0 campaign like that. you've got to planted. you've got to execute it. that's reason number one. that might come back, by the way. they might be stunned at the moment, but that might come back. moment, but that might com back we're much better prepared, and there's a lot more >> peter pommerantsey, who has written several books on this topic, learned a lot from him, thank you very much for your time tonight. i really appreciate it. good evening. i'm it is now midnight on the east coast as we continue to follow breaking news out of ukraine. russia is accelerating its offensive and more civilians are being killed in the attempt to seize control of kyiv. one senior u.s. defense official tells nbc news it made 100% of the military forces that vladimir putin mobilized for war are now inside ukraine. president zelenskyy remains in his country and he spoke to the nation from his office in the capital. zelenskyy amazingly posted this video to facebook saying he will not leave ukraine and he will be there as long as it takes to win this war. latvia, secretary of state blinken called out russia for strikesed on civilians and referred to the siege by german nazis who invaded ukraine in 1941 with a personal reference to vladimir putin. >> we've seen scenes like this before in europe. every russian has lived or learned about the siege of leningrad during world war ii in which that city's civilian population was systematically starved and intentionally destroyed over nearly 900 days leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths. that siege affected millions of russian families. including president putin's. whose 1-year-old brother was one of the many victims. now, russia is starving out cities like mariupol. it's shameful. >> the u.n. says the 12 days of fighting so far in ukraine has killed more than 400 civilians, but also says the actual death toll is certainly much higher than that. and nearly two million ukrainians have now fled the country. >> president putin's war of choice has already turned half a million children into refugees. already more than 1.7 million civilians have fled ukraine into surrounding countries. 100 refugees are crossing into poland every minute. 100 a minute. >> here with us tonight, nbc's cal perry in lviv ukraine and ali velshi is near the hungary ukraine border. thank you very much for joining me. let's start with you in lviv. the mayor says the city is struggling to feed those who have fled war-torn ukraine. what you are seeing playing out there? >> this is a city starting to bend. it hasn't broken yet but i think it is great fear that day will come. this is a city of 6 to 700,000 people and 200,000 internally displaced persons have been resettled in this city and 350 miles away from kyiv, we are having more and more air sirens, hearing the sound as the day goes on, and in the old part of the city is a you ness co heritage site and what we have seen are very historic stat use some from the 16th andst 17th centuries get bundled up and protected by blankets, fireproof blankets and some starting to be moved and it looks like this city l is starting to prepare f the eventuality that the army could come here and interesting to see some statutes from world war one and world war ii get sort of protected as this situation seems to only grow. people here are concerned this city was supposed to be safe. it wasd supposed to never be pt of this conflict and nowd folk because of the widening conflict, they're worried that sooner or later it will happen here. >> and cal, let me ask you this. we in the west are absorbed with this conflict, a lot of chatter. what can we do? ukrainian politicians are saying that the west needs to bera doi more. what are the people on the ground saying? are they talking about the international community, about what the rest of the world should or shouldn't be doing? >> absolutely. and a week ago, it was a very different answer when you would ask people what do you want from thepe west. the answer is a week ago, we want what we're seeing, sanctions against russia and more weapons from nato and support as we fight our war, against russia. the issue now is, a week later, you have a dozen ukrainian cities in the east surrounding where the russians are going to that play book that we feared they would, which is cutting off the power, cutting off the water, cutting off the heat, surrounding city, bombing them into dust, we heard today from the ministry of energy, for example, that city of mariupol, which we've been talking so much about on the black seacoast has been without power or water or heat since the second of this month. that's six days where people are huddledwh in these basement, whe people are being killed. we heard today from the u.k. ministry of defense that indeed, urpine was targeted by russian troops, the intersection was targeted and civilians were intentionally shot at. now the answer here has changed when you ask people what do you want fromeo the west, they say wantwe a no-fly zone, nato or t americans to implement a no-fly zone so we can control the air space so that we can start to turn the tide, against this russian invasion, the politics of that are incredibly tricky, we've heard from the nato secretary general saying he believes more lives will be saved by not implementing that no-fly zone because he is concerned as is america, that the russians will then just starten targeting nato countrie. but i just want to say this one thing. if you're in a basement in mariupol, if you fled from kharkiv on a train that was bombed as it was headed for kyiv, world war three has started with you and it is hard to sympathize with a widening conflict. >> of course. and two million refugees almost have left ukraine. you have been watching bus loads arrive where you are in hungary near ukraine's