likely to be needed urgently than anyone _ likely to be needed urgently than anyone had realised. that is a data problem. _ anyone had realised. that is a data problem, but it was also i think a scientific— problem, but it was also i think a scientific problem in that you can't manage _ scientific problem in that you can't manage this with the precision that you think— manage this with the precision that you think you can and you therefore have to _ you think you can and you therefore have to take — you think you can and you therefore have to take different actions. i�*m have to take different actions. i'm auoin to have to take different actions. i“n going to come back to the decisions taken over that weekend briefly in a moment but i would like to take a step to one side before i do that and ask you some questions about your relationship with professor whitty at this time and the extent to which your views differed. and if we can look, please, at 214 —— 802. this is an extract from jeremy farrar? memoirs, one of the memoirs from scientist are you referred to giving us an insight into events. judgejeremy was a member of sage at this time. he describes, we see the second paragraph there, of a friction between waiting and waiting in. he said it led to a palpable tension between patrick and chris in the early weeks of 2020, particularly given the —— apparent absence of political leadership in that period. he refers to the fact that period. he refers to the fact that boris johnson that period. he refers to the fact that borisjohnson did not attend the first cobra meetings. he describes it as a palpable tension between waiting and waiting in. and there are some references in your notes which would seem to support that suggestion. if we can look pleased at 273—901, this is the schedule, ijust want pleased at 273—901, this is the schedule, i just want to show you a few references, sir patrick. perhaps we ought to say that you were not writing these notes contemporaneously for the first three months or so of the pandemic, you wrote a sort of catch up section in march or thereabouts looking back to the early days, but relating to january 2020, he thought chris thought it would be contained, the pm said his guts time it would be fine, but then chris whitty at the end is more cautious than me. if we can go to page three please. the last sentence or so. chris whitty worried about pulling the trigger to soon would cause harm, will produce some stuff a behavioural fatigue if you started too early. on page 582 of the schedule there is an entry that you made much later on but reflecting on the early events, so we are now in february 2021, with sir chris talking afterwards about the inquiry. was locked down too late in march, could we have known. he was a delay, of course. was there this tension, friction between the two of you about how quickly to proceed with npis in that period? chris whitty is a public health specialist and he was rightly, in my opinion, _ specialist and he was rightly, in my opinion, concerned about the adverse effects— opinion, concerned about the adverse effects of— opinion, concerned about the adverse effects of the npis. he was concerned that there would be more thanjust_ concerned that there would be more thanjust the issue of concerned that there would be more than just the issue of the concerned that there would be more thanjust the issue of the direct cause _ thanjust the issue of the direct cause of— thanjust the issue of the direct cause of death from the virus, that there _ cause of death from the virus, that there would be indirect causes of death— there would be indirect causes of death due — there would be indirect causes of death due to effects on the nhs, that there would be indirect harm is due to _ that there would be indirect harm is due to people isolating, mental health. — due to people isolating, mental health, loneliness, issues of health to come _ health, loneliness, issues of health to come from that procedure, and that there — to come from that procedure, and that there would be indirect long—term consequences due to the economic— long—term consequences due to the economic impacts creating poverty, which _ economic impacts creating poverty, which is _ economic impacts creating poverty, which is a _ economic impacts creating poverty, which is a major driver of health. he was— which is a major driver of health. he was definitely of the view that the treatment and the result of that treatment— the treatment and the result of that treatment needed to be considered together— treatment needed to be considered together and that pulling the trigger— together and that pulling the trigger to do things too early could lead to— trigger to do things too early could lead to adverse consequences. that i think is— lead to adverse consequences. that i think is a _ lead to adverse consequences. that i think is a totally appropriate worry from _ think is a totally appropriate worry from the _ think is a totally appropriate worry from the chief medical officer and a legitimate public health concern throughout and i didn't have exactly the same _ throughout and i didn't have exactly the same worry, i was more on the side of— the same worry, i was more on the side of we — the same worry, i was more on the side of we need to move on this, but ithink— side of we need to move on this, but i think that _ side of we need to move on this, but i think that is — side of we need to move on this, but i think that is partly why the two of us _ i think that is partly why the two of us find — i think that is partly why the two of us find it useful to work together. he would bring in views that were — together. he would bring in views that were brought public health views, — that were brought public health views, looking at the consequences of interventions, as well as the direct— of interventions, as well as the direct consequence of the virus. i think— direct consequence of the virus. i think sometimes i would want to push and he _ think sometimes i would want to push and he might not, sometimes he was i’ili'it and he might not, sometimes he was right and _ and he might not, sometimes he was right and sometimes i think you should — right and sometimes i think you should have gone earlier. this was an occasion — should have gone earlier. this was an occasion when i thought it was clear— an occasion when i thought it was clear we — an occasion when i thought it was clear we should have gone earlier. let me _ clear we should have gone earlier. let me go— clear we should have gone earlier. let me go back with that in mind to those meetings over that weekend of the 14th and 15th. i will not go to them in detail with you. but in summary, what was it that you are arguing for during the course of those meetings and what was your understanding of what was decided? we got information on the 13th of march _ we got information on the 13th of march which unambiguously showed that the _ march which unambiguously showed that the pandemic was far more widespread and far bigger and moving faster— widespread and far bigger and moving faster than— widespread and far bigger and moving faster than we had anticipated, and that came — faster than we had anticipated, and that came from a number of sources, including _ that came from a number of sources, including surveillance system is a great _ including surveillance system is a great set — including surveillance system is a great set up to look at people who had pneumonia, hospital—based had pneumonia, hospital— based surveillance had pneumonia, hospital—based surveillance and some were coming in from the _ surveillance and some were coming in from the initial sporadic surveillance systems and nhs numbers. that was unambiguous and extremely— numbers. that was unambiguous and extremely worrying. over that weekend _ extremely worrying. over that weekend it became very clear that much _ weekend it became very clear that much more — weekend it became very clear that much more stringent measures would be needed _ much more stringent measures would be needed to control this and they needed _ be needed to control this and they needed to— be needed to control this and they needed to be introduced quickly. i made _ needed to be introduced quickly. i made my— needed to be introduced quickly. i made my views known about that, that that was _ made my views known about that, that that was the _ made my views known about that, that that was the view of the sage committee and the modellers and it was my— committee and the modellers and it was my view that we were in a position— was my view that we were in a position where we had to move quickiy~ — position where we had to move quickly. that decision i believe was understood. on the sunday of that weekend _ understood. on the sunday of that weekend i— understood. on the sunday of that weekend i was unambiguous in the meeting _ weekend i was unambiguous in the meeting that much more stringent measures— meeting that much more stringent measures would be needed now i think that is— measures would be needed now i think that is recorded in imran shafi's notebooks. the following day when the prime — notebooks. the following day when the prime minister announced that there _ the prime minister announced that there would be voluntary measures to keep people from making contacts, i also suggested on that day that london — also suggested on that day that london was so far ahead that it would — london was so far ahead that it would be — london was so far ahead that it would be necessary to possibly lockdown london. those are my views over that _ lockdown london. those are my views over that weekend. frankly, lockdown london. those are my views overthat weekend. frankly, on lockdown london. those are my views over that weekend. frankly, on that weekend _ over that weekend. frankly, on that weekend and in principle decision was taken — weekend and in principle decision was taken that lockdown would be required — was taken that lockdown would be required. it then took several more days to _ required. it then took several more days to work that into a full mandatory process, but whether it was mandatory or voluntary is a political — was mandatory or voluntary is a political issue, not a scientific one~ — political issue, not a scientific one. ~ ., political issue, not a scientific one. ~ . ., ., ., , political issue, not a scientific one. ~ ., ., ., ., , ., one. we have heard from others that the term lockdown _ one. we have heard from others that the term lockdown might _ one. we have heard from others that the term lockdown might not - one. we have heard from others that the term lockdown might not have i the term lockdown might not have been one that was in play