runoff today? he can but let s look at each side s advantages. first of all the polls. these are the polls that have been conducted since the end of november. warnock up by five, up by 4, 3, 2, 3. real clear politics average 3.5. he has led in every poll and every poll has been inside the margin of error. this indicates a small but persistent lead for warnock. the turnout in the early voting, 1.9 million is way down from november but it is a pretty significant sum and let s just put it in perspective. if today s vote is a million plus, and let s assume that warnock s lead is ten points in the early vote, then walker has to win today s vote by 20 points in order to eke out a victory. here is his advantage. there have been 11 runoffs, georgia is this odd state that
just a handful of races are going to determine which party will control the senate. cnn s senior data reporter harry enton is here to run the numbers. where do we stand on the most pivotal races for senate? i feel we ve done this every weekend. we re getting closer and closer to election day and it seems like things are getting tighter and tighter and tighter. so look, this is the democrats road to keeping 50 senate seats. they likely must win three of these four within margin of error races. the easiest looks like arizona. mark kelly, incumbent democrat, up by 3 points. that s within the margin of error. look how close pennsylvania and georgia are. 1-point races. fetterman up, warnock up by a point, way too close to call. nevada is tied. at this point georgia would be the 50th senate seat if the
ads from republicans in pennsylvania will be focused on the economy. bill: i think you are right about that. georgia and herschel walker. here is how the pollster summarizes walker s challenge. he has to convince independents and wayward republicans he is up to the task. how would you interpret that, josh? yeah, the biggest challenge for walker is to show that he is ready for political prime time and not fumble away the very strong opportunity republicans have to win this senate seat. it is a close race in the fox poll. senator warnock up by a few points. there clearly is a pathway for walker to win over undecided voters, many of whom, according to the poll, don t like the president s performance and they are dissatisfied with the state of the country. one thing you see in a lot of polls early on, there are a lot of undecided voters that end up