdom of such an _ grave doubts about the wisdom of such an approach or declaration? yes, _ such an approach or declaration? yes. i_ such an approach or declaration? yes, i thought it was floored at multiple levels. i thought it made an assumption of full immunity that would be lifelong, that they didn't state but i thought it was an assumption that was extreme the unclear and proved to be incorrect, as demonstrated. i considered the idea you could properly shield or identify all the right people. to take the case of mrjohnson the prime minster, he would not have been someone i thought would be considered, someone included in the group and he got very severe covid. he is an example of a kind of person you would not have been able to identify. those you correctly identify. those you correctly identify you would not be able to field. and the result of this would have been you would have had long periods of isolation at the end of which people still have covid anyway. the idea this was a sensible proposition struck me as zero, actually. proposition struck me as zero, actuall . , ., , , actually. the inquiry has seen nevertheless _ actually. the inquiry has seen nevertheless multiple - actually. the inquiry has seen i nevertheless multiple references to herd immunity in e—mails, whatsapp messages, _ herd immunity in e—mails, whatsapp messages, sage group minutes and across— messages, sage group minutes and across the _ messages, sage group minutes and across the board. and publicly the idea did _ across the board. and publicly the idea did take hold, or the understanding did take hold to the effect _ understanding did take hold to the effect that the government was pursuing — effect that the government was pursuing to greater or lesser extent a policy— pursuing to greater or lesser extent a policy of— pursuing to greater or lesser extent a policy of herd immunity. how did that come — a policy of herd immunity. how did that come about then in light of what _ that come about then in light of what are — that come about then in light of what are very plain concerns you have _ what are very plain concerns you have expressed about the wisdom or validity— have expressed about the wisdom or validity of— have expressed about the wisdom or validity of such an approach? how did this _ validity of such an approach? how did this happen? i validity of such an approach? how did this happen?— did this happen? i think i can answer half _ did this happen? i think i can answer half of _ did this happen? i think i can answer half of that. - did this happen? i think i can answer half of that. there i did this happen? i think i can answer half of that. there is | did this happen? i think i can i answer half of that. there is no doubt that rightly the modellers and others were looking at this in their models to work out what would happen over time as people got infected. that is a perfectly appropriate thing to do, that's not to do with the threshold of herd immunity, this is to do with the gradual accretion of herd immunity. that is simply a calculation. haste of herd immunity. that is simply a calculation-— of herd immunity. that is simply a calculation. ~ , , ., ., calculation. we will step away from chris whitty — calculation. we will step away from chris whitty giving _ calculation. we will step away from chris whitty giving evidence - calculation. we will step away from chris whitty giving evidence at i calculation. we will step away from chris whitty giving evidence at the | chris whitty giving evidence at the covid inquiry. a reminder you can continue watching that evidence and the inquiry as it continues throughout the day over on the bbc iplayer, a dedicated stream will bring you all you need to know as far as that inquiry is concerned. i am here in westminster this morning and that's because the chancellor is due to deliver his mini budget, his autumn statement, a little bit later, laying out the government's tax and spending plans for the year ahead and we will have full coverage of that. another story we are following today, police in north wales are trying to establish the cause of a car accident in which four teenage boys died in dramatic. jevon hirst, harvey owen, wilf henderson and hugo morris from shrewsbury have been missing since sunday for was thought they were camping around the area known as snowdonia. their vehicle was found upside down and partially submerged in water. our reporter has the latest from shrewsbury now. here in shrewsbury the _ latest from shrewsbury now. here in shrewsbury the reaction _ shrewsbury the reaction understandably has been one of mourning and sadness. these were four young men aged between 16 and 18 and their lives four young men aged between 16 and i8 and their lives have tragically been cut short. here at the parish church people have been able to come and pay their respects. i am joined by the referent charlotte complex. tell me the impact this has had on the community. tell me the impact this has had on the community-— the community. utter devastation this morning- _ the community. utter devastation this morning. when _ the community. utter devastation this morning. when you _ the community. utter devastation this morning. when you wake i the community. utter devastation this morning. when you wake upl the community. utter devastation i this morning. when you wake up and think you _ this morning. when you wake up and think you might have dreamt yesterday's awful news and you realise — yesterday's awful news and you realise that it is still a reality, it's