then, but you have said that your view in essence was that is what you were campaigning for at the weekend, and there was at least an understanding that that is where things were headed, as early as that. i that that is where things were headed, as early as that. i wasn't campaigning. _ headed, as early as that. i wasn't campaigning. i— headed, as early as that. i wasn't campaigning, i was _ headed, as early as that. i wasn't campaigning, i was trying - headed, as early as that. i wasn't campaigning, i was trying to - headed, as early as that. i wasn't| campaigning, i was trying to point with the _ campaigning, i was trying to point with the evidence was and howl interpreted it, and what sage thought~ _ interpreted it, and what sage thought. niall ferguson's work and others _ thought. niall ferguson's work and others work during february showed that in— others work during february showed that in order to get this down to a level— that in order to get this down to a level that — that in order to get this down to a level that we needed to be reduced by, we _ level that we needed to be reduced by, we needed to reduce contacts by 75%. by, we needed to reduce contacts by 75%~ that— by, we needed to reduce contacts by 75%~ that is— by, we needed to reduce contacts by 75%. that is a huge reduction. it requires — 75%. that is a huge reduction. it requires also is interventions. i'm not really— requires also is interventions. i'm not really sure we ever achieve much more _ not really sure we ever achieve much more than _ not really sure we ever achieve much more than 75% at the peak of the interventions. that is what i was arguing — interventions. that is what i was arguing for— interventions. that is what i was arguing for on that weekend, that if we wanted — arguing for on that weekend, that if we wanted to stop this from becoming devastating we needed that degree in the reduction of contacts. there devastating we needed that degree in the reduction of contacts.— the reduction of contacts. there are vafious the reduction of contacts. there are various references _ the reduction of contacts. there are various references in _ the reduction of contacts. there are various references in the _ the reduction of contacts. there are l various references in the documents, in your witness statement to the reaction of some of those who were at those meetings, to what you were saying. you were fair in places to people being incandescent entry referred to having been reprimanded for advancing those views. who was at that reprimanded you? i got for advancing those views. who was at that reprimanded you?— at that reprimanded you? i got a messa . e at that reprimanded you? i got a message back — at that reprimanded you? i got a message back that _ at that reprimanded you? i got a message back that the _ at that reprimanded you? i got a i message back that the permanent secretary — message back that the permanent secretary at the hse was incandescent with rage, i was the cabinet _ incandescent with rage, i was the cabinet secretary, about the fact i've cabinet secretary, about the fact we said — cabinet secretary, about the fact i've said this during the meeting on the sunday. i subsequently spoke to chris wormald and asked him why he thought— chris wormald and asked him why he thought that was something to be incandescent about and he said it was the _ incandescent about and he said it was the manner of raising it in the meeting _ was the manner of raising it in the meeting rather than the substance that he _ meeting rather than the substance that he was concerned about and i had thrown — that he was concerned about and i had thrown it into a ministerial meeting. — had thrown it into a ministerial meeting, whereas it should have gone through— meeting, whereas it should have gone through more due process, but i stand _ through more due process, but i stand by— through more due process, but i stand by the fact i think it was the i’ili'lt stand by the fact i think it was the right thing — stand by the fact i think it was the right thing to say at the time. and that was the _ right thing to say at the time. fiflc that was the reprimand right thing to say at the time. fific that was the reprimand as right thing to say at the time. e"ic that was the reprimand as well, right thing to say at the time. el"ic that was the reprimand as well, was it? i that was the reprimand as well, was it? ., , ., ., �* that was the reprimand as well, was it? ., ., ., �* ., , it? i was told i hadn't done things the riaht it? i was told i hadn't done things the right way _ it? i was told i hadn't done things the right way and _ it? i was told i hadn't done things the right way and it _ it? i was told i hadn't done things the right way and it was _ the right way and it was inappropriate for me to raise that. subsequently, on the monday when i suggested that london was so far advanced. — suggested that london was so far advanced, it is worth remembering that in— advanced, it is worth remembering that in terms of timing of this, london — that in terms of timing of this, london was quite a long way ahead of other parts— london was quite a long way ahead of other parts of the country, so although— other parts of the country, so although we had ceded the infection by although we had ceded the infection try the _ although we had ceded the infection by the way across the