Transcripts For CSPAN Intelligence 20240706

Cspan will air the coverage from the rural perception royal procession to once westminster abby. Watch on cspan or cspan. Org. Next, a look at the top of Global Threats with adam hayes and scott berrier. They testify before the Senate Armed Services committee on four and intelligence surveillance, the Russia Ukraine were, u. S. Competition with china, and other emerging threats. The hearing is about two and half hours. Morning before we begin today want to take a moment to acknowledge the general this past weekend. General stewart was an inspiring trailblazing served nation, the decades. All the way director of the Intelligence Agency. He committed himself entirely to our nation and his leadership will continue throughout the marine corps and cia. My thoughts are with his wife children and family. Todays hearing, the Committee Meets this one to receive testimony on the worldwide threats facing the United States and its national partners. Id like to welcome to National Intelligence and director of the Intelligence Agency, thank you for joining us gratitude for the men and women Intelligence Unit for their work. At the annual, number of state and nonstate actors as well as health and Environmental Security challenges. Among the wide range of issues, the future of the National Security is tied to the success of competition with china. This competition is every field policy mobility economic, political and ethological and every region of the world for several decades the United States way of war and focuses on covering all technologies and access, artificial intelligence, hypersonics and Nuclear Weapons. The accommodation of military civil against neighbors including coloration, beijing achieves its National Governance while awarding confrontation with the u. S. Military. As the Defense Department joint concept, china since the win without fighting. We do not adapt our approach to be more effective in the United States risks advantage and leverage while preparing for war. The u. S. Without a fight. Just chinese study, we need to study there. With that in mind, i would ask witnesses for their assessment of how china is evolving to better strategies. We appreciate an update on military and nonmilitary most likely to impact decisionmaking with respect to the action against taiwan and other regional partners. Even as we compete with china, the most violent destabilizing, ukrainians have incredible courage defending the same values and freedom that we charge. Ukraine is notable successes, let there be no doubt United States will continue to help ukraine succeed on the battlefield. Americas assistance to ukraine is in our own National Security. I want to commend the leaders of the Intelligence Community the release of intelligence throughout the conference. Routinely expose russias intentions and aid in intelligence officials cautious about revealing insight on adversaries but the strategy has proven highly effective in strengthening International Community response including putin, a great example of competing in the information domain and i hope we will continue to make use of this. With that in mind, russias initial strategy was a failure and it seems to be changing. I would ask your assessment in order complex International Order. I hope you will consent to russia and china under the socalled no limit partnership and implications for National Security. Finally, the continue to push issues like Climate Change and in the program and reportedly seeking precious help to make for the candidate. This is considered throughout the middle east including iraq and syria for the u. S. Military. Most korea connected to doesnt missile tests this year including cvms and has reportedly stopped routine military communications in south korea and i understand the Intelligence Community, change will continue to exacerbate risk of security as issued like rising temperatures pollution, changing patterns and other climate effects likely to lead to an array such as food and water and security and threats to human health. I appreciate witnesses perspectives on each of these jobs thank you for your participation and i look forward to your testimony as a reminder, a closed session immediately following this hearing and the return to ranking members. Thank you, i want to congratulate you on your statement concerning the threats china and russia and i want to join you in observing memorializing life of general stewart in his untimely death. I want to thank our witnesses for being here today, the United States is confronted with the most complex dangerous Global Security since the second world war. Adversaries are growing in their military capabilities engaging provocative destabilizing behavior across the spectrum of competition and conflict actively trying to displace the United States is the Global Leader and longstanding critical alliances partnership. We are at an inflection. , the decisions we make this year will have farreaching applications for the United States military whether its properly positioned to deter our adversaries and in conflict. Regrettably, the budget request lacks urgency this moment requires and fails to make necessary investments in our nations defense. For the third year in a row the defense spending make no mistake, our adversaries are taking notice and i believe on a bipartisan basis we will rectify this failure. Former secretary is in the midst of unprecedented buildup of strategic face symmetric capabilities under the direction of its most powerful ruthless leader. At the same time putins unprovoked attack against ukraine has upended Global Security, cost life and further isolated autocratic regime. Now is not the time to question our commitment for ukrainian partners to take u. S. Interests, we need to provide ukraine with the tools it needs to bring this war to a successful conclusion. Not to be stopped on north korea make now possess defenses and a man inches closer to developing Nuclear Weapons. So chaos across the middle east. Terrorist network. President bidens disastrous chaotic withdrawal from afghanistan emboldened terrorist networks around the world, isis and al qaeda, affiliates across the middle east, africa and south asia are reconstituting capabilities. The recent exposure of classified materials and the impacts disclosure has on military operations and cooperation. Multiple investigations are going, i expect the committee will be fully informed as it becomes available and corrected as actions are taken. The committee deserves answers in a support role able to access and post online classified documents for over a year without detection, over a year. We need to understand whether the department of defense and security procedures failed or simply were not followed. Again, i think the witnesses for being here, thank you, mr. Chairman and look forward to an important discussion. Thank you very much and let me recognize thank you very much. Bring your microphone close as possible. Is that better . Yes. Thank you very much for your kind words, it was he was an intelligent community, a leader, someone who has inspired a lot of our folks over the years and brings together integrity a way that is rare and extraordinary. Thank you for the opportunity to be here alongside my wonderful colleague general and your steadfast support for the men and women of the Intelligence Community who serve our country. Im grateful for the opportunity to present the annual threat assessment and want to acknowledge the many people who have contributed to this