Econintersect s Economic Index forecast sees a modest slowing of the economic rate of growth as consumers do not yet seem to be prepared to spend. The media/government message machine is spinning the variants as a potential bomb reinforcing the message to consumers to save for the oncoming rainy day - even though the current rapidly expanding COVID vaccination program should be cause for a rosier message.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
The effectiveness of stimulus programs is significantly undermined when the economic brakes are not released. The last stimulus was banked by the majority, and the new stimulus being legislated currently will likely end up in the bank also. This is the main reason that this economic forecast showed a lower growth rate - poor consumer spending.
The New York Fed s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continues to show an economy that is just above the worst seen during the Great Recession. This index recovery has stalled based on the 13 week rolling average.
Analyst Opinion of the Weekly Leading Index
This data set should be considered a high-frequency coincident indicator on a par with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index produced by the Philly Fed - and both show conditions caused by the coronavirus pandemic are already worse than the Great Recession. However, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index is improving whilst the WLI is still declining. Logic would say with the partial reopening of the economy - the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index seems to be correct.
Written by Steven HansenThe New York Fed s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continues to show an economy that is just above the worst seen during the Great Recession. This index recovery has stalled based on the 13 week rolling average.
The New York Fed s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continues to show an economy that is just above the worst seen during the Great Recession. This index recovery has stalled based on the 13 week rolling average.
Analyst Opinion of the Weekly Leading Index
This data set should be considered a high-frequency coincident indicator on a par with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index produced by the Philly Fed - and both show conditions caused by the coronavirus pandemic are already worse than the Great Recession. However, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index is improving whilst the WLI is still declining. Logic would say with the partial reopening of the economy - the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index seems to be correct.
Econintersect s Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a marginally stronger economy in February. The coronavirus daily totals are declining - but the leaders at the CDC are worried that the South African / Brazilian variant may explode in February which would heavily impact the economy.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
In the case of our forecasting model, it was not designed to accurately forecast very swift movements - as our model averages to remove noise. That means the relative decline of the forecast index due to the coronavirus pandemic is understated as the decline was swift and the beginning of the recovery was swift. Analyzing the economic data, the real decline during the pandemic lockdown was much deeper than the Great Re