by less than half a percentage point. it was a ss t landslide. it was a l mandate. w itas was also 40 years ago. and in some ways seems even longer than that. since reagan the positivistre puregu tonight, we will examine today . republican party on the eve of yet anotheblicr presidential election. what does the party believe, what is the republican position on foreign policy, cultural issues. how if the party has changed, where is it going? california and new york, will be popular vote be in play againag for a nominee or does winninaig require running the electoral college gauntlets. we are joined tonight by four people who have worked in or around politics for decades. they are very likely to have different views on some issues and may prioritize issuesiz differently. they maye sues represent peopley differensentt orthodoxies withie party but they have come together to discuss policy and politics in the upcoming race for president. as we begin tonight we start with a quoten
making inroads with folks that are not historically aligned with the g.o.p. and if you do believe it what do you attribut. it to?al very much so. i saw l a recent poll that saids 27% of black voters were considering voting fort the donald j. trump, andd i think 20%, the election is over. joe biden can gois back and pacg his bags in his dungeon in delaware right now. in 2020, donald j. trump won 19% of black men. 1 out of 5 black guys voted for donald trump. those are big numbers and 13% of 2016 among black women and one from 4% to nine. overall it was 12% which is double what romney got. there is an increasing sense that black voters, what have democrats done for us lately? settled civil rightss, that was 50-50 years ago. i see many black parents saying cayon i take my kid to a school where the kie d will learn
in his insider segment has more than one pollster in the room tonight. we ll lock the door until you get the news. we have bill and fred yang, who is a democratic pollsters. bill, what did the polls get right and wrong? well, what they got right was the shape and the contour of this race. what they got wrong was the margins. so for example, in all of our polling we showed trump ahead, about what romney got. that is a net ten points extra. that is 3.4% more of the whole electorate. so then the other changes that trump did much better tonight with white women college. he lost them, but by single digits. in most of the public polling he has been losing by ten or 20
allegations. his own words on that tape so far to the surprise, i think, of many pundits, have not set him back as much as many believe. but here s the reality, tamron. he was supposed to, his map to 270 was supposed to be 206. the 206 electoral votes that romney got, plus, you know, and we re talking about, that s including north carolina and up and still battling out. plus, trying to get pennsylvania, ohio, florida. ohio, he s been doing much better than anticipating blue collar workers, an older state, less diverse. pennsylvania, not going to happen. you have the philly area and he is indeed hemorrhaging with college educated whites, female and male. in florida, the hispanic vote, and hillary clinton expanding now in these republican, traditional republican states. arizona being one of them. alaska. texas. georgia. so i think this. rick, let me bring you in.
people, many of whom are working very hard to become citizens, that s why it s i don t know any republican campaigning on tearing families apart. there s much more support for stopping the flow of illegal immigration than tying that together with permanent legal status. the bottom line is there s no consensus in the republican party when it comes to immigration reform. there is a faction that feels very strongly against illegal immigration. there s a faction, that includes very powerful groups like the chamber of commerce, that includes, you know, a lot of evangelicals and christian voters that do up is port immigration reform. and also, i said election night 2012, mitt romney self-depart ported from the white house. unless donald trump and ted cruz find a way to make up those number, they can say bye-bye to 1600 pennsylvania avenue right now. they re going to wish they had the hispanic vote that romney got.