work from the collector to the analyst to everyone in between, this assessment is product of their effort and they have our gratitude. This years report during the coming year the United States and allies will face interNational Security environment dominated by two strategic challenges that intersect with each other trying to intensify National Security applications. First great powers, rising regional powers and a way of nonstate actors for influence and impact in the International System including the standards and rules that will shape the global order for decades to come. Second, challenges that transcend borders including Climate Change International Criminal activity and security and Economic Needs made worse by energy and Food Insecurity as well as russias invasion of ukraine are intensifying and emerges from the covid19 pandemic for the compounding the impact that rapidly emerging technologies on governance, economies, communities around the world. The intersection of these challenges underscore the importance of working together with partners and allies to address the threats we face and how critical it is to counter effort to undermine double forms for principles and mechanisms that promote and underpin National Cooperation which is an implicit being in the threat assessment. It starts with the republic of china as it is increasingly challenging United States economically, technologically, politically, militarily and intelligence view around the world and i spent most of my time on china and russia among Top Priorities and focus on updating our views with the latest rather than repeating the annual threat assessment. We assess the Chinese Communist Party President xi jinping will to efforts over the next year to achieve his vision of making china laminate power and a major power on the world stage. Was perhaps most concerning is increasingly convinced they only have the vision of the extent of u. S. Power tools of corrosion using demonstrations of strength as well as economic and political coercion to compel government preferences including land, air taiwan the relationship between the United States and china has become more challenging, public reference to americas depression of china in march of this year reflect longstanding distrust of u. S. Goals and United States seeks to contain china. Prc asserted it was in recent transit and meetings to speakers of the house over the past year. Chinas leaders are focused on spurring domestic Economic Growth this year but in the long run, spurring Indigenous Technology innovation is paramount. President xi remains confident beijing can innovate to the technological frontier to the allied restrictions and doing so will give china the competitive advantage crucial to achieving his vision to china as a world power. Nonetheless were likely to see more disdent action out of beijing and welcoming at China Development forum opposed against the pressure on foreign firms and executive investigations of u. S. Firms and clamp down on previous nonsensitive data employees out of china. Chinas era of rapid cap growth is stretching and the debt, demographics and equality and alliance on the domestic con sums remains and ccp may find ways to overcome over the long term and short term, it continues to take an increasingly aggressive approach to external affairs often to bolster its domestic agenda. Chinas leaders are increasing in a world class military and expanding the Nuclear Arsenal and psychoer threat capacity, pursuing Counter Space weapons capable of targeting u. S. And allied satellites, forcing Foreign Companies and coercing Foreign Companies and boosting digital capabilities and continuing to increase Global Supply chain dependencies on china with the possibility of using such dependencies to threaten and cut off Foreign Countries during a cry reporter cch seeking to realign the government and power in china and expanding influence through the exporal of digital repression technologies. Weve observed expanding strategic ties between china and russia as distributed by the chairman and strengthened by the conflict in ukraine. Were now over a year into the war, thats reshaping not only russias global relationships and strategic standing and our own. Strengthening alliance and partnerships in ways that president putin didnt an sis anticipate like linnland and others joining nato. The the area areas are brutal areas of war and fighting over hundreds of meters. They gained less territory in april than the three previous months and offensive to defensive along the front lines and Russian Forces facing significant short falls in munitions and under personnel constraints and continue to lay mine fields and prepare new defensive positions in occupied ukrainian territory. Both sides focusing on potential ukrainian counter offensive this spring or summer designed to push russia out of illegally annexed territory and theyre finalizing priorities, timing and scale of the offensive and western assistance crucial in preparing plans and forces with the support of congress, the United States is doing a great deal to bolster the chances of success. In fact, if russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and third Party Supplies beyond existing iran and others and itll be increasingly challenging for them to sustain modest offenses for operations and dependent on external military aid and unlikely able to counter the russian most western military aids we continue to have the link and the long and warming of the dress and strategic scale back of immediate ambitions and the omelet pinatad territory between eastern and occupied territory and pause would provide a respite for Russian Forces before resuming offensive operations in the future while buying time for what he hopes will be an erosion of western support for ukraine. He may be willing to claim and putin may be scaling back his near term am biggss and the prospect for russian concessions to advance negotiations and the conflict continues as the human toll is getting worse and many tens of thousands of casualties suffered by ukrainian russian and more than 8 Million People forced to flee ukraine since russia invaded and more over moscow continue on the assault on ukraine and the Energy Facilities and electrical grid and widespread reporting and russia and the proxy groups with infiltration operations to detain and forcibly deport ukrainian civilians to russia. The ic sen gauged in other parts of the u. S. Government for russia accountable for their actions and and will require years of rebuilding and leave it less capable of imposing conventional and as a result russia and on china and our annual acespedesment covers iran, north carolina, regional challenges we face including in africa and weve seen a recent outbreak of fighting in sudan, which is no stranger to conflict. The fighting in sudan between the Sudanese Armed forces and Rapid Support forces is assessed to be protracted and both sides believe to be there and both sides are seeking external sources of support which if successful likely to intensify the conflict and create a greater potential for spillover chances. And spector of massive refugee flows and the population are approximately 15. 