Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Captioning performed by vitac there are some well known differences in the current economic environment compared to past environments that make the yield curve a little less of an indicator. The probabilities are pretty high. If you take the unjusted measure, and the other financial variabilities, a year from now, the Second Quarter of 2020, the probability of recession is roughly twothirds. If i make an adjustment, its still high, its not far away. The shaded bars represent recessions. Every time this measure goes over 40 , weve had a recession. And theres a lot of more fundamental reasons to be a little nervous about whats going on out there and why recession risks are high. If you look globally, a number of Major Economies are already in recession or pretty close. Germany, italy, the uk, brexit is complicating things for them. Mexico, brazil, singapore, its small but most open economy on
Home despite record complaints and waiting times. As the former head of ofsted has said, its increasingly difficult to have the hard conversations in the workplace that are needed, but thats what hmrc must have. Plus its been a difficult day for the royal mail, as it has announced a reduced service for second class post. This comes amidst news revelations about amidst gb news revelations about counterfeit stamps. State of the nafion counterfeit stamps. State of the nation starts now. Ill also be joined by an ebullient panel this evening, former home Office Special adviser Claire Pearsall and the political commentator kai willsher. As always, as you know, i want to hear from you. Its a crucial part of the programme. Email me at gb news. But now its time for the news of the day with sophia wenzler. Jacob thank you. Im sophia wenzler your top story this houn wenzler your top story this hour. A new poll suggests labour could sweep to victory with more than 400 seats at the next election ,
Do for ordinary brits . All that do for ordinary brits . All that to come. But before a packed show tonight, its your news with sophia wenzler. Thanks, tom. Good evening. Im sophia wenzler in the gb newsroom. A new poll suggests labour could sweep to victory with more than 400 seats at the next election, leaving the tories with just 155. Yougov is predicting a landslide for sir keir starmer, with the conservatives projected to win even less seats than a previous poll conducted in january. And poll conducted in january. And another change of leader may be off the cards, with other mps including penny mordaunt, Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees Mogg all trailing their labour challengers. Shadow foreign challengers. Shadow foreign secretary david lammy says the government should suspend arms sales to israel if its clear that International Law has been breached. Its after british aid workers john chapman, James Henderson and james kirby were killed when their convoy was hit by an israeli ai
Aid. In to border to get civilians out and aid. In to British Border to get civilians out and aid. In to british teenagers are aid. In to british teenagers are being held hostage by hamas in gaza. The sisters noya and yahel are from kibbutz berri, where their mother, leanne, was murdered in the 7th of october. Attack their father, eli, is also missing. Also missing. Brussels has increased its Terror Threat to the highest level after two people were shot dead and one person wounded. Belgian authorities calling it a terrorist attack. Terrorist attack. And back in the uk , well and back in the uk, well ang and back in the uk, well bring you the latest on thursdays upcoming tamworth by election. And Katherine Forster will be live from westminster for us rishi sunak faces more by election battles this thursday in mid bedfordshire. Thats Nadine Dorries seat and also in tamworth Chris Pinchers seat. He was the chap who was booted out of government over groping allegations. Ultimately led to t
The cold front is starting to intensify things, im starting to track a few embedded heavier pockets. You can see in the north bay, we could have this heavier cell hold through petaluma through 11 46 tonight. Heavier rainfall through lucas valley 11 37. San francisco will start to pick up with rainfall here off to the south, its hit or miss, showers developing in the santa clara valley. Likely moving through 11 47 tonight as well. Things pick up for tomorrow morning. Who has the worst of it coming up at 11 19. You can always track the rain as it moves across the bay area, all you need to do is download our nbc bay area app. Its accessible to you 24 7. I think it was his first rodeo to tell you the truth. It wasnt his, this 75yearold lafayette man tangled with a 26yearold demanding money. The thief got in his home posing as a construction worker. He got the east bay man out with a shotgun. What happened next is the stuff movies are made of. Cheryl, i understand you spoke to the victim hi