minister has rightly said that we made mistakes and he regrets that those mistakes happened. wales announces tighter coronavirus restrictions — with the return of social distancing and nightclubs shut from december the 27th. an investigation is under way to determine the cause of a house fire in south london after four children died last night. and in sport... england pick up late wickets giving them some hope on the second day of the second ashes test in adeleide. the liberal democrats have pulled off a political shock in the north shropshire by—election, taking one of the country's safest conservative seats. it follows the resignation of tory mp owen paterson, who was found to have breached parliamentary rules on lobbying. he won the last election — in 2019 — with a majority of nearly 23,000. but the lib dems�* helen morgan took the seat by almost 6,000 votes — making it the seventh biggest by—election swing in modern political history. 0ur regional political editor for the midlands elizabeth glinka looks back at the night cheering and applause tonight, north shropshire have spoken on behalf of the british people, they have said loudly and clearly, borisjohnson, the party is over. your government run on lies and bluster will be held accountable. it will be scrutinised. it will be challenged. and it can and will be defeated. a historic victory for the liberal democrats, overturning a tory majority of nearly 23,000, a swing even bigger than the one that won chesham and amersham. this is a huge result that is going to send shock waves through westminster. helen morgan is the first liberal democrat and the first woman to win in north shropshire and she has given the prime minister a bloody nose. it has been an intense campaign fuelled by accusations of sleaze, christmas parties and covid—19 rebellions. sensing the opportunity, the lib dems flooded the area with activists and have been rewarded. turnout, 46%, 12% higher than a recent by—election in 0ld bexley and sidcup and the majority of almost 6000. north shropshire is a large rural constituency and while the pm was clearly an issue on the doorstep, the lib dems have also tapped into the feeling that this true blue seat has been forgotten by the conservatives. their candidate, neil shastri—hurst fighting a losing battle. we do need to reflect upon the result and i am sure, as a party, we will do that, but, i repeat it again, i'm sure you'll understand that we are going to get a bit of shuteye and i'll go and give my eight week old a bit of a cuddle. the winner was jubilant as she celebrated with the lib dem leader on the telephone, ed davey, isolating at home with covid—19. and then the departure. lots of questions now for the prime minister. the by—election result comes after a turbulent month for the prime minister — with questions about lockdown parties in downing street last year and a rebellion of 100 of his mps this week over covid regulations more now from our political correspondent ben wright who is in westminster. no doubt this is a huge defeat for the tories. it no doubt this is a huge defeat for the tories. , _, , no doubt this is a huge defeat for the tories-— the tories. it is colossal and tops of a ri . id the tories. it is colossal and tops of a rigid week— the tories. it is colossal and tops of a rigid week for _ the tories. it is colossal and tops of a rigid week for boris - the tories. it is colossal and tops of a rigid week for boris johnson. of a rigid week for borisjohnson. the liberal democrats have demolished one of the bigger stores majority in the country, it will have huge reverberations through the parliamentary tory party which has already been reeling after richard headlines about sleaze and dishonesty and hypocrisy. the question is now, what happens? does the discontent that voters in north shropshire have shown on the ballot box translate to some sort of movement here among conservative mps? the conservative party chairman said, yes, sure, the party has had eight to ten but he does not think it is a massive sea change. i completely accept how voters feel fed up given the unique circumstances of this election in particular. so i understand how this began with the resignation of the incumbent mp and the sleaze allegations around that, i also understand how going through it, there were many reports about the conduct of these alleged parties that you are very familiar with. i have heard people's concerns about that and i think it is really important, as a government, we demonstrate that we are focused on getting on with what the people's priorities are, getting on with the job, and that means focusing on things like the booster campaign. faced with this surging 0micron virus, it is absolutely essential the government's focus is laser—like on getting britain boosted. we have heard from some tory mps this morning. the veteran backbencher, long—time critic of borisjohnson said today backbencher, long—time critic of boris johnson said today that backbencher, long—time critic of borisjohnson said today that it backbencher, long—time critic of boris johnson said today that it was two strikes for the prime minister, suggesting his position this morning was more precarious than it had been before the result was cold and it was possible they would be some sort of move by the parliamentary party against the prime minister unless things improve. we also heard from sir charles walker, a senior tory backbencher who said that was ridiculous, nobody within the tory party and parliament wants to see a leadership challenge during the course of a pandemic. i do not think letters will be sent to the committee in great numbers in the coming days, we are heading into christmas, things will cool down naturally, possibly, overthe christmas, things will cool down naturally, possibly, over the next couple of weeks, but i think this is really a worrying moment for tory mps. they have always seen boris johnson as an electoral winner, he can reach parts of the electric other people can't, he was the mayor of london. two years ago he pulled off a historic victory, the biggest majority since 1987. currents and politics can ship dramatically, and if the feel boris johnson is no longer if the feel borisjohnson is no longer an if the feel boris johnson is no longer an electoral if the feel borisjohnson is no longer an electoral winner, becoming a liability, perhaps they will start to think about how long he should remain in number ten. let's speak to the deputy leader of the lib dems daisy cooper — she joins us from north shropshire. congratulations for this victory. how big you win a set for the lib dems, as the tories say it is a unique set of circumstances and often in midterm this happens in a by—election. it often in midterm this happens in a by-election-_ often in midterm this happens in a by-election. it is a huge watershed moment in — by-election. it is a huge watershed moment in british _ by-election. it is a huge watershed moment in british politics. - by-election. it is a huge watershed moment in british politics. it - by-election. it is a huge watershed moment in british politics. it is - moment in british politics. it is not a one off. this is the second by—election win for the liberal democrats this year. the second one here in north shropshire, they are two very different kinds of seats, from two different parts of the country. an overwhelming sense in both victories that lifelong conservative voters feel taken for granted by the conservative party and are not prepared to keep voting for them any more. what and are not prepared to keep voting for them any more.