Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Captioning performed by vitac there are some well known differences in the current economic environment compared to past environments that make the yield curve a little less of an indicator. The probabilities are pretty high. If you take the unjusted measure, and the other financial variabilities, a year from now, the Second Quarter of 2020, the probability of recession is roughly twothirds. If i make an adjustment, its still high, its not far away. The shaded bars represent recessions. Every time this measure goes over 40 , weve had a recession. And theres a lot of more fundamental reasons to be a little nervous about whats going on out there and why recession risks are high. If you look globally, a number of Major Economies are already in recession or pretty close. Germany, italy, the uk, brexit is complicating things for them. Mexico, brazil, singapore, its small but most open economy on