nate virtually 538.com says hillary has an 84.7% chance of winning. and yet are they to be believed? trump accuses that the polls are crooked. he says they are rigged. the usc- l.a. times daybreak tracking poll consistently shows trump doing better than the others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump, hillary at 44.1. what explains the difference and how well do pre-election polls match the final results? i think you re about to be schocked. david lauder is l.a. times washington bureau chief. the methods of the poll don t meet the cnn standards and yet in 2012 that poll said obama would win by 3.38% and he won by 3.85 and andrew, a professor of statisticics at columbia