— and are not prepared to keep voting for them any more. what exactly were eo - le for them any more. what exactly were peeple saying — for them any more. what exactly were peeple saying on _ for them any more. what exactly were peeple saying on the _ for them any more. what exactly were people saying on the doorstep? - for them any more. what exactly were people saying on the doorstep? why l people saying on the doorstep? why have people shifted? it is a huge shift because this is one of the safest tory seats traditionally. the number one _ safest tory seats traditionally. tue: number one issue safest tory seats traditionally. tte: number one issue is safest tory seats traditionally. tt2 number one issue is health services. people are furious that the conservative party have driven the health service into the ground, story after story of people waiting for ambulances that do not turn up, unable to access their gps, farmers who feel betrayed by the lack of subsidies and support from the government, and of course there is huge anger over party gate as well and the way that the government has handed that. tt and the way that the government has handed that. , ., and the way that the government has handed that-— handed that. if your priority is to net rid of handed that. if your priority is to get rid of the — handed that. if your priority is to get rid of the conservatives, - handed that. if your priority is to get rid of the conservatives, is l handed that. if your priority is to j get rid of the conservatives, is it not obvious, the obvious answer and implication from this year is that you should have some sort of informal alliance with the labour party otherwise you cannot do it? we have party otherwise you cannot do it? 2 have showed in both by—elections that voters can make up their own minds. there were no pacts in either of these seats, here in north shropshire, the labour party were working very hard over the last couple of weeks in some parts of the constituency, so we think voters can make up their own minds and the lib dems will focus on those areas where we think we can beat the conservatives. let's get some reaction from conservative backbenchers — 0n the today programme this morning — roger gale said "i think the prime minister is in last orders time. two strikes already — one earlier in the vote in the commons — now this.0ne more strike and he's out." sirjohn redwood is the conservative mp for wokingham. do you agree with that? no, i don't. i think the electors in the by—election have sent a clear message that they want the government to improve, raise its game, make various changes, i am not surprised by that, clearly the government has had difficulties against a background of a pandemic and arguments over imposing restraints on people. the liberal democrats very wisely decided to... vaccine passports before the by—election which help them. the overall problem is an economic one. inflation is too high, energy prices are going up too much and the chancellor is imposing tax rises from april which is very unwelcome. you do not think your main problem is the prime minister himself? he has is the prime minister himself? h2 has always been a man who can attract votes and appeal very widely. i think the issue is the performance of the government and it has struggled against the background of the pandemic... who has struggled against the background of the pandemic. . ._ has struggled against the background of the pandemic... who do you blame for that if you — of the pandemic... who do you blame for that if you do _ of the pandemic... who do you blame for that if you do not _ of the pandemic... who do you blame for that if you do not blame _ of the pandemic... who do you blame for that if you do not blame boris - for that if you do not blame boris johnson? we have seen a torrent of concerns in recent weeks.— concerns in recent weeks. mainly blame the _ concerns in recent weeks. mainly blame the pandemic— concerns in recent weeks. mainly blame the pandemic which - concerns in recent weeks. mainly blame the pandemic which has i concerns in recent weeks. mainly - blame the pandemic which has made it very difficult to pursue the optimistic recovery and levelling up an agenda which we were elected on and which the prime minister is very dedicated achieving. if i single out particular department that has made life difficult it would be the treasury, and the tax rises were a very bad idea, the economy has now slowed almost to a halt in the last set of figures after a vigorous recovery at the beginning and the treasury started well by giving help at the time of the original lockdown is, understandably we drew a lot of that support but imposed tax rises and that was a mistake. what that support but imposed tax rises and that was a mistake.— that support but imposed tax rises and that was a mistake. what do you think precisely _ and that was a mistake. what do you think precisely the _ and that was a mistake. what do you think precisely the government - think precisely the government should do in response to this huge defeat? what do you specifically want the government to do now in response? to want the government to do now in resonse? ., , response? to get behind the levellin: response? to get behind the levelling no _ response? to get behind the levelling up and _ response? to get behind the levelling up and the - response? to get behind the | levelling up and the economic recovery agenda, limit the damage of the pandemic measures on the economy, and where the measures are damaging provide of setting support, above all, i would cancel the national insurance tax rise, take vat of domestic fuel, fuel prices are far too vat of domestic fuel, fuel prices are fartoo high vat of domestic fuel, fuel prices are far too high and i was asked the energy department to make sure we produce more of own gas and electricity, we are to import dependent on the policy until recently has been to make us more. high prices and scarcity, tackle the things that are hitting everybody�*s budget around the country. the main theme is energy prices and taxes. what would you say to fellow conservatives who are critical of the prime minister's performance and you have 100% faith in him to lead the tories into the next election? he was a very important part of the attraction of the conservative party in his message in the general election not that long ago. what we need to do is help him and support him, see through the write agenda for britain now which must be optimism, levelling up, economic growth, promotion of more and better paid jobs at home. grow more of our own food instead of our policy that take us out of farming. there are changes he needs to lead and make and i would urge him to do so. thank ou ve and i would urge him to do so. thank you very much- _ and i would urge him to do so. thank you very much. let's _ and i would urge him to do so. thank you very much. let's get _ and i would urge him to do so. thank you very much. let's get more - and i would urge him to do so. thank you very much. let's get more on - you very much. let's get more on this political move. political move. newsnight�*s policy editor lewis goodall is here.... this was a by—election for the history books. let us be clear— north shropshire is, was as true blue as it gets. conservative for as long as britain has truly been a democratic country, indeed before. massively