the southern battleground states. these are arizona, florida, north carolina, what do we see there? we see biden up in arizona by two, up in florida a very important swing state by two, north carolina all the democrats are trailing trump from two to four, but again, warren doing the worst out of any of the democrats tied in arizona, down by four in florida. look at that difference. biden up by two, but warren down by four in florida and in north carolina again, all trailing. now you might be asking yourself is this name recognition? joe biden being so well known versus elizabeth warren and iowa, keep this in mind, this is a state that s been trending to the right, biden is trailing by one, warren is trailing by six. look at the buttigieg number, he is the one that is the least well known and doing slightly better than warren. it s not just about name recognition. really interesting stuff. i know that you dive in even beyond just the top line numbers and are you looking at particular
we saw nationwide, hillary clinton beating donald trump 48-46. but in the six closest states that trump won that helped determine the electoral college, arizona, florida, michigan, north carolina, pennsylvania, wisconsin, trump won by a point. so let s take a look at these new battleground polls and compare them to what we re seeing nationally. we see a trend line consistent with what happened in 2016. nationwide, if you take a look at the average poll for 2020 from october, we see biden up by eight, sanders up by six, warren up by five. but take a look at these six closest states again that trump won in 2016, according to new polls from the new york times siena college. if you average across the six, what did you see, we see biden plus one, we see sanders actually losing to trump by one, and we see warren trailing trump by three points. the president is leading warren in those six battleground states by three points. let s break it down a little bit further in terms of those battleg
battlegrounds? in michigan, which of course is a very key state, we see biden up by one, see sanders leading by three, but we see donald trump beating elizabeth warren by four percentage points. that s a big difference between those different candidates. what about in pennsylvania. obviously, scranton, joe, normal joe, all that stuff. joe biden leading in pennsylvania by one point over donald trump. sanders, trailing by a point. we see elizabeth warren trailing donald trump by two points. how about in wisconsin, another key state. hillary clinton didn t visit wisconsin. what do we see? we see joe biden up by two points, a tie with bernie sanders. but warren again trailing by two percentage points. this is something consistent, where warren is running behind joe biden. what about in these southern battlegrounds? what do we see there? well, arizona, florida, north carolina. in arizona, we see biden up by two, but we see trump leading bernie sanders by four points, a
warren up, i can show you a poll. if you want a poll that shows biden up. if you want a poll that shows bernie coming back, i can show you a poll. and it s also if you want to show that a poll that shows peter buttigieg is in the first tier, top tier, i can show you that. and i think that s just kind of where we are. we still have a little bit more ways to go. and i think of polls that really matter are the state polls. a lot of undecided in those polls. people haven t made their minds up. and i think there s just a lot more to watch and to see where we re going here. i agree. i mean, i think what you see is playing out is that this is a long process. right. people are still taking their time to decide who it is that they like, who it is that they see working for, which i think is also important. you see kamala on the ground in iowa. she really has poured a lot of resources. she s moving there. she s moving there, yeah. and i believe she tops the list as in terms of numbe
being doubled up by biden in this poll. by the way, bernie sanders only a few points behind. what the heck is going on here? two polls with very different results. when that happens the thing to do is look at the totality of it. here s another way to look at this. we re going to show you every poll that has come out since the last democratic debate in the middle of the month. here s what you see. there is that poll today with warren leading by seven points. there is that poll yesterday with biden up 15. but otherwise, biden, biden, biden, biden, biden, biden. seven of the eight polls since the debate, biden has led in. what does that mean? if you average every poll together, this is probably the fairest snapshot of where the democratic race stands nationally. biden is still in first, warren a little more than five points behind, sanders. remember, all those predictions that sanders was going to fade out bought of his health scare, he s still sitting there at 17%. that s probably the fa