Written by Steven HansenEconintersect s Economic Index forecast sees a bump in the economic rate of growth at the Main Street level partially driven by comparisons to the recession one year ago. However, economic potential is better than the pre-COVID conditions as the economy was weakening well before the pandemic hit.
Econintersect s Economic Index forecast sees a bump in the economic rate of growth at the Main Street level driven by government spending - and employment continues to accelerate.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
Economic year-over-year growth is about to skyrocket as the data is being compared to the country s lockdown and recession last year - but do not confuse yourself as the underlying rate of growth is not exceeding pre-pandemic levels in most areas.
A recession ends when the economy begins to recover - and the economy is definitely recovering. This may be the shortest recession ever at 2 to 3 months. HOWEVER, the pandemic is not over and the coronavirus will decide when it wants to release the economy from its grip. At this point, the coronavirus is in control of the economy and all forecasts are simple guesses.
Econintersect s Economic Index forecast sees a modest slowing of the economic rate of growth as consumers do not yet seem to be prepared to spend. The media/government message machine is spinning the variants as a potential bomb reinforcing the message to consumers to save for the oncoming rainy day - even though the current rapidly expanding COVID vaccination program should be cause for a rosier message.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
The effectiveness of stimulus programs is significantly undermined when the economic brakes are not released. The last stimulus was banked by the majority, and the new stimulus being legislated currently will likely end up in the bank also. This is the main reason that this economic forecast showed a lower growth rate - poor consumer spending.
Econintersect s Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a marginally stronger economy in February. The coronavirus daily totals are declining - but the leaders at the CDC are worried that the South African / Brazilian variant may explode in February which would heavily impact the economy.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
In the case of our forecasting model, it was not designed to accurately forecast very swift movements - as our model averages to remove noise. That means the relative decline of the forecast index due to the coronavirus pandemic is understated as the decline was swift and the beginning of the recovery was swift. Analyzing the economic data, the real decline during the pandemic lockdown was much deeper than the Great Re