leave voting. older than average population. it is now represented by a liberal democrat. it takes their total in parliament to 13. that liberal democrat, helen morgan, overcame a conservative majority of 23,000— mammoth. this is how she did it— lib dems, leapfrogging from 3rd— they only got 10% of the vote in 2019— to first in 2021 with nearly 50%. and they did it by direct transference to the lib dems from the conservatives — whose vote was down some 25 points or so from 2019 and from the labour party. labour were in second in 2019— had 22% of the vote but there's big transference in 2021, labour voters deciding the lds had the best chance of winning and they were right. turnout was way down. we saw a similar thing in chesham and amersham—another tory safe seat, different part of the country, in buckinghamshire but massive tactical voting against the conservatives. long talked about it's now actually happening. and that translated to a swing of 34%. it's basically coming off the swingometer— lib dems needed 26% it's way past that. it's the 7th biggest by election swing in our modern history, reminiscent of some of those huge anti—tory swings we saw in the 1990s. and that's what will worry a slew of conservative mps in the south of england in particular. the targets where the lib dems are in second place— 91 of them mainly against the conservatives and so this list of tory mps with small majorities against the lib dems will be feeling more vulnerable— one that stands out, esher and walton— the seat of the deputy pm and justice sec dominic raab. tories haven't had to seriously worry about the lib dems since they ingested them and spat out again after the coalition— a revival changes the complexion of our electoral politics. so let's neither overstate nor understate. this is a sensational result, but it's also a by election, they can light up the electoral sky then fizzle and mean little. but what it does mean, is taken together with chesham and amersham the lib dems threaten to be back as a force and that borisjohnson, who has for so long looked invulnerable, to whom nothing would stick, is no longer so and that will change what he can do and his power over his party. thank you very much. the welsh government is to bring back tighter covid restrictions just after christmas , including the closure of all nightclubs, in an effort to slow the spread of the 0micron variant. meanwhile, the chancellor, rishi sunak, has cut short a trip to the united states to hold crisis talks with business leaders whose industries have been hit by cancellations because of the virus. leboo diseko reports. a smaller christmas is a safer christmas — the message today from the welsh first minister, mark drakeford. he's set to introduce a return to tougher covid restrictions after christmas in preparation for a large wave of 0micron infections. there'll be a new two—phase plan combining a mixture of advice for over the christmas period and new regulations to follow. in wales, nightclubs will have to close on december 27th, in offices, the two—metre rule on social distancing returns, and businesses will have to introduce measures such as one—way systems and physical barriers to protect customers and staff. the welsh government says £60 million is being made available for firms affected by the new restrictions. if we get the high levels — very high levels of community transmission that we're anticipating, then it's inevitable that people are going to end up going into hospitals, requiring oxygen, going into icu facilities and potentially dying. elsewhere, these few determined revellers on the streets of london. this area would usually be full of people. but now the atmosphere is subdued. with a new variant spreading, many christmas parties have been cancelled. the prime minister says he's not telling people to cancel events, but instead urging them to exercise caution. thursday saw a record high in cases for a second day in a row — nearly 90,000 were reported. that's almost 10,000 more than the previous day. and the fear is that things could get worse, impacting on businesses. chancellor rishi sunak has cut short a trip to the us for crisis talks with business leaders on how to help the hospitality sector. until spring of next year, most businesses and hospitality industry are only paying a quarter of their normal business rates bill. they are benefiting from a reduced rate of vat all the way through to next spring. and thirdly, there is about quarter of a billion pounds of cash sitting with local authorities that's been provided by government to support those businesses. in scotland, new rules for shops and hospitality venues have come into force to deal with the rise in cases caused by the 0micron variant. people will be asked to limit socialising to three households at a time in the run—up to christmas. there'll be a return to measures to cut down on crowding in shops, and businesses will be legally required to take steps to reduce the spread of covid. as coronavirus cases rise and records continue to be broken, the booster programme also reaches new highs, setting more records for daily top—up doses. but with streets and bars as empty as this, one thing seems clear — for businesses that depend on us going out, the coming weeks are unlikely to feel very festive. as we heard in that report, fom december the 27th, all nightclubs in wales will be forced to close and there will be a requirement for people to work from home where possible. 0ur correspondent tomas morgan has been speaking to the first minister of wales, mark drakeford. well, i think it is the nature of a nightclub that people go there to in order to be up close and personal. and we know that 0micron is particularly likely to lead to super spreader events where people are packed in together in that way. and i think you can distinguish between nightclubs and the way that bars and restaurants operate. no restrictions at the moment on the hospitality industry. could that change? yes, that could change. i want hospitality to reopen after christmas, but i want to do it in a way that gives customers confidence to return to those places. and a short while ago, our wales correspondent... in his press conference, the first minister will tell everyone in wales they need to be cautious between now and christmas, really, a small christmas is better than none at all if people covid—19 that would ruin the day for them. he suggested everyone take a lateral flow test before they meet anyone, one day in between seeing different groups of people, that they go for their vaccinations when they get the call to do so as soon as possible and if the meat people, to try and do that outside if possible. on the 27th restrictions will come back into play, night clubs will be closing. the first minister going further than any of the other home nations leaders by closing an industry again due to the potential threat of the 0micron variant of covid—19. the numbers are lower in wales but there is a concern that it can spread so quickly and with such deep pressure on the nhs already in wales, there is pressure it could overwhelm the nhs. when i spoke to the first minister earlier this morning he did suggest there could be potential for more restrictions to comment on some areas of society, he suggested he would be speaking to the hospitality sector about potential restrictions and he also said on monday he will be meeting the cabinet to discuss whether the need curb the amount of people that can watch sporting events in stadiums for the next few weeks as well and for big events. 