and there s been some movement. there has definitely been some movement. so take a look here. this is our new poll right now, folks. our new poll. what do we see. we see joe biden up by five points. 49 to 44. sanders up 49 from 45. warren up just a point. and pete buttigieg down a point but within the margin of error. look at october. back in october, biden was up by ten. sanders was up by nine. and warren was up eight. now she s only up one. and buttigieg was up six. now he is down one. this is massive movement toward the president of the united states at least in our poll at this particular point. do we have any sense of why? yeah, okay. so i think there are a couple of key reasons why that is. so take a look at how economic conditions are in the country today. and what we see, we have gone back to 2000. most of the time over the last decade, most people have said we
we saw nationwide, hillary clinton beating donald trump 48-46. but in the six closest states that trump won that helped determine the electoral college, arizona, florida, michigan, north carolina, pennsylvania, wisconsin, trump won by a point. so let s take a look at these new battleground polls and compare them to what we re seeing nationally. we see a trend line consistent with what happened in 2016. nationwide, if you take a look at the average poll for 2020 from october, we see biden up by eight, sanders up by six, warren up by five. but take a look at these six closest states again that trump won in 2016, according to new polls from the new york times siena college. if you average across the six, what did you see, we see biden plus one, we see sanders actually losing to trump by one, and we see warren trailing trump by three points. the president is leading warren in those six battleground states by three points. let s break it down a little bit further in terms of those battleg
warren up, i can show you a poll. if you want a poll that shows biden up. if you want a poll that shows bernie coming back, i can show you a poll. and it s also if you want to show that a poll that shows peter buttigieg is in the first tier, top tier, i can show you that. and i think that s just kind of where we are. we still have a little bit more ways to go. and i think of polls that really matter are the state polls. a lot of undecided in those polls. people haven t made their minds up. and i think there s just a lot more to watch and to see where we re going here. i agree. i mean, i think what you see is playing out is that this is a long process. right. people are still taking their time to decide who it is that they like, who it is that they see working for, which i think is also important. you see kamala on the ground in iowa. she really has poured a lot of resources. she s moving there. she s moving there, yeah. and i believe she tops the list as in terms of numbe
that brings us to our headliner presidential candidate former maryland congressman john delaney. how are you? good morning. we have five minutes here and see how much we can get çthrou. the numbers of iowa. warren up two points on biden. do you see that as significant? i think it s early. i think the early states will start disconnecting from the national polling as people, including myself, do a real strong push in iowa and new hampshire the next several months. so i just think these things are going to move around a lot. julie: they are going to move around. how troublesome do you believe it is for joe biden? it s very early but joe biden was a clear frontrunner. for him to now be trailing by 2% in iowa that is something the biden camp would be worried about. everyone focuses on the polls. the issue we have in the democratic primary. i think most democrats know
intentionally doing wrong with the children, and this report helps to identify that. for me particularly, the insufficient attention that is being paid to the children s mental health care is my biggest concern right now, and what are we conversation. i applaud all of your efforts. keep them up. thank you. thank you very much. a startling new 2020 survey. warren up, but who s down? might this be the most accurate polling results yet? hmm. exactly. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need.