Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Test. Captioning performed by vitac there are some well known differences in the current economic environment compared to past environments that make the yield curve a little less of an indicator. The probabilities are pretty high. If you take the unjusted measure, and the other financial variabilities, a year from now, the Second Quarter of 2020, the probability of recession is roughly twothirds. If i make an adjustment, its still high, its not far away. The shaded bars represent recessions. Every time this measure goes over 40 , weve had a recession. And theres a lot of more fundamental reasons to be a little nervous about whats going on out there and why recession risks are high. If you look globally, a number of Major Economies are already in recession or pretty close. Germany, italy, the uk, brexit is complicating things for them. Mexico, brazil, singapore, its small but most open economy on
Hour look at these large megacap Communication Services and tech stocks for where Shopping List items might be for any buys on the dips with that well send things out to see j man thats going to be a harder objective to achieve, if anything a stronger dollar will become a bigger pain for multinationals sectors like technology, industrials and Consumer Staples that derive in some cases 40 to 50 of their sales overseas. If the dollar continues to strengthen it will make American Products less attractive to customers outside the u. S. , especially in emerging markets where the consumer tends to be more price sensitive it also impacts profitability for these companies when they convert foreign sales back to dollars. Now, a handful of companies in the Consumer Staples space that make everything from shampoo to cereal have outperformed the Broader Market because of the dividend yield they offer. Kimberlyclark with a yield of 3 , General Mills at 3. 6 , but with Central Banks around the world
Joining us now is the close markets the Global Market strategist at nova scotia nov esco. Where are you now on that call given that a lot of people are starting to say, it is a bull market and we may have to live with that and perhaps we can look elsewhere. Are you looking elsewhere are you looking elsewhere . The market is broadening and moving into value valuable parts of the market so it is not just the very narrow market that you saw in march or may, you are getting a sign from markets that this is healthier and there is more participants and so far, the earnings for the Value Oriented Companies have been good . Jon is he getting less bad or is the outlook for the markets improving . Things are moderating and that is what you would expect in this part of the cycle but what involved but a lot of investors missed is that the market priced this last year. 11 months ago, we were down ninth 9 in 13 months so that was a market that had already assessed what was likely to be a weak econom
significantly decreases illegal immigration, and we sabotage that, that is inconsistent with what we told our voters we would do. what s with all the maneuvering, are you trying to torpedo any deal? that makes me question your intentions. maybe it s like the issue of fund-raising. that s republican congressman dan crenshaw of texas with more criticism for members of his own party who are trying to tank a bipartisan border deal before it has even been released. we ll have the latest from capitol hill on where that legislation stands. plus, a legal development in donald trump s favor. his federal election interference case is no longer on the court calender here in washington. we ll explain what s behind that delay. and also ahead president biden hits the campaign trail with a stop in a key swing state seeking another high profile endorsement. good morning and welcome to way too early on this friday, february 2nd, ground-hog day. one of the greatest movies of all-time,
morning joe starts right now. all of a sudden, i aced the cognitive test doesn t knee what s going on. do you plan to use pac money to pay some of the penalties in the new york defamation and fraud cases? i don t understand. what? are you thinking of potentially trying to use campaign money to pay some of those penalties that you might incur what penalties? in the new york fraud case, the defamation case. i didn t do anything wrong. i mean, that s been proven as far as i m concerned. yeah, but as far as the court is concerned, you did do something wrong and it ll cost you around $83 million. i see what he s doing, though. i know exactly what he is up to. he s like the mob boss who pretended to be crazy by wandering around the town in a bathrobe. he is vinny the chin, is who he is. good morning. welcome to morning joe. it is i m sorry. are we not coming in? q s is the best music guy anywhere, right? by far. i know where you re going. what s toda