0ne weeks as well and for big events. one of the things he was very unhappy about when it came to financial assistance, he has written to westminster twice already just as nicola sturgeon has done asking for extra financial support to give to businesses if additional restrictions are put into place. that has not come just yet. it is clear from what the first minister is saying and what he says today that there is a huge concern with regard to the 0micron variant and there would be no surprise if in the coming weeks we see more restrictions coming into play in wales. as we heard, the chancellor rishi sunak, whose cut short a visit to the united states, is facing calls from hospitality firms and businesses for more support. with me now is michelle 0vens cbe, founder of small business britain thank you forjoining us. what does the government need to do now given we are seeing many small businesses across the country failure. lats we are seeing many small businesses across the country failure.— across the country failure. lots of businesses _ across the country failure. lots of businesses are _ across the country failure. lots of businesses are very _ across the country failure. lots of businesses are very concerned i across the country failure. lots of| businesses are very concerned and across the country failure. lots of. businesses are very concerned and it is not only hospitality, obviously thatis is not only hospitality, obviously that is front—line and making the headlines, but people are working at home and increasingly affects a huge number of sectors across the board. there is not time to wait and see how this plays out. without legal restrictions in place, the businesses are feeling the effects. we have been talking about businesses needing help with cash flow over the winter but that is not going to be enough. rates need to be cut and frozen for all sectors, absolutely, we need to see cash flow measures brought in, things like delay to bounce back loan repayments, 1.5 million small businesses have bounce back loan scheme, delay tax payments, and also, utility and landlords also need to be brought into this. some of the bills from small businesses who have no cash coming in. looking at some of the other big programmes that we had in previous lockdown, local authority grants, welsh government asking westminster for more cash, i think we are going to have to see some emergency grants coming from local authorities to small businesses. and we are going to talk about the farlow scheme coming back. a lot of businesses do not have the ability to pay their staff. health and beauty has been massively hit, hairdressers having 200 cancellations in just massively hit, hairdressers having 200 cancellations injust one massively hit, hairdressers having 200 cancellations in just one week. they cannot keep the doors open if we do not step in and step in soon. all that costs and there has been fierce in many parts of the conservative party about tax rises, is it not wines are to see whether the 0micron variant peaks quickly and businesses can cope for a few weeks and things economically pick up weeks and things economically pick up pretty quickly in the new year? the challenges, small businesses, they do not have it a few weeks. 18 months of really difficult times for small businesses, a lot of them do not have reserves. there is a huge amount of debt in the small business community. the chancellor said in autumn in october that the... put us any better position to recover. keeping businesses going, supporting businesses means we are in a position to help them recover and help them get on her feet after the pandemic ends. that remains the case now. we cannot now stop that support when we have got such a tsunami of challenges coming to small businesses. d0 challenges coming to small businesses.— challenges coming to small businesses. , ., ., businesses. do you still have faith that the chancellor _ businesses. do you still have faith that the chancellor has _ businesses. do you still have faith that the chancellor has his - businesses. do you still have faith that the chancellor has his eye - businesses. do you still have faith that the chancellor has his eye on| that the chancellor has his eye on the ball, he has come back early despite the fact that 0micron has been coming and we have heard about these warnings of so many of cases. it has come so quickly, every time there have been more restrictions in there have been more restrictions in the past, the treasury has announced more support packages, we are optimistic that will happen. across society, huge amount of support for small businesses, people want to rally behind them and support them and hopefully that is going to translate into cash in the next few days. these businesses, 6 million businesses, they employ 17 million people, this is not nice to have, this is fundamental for our economic recovery, we need to keep the business is going to recover in 2022 and get the economy back on its feet. . ~ and get the economy back on its feet. ., ,, , ., very much. now it's time for a look at the weather: we are importing colder air over the next couple of days. the temperatures, towards the weekend, here is howjudy is looking, quite a bit of cloud on the graphics, dense mist and fog in the north of england stretching down to the east. break the spell developing, some gaps in the spell developing, some gaps in the cloud, western wales and south—west england and scotland temperatures getting to ten or 11 celsius. little change overnight, and fog patches, clear skies, low temperatures and slippery surfaces first thing in the morning. tomorrow is similar, there is the headline for the weekend, a lot of cloud, will turn cooler, some gaps in the cloud, sunny spells and parts of scotland, western wales and south—west england, top temperatures ten or 11 celsius. 0n south—west england, top temperatures ten or 11 celsius. on sunday the temperatures crackdown, another cloudy one killing of as we head into next week. hello, this is bbc news. i'm geeta guru—murthy. the headlines. a shock defeat for borisjohnson as the conservatives lose the north shropshire seat they held for nearly 200 years to the liberal democrats. it's the seventh biggest by—election swing in modern political history — but the conservatives insist the defeat was unique because it was caused by the resignation of former mp 0wen paterson over sleaze. wales announces tighter coronavirus restrictions — with the return of social distancing and nightclubs shut from december the 27th. an investigation is under way to determine the cause of a house fire in south london after four children died last night. and in sport, england pick up late wickets giving them some hope on the second day of the second ashes test in adeleide. sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's sarah. round—up, from the bbc cricket round—up, from the bbc is keeping everyone happy my cricket is keeping everyone happy in my house. it's certainly proving a big distraction as to what is going on out there. let's start at with the second ashes test in adelaide, where australia have continued to build a big score on day two, though england have taken wickets to ensure they are not completely out of itjust yet. england did get a breakthrough early on, not long after marnus labershane reached his century. he was trapped lbw by ollie robinson. england skipperjoe root then managed