8 people require assistance because of disease outbreak, inflation and localized conflict and internal displacement and weatherized food and insecurity. Throughout the world as i noted state actor challenges in the inventory are working together with other countries with critical and National Threat and and rogue myoand legislative authority of fundamental importance to the Intelligence Community and the work we do and expire at the end of this year if congress does not act. Im referring to section 702 of Foreign Surveillance act and section 702 relied upon in gathering some intelligence that form the basis of this and its hard for the authority of our work more generally and 702 allows the Intelligence Community to collect on the communication of specifically targeted foreign persons who are located outside the United States and in doing so provides unique intelligence at speed and reliability we Kansas City Chiefs not replicate in any other authority. Section 702 is originally enacted with charity by abroad to aloe them allow for them to have them relied upon for key insights across a range of high priority threats and theyre used to protect against a series of conventional and Cyber Attacks posed by china, russia, iran, and north korea. For example i can tell you that 702 acquired information enabled the United States to gain insights into the prc and in some cases prevent attacks. 702 acquired information is opponents for weapons of mass destruction from eaching foreign actors and 702 acquired information resulted in the identification and disruption of powerful authority and incumbent on all of us and Civil Liberties of americans and built into design and implementation at every level and last many years weve expanded oversight and dedicated resources to compliance in order to do just that and we welcome the opportunity to help you understand better the oversight frame work weve built as we work to authorize this critical authority so thank you for your patience and i look forward to your questions. Thank you. Ranking member, distinguished committee members. Thank you for the opportunity to discuss dis acespedesment of the Global Security assessment of the Global Security environment. I would like to take the moment to recognize and honor Lieutenant General vince stuart, the 20th director. Vince passed away in his sleep last friday. We lost a giant, intellectual giant, trailblazer and good friend. He was a marine and talented officer who touched the lives of many organization he served in or led. We mourn his loss, grieve with his family and we honor his memory. Im pleased to join director haines and rigorous intelligence and dia and the Defense Intelligence enterprise transforming our approach to the threats to our nation imposed by the china and your support with dia and die will continue to excel in providing all source analysis and the set. This will most likely be the last time i testify before the committee and will become somewhat reflective on the bipolar world and the cold war in the ussr. I served at Infantry Battalion office in alaska. One of the missions was to protect critical Oil Infrastructure in the high north from the attack. My 23yearold self didnt think much of that mission at the time. Wasnt very exciting, but in retrospect it was a Important Mission then and protecting Critical Infrastructure is a Important Mission today. Exponentially more dangerous than in 1984. From russias unprovoked and and yeah security environment and resolve too and developing capabilities to hold the homeland at risk and tolerance for potential escalation and north korea, iran and violence. Stepping up as multido main against taiwan and observed by the rhetoric and activity over the last year and xi jinping containment ovthe Party Position beijing and further progress on military monoterrifickization and operation monitorrization and operational goals for the next year and beyond. 2022 was not a good year. The new look army is gone and in my view were at a particular dangerous place with russia. Putin is not seeking an off ramp and moscow asserted they remain committed to achieving it is objectives in ukraine through military force. The whole of nation approach to Technology Development and ple believes integrating Technology Like ai and quantum will constitute a major resolution in military affairs. And customer needs and address unprecedented National Security challenges. Transformation and change are imperatives. Im please that had dis making real world progress under mission sets. As such foundational military intelligence defense human counter intelligence, measurement and signature intelligence are jay wicks. Our Strategic Operational and tactical intelligence war fighters, defense planners, policymakers and Acquisition Community and look forward to discussing real world chamath millions of our progress. These talented and dedicated experts making strides to defend the United States and allies. From our defense to analysts to technical collectors to enabling force, these professionals are mission focused and working tirelessly behind the scenes for our nation. Dia is investing in the work force and infrastructure bring together talented officers at varied experiences with dia core and modernizing the next generation of intelligence capables and the work force that hads before and after to win wars and illuminate wars to enable the United States and outpace our strategic competitors and i welcome your questions on the global threat environment and continue the support and opportunity to testify. T thank you very much, general and thank you both for your details and full testimony. Director haines, secretary owen indicated that well exceed the debt limit by june 1 requiring action before the heavy the Intelligence Community assessed the International Consequences of the high debt. Thank you, chairman. Theres no certainty on the outcome of the Financial Markets and might be affected by a default on the debt but i would say that what our assessment is is regardless of duration of is certainly creating global uncertainty about the value of the u. S. Dollar and institutions and leading to volatility and currency and Financial Markets and Commodity Markets priced in dollars and thats basically as far as our analysts can provide. Any kind of difficult and any indication that china in particular is apreparing for exploitation of this through disinformation in the iron states or through financial or other moves . So i dont have any information that suggests that theyre planning for that, but i think our analysts would agree with you that it would be, you know, almost a certainty that they would look to take advantage of the opportunity and generally both russia and china look to perceive, you know, sort of narrate through Information Operations such as an event democrat straight the chaos in the United States were not capable of governance issues associated with that and done that on a range of things. Thank you. He indicate that had russia remains a Formidable Force despite the significant losses and personnel in ukraine and the maritime space cyber and Security Force haves not really been committed to that effort. Whats the dis acespedesment of russias assessment of russia . Very, very similar. Still an existential threat with the Nuclear Arsenal they have and the general is correct their Strategic Forces are largely untested and formidable. Significant redistribution of forces out of it being a challenge out of their existing capacities. I think from a deterrence standpoint russia fears strengths and even though their Ground Forces are degraded now, theyll build those back quickly. Thank you. X director haines, as i said in my statement, the Intelligence Community has done remarkable work with respect to russia and ukraine by exposing activities that russian or russia was contemplated before they could do it and embarrassing