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Recovery blues Covid’s second wave will have an economic, fiscal and welfare impact The economic fallout of India’s second Covid surge cannot be underestimated. This is despite the fact that an extended national lockdown like last year’s, when Q1 GDP tanked 23.9 per cent, is virtually off the table. Localised lockdowns, night curfews, and curbs on assembly and movement will leave their mark, more so if they are implemented in the 10 Covid intensive States which happen to account for 65 per cent of GDP, as analysts have pointed out. The Monetary Policy Committee in its latest meeting has observed: “The renewed jump in Covid-19 infections. could dampen the demand for contact-intensive services, restrain growth impulses and prolong the return to normalcy.” While the Reserve Bank has not revised its growth forecast of 10.5 per cent for this fiscal, other observers have done so. In its latest assessment, SBI has shaved off 0.6 percentage points from its earlier estimate of 11

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