to remove travis head before ben stokes clean bowled cameron green. aussie captain steve smith and alex carey pushed on, looking to post a big first innings score before both fell to james anderson just before tea. they are into the final session now and australia are 435—7. you can follow that across the bbc. with another five premier league games called off ahead of this weekend, the debate has intensified on what to do about the impact of covid on football. manchester united, brentford, watford, norwich and leicester all have covid outbreaks amongst theirsquads, leading to their games being cancelled. that means that there have been nine premier league games called off in the space of a week. well, liverpool did play last night, despite suffering from a covid outbreak. curtisjones, virgil van dijk and fabinho all missed their game with newcastle. it didn't stop them from coming from behind to beat newcastle 3—1 though. trent alexander—arnold with the pick of the goals. as it stands their game, with spurs is still set to go ahead on sunday. managerjurgen klopp is one of those who's arguing against the idea of the premier league taking firebreak and pausing games until boxing day. i don't see the massive benefit in it, because we come back and it's still the same. if the virus would be gone, then i would be first who stops and goes home and waits until it's gone. but that's probably not the case. but where's the real benefit of it? i don't know it. but there are... so now we can... well, we hope we can play. honestly, we hope we can play and we hope tottenham can play, and all these kinds of things, and we play on sunday. chelsea, who also have covid cases in their squad, and a depleted everton side also managed to play last night. mason mount put his side in front in the second half, but everton youngster jarrad branthwaite clinched his first premier league goal to equalise for everton. meanwhile their game at the weekend with leicester is one of the games that has been lost because of covid. elsewhere, the chelsea women's boss emma hayes blamed anxiety and worry over covid for her side's below par performance as they were knocked out of the champions league last night. they had only needed a point to progress as group winners but were beaten 4—0 against wolfburg to end their champions league hopes. the result also means that they haven't won in three matches since winning the fa cup. max verstappen finally got his hands on the formula one world championship trophy last night at the fia prize giving ceremony. lewis hamilton didn't attend the gala. verstappen was asked if he felt sorry for hamilton after the controversial end to sunday's final race. hamilton's mercedes team saying yesterday that their driver had been "robbed" of the title and left "disillusioned" with the sport. i don't feel sorry, but i can understand, of course, that it can be very painful. but at the end of the day that's racing as well. you know, you have tojust keep fighting until the end, and you know that in racing anything can happen. and, i mean, he also won a championship like that. so, yeah, i think he can understand as well. and the four—time women's darts champion lisa ashton is still waiting for her first victory at the pdc world darts championship. the lancashire rose was making her third appearance at alexandra palace but, up against the world number 53 ron meulenkamp, she never quite got going. the man from the netherlands won by 3—0. elsewhere, two former champions met as gary anderson beat adrian lewis. that's all the sport for now. australia 4115—7 in their first innings. let's return now to the north shropshire by—election — where the liberal democrats scored a surprise victory by taking one of the country's safest conservative seats. winner helen morgan overturned a tory majority of almost 23,000, declaring that the "party is over" for the pm. she won by nearly 6,000 votes — that's a swing of 34% from conservative to the lib dems — the seventh biggest by election swing since the war. in her victory speech helen morgan accused the prime minister of presiding over a nightly soap opera of "calamity and chaos". tonight the people of north shropshire have spoken on behalf of the british people. they said loudly and clearly, borisjohnson, the party is over. your government, run on lies and bluster, will be held accountable. it will be scrutinised, it will be challenged and it can and will be defeated. across the country, liberal democrats are taking the conservatives and winning. in rural shropshire today, just like in buckinghamshire injune, we have won the support of people who have always voted conservative and people who have always opposed them. thousands of lifelong conservative voters, dismayed by borisjohnson's lack of decency and fed up with being taken for granted. and thousands of lifelong labour voters, choosing to lend their votes to the candidate who can defeat the conservatives. people who believe that our politics should be about creating a better country for us all, not unlike the soap opera of calamity and chaos. all of them casting their ballots for the liberal democrats. and let me say specifically to all those labour supporters who lent their votes today, thank you. you have shown tonight that together we can defeat the conservatives. not with deals behind closed doors, but with common sense at the ballot box. the winning candidate helen morgan mp for the lib dems. sirjohn curtice is a political analyst and professor of politics at strathclyde university. thank you forjoining us. for everyone watching, in simple terms, how big a swing, how big a victory for the lib dems is this? this how big a swing, how big a victory for the lib dems is this?— for the lib dems is this? this is not uuite for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an _ for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an unprecedented - for the lib dems is this? this is i not quite an unprecedented swing for the lib dems is this? this is - not quite an unprecedented swing but it's a very spectacular one and it's one that underlines the message of the pulse of the last week that the conservatives have suffered quite significant electoral damage in the wake of party gate etc —— polls. a swing of 34% and there is the other one by—election in which the swing from the lib dems has been bigger, that was in christchurch back in 1993. 