them. Are we ready for the samed aerer sayres of china and using their intelligence operations. Thank you, sir. We can talk about it in closed session a bit more but as a general matter, we have learned some techniques and mechanisms out of crew crane that we can ukraine that we can deploy and more sharing and downgrading and working as a team across the ic to preserve sources and methods in that process and i think we will look to do that, but i think itll be more challenging in different areas depending on what the sources and methods are and how we can manage that concern moving forward. Quickly for both of you, weve had the issue with the air National Guardsman teixeira and we thought and knew when we put in place like key stroke logging and more controls and were still having problems and what can we do to have a more appropriate control . Extremely frustrating and demoralizing for that one working hard to put together the intelligence and disclosed leaps that it does to the National Security is unacceptable on every level obviously and i appreciate the support. What i can tell you at this stage is only an interim answer because were still getting the information from the investigation as to what exactly happened and to understand that is obviously then to have greater confidence in saying that the things were doing are going to make a difference to ensure this doesnt happen again and right now what we are doing is been looking for the best user activity monitoring and other techniques we use and we are again scrubbing and reviewing our processes for ensuring that theres only information provided on a need to know basis and user privileges that theyre appropriately granted and we have additional controls around the issues and we can talk about this more in closed session. Thank you. Senator please. It is a fact that the house of remittives passed a bill to raise the debt limit if passed by the senate and signed into law by the president , a default would be avoided. That is correct, is it not . Sir, im not tracking the take of this and i absolutely am right. The house has done its work and the senate needs to pass and bill and get to the president s desk. Let me ask you this, director haines, the general said the threat has changed and threat has exponentially increased. Do you agree this is the most complex and dangerous threat to world war ii and ill ask that to both of you. Thank you. I feel you always feel the time youre in is the most complex and challenging and i do feel that way but im a little bit conscious of the sort of cognitive bias thats associated with that, but i think it is as our annual threat acespedesment this is a very complex and dangerous threat environment, is it not . General, is this the most complex and dangerous threat environment since world war ii. General, i think so and its been up to it and dangerous regional director and the general and the authorization bill and appropriation bills that Congress Passed this year and should represent acting accordingly to address this greatest threat. I support the senators budget and i will leave it l. Okay. I think that answer speaks loudly. China gives us a figure of general berry about how much they spend. They say 224 billion annually on their military. Do you agree that china spends significantly more than they publicly admit and whats your best estimate of how much their annual defense spending is . Senator, theres a number of factors that go into that estimate and id be more comfort until a closed session to go into that. Director haines, i guess you dont want to discuss that publicly also. Lets then let both of you discuss what this ukraine war has done to russias military capability not only today but over the next 1015 years. General. Number of factors and not just the combat losses and the reorganization that the Russian Military took in the early 2000s meant better, faster, smaller from the solve i cant tell era and that soviet era and that is largely gone and relying on era kids. Itll take them awhile to build back to more advanced estimates going from 5 to 10 years based on how sanctions affect them and their ability to put technology back into their force and theres a set back from the Ground Forces and very, very capable of their strategies Strategic Forces. Im director haines. The next 10 to 15 years based on what has happened so far. I agree. Theres no question and unanimity in the Intelligence Community and itll take years for the Russian Community and they degraded them and nevertheless indicated for the forces and theyre not a powerful military forces. Well, let mo just say this let me just say this to a record for the unclassified annual and its not secret and doesnt need to be down in the states of chinas actual military related spending and its significantly higher than what is there for the outcome. The Civil Military fusion is perhaps china with the civilian industries adapted and used by their military and when you consider that, its a significant. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thanks. Thank you both for being here and your service to the country. Director haines, i want to go back to your comments about the 702 reauthorization because i return from along with a number of my colleagues including senator bud, we return from south america a couple of weeks ago where we visited four countries and 702 came up or at least the ability of Intel Community to use those authorizations to address the challenges facing the country and i was particularly interested in the counter narcotics effort because we continue to have a huge issue in New Hampshire with the opioid epidemic. Theres very real concerns about privacy weve heard and can you talk to about how what were doing aaddress the privacy concerns. Absolutely, senator. Raising 702 for the public to have a better understanding of the value of the authority in the collection that we have but as a general manner, its been used for in the context of counters narcotics trafficking and in many represents used to help partners in intradictions as a general matter and thats been critical and proof of the civil liberty pieces and what i would say is we have a number of things to do in order to monitor and assess our compliance and to ultimately design the system in such a way as to incentivize and promote compliance making it in other words technically hard to do things that are noncompliant and then ultimately have increased extraordinary investments in training of folks who would use assistance and then to making adjustments as we go through the process where we see something goes wrong and addressing it and Holding People accountable in the context of any compliance violations and just to give you a couple of things on an annual basis and its reviewed and recertified by the Foreign Intelligence Court essentially. As one piece and going to congress and a joint 60day review and my department of justice of targeting decisions of any u. S. Person queries that are done through the data base existing and dissemination and we have targeting procedures for each element not reviewed by the attorney general but go to the fifth court yen arkansas again and we go through a variety of ways in which to try and ensure that weve created an effective Virtuous Cycle and we can ensure everything were doing is in fact promoting compliance and monitoring it to see if thats in fact whats happening and addressing challenges as they come and move forward. Weve been providing to show the American People and have all of you and your constituents look at