utterly _ realise that it is still a reality, it's utterly devastating. those lads were well— it's utterly devastating. those lads were well loved within the community and wider— were well loved within the community and wider shrewsbury community. people _ and wider shrewsbury community. people around here, it is a close—knit community. they would have _ close—knit community. they would have gone — close—knit community. they would have gone to school together since they were — have gone to school together since they were four years old, people round _ they were four years old, people round here. ithink they were four years old, people round here. i think people are devastated and no don't know what to do with _ devastated and no don't know what to do with the _ devastated and no don't know what to do with the information. it is so tragic — do with the information. it is so tra . ic. ., �* do with the information. it is so traaic. ., �* ~ ., tragic. you didn't know the young men personally — tragic. you didn't know the young men personally but _ tragic. you didn't know the young men personally but you _ tragic. you didn't know the young men personally but you know i tragic. you didn't know the young | men personally but you know their families. is that right and how are they feeling?— they feeling? yes, i haven't been able to speak _ they feeling? yes, i haven't been able to speak to _ they feeling? yes, i haven't been able to speak to them _ they feeling? yes, i haven't been able to speak to them yet. i i they feeling? yes, i haven't been j able to speak to them yet. i think today— able to speak to them yet. i think today particularly is an incredibly private _ today particularly is an incredibly private space for families to even begin— private space for families to even begin processing, let alone grieving. the wider community for sure has— grieving. the wider community for sure has been into the church. some people _ sure has been into the church. some people yesterday, just to light a candle _ people yesterday, just to light a candle and say a prayer and hold each _ candle and say a prayer and hold each other— candle and say a prayer and hold each other in this space as we begin to grieve _ each other in this space as we begin to grieve and process the terrible and tragic— to grieve and process the terrible and tragic news.— and tragic news. thank you for s-ueakin and tragic news. thank you for speaking to — and tragic news. thank you for speaking to me, _ and tragic news. thank you for speaking to me, charlotte. i and tragic news. thank you for| speaking to me, charlotte. this church is just a stone's throw away from shrewsbury college where there was men would have socialised and learnt together. in a statement yesterday they said they offered their deepest condolences to family and friends and said the news is truly heartbreaking and our thoughts go out to all those affected. it said we will be working directly with students and staff affected by the terrible accident and hope to put in place a range of support measures. this morning we have also seen a statement on facebook from harvey owen's mother crystal who says she feels like she is a nightmare she can't wake up from. she says she appreciates the messages of support she has received but nothing will make that nightmare go away. the but nothing will make that nightmare no awa . . . but nothing will make that nightmare no awa . ., , ., but nothing will make that nightmare uoawa. ., , ., ,, ,, , go away. the latest from shrewsbury. full details on — go away. the latest from shrewsbury. full details on the _ go away. the latest from shrewsbury. full details on the bbc— go away. the latest from shrewsbury. full details on the bbc news - full details on the bbc news website. it is worth saying we are here in westminster this morning because a little later we will hear from the chancellor who will lay out his tax and spending plans in the autumn statement. big questions about what's in store but we know there could be some pre—election sweeteners designed to win over voters ahead of a general election next year, may be a cut in income tax, a rise in the minimum wage for example. could there be a cut in inheritance tax? maybe, but it has been condemned as tone deaf amid a cost of living crisis was up that's downing street right now. the other big story we are following is in israel with anna foster. live from tel aviv, this is bbc news. israel and hamas agree a deal to pause fighting, so that 50 hostages can be released from gaza. the deal will allow aid to be sent into gaza and see the release of 150 palestinian women and children from israeli jails. i'm luxmy gopal. the other main headlines this hour: cuts to national insurance and business taxes are expected to be included in the uk chancellor's autumn statement, which he will deliver at lunchtime. the artificial intelligence firm openai says its co—founder sam altman will return as ceo, days after his sacking triggered a revolt by staff. north korea launches a spy satellite into space, prompting south korea to partially suspend a military agreement between the two. polls are open in the netherlands, in a snap general election, following the collapse of the centre—right government. hello and welcome. you're watching bbc news from tel aviv. i'm anna foster. israel and hamas have agreed to a deal for a temporary ceasefire, during which dozens of israeli hostages — all of them women and children — will be released.

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