country, other pitch you _ by the way across the country, other pitch you could argue went into npis quite pitch you could argue went into npis guite earty, — pitch you could argue went into npis quite early, earlier than other countries _ quite early, earlier than other countries when you look at where it was _ countries when you look at where it was london— countries when you look at where it was. london looked like it needed more _ was. london looked like it needed more and — was. london looked like it needed more and i— was. london looked like it needed more and i made that point in that meeting — more and i made that point in that meeting. there was a very clear rejection — meeting. there was a very clear rejection of _ meeting. there was a very clear rejection of the proposal and i don't — rejection of the proposal and i don't think the chancellor was terribly— don't think the chancellor was terribly pleased. why not? well, guite _ terribly pleased. why not? well, quite rightly, he is concerned about the economy and london was very much the economy and london was very much the engine _ the economy and london was very much the engine of— the economy and london was very much the engine of the economy and that was a _ the engine of the economy and that was a massive, massive decision to take _ was a massive, massive decision to take. ., , was a massive, massive decision to take. . , , ., was a massive, massive decision to take. ., , ., ., take. last question on the reprimand- _ take. last question on the reprimand. one _ take. last question on the reprimand. one of- take. last question on the reprimand. one of the - take. last question on the - reprimand. one of the documents amongst the disclosure would suggest that sir chris whitty was one of those who reprimanded you on this occasion. , ., , , , occasion. chris was the messenger. he did not reprimand _ occasion. chris was the messenger. he did not reprimand me. - occasion. chris was the messenger. he did not reprimand me. he - occasion. chris was the messenger. he did not reprimand me. he didn'tj he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in — he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in the _ he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in the game. _ he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in the game. no. - he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in the game. no. i - he did not reprimand me. he didn't have skin in the game. no. i want l he did not reprimand me. he didn't| have skin in the game. no. i want to move on, the last set of questions on this bilic —— particular issues about the timing of the lockdown. as i understand it, you say that you think this first lockdown was imposed a week too late. i think you are referring there to the delay, as you would put it, from that weekend when the discussions we have just been covering were harrods and the mandatory lockdown which was introduced a week later. the word she uses implementation, so a delay in implementing the decision. first of all, is that our summary of your witness statement?— of all, is that our summary of your witness statement? yes, i think that is robabl witness statement? yes, i think that is probably the _ witness statement? yes, i think that is probably the earliest _ witness statement? yes, i think that is probably the earliest at _ witness statement? yes, i think that is probably the earliest at which - is probably the earliest at which that decision could have been made. may be _ that decision could have been made. may be a _ that decision could have been made. may be a few days earlier if we had -ot may be a few days earlier if we had got the _ may be a few days earlier if we had got the information. at the time niait— got the information. at the time niall ferguson wrote that we were taking _ niall ferguson wrote that we were taking actions earlier than other european — taking actions earlier than other european countries, relative to where — european countries, relative to where we — european countries, relative to where we were in the pandemic. i think— where we were in the pandemic. i think that — where we were in the pandemic. i think that weekend was, in principle a decision— think that weekend was, in principle a decision that all of these measures would be needed and i think it would _ measures would be needed and i think it would have been sensible to have -ot it would have been sensible to have got on _ it would have been sensible to have got on and — it would have been sensible to have got on and on those as quickly as possible. — got on and on those as quickly as possible, bats, i got on and on those as quickly as possible, bats, lam not an got on and on those as quickly as possible, bats, i am not an expert in how— possible, bats, i am not an expert in how you — possible, bats, i am not an expert in how you implement these things, what the _ in how you implement these things, what the legal requirements are. there _ what the legal requirements are. there were some very significant iegal— there were some very significant legal requirements around that mbappe took another week or ten days for that— mbappe took another week or ten days for that to _ mbappe took another week or ten days for that to in place. so mbappe took another week or ten days for that to in place.