The month of October is an overlapping one, with southwest monsoon retreating from central and southern parts and northeast monsoon ingressing south peninsula. At times, difficult to draw distinct line between the two.
Districts in Tamil Nadu like Theni, Madurai, Dindigul, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi and Kanyakumari run the risk of heavy showers. Munnar, Idukki, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala also stand chance of intense rains over next 2 days.
Northeast Monsoon is likely to enter into an active phase commencing today and lasting for one week. Winter monsoon activity is invariably in bursts of 4-6 days and quiets thereafter for a similar duration. November is the rainiest month of the season.
A trough will extend from this cyclonic circulation to coastal Andhra Pradesh. There will be a gradual increase in rain activities in Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka as well as over Kerala between November 2nd and 4th.
We do not expect anything significant in the rest of the days of October. Most rains will take place in southern parts and Northeast Monsoon will make an appearance by the fag end of the month. Light rains may begin day after tomorrow as well. Moderate showers likely around October 31 only.