in this middle phase, the west must help ukraine strengthen its position. and while there are real limits to how much the ukrainians can absorb, washington must read double their efforts. they need to help ukraine break the russian blockade. people have focused on the collapse of the russian economy. which will probably shrink by 11% this year. ukraine s economy is likely to contract by a staggering 45% and 2022. unless the country can export its grain out of its black seaports, it could feet years to come. most likely, this middle phase of the war will last for a while. neither russian or ukraine has the capacity to win decisively. and neither is likely to resend easily. this favors russia. it has taken control of much of the done bass.
the pandemic was an incredible shift in the american housing market. you suddenly could work two or three hours away from the cities that you might have lived in, a lot of people move from expensive coastal cities to the south and to the west and so in some ways, that s a real structural shift that s still playing out. it might be more like the adoption of the automobile in the post-world war ii, created the suburbs, pushed people out to california. i think that some of those shifts are going to last for another year, two years, maybe five years, and so you won t see the sort of collapse in the housing market that you might see in asset markets, except in very, very frothy areas. good to talk you, thank you so much. biden goes to saudi arabia, and we re going to ask what he will do there. it s a lovely day today