the winning candidate helen morgan mp for the lib dems. sirjohn curtice is a political analyst and professor of politics at strathclyde university. thank you forjoining us. for everyone watching, in simple terms, how big a swing, how big a victory for the lib dems is this? this how big a swing, how big a victory for the lib dems is this? for the lib dems is this? this is not uuite for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an for the lib dems is this? this is not quite an unprecedented - for the lib dems is this? this is i not quite an unprecedented swing for the lib dems is this? this is - not quite an unprecedented swing but it s a very spectacular one and it s one that underlines the message of the pulse of the last week that the conservatives have suffered quite significant electoral damage in the wake of party gate etc polls. a swing of 34% and there is the other one by election in which the swing from the lib dems has been bigger, that was in christchurch back in 1993. 31