— for that to in place. so those of the operational, _ for that to in place. so those of. the operational, implementation for that to in place. so those of- the operational, implementation type matters that we touched on when we were discussing mr warner's evidence. i want to pressure on the period before that, bearing in mind what was understood about nhs overwhelmed, bearing in mind the modelling and so on, do you think that that set of decisions, that understanding that was reached on that weekend, could or should have been reached earlier?— been reached earlier? well, i 'ust said i think — been reached earlier? well, i 'ust said i think itfi been reached earlier? well, i 'ust said i think it could i been reached earlier? well, i 'ust said i think it could have i been reached earlier? well, ijust said i think it could have been - been reached earlier? well, ijust said i think it could have been a i said i think it could have been a few days — said i think it could have been a few days earlier. it's difficult to know. — few days earlier. it's difficult to know. if— few days earlier. it's difficult to know, if you look at the number of cases— know, if you look at the number of cases and — know, if you look at the number of cases and the number of people who even by— cases and the number of people who even by then were beginning to show how serious— even by then were beginning to show how serious this disease could be. the measures themselves are not neutrai. _ the measures themselves are not neutral, they are harmful, so the question— neutral, they are harmful, so the question is— neutral, they are harmful, so the question is around timing. it's around — question is around timing. it's around when you are prepared to take an intervention accepting that you are about — an intervention accepting that you are about to cause definite harm, because _ are about to cause definite harm, because we — are about to cause definite harm, because we knew the interventions will cause — because we knew the interventions will cause harm. we didn't know exactly— will cause harm. we didn't know exactly how many of them would be needed _ exactly how many of them would be needed to— exactly how many of them would be needed to stop the spread of the disease — needed to stop the spread of the disease i— needed to stop the spread of the disease. i think it is difficult. i think— disease. i think it is difficult. i think other witnesses have said this, _ think other witnesses have said this, it — think other witnesses have said this, it is — think other witnesses have said this, it is difficult to concede that— this, it is difficult to concede that that _ this, it is difficult to concede that that could have been much before — that that could have been much before that weekend. maybe a few days, _ before that weekend. maybe a few days, but — before that weekend. maybe a few days, but we have required very distant — days, but we have required very distant -- — days, but we have required very distant —— very different systems. it is distant —— very different systems. it is worth— distant —— very different systems. it is worth doing the thought experiment to move to september, when _ experiment to move to september, when we _ experiment to move to september, when we did know what the consequences of this virus was, we did know— consequences of this virus was, we did know that the measures to restrict— did know that the measures to restrict contacts worked and we did know _ restrict contacts worked and we did know that — restrict contacts worked and we did know that you had to move early. the number _ know that you had to move early. the number of _ know that you had to move early. the number of infections and deaths at every— number of infections and deaths at every stage for subsequent decisions or orders— every stage for subsequent decisions or orders of— every stage for subsequent decisions or orders of magnitude in some cases higher— or orders of magnitude in some cases higher than— or orders of magnitude in some cases higher than that period in march. i think— higher than that period in march. i think in— higher than that period in march. i think in retrospect, the march decision— think in retrospect, the march decision was earlier than some of the later— decision was earlier than some of the later decisions, even with the knowledge that came with that. i think— knowledge that came with that. i think it _ knowledge that came with that. i think it is — knowledge that came with that. i think it is difficult to concede that— think it is difficult to concede that that _ think it is difficult to concede that that decision would have been made _ that that decision would have been made much before that weekend, as i say possibly— made much before that weekend, as i say possibly a few days. we made much before that weekend, as i say possibly a few days.— say possibly a few days. we will be comini on say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to _ say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk— say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk about _ say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk about later- say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk about later in - say possibly a few days. we will be | coming on to talk about later in the year, september, second

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