31 point drop in the conservative vote. we've not seen drops of that scale in conservative support sincejohn drops of that scale in conservative support since john major suffered drops of that scale in conservative support sincejohn major suffered a trio of them between 1992 and 1997, which is not a very happy precedent for the conservatives. the other remarkable thing is this has happened in a constituency which was not natural lib dems territory. back in chesham and amersham in the summer, that was a constituency where one thought liberal democrats might do it, constituency voted remain and we already know from 2019 that the tories had been losing some ground in that constituency. this, however, is a constituency that had a 60% leave vote, so not natural lib dems territory. certainly one thing that perhaps all the parties have learnt in the wake of this is that perhaps for the first time since 2010 when they went into coalition with the conservatives, the lib dems are once again a party of by—election protest, particularly for conservative voters. they have come back in rather a spectacular fashion in this by—election. t5 come back in rather a spectacular fashion in this by-election. is that because voters _ fashion in this by-election. is that because voters realise _ fashion in this by-election. is that because voters realise that - fashion in this by-election. is that because voters realise that rather| because voters realise that rather than voting labour, the way to unseat the tories if that was their priority was to go with the lib dems? and what about the conservative 0liver dowden saying this is a one—off, a mid—term blues? that is sadly true. part the reason the reason the lib dems won is the 12 point drop in the labour vote, without that they wouldn't have won, given that a lot of those votes went in the liberal democrats direction. in a constituency that has never had a labour mp, it was perhaps easier for labour voters to switch to the lib dems than elsewhere. as far as 0liver dowden's defence is concerned, sure, it's difficult for governments in by—elections. even in old bexley, a 13 point drop in support but there is a big difference between that and a 31 point drop in support. this is actually the second biggest fall in conservative support in any by—election where there wasn't some unusual intervention by a third party candidate. this isn'tjust a normal bit of by—election protest, this is a substantial piece of by—election protest. basically the conservative party has lost between six and eight points in the national opinion polls, since the affair that started this saga which ended up with this by—election which was the 0wen paterson affair. that's a pretty substantial loss in a short space of time and it's something that should worry the conservative party. in particular what they need to realise, a lot of the coalition that got borisjohnson to power in 2019 was leave voters who hadn't necessarily voted for the conservatives. they don't necessarily have the sinews of traditional loyalty that will keep them voting conservative in difficult times. if those voters begin to doubt the ethics and competence of this government, and that's perhaps what the polls are suggesting, based leave voters in particular may defect in considerable numbers and indeed that is already the message of opinion polls. is already the message of opinion olls. ~ ., ., is already the message of opinion olls. . ., ., ,., is already the message of opinion olls. ~ . ., ,, ., ., is already the message of opinion polls. what do you read into this more widely? — polls. what do you read into this more widely? how— polls. what do you read into this more widely? how many - polls. what do you read into this more widely? how many tory i polls. what do you read into this i more widely? how many tory seats would be at risk if you are able to read into that? we've got local elections coming up. how worried should tory mps be?— elections coming up. how worried should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter— should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter snow— should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter snow lets _ should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter snow lets have - should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter snow lets have a - should tory mps be? well, if we were to do the peter snow lets have a bit i to do the peter snow lets have a bit of fun and apply this to the next general election, the conservatives would be left with three seats. of course, that's not going to happen but it's an indication of the scale. two things for the conservatives to worry about. first, but leave vote is potentially relatively fragile. second, there is a risk the lib dems are now back in business and perhaps their ability to eat away at some vital conservative seats will have been strengthened. but we should also recognise that the future of our politics is probably intimately tied up with the future of the pandemic, which is unknowable. but what is true is this government at the moment is in a sense betting. that boosting boosters will be enough to deal with it and the nhs won't be overwhelmed. i guess everyone hates thatjudgment will prove right but if it were to be proved wrong, the conservatives could find this a difficult position to recover from could find this a difficult position to recoverfrom —— everyone hopes thatjudgment will prove right. party gate combined with doubts over their competence in a public health crisis, that might not be a recoverable position. joining me now is sianjones who was a special advisor in david cameron's government — she is now a political consultant with sec newgate. what's your take on this huge defeat? ~ ~ , what's your take on this huge defeat? ~ ~ _ ., , defeat? well, i think by any measure it's a defeat? well, i think by any measure its a pretty — defeat? well, i think by any measure it's a pretty terrible _ defeat? well, i think by any measure it's a pretty terrible result _ defeat? well, i think by any measure it's a pretty terrible result for - it's a pretty terrible result for the government and for the prime minister. it's obvious the christmas party scandal has played into the result hugely. if you compare with the old bexley and sidcup by—election a few weeks ago which the conservatives held onto with a reduced majority compared to the catastrophic defeat we've seen here, there's clearly a lot of lessons to be learned and things done inside number 10 in terms of how the government is operating and in particular how number 10 is being run. t5 particular how number 10 is being run. , . particular how number 10 is being run, , ., , ., particular how number 10 is being run. , ., , ., ., , , run. is it a question of shaking up the staff or _ run. is it a question of shaking up the staff or looking _ run. is it a question of shaking up the staff or looking at _ run. is it a question of shaking up the staff or looking at who - run. is it a question of shaking up the staff or looking at who leads. the staff or looking at who leads the staff or looking at who leads the government?— the staff or looking at who leads the government? well, in terms of the government? well, in terms of the prime minister's _ the government? well, in terms of the prime minister's leadership, i. the prime minister's leadership, i think at the moment one of his saving graces is that there aren't that many of this alternative candidates with the same political reach he has. asjohn curticejust said, he's shown the ability to reach across political divides particularly into some of those seats in the north of the country where the conservatives didn't historically have a presence. in terms of trying to find an alternative leader and who has those political communication skills, let's not forget that boris johnson is probably one of the best political communicators in public life. that's going to be quite a tall order, particularly when we are in the middle of a public health crisis. �* , ., ., crisis. are you saying that even if we had this _ crisis. are you saying that even if we had this massive _ crisis. are you saying that even if we had this massive swing, - crisis. are you saying that even if we had this massive swing, a - crisis. are you saying that even if. we had this massive swing, a huge vote of lack of confidence by the public, but the tories can't find anybody better than borisjohnson? well, i think clearly there are going to be some discussions and particular going into christmas now which is an opportunity, in some ways an opportunity for the government to regroup but also for conservative mps to have a long, hard think about the future of the party. i think that they will be aware that borisjohnson has delivered them an enormous majority and been very successful for them electorally. tt’s and been very successful for them electorally— electorally. it's one thing that he won on the _ electorally. it's one thing that he won on the basis _ electorally. it's one thing that he won on the basis of— electorally. it's one thing that he won on the basis of brexit, - electorally. it's one thing that he won on the basis of brexit, the l won on the basis of brexit, the evidence seems to be that issue is now in the past and people are worried about competence, honesty, ethics as sirjohn curtice was saying. from your own sense of conservatives and the public to speak to now, are people sure that borisjohnson is still the right person to lead the tories and do you think that increasingly people will be thinking about? t think that increasingly people will be thinking about?