welcome to the programme. we start with the stark warning from the united nations that the next five years will almost certainly be the hottest since records began. they say it is now more likely than not that a key target to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees will be breached with far reaching repercussions. let s break all this down for you. according to this report there is now a 66% chance that we will pass the 1.5 degrees threshold for at least a year. three years ago, scientists estimated there was less than a 20% chance of that happening. there is a 98% chance of seeing the warmest year on record before 2027. arctic heating will likely be three times higher than the global average. i have been speaking to the vice chair of the ipcc s working group, and she explained to me the scale of the issues the planet is facing. the roblem issues the planet is facing. the problem is issues the planet is facing. the problem is that issues the planet is facing. tue
corner. as we go through the day and to the south west, showery outbreaks of rain arriving. the wind direction is still easterly and it looks likely the best of the sunshine will be across the south east corner. we might see 19 or 20 degrees, still very nice indeed. as we move out of thursday into friday, that low pressure is going to push its way steadily northwards taking rain with it. plenty of showers tucking in behind. friday will see some persistent rain moving through north east scotland, sunny spells and scattered showers across england and wales, some of them heavy and thundery. but there will still be some sunshine and warmth so temperatures are likely to peak at around 19. thanks, louise. and that s bbc news at ten. there s more analysis of the day s main stories on newsnight with kirsty wark, which isjust getting underway on bbc two. so who gave the order? if ukraine did launch the drones, what was the calculation? and what will putin do next? we ll be speaking to
ask her about is the government s new small boats policy, and that s something you re going to be talking about on friday because you re going to head off to paris to see president macron. yes, there is an anglo french summit at the elysee palace, the home of the french president, hosted by emmanuel macron. the prime minister is going on friday morning and a whole load of ministers are going as well. there will be more than a dozen ministers if you add up the ministers on each side, gathering for a one day get together. it ll be about half an hour chat, i would have thought, bilateral, as they are known diplomatically, between the two leaders. lots on the agenda. ukraine, obviously, central. there s a sense that with the northern ireland brexit deal that the relationship is a bit better than it might otherwise have been. quite a lot in personal terms of similarity between the two leaders. both former finance ministers, both former investment bankers. current nerves. ner