Coronavirus induced volatility plus quarterback buoyed by a string of super tuesday victories for the former Vice President. Is the contender for the democratic valuation former investor jeff ubben, never seen anything like this and says why it makes Value Investing impossible the fed announced a 0. 5 rate cut. Stocks looking to recoup most of yesterdays losses which includes a drop in the dow of 785 points jim, once that tenyear broke 1 , wow. Could you not take your eyes off of this price action look, i think that i was struck by the rate cuts. I didnt like jay powell you cant say listen, the fundamentalless as are sound bue need a gigantic rate cut that means the fundamentals arent sound i didnt know we were that bad off. People either way we are bad off or powell knows something and to see that you get a Biden Victory and maybe things bounce back a little is encouraging and mostly because its just about the tenyear the tenyear drops to 9. 8, then everything you see on your screen t
I think its going to be significant, 46,000 or 48,000 but you have the supply chain for gm, all of the construction around gm, so youve got a lot of ancillary folks that have been out of work and manufacturing isnt necessarily what drives the economy, its the consumer primarily and we are a service economy, and even though the numbers might be good, its the manufacturing thats really going tamp down here. Neil john, one one of the thins that im hearing to daniels point, not just 48 to 50,000gm striking workers impacting this but up to 200,000 more in ancillary business suppliers and the rest. What do you think of that . I think the estimate that roughly 75,000 to 80,000 jobs being temporarily lost because of gm strike. Neil okay, so if thats the case and they factored that in, is this just a oneoff, what do you think . A lot of reasons it can be a oneoff, results of slowdown at boeing, census workers who were temporarily hired and maybe are coming off the rolls, a lot of noise in the n
A bit of a mixed bag. Employment growth decelerating. It is consistent with some slowing. The economy is slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. We are slowly pressing on the brake here. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Definitely falling off a cliff. The market is not doing anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed rate cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. Guys, i want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change for you, oksana, this week, given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak numbers there, but an ontrack jobs number a
Is decelerating. It is consistent with some slowing. The economy is slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pace. We are slowly pressing on the break here. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not like a flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Definitely not falling off a cliff. Not enough to do anything. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a fed cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss here in new york are our guests, oksana aranov, lisa hornby, and Gershon Distenfeld. I want to begin with what changed this week for all three of you. Did anything change for you, oksana, given the data we had . Oksana nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. We did have some weak ism number there, but an ontrack jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been in
Report. A bit of a mixed bag. It is consistent with some slowing. The manufacturing slowdown is continuing. But it is happening at a very gradual pays. It is not a falling out of bed moment. It is not flashing red, the economy is falling off a cliff number to me. Not falling off a cliff. Not much of anything to me. The market is priced in for an october rate cut. We have to pencil in a rate cut in october. For those looking for a decisive message, a deterministic one, they did not get it. Around theoining me table to discuss in a new york are our guests. I want to discuss what changed this week. Nothing has really changed on the economic backdrop. Did have some week numbers there, but an on track jobs number and an upward revision for august. We have been on this trend for a while, where revisions have been up. It is a weird environment where we are in, where an employment continues to be strong, and the probability of a fed cut winds down slightly, from around 90 to 75 or so. The fed