warren a very distant second place, so distant she s almost being doubled up by biden in this poll. by the way, bernie sanders only a few points behind. what the heck is going on here? two polls with very different results. when that happens the thing to do is look at the totality of it. here s another way to look at this. we re going to show you every poll that has come out since the last democratic debate in the middle of the month. here s what you see. there is that poll today with warren leading by seven points. there is that poll yesterday with biden up 15. but otherwise, biden, biden, biden, biden, biden, biden. seven of the eight polls since the debate, biden has led in. what does that mean? if you average every poll together, this is probably the fairest snapshot of where the democratic race stands nationally. biden is still in first, warren a little more than five points behind sanders. remember, all those predictions that sanders was going to fade out bought of his health sca
ideological divide. self described liberals, there s warren at 26. almost ten points ahead of biden. looking at moderates and conservatives, there s biden up at 29. warren all the way down at 12. so more moderate, older, more blue collar, stronger african-american support, that s the biden coalition, and warren, sort of the opposite. so beth, they re appealing to different people. ideologically and demographically. what happens? how do you square that? well, that s a great question, you could base it on times when we ve seen this in the past. for example in 2004, howard dean, another sort of new england, liberal, who appealed very much to white college educated people, as does elizabeth warren this time, he flamed up very strong, kind of in those months into 2004 and then flamed out very quickly in iowa. and that was it. and he was done. and john kerry went on to be the nominee. a lot of reasons for that. because among others, he didn t have a well organized campaign in iowa, as so
of this new patrol from quinnipiac. one thing i should point out, the poll looks a lot like the other ones. i took an average of the probability standards. biden up by double digits. warren, 18%, sanders 15%. if you measure the last four polls, this is a poll of polls. this is a poll of polls. it s an average of polls. this is what you do, sometimes you catch outliers like that. it s good we have outliers. it shows the pollster is doing a legitimate job. 19 out of 20 times you ll be within the margin of error. what s impressive to you about quinnipiac? you see warren on top of sanders. mammoth had sanders on top of warren. senator sanders likes to say, you people in the polls, don t bother me with polls, he has one poll that comes out, he s flashed it all over his social media account. what do you mean, think of quinnipiac moving up with her on sanders. could it be another assessment basically with the plus minus of
there are other candidates who are not on the list as well. i wouldn t be surprised if there isn t another candidate that drops out because the fact of the matter is, debates are a lifeline to the campaign. without money, you can t run a presidential campaign. and in terms of let s unpack it a little bit now. if she s now, it says something about what is working and what isn t, especially in the con tex of this new poll from quinnipiac. one thing i should point out, the poll looks a lot like the other ones. i took an average of the probability standards. biden up by double digits. warren, 18%, sanders 15%. if you measure the last four polls, this is a poll of polls. it s an average of polls. this is what you do, sometimes you catch outliars like that. 19 out of 20 times you ll be
much a democrat can do not to be hurt. again, you look at these numbers. biden up by nine. bernie up by seven. elizabeth up by five. these are all democrats trump has mocked endlessly and even with the power of the presidency he still trails them and trails biden very badly. yeah, joe, what he s done effectively and not for the first time he is the only story in this country. donald j. trump. i mean, this was a truly deeply depressing weekend based upon that tweet that he put out. basically, the president of the united states saying to four women of color, go back where you belong. i mean, who hasn t heard that in the past and in this country? well, we ll talk about that for a second, mike, but tell me i mean, that s a great example though. that s going to be our next story. but that s a great example.