whats happening and see where we make progress and where we make mistakes and how we address and move forward on it to actually build the trust thats necessary. Thank you. Good. Thank you. You both mentioned cyber in youh mentioned cyber in your remarks but i didnt hear either of you talk about the efforts to address disinformation and one place where our adversaries were effective, i think more effective than we have been in responding in many cases has been in the disinformation arena. Can you speak to what were doing and omitterring with. Yeah, i can speak to this and congress put into law that we should establish a foreign influence acceptabilitier in the Intelligence Community weve stood thaw and it encompasses our election threat executive work essentially looking at foreign influence and interference intellections and deals with disinformation more generally and what weve been doing secondively trying to support the Global Engagement center and through the u. S. Government and helping them to understand what are the plans and china, russia, iran, et cetera. Then give them a sense of what it is that were seeing in terms of techniques that they use and how they go act this and provide that for policymakers so theyre able to take that information and hopefully counter it and address it. Thank you. I think dis perspective is really speed and we to want detect that and with the open source collection capability and working with combat and command partners and working all over the world and turn something quickly with them under the right authorities to counter them and disinformation and misinformation. Thank you, both. Director haines, last year china will continue to expand Nuclear Arsenal and diversification for a period of time. Has that azestment changed or does the intelligence still maintain it . That as cespedesment has not changed. Then publicly weve seen that the dia has assessed that china will deploy 1500 general cotton confirm that had u. S. China has now surpassed the United States in the number of fixed and mobile land based launches for icbm. General barrier, do you agree with that acespedesment still . I do agree. Thank you. Director haines, does the Intelligence Committee acespedes that china has any interest in pursuing arms control agreements that would restrict their development of Nuclear Weapons . As a general manner weve not seen china expressing trust in arms control in agreeance in the area. General berry, weve seen reports that russia is providing russia for plutonium for the fast breeder reactors. In fact it was reported by uk think tank and noted between september and december of 2022 and russia and enriched china to the United States and International Agency over the past 0 years. Whats the increased level of the Nuclear Program s . Jot layers of china and rushing supra aural headphones are going deep and the its a an acceleration of programs and development in technology. Director haines, anything toed a to that . Any movement within the administration to look at first of all to the agreements again with russia and is there any i would say false hope by this administration to believe they could pull in russia let alone trying to pull in china during those talks. I couldnt speak to that and what theyre looking at. Thank you. Also, director haines, looking at afghanistan, does isis k seek to instruct our forces and allies and partners . Do you agree with the acespedesment from march about how long it would take isis k to generate capability to conduct external operation and arriving could happen within six months and lead with these and go with a number of developments going with take out key os spects and you feels after afghanistan. And troops in afghanistan and how would you rate the intelligence to gather afghanistan and theyre basically nil and hardly anybody on the ground to get when were look at a threat against the United States interest in persons but also western allies of growing threats were facing there. But as a general heart, we thought to do this develop enough Collection Opportunities so that we can monitor the threat is definitely as you indicated degraded from what we had previously and we can discuss in closed session. Thank you. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank you. Thank you in the event of a large scale cyber attack on the homeland, cisa in the leading role and how much is prc, cyber threat can you share with cisa and how much must remain in the dod and ice . We share almost everything with them and they get anal cyst on the issues and they see the war on intention and overlap and its quite open sharing in that respect. When will you rely on allies across the globe for operations and assistance and are we able to leverage the efforts with cisa with the ally s . Yeah, its a great question and weve talked to allies about for example recognizing that so much of the critical cyber threat information exists in the commercial sector and were trying to see how it is that adversaries are attacking them and weve talked to allies about working together in order to obtain and leverage with the commercial sector and working with cisa to ensure they have access to that information so its an example of working with allies and partners in a way to help cisa better have the landscape and the picture they need for the work they do. What would that like look in the chain of command . This will celebrate on the not the best question for me but depends on where the response is being conducted and how theyre approaching this and i suspect there might be different barriers. Nothing toed a to that. Our government often talks about how our allies and partners are strategic advantage and allies and partners are concerned about building closer relationship withs them and how itll build in closer relationship withs those country in regional return and to the middle east studying impact of the accord on uae and on morocco and ukraine and israel and with regard to that, obviously there was concern when sawed owe china in their negotiation withs iran and the impact of being able to bring saudi arabia in for the accord into question. Senator gillibrand, forgive me. Repeat the first sentence that we talk about allies and perspective of iran and russia and theyre concerned about and they make an example of abraham accord is a strategic accord and power and feel how did the recent efforts by china to negotiate with saudi arabia and iran affect that Strategic Alliance and were pushing for them. I think what our analysts and hedging in the space between you indicated uae is an example of this in defense and its easier to talk about this in closed session but there are a variety of countries where in effect theyre looking at the United States and china and russia and trying to diversify their relationship in a way that allows them to maximize their interests while at the same time pursue, you know, sort of economic and other Security Strategies in each of these spaces. It would seem with saudi arabia in particular, that the acura ham accord thinks this has been kind of a value of bringing countries together under certain circumstances and that that interaction has provided security benefits to the United States but i think each case would have to be looked at this is the nature of the changes landscape and complexity of the environment i described in my Opening Statement and we have to be there and we have to be a better solution, whether thats through intelligence sharing or other partnerships. I dont think its a lost cause but theres a lot