turns out. my sources tell me republican turnout, they think, in this primary is going to be up. the problem they are seeing is democrats are going to be up even more. so, republicans are very nervous about this. i think looking back to 2016, now, i think arizona every four years is over hyped as democrats get it done and then they don t. what a lot of republicans were telling me, leading up to the november election in 16 is they thought hillary clinton had a shot to win. once the comey letter came out, the bottom dropped out. there s a reason for democrats to be optimistic. if mcsally wins, indications are she is going to win, she s got a good chance to defeat because she s won a tough battle house district and hugged trump just enough. i ll say this, the fact of the matter, i think arizona is going to shape up to be a big disappointment for republicans like west virginia and alabama,
george w. bush. both are political commentators. scott, if i could begin with you, these candidates embracing trump, is that a danger during the general? think it was a danger not to support the president in a republican primary. you can t run against trump and expect to win a republican primary. i think mcsally handled it right, which is true. she is the only one of the three candidates that has a demonstrable voting record of support for donald trump, and that was wise to do that. she also felt the momentum of the race late and she started running ads against kyrsten sinema because she could feel the momentum moving her way and she wanted to show republican voters she has what it takes to win a battleground state. maria, kyrsten sinema, the democratic nominee there, what are the chances for your party come november? look, i think if mcsally wins, and everybody seems to
is poised to do well. we live in the age of surprises and politics. we will see one. one thing to keep in mind, arizona is a heavy early voting, heavy mail in voting state. the vast majority of the ballots were probably already cast before senator mccain s passing. something to keep in mind but also there was this, there s this issue hanging over there. the governor will have to pick a replacement for john mccain. more independent side or more from the trumpish side of the party. even if mcsally does win tonight, add up the total for ward and arpaio, the two candidates linked with trump here. if that gets north of 50%, that s making a real strong statement. even if mcsally wins. that would make a real strong statement about where the heart of the arizona republican party
accelerated among young people, minorities, et cetera. and frankly, the president has driven the republican party s numbers with those groups of people lower. so the question is going to be, okay, does that actually add up to enough that there s going to be sufficient democratic wave to roll over what is left of the republican party? or is that construct totally not the case and president trump s supporters actually do represent a significant majority perhaps of voters in the state. so that s really what s going to be at stage and what we ll see play out. i do think it will be a better test if mcsally wins. it will be an even test of a establishment style republican who, yes, embraces the republican but has many more traditional qualities than it would be if we see arpaio or ward win. regardless, all of those national phenomenon are at play here in arizona. kacie hunt in arizona. and steve kornacki at the big
mcsally stands. so to answer your overall question, it would be an extraordinary shock if she didn t. i would say and it would throw this entire race into turmoil. it s already going to be a close race, even if mcsally wins. but if arpaio or ward were to win, there s definitely a feeling that that would throw the general election of the democrats. we should note here, in this case, you ve got sort of one kind of one candidate sort of favored to the establishment, two challengers, more associated with trumpism. that was sort of the opposite in alabama, right, where you had the one established you had the sort of two different establishment characters in roy moore. so the path mere works in mcsally s favor. but to give a sense of just how intensely extreme the fidelity to donald trump has been in the primary, i want to play the little clip, the interview you had with joe arpaio today about the passing of john mccain. take a listen. do you think john mccain was a patriot? yes.