people of color. the big unknown in this race is joe biden. if he gets in, it changes the dynamic of the race. he is none of those things, by the way, that you just ticked off. exactly. he is none of those things but there s a reservoir of goodwill for joe bide nen the party that no one else has and the sense that he can do the job from day one. if he gets out of the race it s a free for all. it doesn t favor the people we ve been talking about for a long time. you bring up joe biden. cnn s iowa polling of likely caucusgoers, joe biden is at the top of the hooe heap there with 32% of likely caucusgoers saying yes, he s our first choice. as we look at this, nia, and everything we ve gamed out so far, not a shock that elizabeth warren is making this announcement but there is some surprise to the timing. and how much of that, nia, is her trying to get out ahead of the rest of the folks, to try to
back to you, erica. we ll take it, mj. thank you. as you said, welcome to 2020 before we even hit 2019. joining us now, former congressman charlie dent, joe lockhart and cnn political reporter nia-malika henderson. charlie dent, i want to start with you. as we look at this, perhaps it is not a shock that elizabeth warren is making this announcement today. in terms of timing, is this a smart move for her? i can t tell you if it s a smart move or not but this is a total gift to president trump. this is the candidate he clearly wants. my view is that democrats want a new generation of leadership. that s always been my view. they re looking at someone like ka kamala harris, cory booker or beto o rourke. i ve been critical of my party for these social intolerance but
joe biden still gets really strong numbers. he has that name recognition. people can identify with him early on the programs. joe biden is the biggest threat in terms of a challenger for donald trump. would you agree? i would agree. probably the most formidable candidate against donald trump. at the same time probably the least likely to be nominated any of those candidates. the big risk that democrats run right now is that they nominate somebody very far left like an elizabeth warren. if the republican party stays as pro trump as it is, i see the likelihood of a very serious independent or third party movement that will be center based. i think that much of the political center in this country feels very much left out of the conversation. the bases of the political parties, hard bases of the political parties seem to be driving the narratives as to who will get nominated and there s a backbone in the center of the country looking for something
make a little noise? i think that s everything. i think joe is also right if you look back at past announcements they are about where we are now. bill richardson, for instance, was in january of 2007. obama was like in february of 2007. so it s not that anything is happening super early this time. if you re elizabeth warren, clearly you re looking at a lot of these polls that haven t been good news for her. biden leading in iowa, for instance. that should be elizabeth warren country, in many ways. she s the populist. she s the fire brand. she s certainly well known. she probably has really high name i.d., had more name incht i.d. than beto o rourke did. people want someone new. six in ten democrats, independent sort of leaning democrats want someone new. that poll also showed that
in ideological purity and more interested in who can beat the guy in there? that s exponentially more important with donald trump. you can t overstatement how much democrats despise donald trump, what he stands for, who he is and what he has done. if you look at the initial skirmishing we re not starting earlier than anyone else started. this is right on time. there are candidates already in. a whole line of them getting ready to go in. in the initial skirmishing, my biggest fear is that somehow this was going to become an ideological purity test. with elizabeth warren and bernie sanders, there hasn t been the enthusiasm that you might expect. you look at someone like beto o rourke, who hasn t even decided if he s getting in. there s real excitement around that. look at the midterms. people want fresh faces, women,