that we can do and people see the goodness in what the United States brings and we have to go forward with that. Thank you. And thank you to the family of general stuart and the trailblazer restrain. To me the seventh questioner and accused of trying to assassinate president putin and the United States going into it. Dr. Haines, what do you have to say about the claims from russias government . Well, obviously youve seen the Ukrainian Government deny their having engaged in this and at this stage, we dont have information that would allow us to provide independent acespedesment. General barrier. Theres some claims to maybe think the claims are exaggerated. Do we know that general putin dont spend the night at kremlin all that much. S that right . Yes. Its not like the white house or primary residence of the president of russia. Even if he were there, the drones and videos ive seen dont appear to be the size of weapons that could do significant damage to the kremlin is that correct . These are the kind of drones that require relatively close for control with someone on the ground in moscow and not known as open and friendly city and that correctional area and talking about the attacks and explicitly claiming that responsibility and misinformation and director haines and mexican drug cartels and more depths in america and we lost every year and every year in america theres the vietnam war back to what we lost in the vietnam war and dao to fentanyl alone. Has the Intelligence Community produced a National Intelligence estimate on the threat that the cartel posed to america . No, we have not, sir. Nie is the most authoritative and written judgment on National Security matters; is that correct . Its a authoritative and suspect on the list. Any plans to produce an nie on the threat the cartels pose to america . We do have something on our calendar that is on Transnational Criminal Organizations that include the cartels in this space. Thank you, thats warranted and ill look forward to seeing it. Director haines, you mentioned earlier that itll take russia years to rebuild it is Ground Forces and i believe youre saying that to express agreement with general barriers that correct . I do. Most intelligence agencies incassioppily judge and is that a result of the intelligent inte agency underestimating or overestimating. It was a combination of both. When youre making own Operational Plans you have to make assessments offed a Service Connected vary to be correct and the level at National Strategic level. Fair to say we know now estimated capability as of less in february and seen their forces degrade to do the point itll take years to rebuild them. Thats what we currently assess, yes. Shouldnt the Operational Plans about potential war of russia and europe then be changed to reflect that new understand something i think in the purview of u. S. European commander and department of defense, theyre looking al autothat, senator. Nay need to you are generally and one reason weve heard about the slow pace at which were delivering certain weapons and Operational Plans require it. If our Operational Plan was capable of and now. Badly needs to be revisited. In sere lacking for a fight and spoiling for a dog fight and the head of european command most recently note that had russian submarines more active in the atlantic than in years. Other growing russian aggressions and two, whats the intelligence communities acespedesment and coming in these ways. Can we address this in closed session . Sure. Thank you, director haines. In your opening testimony you said that the chinese growing more and more pes middle ear space ick about the u. S. China relationship and whats the growing pessimism . I would say that theres a number of factors that are leaning in that direction in the sense that we can maybe do a little more in closed session to get to what the root of this is, but i think they are increasingly perceiving the sort of zero sum game thatten mentioned effectively in the opening testimony whereas innocence we have always understood that they perceive themselves or for the last few years now as being on the rise and they perceive the United States as being on the decline and they ultimately are concerned about potential for conflict as we pass each other sort of the classic frame some of the pessimism of the statements by american political figures. Sure. Following the piece and they continue to perceive they cant do what they want without essentially pushing back on the United States with the area. Ive noticed on the speak softly side and weve been getting louder and louder with respect to china concerns with the endopay calm leadership and Opening Statement is a boilerplate plate at that hearing at war with china and hours of the hearing was just one statement after the next that someone trying to perceive what the intentions were more pessimistic about the statements being made and how did it from an intelligence standpoint be concerned about the news during the chinese balloon incident and secretary austin calling the counter part and chinese counter part not answering the phone and that was publicly reported. Is that accurate . I believe it is. I will tell you that as a general matter, the chinese typically clamp down in a crisis and they dont engage and that is a classic per sometime. Pair dime and per dime and in the lines of communication between the military and theyre generally escalating for them. Try to be very strong to deter being prepared to win where we should need to but we would also want to, a, avoid wars based on bad intel and recent history of getting into a war against iraq based on bad intel and the destruction and wed want to do everything we could to avoid whats based on miscommunication and understanding for them. Them whats your level of concern about the prospect of getting into unnecessary military action based upon a miscommunication or unnecessary escalation. Is that a small concern or is it a concern that worries you . Absolutely worries me. Thats part of the job is that we need to be as vigilant as we possibly can in order to be able to help our policymakers and Decision Makers to see whats happening and the reason that unintended escalation or miscalculation and i think one of the challenges of recognizing in the context of our relationship with china is that because theres that kind of clamp down during crises that we were just talking about with the premium on the capacity to provide insight on whats happen in the moments. Thats a wise concern pertaining to the western hemisphere and the trip into the americas and its fentanyl and i am grace challenges and political instability, but also the fact that our adversaries are investing so heavily in the western hemisphere suggest that we ought to be paying them more attention and the south come and other budgets that were underresourcing the region and thats something that ill try to work with my colleagues on and thanks to the witnesses for your testimony and service. Thank you, senator kaine. Senator rahm. Thank you, both for your service to the country. General barrier, thank you for 39 years and especially to your family. Thats a lot of deployments and time away from home and deployments that are handled not just by you but by your family as well and we thank you for that. Let me begin with director haines and regarding 702 and explanation about hour it works and so forth. Im curious do you think they believe thats a opportunity to manipulate or provide misinformation about some programs that we have in the country and has