As of july 1, the longest Economic Cycle in modern history. You have to pick up the camp, either we are headed toward nearterm recession, or we are in a super cycle. Gershon, which one . Gershon always hard to say in the shortterm. Some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for a 3 10 year a year ago. This is the only industry where you can be wrong again and again and people still want to know your view. It is really fascinating. The reality is, what europe has taught us is there is no lower bound. In other words, if equities are weak, if the economy is weak, we can go a lot lower, even negative. On the other hand, im not sure we should believe this will be the equilibrium rate of inflation. And inflation will only be 1. 5 over the next 10 years. Rates probably should be higher in the longer run. Jonathan lisa . Lisa it depends on how you interpret bob micheles call. He said rates would go to zero over some period of time, which is probably true. Jonathan a mul
We are tennessee tremendous reflation we are going to see tremendous reflation by gold. On the other side we have some saying 10year yield are going to zero. I dont want to think of a world of zero interest rates. 0 for the u. S. Treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. We have had the recovery, its coming to an end. If you believe the Business Cycle is coming to an end, that call makes sense. Now the Central Banks are falling into line and cutting rates. When we get this polarization of use, it tend to be close to regime changes. Something is going to give. That is the journey we are on until Something Different happens. Jonathan joining us to discuss is lisa hornsby, gershon distenfeld, and noelle corum. A big call from bob michele. A multiyear call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. Your thoughts . Noelle if you think recession is kind of looming, but that is not our base case. We are not seeing signs of a recession. We dont expect the fed to be o
2. 5 and maybe more. 1. 5 for the 10 year. Someone saying we will see tremendous reinflation over the next 10 years, buy gold. And on the other side, and have someone saying, 10year yields are going to zero. I dont want to think of a world of zero interest rates. That is where we are heading over the next couple years. 0 for the u. S. Treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. We have had the recovery, its coming to an end. If you believe that the Business Cycle is coming to an end, that call makes sense. Now the Central Banks are falling into line and cutting rates, one after another. When we start to get this polarization of views, it tend to be close to regime changes. I am not saying we will get there right away. Something is going to give. That is the journey we are on until Something Different happens. Jonathan joining us to discuss lisa hornsby from schroders, Gershon Distenfeld from alliancebernstein, and noelle from invesco, over in atlanta. It is a big call from
The Halftime Report with scott wapner starts right now. Welcome, good to have you with us on this friday, our Investment Committee at the desk today, josh brown, stephanie link, jim lebenthal, the chief Investment Officer at Boston Private Wealth is here, liz young is bny melons director of market strategy, anastasia from Jpmorgan Private Bank and lets begin with the broadcom story. Its one heck of a buzz kill today. Price targets cut across the board, lots of stocks in that space are down shortly, not jus broadcom, amd, lam research, micron, you pick it in the chips and its getting hit pretty hard the chips have two things working against them the first is theyre like one of the last true global cyclical sectors that exists that have any real market cap and any real size so you see a lot of people express their views about the Global Economy in those equities and obviously, the tariffs are an issue because of how much cross border work needs to be done in order for chips to be manufac
A georgia grand jury indicts former President Trump charging him with felony and racketeering the defendants engage in a criminal racketeering enterprise on the record, ron desantis talks to cnbc exclusively that bob iger should drop his lawsuit and talks tough on china i view them as an adversary you have to deal with a lot of people that is not the direction we need to go now, good morning. There is a lot going on in markets this morning ill highlight the top stories we have been talking about in the last hour or so. First, lets start with china. China Central Bank Cut the onemonth loan rate by 10 percentage points. Earlier, the Chinese Central Bank did cut the key rate in the oneyear rate to another set of weak Economic Data coming in and Russia Central Bank hike to 12 during the emergency meeting after a plunge in the ruble. The central bank warned pressure is building in the economy and that is the reason they did go for the aggressive rate hike 350 basis points from russia throug