— think that increasingly people will be thinking about? i think he's in a difficult place. _ be thinking about? i think he's in a difficult place, he _ be thinking about? i think he's in a difficult place, he can't _ be thinking about? i think he's in a difficult place, he can't deny - be thinking about? i think he's in a difficult place, he can't deny that. l difficult place, he can't deny that. this is probably one of the biggest crises in his leadership so far. i'm not underplaying that. i think that it's a question of the timing and how things develop with the virus in the coming weeks. i think there will be a lot of discussions going on internally within the conservative party now and about who can take over. potentially, he may have an opportunity and a chance to regroup after christmas perhaps. but i think potentially the clock will be ticking in terms of demonstrating that they can get a grip on what's going on and turn things around and start delivering on that transformational economic agenda they promised in terms of levelling up. and of course, dealing properly with the pandemic. i think there's a lot of challenges coming up in the next few weeks so i don't think it's going to be an easy time.— going to be an easy time. we've heard from _ going to be an easy time. we've heard from oliver— going to be an easy time. we've heard from oliver dowden - going to be an easy time. we've heard from oliver dowden that i going to be an easy time. we've i heard from oliver dowden that he going to be an easy time. we've - heard from oliver dowden that he is confident the cabinet secretary investigation into the party allegations will vindicate the prime minister's assertion that rules went broken. is he prejudging the outcome? —— rules went pro. you broken. is he prejudging the outcome? -- rules went pro. you can talk until you're — outcome? -- rules went pro. you can talk until you're blue _ outcome? -- rules went pro. you can talk until you're blue in _ outcome? -- rules went pro. you can talk until you're blue in the _ outcome? -- rules went pro. you can talk until you're blue in the face - talk until you're blue in the face about whether the rules were followed or not and we saw this with the mps expenses scandal. it's not a question of the rules, it's more how it looks and how it's perceived and regardless of what this investigation says, if it indicates the prime minister it's probably going to be perceived as a whitewash in some ways because when people were trying to abide by the rules and saying goodbye over face time, people in ten are having parties, i don't think it's going to be seen as acceptable. i think it's the tone it has set off this really difficult time for people.— four children have died in a house fire in south london. firefighters gave first aid at the scene, in sutton, but the children — two sets of twin boys — who were aged three and four — later died in hospital. 0ur reporter louisa pilbeam has the latest. we know that four children that died in the terraced house in the middle of the row behind me, their next of kin have been informed. we know that the fire broke out just before seven o'clock last night, and 60 firefighters battled to save those children. they were taken to hospital and they were pronounced dead. now, i've been hearing from neighbours about what these children were like. they've told me that they were happy children, they were sweet—natured, they were popular and well—known in this area. and one story was that they liked to stroke one of the neighbour's dogs here on the road. we've also heard about the impact that this has been having on the emergency services. the london fire commissioner andy roe said the deaths had left everyone numb with profound sadness. the cause of the fire is not yet known and it will be investigated. warnings about the new 0micron variant have prompted many people to cancel christmas dinners and parties — and that's having a devastating effect on hospitality venues across the uk. the chancellor has cut short a visit to the us for crisis talks with businesses leaders, who've been hit by cancellations. they're demanding more finanical support from government. our business correspondent ben thompson has been at a venue in london bridge for us this morning. i just wanted to show you our vantage point here at london bridge, because the station probably tells you the story of the rest of the city. that's because that place should be packed at rush hour this morning, but it's not. a lot of people choosing to work from home. and that has huge consequences for towns and city centres across the country. and for hospitality firms in particular, they are feeling about at a time when they should be making a lot of money in this lucrative christmas period. just to run you through the numbers. hospitality firms make a quarter of all their annual profits at this time of year before those leaner months ofjanuary, february and march when we may not be out quite as much. but the problem is there's been a lot of cancellations. 3 million bookings cancelled last week alone, because people are choosing to stay at home rather than come out and maybe jeopardise any christmas plans. that comes at a huge price for the industry. £297 million in lost trade in the run—up to christmas, which will be felt keenly after a difficult year for many business. sam, who runs a bar in birmingham, explained the implications for his business and his staff. it is extremely nervous times. under any normal circumstances, we probably wouldn't necessarily be that fearful, but with the previous closure of 1a months and then six months under heavy restrictions, the business is not in a position to continue with such heavy loss of trade. the vast majority of the hospitality sector suffers with the same nerves at the moment. we're going into the christmas period, times that we are due to be spending with our own families, and we are sitting worrying about our businesses and whether or not they will come through this next challenge that has been given to us. that's sam in birmingham. let me introduce you to kate nicholls, chief executive of uk hospitality. good morning. how bad is it forfirms right now? it is very bad, it's a rapidly deteriorating situation changing daily, but in the last ten days we have seen 50% of bookings go, a third of revenues lost over the last ten days in the rest of the uk, it's double that in central london, so particularly acute in central