border. how is hungary coping with this influx of people from ukraine? >> well, it's complicated. we don't get as many as they're getting in poland. poland gets about 60% of them. you saw linda greenfield talk, the u.s. ambassador to the u.n., sayingsa 100 people are going io poland every hour, and we're not getting that many, but about 180,000, probably close to 200,000 now in hungary, a country that hasn't been that open to the idea of refugees in general but a little more from ukraine as opposed to syria struggled with a few years back. and hungary is a nato country who is really struggling with exactly how strong of a position to take against putin. the stronger position he takes, the more putin describes hungary as a hostile country, and the currency here has been suffering, they are very dependent on russian energy. he has said if the eu sanctions russian energy, we are not going to, so hungary is stuck. it, is a bit of a problem. they have agreed to have nato soldiers move in, but it is west of the danube river, west of budapest, the troops are not supposed come here, weapons can come here to goom to ukraine bu can't go directly to ukraine, they gottl to go through a thir country. one thing i've seen today that i have not seen before. very heavily armored military presence in eastern hungary. including a truck that had anti--aircraft missiles on it. we're not quite sure what they're planning to do with that because hungary doesn't want to get into that sort of conflict with russia but it is feeling a littleus more armed than it was when you and i talked about 24 hours ago. >> quick last question, for you, ali, almost two million refugees in 12 days, these are historic monumentalth numbers. they could get higher. three, four, five million, god forbid. >> sure. >> how does hungary and poland cope withar those kind of numbe? >> well, polands at least has camps that they are setting up and i can't imagine, refugee camps in europe but they got them. hungary is saying none of those. what they are really hoping for is people who comear in here, transit through somewhere else, in poland you go to warsaw to getgo to an airport to go somewhere else that you know people. same thing in pude pest. you got an airport that by the way, another one of these bosses that we've been talking about, this is the first one, since daylight, a bus coming s in, wi the refugees, that they're going to drop off here, to get aid. and at the moment, they're mostly going through. people i talked to are looking to get budapest and get on a plane and go somewhere else, particularly those who were noncitizens of ukraine. but for the moment, there's no plan. you're right, it could be four, five million people. the u.n. hcr says it is probably bigger than the numbers we're talking about already because people don't account for the people who get off the bus. one u.n. hcr guy here, maybe he gets some, maybe he doesn't. we know it is not slackening up. it isng getting more serious. >> we'll have to leave it there. ali, cal, stay safe. thank you for your time tonight. with that, let's bring in our experts tonight, brian class, a columnist for the "washington post" and assistant professor for university politics, and author of "corruptible" and nya hawk, former state department senior adviser.te thank youad both. brian, let me start you with. the pentagon saysst this invasi is not going the way vladimir putin planned and i think that is clear even though we're not military experts. what is going through vladimir putin's head tonight? i know it is a 64 million ruble question, but it is the question, what is putin thinking? >> i think putin miscalculated very badly because he's a victim of his own propaganda machine and his own megalo-mania and the way despots work, they create these fake realities and force people around them to parrot lies as loyalty tests, this is why the russian foreign minister is constantly saying the same things on behalf of vladimir putin on show he is loyal to him. and over time, i think you start to understand that these lies become real to people like putin. so, you know, i think this is something we have to recognize. because it is very dangerous to be negotiating with a despot like putin and assume that he is rational in some way, assume that he has not been warped by his own propaganda machine so any sortag of diplomatic overtus are required to take into account the fact that this is no longer someone who is behaving like a rational actor on the global stage. >> and the russians put out what they called proposals for peace today, things like accept that weat control the independent, quote unkwoept republics in the east, accept crimea as part of russia,.tut in your constitution that you will never join nato, and be neutral, are those dismissed out of hand or, are those the things that will form the basis between the ukrainian government and the russianee government going forward? >> they have been dismissed out of hand by the ukrainian president zelenskyy. one of the options on the table that putin presented was to have zelensky serve as a figurehead and have a putin-installed prime minister actually running the country. which most suspect was the plan all along,ct that putin's not wanting to have to take over the entire country and run it, out of moscow, but wanted a puppet regime similar to what he had in belarus, but zelensky ukrainian dissent has proven to be far stronger than putin accelerated and the military has had some serious operational defects and not onlyat have they lost one o their senior most generals just this week but they have also lost all secure calm and knocking out the 3 g towers, they are no longer able to make phone calls back home to the kremlin, as part of why the west knows so much about what's been going on. so putin is grasping at