November is the number which remains high in historical comparisons. The consumer is not falling off a cliff and that is important because as we look into 2020, it is the consumer which will be doing the legwork and driving prices. David you are our chief economist. It seems like different data in different directions. The university of Michigan Consumer was high. It seems like it is up and down. Can you get a clear picture of where the u. S. Economy is right now. Tom our view is we are looking at a slow down, but not a meltdown. The key way to look at this is through the lens of the job data. A year ago, even at the beginning of 2019, we were looking at a u. S. Economy creating a solid 200,000 new jobs a month. 2019,e are at the end of the run rate has come down considerably, we are closer to 100,000 than 200,000 now, but that is still enough job creation to keep unemployment at a 50 year low, to keep wage growth at a solid 3 or even higher. With that Unemployment Rate in that pace of
Earlier. Still up quite substantially. Applied materials, essentially an earnings story, but having an impact more broadly only semis as well. Guy in europe this friday afternoon, european stocks broadly higher on the trade narratives. You can certainly see that in the sector breakdown. Volume is a little light. The pound rising, but the dollar on the back foot this afternoon. Again, the trade narrative feeding into that fx channel. When it comes to the bond market, a little bit of a selloff. We are seeing yields getting a little bit of a lift when it comes to the german tenyear. This week, we are actually moving lower on yields. Bonds in europe, at least at the core, beginning a little but of traction. Trade evidently the narrative this friday afternoon in europe and in the morning in the united states. Stocks rising. White house Economic Advisor larry kudlow saying earlier that the u. S. And china talk everyday , and is now down to the short strokes when it comes to getting that deal
Investors investing in china, but also a broader issue of these financial flows between the u. S. And china and how you addressed those when they involve an economic rival, a Rising Economic rival like china. I think we have seen these qualified denial from the u. S. Treasury and peter navarro, but also confirmation that this conversation is taking place inside the white house. Kevin what are the expectations for next meets meeting with the chinese for next weeks meeting with the chinese vice premier . Thethe explanation expectation are they continue talking. We should be clear that we are not close to a grand bargain. I think the real subject of conversation right now is how do you keep a temporary truce or some kind of peace in the world . One thing we will be looking for in these october 10 and 11th talks is what the u. S. Announces in terms of tariffs due to go up october 15. Shery tonight china celebrates the 70th anniversary of the rule of the communist party. Given the political
Oil story in just a bit as well. Guy weve barely gone anywhere when it comes to stocks. Over three months, up by 1. 36 . Bond yields getting absolutely crushed. We see prices jump. We see equity markets under pressure. It was a real what cup call for the market. After that wakeup call, we kind of gone back to where we were. What does Fourth Quarter bring . Number last years Fourth Quarter . December, incredibly rocky. This is the picture we have in europe. Stoxx 600 trading at session highs. We are up by around 0. 3 . We have the holidays. We have china closed the rest of the week. Volume is abysmal today. Eurodollar also under pressure. We see data out of germany on the cpi front. You had a whole bunch of other factors. The dollar continues to make gains. You continue to see the dollar index pushing higher as well. If you want to watch the chancellor of the exchequer in the u. K. , on his feet in manchester right now, that is on your bloomberg. 1400 ing at trading at 1491. What a quar
, next election. If he sees any possibility, he will name a new Prime Minister and ask them to form a government and seek a confidence vote in the parliament. The story behind the scenes is that the Democratic Party and the five stars, which used to be enemies until a few hours ago, are now discussing and awaiting the possibility to form an alternative majority. Essentially wanted the next election to get consensus he has now, he is close to 40 , may be left out of the game. David how ironic. Mr. Salvini may have overplayed his hand. Thank you to Tommaso Ebhardt in milan. Now we go to washington. Lets start with President Trump. What we know about his Approval Ratings . Are people starting to get nervous about the economy . I think people are starting to get a little nervous about the economy. Trumps Approval Rating has stayed exactly the same since the day he was elected. About 43 of americans approve of the job he is doing. That should be in itself a warning sign about his reelection