Atmospheric and oceanic indicators so far, predict an evolving El Nino till July 2023 and converting to full fledged El Nino event in the later months. El Nino conditions in the recent past like 2009, 2014, 2015 & 2018 spoiled the monsoon season. The corrupt rainfall, if any, is bound to impact adversely Kharif crop yield and the agriculture sector as a whole.
The model reliability is low at this point of time, the precursors are all hinting at an evolving El Nino during the monsoon months. The process may as well start, earlier than expected.
El Nino pattern does not repeat itself verbatim. However, in general, El Nino events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and quite often reach their maximum intensity during Oct-Feb.
El Nino episodes, irrespective of 'evolving' or 'standard', usually result in spoiling Indian Monsoon. Rainfall over South Asia and Southeast Asia covering India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and West Pacific ring countries bear the risk of deficient rains during monsoon season.