Is decelerating. It is consistent with some slowing. The economy is slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. We are slowly pressing on the break here. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not like a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Definitely not falling off a cliff. Not enough to do anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss here in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. I want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change for you, oksana, given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak ism number there, but an ontrack jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been in
Report. A bit of a mixed bag. It is consistent with some slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pays. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Not falling off a cliff. Not much of anything to me. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a rate cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Around theoining me table to discuss in a new york are our guests. I want to discuss what changed this week. Nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. Did have some week numbers there, but an on track jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been on this trend for a while, where revisions have been up. It is a weird environment where we are in, where an employment continues to be strong, and the probability of a fed cut winds down slightly, from around 90 to 75 or so. The fed
It is consistent with some slowing. The economy is slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. We are slowly pressing on the break here. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not like a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Definitely not falling off a cliff. Not enough to do anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss here in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. I want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change for you, oksana, given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak ism number there, but an ontrack jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been in this trend for a
Employment growth decelerating. It is consistent with some slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. Pressing on the break. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Not falling off a cliff. Not enough to do anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed rate cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. I want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change this week given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak numbers there, but an ontrack jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been on this trend for a while, where revisions have been up.
On the other side we have some saying 10year yield are going to zero. I dont want to think of a world of zero interest rates. 0 for the u. S. Treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. We have had the recovery, its coming to an end. If you believe the Business Cycle is coming to an end, that call makes sense. Now the Central Banks are falling into line and cutting rates. When we get this polarization of use, it tend to be close to regime changes. Something is going to give. That is the journey we are on until Something Different happens. Jonathan joining us to discuss is lisa hornsby, gershon distenfeld, and noelle corum. A big call from bob michele. A multiyearr call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. Your thoughts . Noelle that makes sense if you think recession is kind of lumen ooming, but that is not our base case. We are not seeing signs of a recession. We dont expect the fed to be on a fullblown cutting cycle. We are only going to see two this ye