straws, is hoping to use the diplomatic off-ramp, essentially to stall for time. >> one fascinating aspect to this conflict has been obviously we're seeing the heart breaking horrific scenes out of ukraine. but also what we're seeing in russia, in terms of anti-war protests, have been rounded up, detained, arrested and there are thousand, and now obviously this is a country a of many, many million people, we shouldn't extrapolate from anti-war protesters saying putin is about to fall, about to cave, but what do these protests tell you about the nature of the russian regime right now. and what it is dealing with at home? >> we oftenng call pute an stro man. and this is a kind of weakness that he has to force people to shut up because they oppose him. now, i think there are significant elements of the russiansi population that do ba vladimir pute. and it's difficult to discern whether that's because they're constantly living in his propaganda machine, fed disinformation andpr lies or because they generally understand what isca going on i ukraine and they support. it i think you've seen disturbing images of the sign z that is put on people's clothing as a nationalistic, militaristic symbol in support of vladimir putin and this shows youor how e russian regime operates, it is a culture ofte fear, it is a culte of fear in which you must show feel ty to the leader or face the consequences. that's a dynamic that will worsenam in russia as this conflict goes on and russia becomes more isolated, the domestic crackdown on dissent will get worse than before and it is saying a heck of a lot because it is very oppressive in the russian state. >> let's talk about what is happening herek at home. gas prices rising. talk of a ban on russian oil. and a u.s. administration, you served in the state department, trying to send diplomats to maybe to venezuela, maybe to saudi arabia, to a friend, saudi arabia, to an adversary, the maduro regulation to try to get more oil pumped. how hard is that going to be to pull off? >> it's already proving very difficult. the saudis have zero interest in helping lower the price of oil. in fact,th they said that they will help negotiate with russia, but they will not participate in negotiations to lower the price of oil. opec and russia have a strong relationship. and the saudis actually are taking advantage of this moment, right? this is presidentom biden's opportunity to show the world that theop democracies are unit against autocracies but none of the ally notice middle east including israel, which is the largest exchange of u.s. defense military equipment, the united arab emirate, not stepping up, they'reng abstaining from everything, even though we have military bases there, none of the gulf allies are choosing the side of democracy in this case and trying to leverage the relationship with putin on their advantage. with mbs now coming around, the prince of saudi arabia, coming back around saying he can be an honest broker between both the united states and ukraine and russia. >> i love the idea, people having to deal with different parts of the world. let me ask you this. the oil issue is a big issue here inis the u.s. something everyone can get behind is targeting oligarch, something we have talked a lot on the network and the u.s. news media since the state of the union. you wrote a book about corruption and people abusing power to get rich. is there a danger that the oligarchs will be fine, they willol always get away with it d the russian people are the ones thatn are going to suffer. >> i think that is definitely going to happen in theha short term but i think the only way to have leverage against vladimir putin is to go after the money. my argument has long been you have to make the lives of the oligarchs more russian, they send their kids to schools in places like britain and u.s. and stash the cash in offshore bank accounts and sail around in their yachts in the mediterranean for vacation. if they have to start worrying about what happens in saint petersburg and moscow, they will put more pressure on putin on fix this. and the unfortunate aspect of this is there are going to be innocents russian civilians wh will have a invery, very diffict time because i don't think this geopolitical shift is the short-term, is a short-term slap on the wrist. it is a major pivot point in the 21st century. and so, you know, my view on this is that that short-term pain will t be worth it, if we n actually fundamentally shift the international banking system, in a way that starts to stamp out money laundering and some of these ways, in which the russian oligarchs and other oligarchs by the way around the world move their money freely around the world despite the illicit origins. >> less than 60 seconds left. quick answer. joe biden tomorrow could stand up and say we're going to take as many refugees as we need to takege from ukraine and probabl have a lot of public support even from some republicans, wouldn't he? >> yes, indeed. probably far more public support than that, for taking refugees in from haiti or from syria which both have been options in the past or from mexico and i'm intriguedo personally to see h much the biden administration refugee policy or asylum change, since it hasn't changed since the trump administration but now that there are ukrainian blond haired blue-eyed people people trying to get in from the southern border, will that wall be the rallying cry for the right wing or will they let the ukrainians win? you tell me. >> i hope that this will drive some kind of positive change at home, especially on the refugee front. brian, we'll have to leave it there. thank you very much for both of you for your time. the rachel maddow resumes after this quick break. ter thisk
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