there been evidence to manipulate Public Information or provide misinformation concerning some of the more capable programs. Im trying to think of a specific instance. Specific but not because were in an unclassified discussion but in general, do you think that they believe they can influence political decisions here by providing misinformation publicly . Yes, absolutely. They have typically engaged in such activities in order to influence public debate on issues that are of importance to them. 702 might be one of those as an example. Could be. I dont have particular information that indicates that thats happening. General barrier is there asisments made and going for the information on it and more going provided for it and its clear that theyve participating in activity of advantage of the opportunity for it. Think 702 might be one of the programs with military capability and they wouldnt be beneath them to try and manipulate decisions on a public level that would influence our ability to defend our country if we had the opportunity. Fair enough . I agree with that. Number of different very Important Missions that rely on that portion of the estimate. Would that be a fair statement general . It would be, yes. Are you aware of the more capable defensive capabilities we have the rely specifically on that area . Generally speaking yes. Im not a technical expert. Is it fair to say to destroy systems that we rely on for protecting against air attacks along the coastlines utilized publicly talked about the fact that our radars in that region. I think thats fair. Not just the east coast and the west coast. Alaska and hawaii as well. We spend a lot of money specifically in that particular area and their adversaries know its a matter of public discussion. Fair enough . Fair enough. Right now the public discussion about sharing a large amount of that area for discussion about trying to share or take from the department of defense portions of that spectrum. Would that be an item of interest for our adversaries and would there be an advantage for our adversaries if for any reason we lose that part of the spectrum for defensive purposes . They could see them potentially trying to take advantage of that discussion. Director haines would you agree with that . Yes. Im just curious i know china has been looking at the possibility of along the Atlantic Coast of africa. What would happen if africa were to be able or china were be able to establish a base of operations or for that matter russia along the Atlantic Coast of africa . We will debt due in terms of defending our homeland . Senator the permanent bases there would give them more reach and more access any think about strategic competition is one of those things we watch and is the cia step to keep an eye on that if we see that happening. Do you see it happening . Reducing china trying to make inroads into africa for sure and we note like they would like to expand their global base. Thank you chairman. Thankyous and around. Senator king. Of us to ask unanimous consent to a letter that senator sullivan and i sent to them be included in the record the Research Service provided an exhaustive us in response to questions we have on how china invests in National Security examining the prc that most contribute to the countrys implants. This is a very informative report. Without objection. Thank you. I want to talk about allocations and intelligence resources. Since we have been sitting here this morning about 15 people that died in this country from drug overdoses just in the last hour and a half. In a week and a half as many as were killed in september 11. We are under attack and yet we arent responding and we are sort of numb to it a particularly we had testimony in a previous hearing between one and 2 of the isr research is Global Leaders under our control in looking at the drug importation problem. I think thats a misallocation of resources. If this were a attack killing 110,000 people every year we be turning this country upside down and to not be allocating the most basic important intelligence resources of isr during this fight is unconscionable. I hope you will go back to the administration and the Intelligence Community and say this is a worldwide threat that is the most immediate threat to american lives. Absolutely senator. I think you know the leaders of the Intelligence Community completely agree with you. This is absolute critical in and each of us are involved in a series of efforts to try to expand effectively our collection. Ive been asking these questions for years and everybody agrees but i keep seeing one or 2 . Im looking for action rather than just simply expressions of concern. General berrier do we have any information that you could share of chinese provision of provisions to elections in the Ukraine Border because in my view that would change the calculus suddenly russia had an infusion of ammunition and other munitions in order to counteract the actions of ukraine. Senator we watch this very carefully and publicly china has said that they would remain and we continue to watch them. You mentioned in your testimony and i noticed subtly you said this has been a bad year for russia and ukraine and the next tracy said that russias very dangerous. Whats the analysis of the likelihood of putin using a Nuclear Weapon . What would trigger it and how likely is that . Senator there are a number of scenarios that we have gone through and id be happy to discuss those in a closed session. I think in an open session could you tell me whether you think there is some likelihood or possibility . I think in the nature of conflict theres always that possibility but we think its unlikely. Unlikeliest good. Id rather hear it wont happen but we can discuss this further in closed session. Can i . Its very unlikely with our current assessment. Thank you. We can discuss that further in closed session. Director haines yes or no question with exploration of fish expiration at 702 be a compromise . Yes. And can you testify heliport it is but i dont think it comes across this is one of the crown jewels of our intelligence capabilities. Yes and as an example 59 of every pvd aarp president s daily briefs are sourced to 70 to information. I give you a sense of just how critical this is. It is utterly fundamental mike could not understate the value it. I know you struggle with this in your Opening Statement but the problem is the importance of it is hard to demonstrate to our membership without compromising classified material. Thats the dilemma. I think we have to accept your representation which i understand you are talking for the entire Intelligence Community. This is an essential element of their ability to protect the country. Yes absolutely. Thank you. Thank you mr. Chairman. Thank you mr. Chairman it like to express my condolences to the family and friends of the late general stewart. Good morning to our witnesses and thanks for the testimony today. The greatest military challenge that we face is really at twofront competition as you have laid out so well this morning between china and russia. I do agree with your assessment that china and russia will make strategic ties which does create potential threats and lets be clear but we have heard you say over and over again as we see china and russia dancing they are clearly encircling us around the globe. China proclaimed in no limit partnership on the eve of russias invasion and she matches went to moscow and affirmed that commitment. We watched all of that unfold on their television sets. Director haines