london. if it carries on, we estimate hospitality could lose £3—£4 billion this december. the criticism that's been levelled at the government is that this is a lockdown in everything but name. is that fair? there is a disconnect between the political policy, the economic reality, and it's caused by consumer confidence which has just crashed. people are literally staying away in their droves, and that's where it's slipping on a daily basis. this has happened rapidly, and we need urgent support put in place to compensate these businesses as if it was a lockdown. we need to get the economic reality, the political policy aligned. you have been in meetings with government ministers on behalf of hospitality firms. what do they tell you about whether there will be support forthcoming? they are in listening mode at the moment. we have had discussions with the treasury ministers, chancellor, business secretary on a daily basis, to keep them abreast of the situation and to start talking about the support that's needed. they're listening, and said they will go away and think about what they need to do to get businesses through a difficult 4—6 weeks and crucially sustain them through january and february when we do not get much revenue, even in good times those are lean periods. what is the reality, if there is no extra support and extra help, what does it mean for firms like this? without extra help, we will see many more hospitality businesses go to the wall. we lost one in ten in the covid crisis, we could see as many again fail in the next year, particularly with the first quarter being difficult to get through. you will see tens of thousands of businesses fail and hundreds of thousands ofjobs lost. a lot of people will say there's not an endless money pit. there is not money forthcoming for a lot of things, the government has to prioritise where it will target help. does it have to be hospitality? i think if you're asking hospitality to bear a disproportionate burden and effectively closing them down and restricting trading at a crucial time of year, you need to make sure you have support. the government would say they are not doing that, it's people that are choosing to do it. people are choosing to do it, but the economic reality is the same. either you let these businesses go to the wall, you let this important economic sector fail, and have a slower economic recovery when we come out of 0micron in the new year, and you have fewer taxes coming through. let's not forget, hospitality is the third largest employer, it generates £40 billion year in taxes, that funds vital public services. the economy needs us to be fighting fit and firing on all cylinders. there is no economic recovery unless hospitality recovers. how confident are you that you will get it? we're talking about maybe a cut in vat, extra relief on rent and rates. are you confident you will get it? there are three key things. local authorities dohave cash grants. there's discretionary rate relief that could be got out the doors now. that needs to be topped up in london which are among places disproportionately hit. extending the rate of vat, the 12.5%, gives those businesses the confidence to underpin investment and to get through the difficult period. and business rates, to avoid bills going out that hit cash flow. we've asked for all of those things, ministers have taken them away to see what they can do. kate, thank you. kate nicholls, chief executive of uk hospitality there. i want to show you around this place, because it is well decked out for christmas. plenty of christmas trees, plenty of tables, and not many customers. they will be really hoping that maybe this place, because it is open—air, they will be able to get some customers through the doors before christmas. but for all hospitality businesses now, it is a tough time of year, one that should be their most lucrative. it is proving to be very difficult indeed. i want to update you on the tragic news four children have died after a house fire in sutton yesterday. police are saying the 27—year—old woman has been arrested on suspicion of child neglect and remains in police custody. four children died in that fire, reportedly two sets of twins aged three and four. very sad news and we'll keep you updated online. we are back in a few minutes. now it's time for a look at the weather, here's 0wain. 0ver over the weekend we have high pressure nearby which remains with us over the next couple of days and into next week. this morning it's been quite misty and murky, weather watchers snapping away. we've had some lovely sunrise pictures but pretty grey and murky. low cloud in places as well. where we see this today, it could be quite reluctant today, it could be quite reluctant to clear so the mist and fog potentially hanging around. this is the big picture. an area of high pressure, the white lines around it, these are the isobars. where they are closer will see more of a breeze across what south—western parts of the uk and the far north of scotland. for most, a settled story. the mist and fog is slow to clear in places. hints of brightness and sunny spells developing. especially across south—western parts of england, western wales and up towards some parts of the north of england and scotland. where we see clear skies, we've seen some frost, temperatures will get to about 9—10 as our highs today. three tonight, very little change. the high pressure still above us, still driving the weather and bringing a delivery of settled conditions across much of the uk. clear skies where we see that temperature sliding away close to freezing and the return of mist and fog patches. not a bad headline for the weekend, mostly dry with a sedative cloud around. cranking down the temperatures as we cast an eye on the coming days. a familiar story, clear skies across scotland, the north of england and south forjust seeing some brightness. 0ften north of england and south forjust seeing some brightness. often quite cloudy elsewhere. cold of course where we see the more prolonged clear skies. a quick look at sunday, this is how it's working. the high pressure is slowly sliding away. it remains in charge but we see a bit more of a breeze coming in from the north—east. cool a coastal parts, temperatures 7—8, potentially a bit higher. at this stage we start to import a colder air mass behind. the blue colours will start trickling in as we look towards the early and middle part of this coming week. you can see in the outlook what that's doing. temperatures will slide away as we cast an eye on the end of the week, potentially turning a bit less settled. for now, dry and settled. that's the forecast. stay safe. see you soon. this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. a shock defeat for uk prime minister borisjohnson as the conservatives lose the north shropshire seat they held for nearly 200 years to the liberal democrats. north shropshire have spoken on behalf of the british people, they have said loudly and clearly, borisjohnson, the party is over. your government run on lies and bluster will be held accountable. it will be scrutinised. it will be challenged. and it can and will be defeated. it's the seventh biggest by—election swing in modern political history — but the conservatives insist the defeat was unique because it was caused by the resignation of former mp 0wen paterson over sleaze. completely appreciate voters' frustrations in relation to that. they were angry and they gave us a kicking over it and the prime