Interesting to see the 2021 look forwards. All we have is good conversation and a look at the tea leaves. Lisa is going to talk about jobless claims and all the rest of it, but i want to look at the granularity. Is a pandemic ago stock, and there is the reality which i believe you mentioned yesterday. I cant remember which property you mentioned it on. You know what . Retail is really struggling. Jonathan this is the story. A stock like macys has done pretty well over the past week, but that is the difference between the ketchup trade the catchup trade and a durable trade. I think that is the story for hours. T couple of we got to get through the next couple of months. Tom i mean, it is a comedy. But this is not funny. In south australia, you can now not walk your dog because of pandemic fears. Talk ofes of the macro the Bloomberg New Economy Forum and the realities that lisa has been talking about here day by day. That gets your attention. Jonathan and initial jobless claims will get
Stories. Two turkey just crushed. Story, which you and lisa both mentioned, particularly since oppressor, bonds are going nassar gas bonds are going nowhere. The yield curve control is here. Outside of that, the equity markets are doing well. Materials surging off the march low not really disrupted with what has happened with big tech. That is just one segment of the equity market that has faced severe headwinds over the last couple of weeks. It is a big growth story. Tom a mystery enter friday and growth forward. Im completely distracted. You are going to have to save me. We need an update. Garrison sergio over the English Channel right now. I have got a much bigger announcement. Drumroll. I think we have got a birthday today. She kept it very quiet. It is a happy birthday for lisa abramowicz. Lisa thank you. Another pound is too strong to expect a gift from you. Jon i will do my best. Isa a pair of socks great depending on what this Consumer Sentiment survey is coming up at 10 00 sho
Average stock down 6 . It has been one portion of this market which is absolutely ripped through 2020. Lisa are we at the phase of recovery where you can go into more cyclicals, given the fact that you saw a bit of an increase in treasury yields . Treasury yields coming back down today. We are going to be getting data, though, i date 30. One thing i am at 8 30. One thing i am watching is the jobless claims, still expected to come in at over one million americans in the past week, even though it is expected to come down. A. M. Aen 40 5 10 45 a. M. Conference from Speaker Pelosi on the road to nowhere. Each week that this goes on is more pain. Selling 26, u. S. Billion of 30 year notes. Strong demand all around, which has given investors some comfort that the bid isnt going to dry out. Jonathan starting with equities, equity futures this morning looking like this on the s p 500, against a bond market that is doing ok. On thefutures unchanged s p 500. In the market, in the bond market, a
That is putting the fed in a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. The fed will not make a policy mistake if everything is fine. If the data does not get worse. Which people are forecasting. You could have a second half where the economy is bouncing back. The second half we should see that fade. The fed is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. They should not continue that Balance Sheet expansion. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . The fed playbook is to cut big and fast and signal qe if there is weakness. Thats a big risk for the market. Jonathan joining me around the table is greg staples, lisa hornby, and ken monahan. Lets talk about it, ken. Your thoughts on that, is it or isnt it qe . Ken i know mr. Kashkari is trying to throw cold water on the idea that it is not, but even being in minneapolis, he doesnt have enough water to throw on it to convince the market it is not. I think the market call i
That kind of liquidity will be hard to fight. That is putting the fed in a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. The fed will not make a policy mistake if everything is fine. If the data does not get worse. Which people are forecasting. You could have an economy where the second half is bouncing back. The second half we should see that fade. The fed is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. They should not continue that Balance Sheet expansion. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . The fed playbook is to cut big and fast and signal qe if there is weakness. Thats a big risk for the market. Jonathan joining me around the table is greg staples, lisa hornby, and ken monahan. Your thoughts on that, ken . Is it or isnt it qe . Ken i know mr. Kashkari is trying to throw cold water on the idea that it is not, but even being in minneapolis, he doesnt have enough water to throw it to convince the market it is not.