trump doing better than others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump. hillary at 44.1%. what s the difference? how do preelection polls match the final results? i think you re about to be shocked. david lauder, i have to note, the methods of the l.a. times poll don t meet the cnn standards and yet, in 2012, that poll said, your poll said obama would win by 3.38% and he won by 3.85%. and the applied statistics at columbia university co-authored a saying the margin of error in polls is actually double what we re led to believe. let me begin with you. how does your methodology differ from the conventional polls? there are a number of things different. probably the most important thing is we ask a different question and because we ask a different question, a somewhat
nate virtually 538.com says hillary has an 84.7% chance of winning. and yet are they to be believed? trump accuses that the polls are crooked. he says they are rigged. the usc- l.a. times daybreak tracking poll consistently shows trump doing better than the others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump, hillary at 44.1. what explains the difference and how well do pre-election polls match the final results? i think you re about to be schocked. david lauder is l.a. times washington bureau chief. the methods of the poll don t meet the cnn standards and yet in 2012 that poll said obama would win by 3.38% and he won by 3.85 and andrew, a professor of statisticics at columbia
enabler than victim but are those attacks valid? i ll ask the man who broke the lewinsky scandal. and trump t ourch ts his business prowess as his chief credential but given the behaviors we ve just seen, could donald trump get hired at say walmart? i ll ask the nation s premier business writer, andrew ross sorkin is here. even before this, the electoral map was tilting heavily in hillary s favor. but look at this one. it shows donald trump up 44.2-44.1 and this poll has been right before. i ll speak to two experts who will explain why all the numbers could be off. and thanks to his uncanny ability to get trump to be trump, is the most influential media figure this campaign season howard stern? but first the number it now stands at eight, that s how many women cnn confirms have come forward with allegations of
then the anthony weiner scandal choked it off. but we ll see whether that reversed the trend of whites over 50 trending towards republicans in recent years. the greenburg polling was post weiner. it did show there was a benefit for democrats among older voters. she s one of the top pollsters in the democrat party. he does a poll for the democratsy poll with james carvel. it s a democratic firm. it s one that s well regarded by insiders on both sides. they didn t sugar coat what was happening last year. what they found is people don t like they asked on a thermometer scale, on a scale of vooer oh to 100 how do you feel about republicans in congress and democrats in congress. republicans in congress 43.8, democrats in congress 44.1. they re not happy. 50 would be half-and-half. they re not happy with either one. the approval for republicans in congress is only 32%.
first of all, i didn t say the word racist. it is certainly race conscious, however. republicans know very well they don t track a lot of african-american voters. but this doesn t go after the african-american middle class anyway. this goes after poor elderly voters and college students. this is about shaving off a half percentage point of voters that would affect the results in a close race. and ron used a very important word. he said the state of indiana speculated. yes, the state of indiana speculated, but there s absolutely no proof actually that all these voters no, no. i said that 44.1% you said there was a report speculating that. no. if i said speculation, that s not a fact. they didn t have the evidence they did have the evidence. if you can show me two convictions for in-person voter impersonation over the last 20 years, i ll contribute $500 to