nate virtually 538.com says hillary has an 84.7% chance of winning. and yet are they to be believed? trump accuses that the polls are crooked. he says they are rigged. the usc-"l.a. times" daybreak tracking poll consistently shows trump doing better than the others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump, hillary at 44.1. what explains the difference and how well do pre-election polls match the final results? i think you're about to be schocked. david lauder is "l.a. times" washington bureau chief. the methods of the poll don't meet the cnn standards and yet in 2012 that poll said obama would win by 3.38% and he won by 3.85 and andrew, a professor of statisticics at columbia