And what i know here, if we look at the democratic races, a great deal of their competitive races have occurred when the candidate is leading in National Polls readers for the election. So right now doesnt run. Ted kennedy in 1972 and again in 1970s pics three years before the primaries he was the leading candidate. He didnt run. Gary hart dropped out in 1997. Mario cuomo didnt run in 1992. Hillary clinton didnt run in 2004. And each of those democratic years wound up being more competitive. We see a whole lot less agreement among party insiders. Im not showing it in this paper, but the endorsement data for these elections is a lot less consensus among democrats. They are dividing their support among different candidates, but also importantly much more of the Democratic Party establishment spits out. They dont make an endorsement at all. We see that in the republican side of it in 2008 and 2012. For republicans in those years mitt romney, for example, was the consensus pick of the esta
Next, a discussion about National Political party nominations, scandal, and comebacks, as well as rules changes for the 2016 election. This is part of the state of the parties conference. It runs just under two hours. We have four papers to be presented. We hope you will have great interest in what they present. More than anything else, we hope you will have Great Questions because this group of individuals have not only studied what has been, but are giving us perspective of what is to come. I think youll find their perspectives very interesting. About party a paper power and the causal effects of endorsements. Seth is at the university of denver and eric is at the public posse institute of california. I will shut up and let them talk. Whats were here presenting this on behalf of our other co authors. We are trying to come up with a measurement of the impact of a Party Endorsement in a primary, which is traditionally a tricky thing to measure. Study toing a fun case do this. This is t
Nominations i dont have my line in here but you only have a few that are not competitive. Versus incumbent renominations that rarely are these things competitive. Betweennd difference these indicators, democrats versus republicans. There is a distinct party difference for this timeframe. Campaigns contents are bit more competitive overall. Republican campaigns typically are not as competitive. Intraparty trends. This is perhaps the most fascinating thing as far as looking ahead toward 2016 and beyond. Haveratic nominations become somewhat less competitive over time. This is suggesting democratic a couple of things. One, the Democratic Party is a little more unified. It also could mean perspective candidates are little more strategic about calculating their chances and not running, which is also a possibility. Republican nominations in contrast, basically competitive in the 1970s. Ray nagin reagan comes along and you have a great deal of unity in the party and that maybe fragmenting in
Thats all ahead on tonights newshour. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by the Election Commission in egypt confirmed today the new constitution won nearly 64 of the vote in a referendum. The panel also reported turnout was just a third of the countrys 52 million registered voters. President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood backed the draft constitution. Opponents warned it paves the way for islamic rule and curbs on civil liberties. The six persian gulf arab nations demanded an end to what they called iranian interference. They issued a Statement Today at the end of the Gulf Cooperation Councils annual summit. The statement gave no details. The six u. S. Allied countries, also called for Swift International action to end the bloodshed in syria. In central asia, a military plane crashed early this morning in kazakhstan killing 27 people including the countrys head of border security. The russianmade aircraft went down near a southern city. The dead also incl
San diego north into l. A. County. Southern california is in store for another day of high tides and flooding. The socalled king tides are formed by the alignment of the sun, moon and earth. This happens once every 30 years. Former South African president Nelson Mandela is said to be making progress as he battles a lung infection. It started with trash talking and ended with gunfire. Surveillance cameras capture a shooting wounding two people. All that okay. We need the jaws of life. Final in philadelphia, 3413 cincinnati. The Houston Rockets latest effort to sing is pretty embarrassing. And dradle i shall how do i even know youre a nun . You dont have the thing on. I know, i know but i have my medal on. Is that your nun badge . Thats my nun badge. Barbara walters most fascinating person of the year is disgraced cia former director david petraeus. I was thinking if this guy was a little less fascinating, hed probably still have his job. Captioning funded by cbs welcome to welcome to cb