first to how has beijings assessment of the junior partner in moscow changed since the invasion ended to you general berrier did the recent joint military exercises express a deep bird deepening military commitment between the two . Thank you. In terms of how the relationship has changed and particularly chinas perception of it since the invasion of ukraine i will say even before the invasion of ukraine we recognized that china and russia were getting increasingly closer and we were saying a cooperation across all different sectors but to your point since the invasion that has accelerated to some extent and in part this is due to the fact that russia is increasingly the holden two and needs china and china perceives russia increasingly as a country that was all ready in the little brother rolled up was how was described. Nevertheless they have greater leverage. That can manifest itself in the various aspects of the relationship such as the arctic where they have differing interests where china wants to have more power and authority in that area and russia recognizes they are going to need china and their investment in order to get to the resources they are interested in in the arctic and theres a consequence that china could seize the opportunity in light of the current scenario with russia. We see that now at the peak of their economic trade continuing military exercises and other types of collaboration and its moving as we continue to assess that there are limits ultimately that they are unlikely to get to the point if being like nato allies for example. Thank you. General berrier . Senator its been gradual but the complexities would be joint exercises mostly in the air domain and enable domain. They dont have a lot of insight into more sensitive activities but i do believe its deepening and growing. Thank you and to both of you as well with this partnership and the deepening of their military commitment through exercises and so forth how can we find a wedge and really divide the two countries by driving a wedge between them . What can we find is a strategy to separate those two powers . Its a great question. We have done some analysis and i can get you a more thorough explanation rather than my quick remarks but i would say we do see some challenges for them in getting, as they get closer and closer largely one can recognize there is a tension of asymmetry in the power of every relationship where you can actually use that to some extent to exploit some of the challenges but i think it is unlikely we will take them off the trajectory of getting closer in the coming years. Senator its a really tough problem and its a great question and there would be some things we could discuss in closed session. Excellent without i will yield my remaining time. Thank you. We have for five minutes. I do recognize the importance of section 702 authorization and information given to the president daily to source their sentence or two however americans do have a constitutional right to not be searched without a warrant so despite the efforts of congress there had been examples of the Intelligence Community using 7022 target u. S. Citizens and its not supposed to happen. Your own office of annual transparency reports suggested 2020 when the fbi conducted approximately 3. 4 million queries of section 70 tear of acquiring data on u. S. Citizens. Clearly its not enough. I have a series of quick questions id like to ask for your response. Imposing a warrant requirement for the government acquires data were Americas Communications camp or your intelligence gathering against reliance on foreign actors . Thank you. Two things, one of 702 is only permits the targeting outside of United States. So to be clear if the u. S. Person were to be targeted under 702 that would be and that is something thats when you talk about the 3. 4 million searches that the fbi did thats not where they are targeting u. S. Persons. What is happening there is a lesson for of the data that they brought in from pfizer that the fbi was able to search and when they are doing searches often what they are looking for his connection that allow them to identify victims up for example Cyber Attacks or things like that. They are searching to an existing database to see if theres a connection that ultimately would allow them to make that connection. We can talk about this more in a closed session to give you greater detail but for example within the 3. 4 million, 1. 9 million or so related to a particular cyber attack. To give you a sense of the difference thats not something that is necessarily, in other words is not something subject to a warrant per se but as a general matter if we had to seek a warrant for every target of a person of broad theres no question it would have more of an impact and make it much more challenging. 2. 4 million inquiries and Data Collected through an upper prius 702 inquiry of foreign citizens outside of the u. S. , i think there is concern. My next question is what steps in judicial oversight to prevent Americans Communications and information hamper your intelligence gathering efforts against foreign actors . To make sure im understanding you correctly if you are asking whether additional reforms that we would be willing to make where absolute open to it. The attorney general and myself wrote a letter to congress letting you know that is something we be happy to discuss. I mention we have engaged in a number of reforms in the last few years to promote additional oversight and we be happy to talk about that. Im running of time. Their concerns about limiting to the 702 target and perhaps existing judicial reviews. I look forward to working with you. You did mention in your testimony you have an influence center and he noted that china, russia and iran may be doing things that would interfere with their upcoming elections. Can you give us an example of the tools they would use in how the alert our elected officials to this kind of interference . Absolutely. We do and did relatively recently focus on election interference. There was a unclassified that we made public as well. The kinds of things we look at are in fact efforts by adversaries including russia obviously engaging in information campaigns or other types of disinformation worked to try to undermine candidates or positions along those lines and we do share that information with the department of Homeland Security and with the fbi and they tend to be the ones to make the connection to Election Officials within the United States. Theres a fairly Robust Network that has been developed in order to provide this kind of information. Thank you. General, thank you very much. I did have some questions for you that i will submit for the record. High senator cramer. Thank you both for being here and for your service. I had to step out for while to take a phonecall. The reason for the question was as you know the administration yesterday announced scrutiny over land purchases around military bases in the ad eight or nine bases in texas. Iowa, to the 100mile radius for highly sensitive base in other words given jurisdiction within 100 miles. You may recall last year they dealt with the chinese purchase of some land near a ground force for facility. And they said that idea lets not do it. Since then we have had jurisdiction because it was only 12 miles from the base. My question isnt a comment. Rather is there an increased intelligence or scrutiny of land purchased by foreign entities particularly adversarial . Yes its a simple answer. In a sense over the last many years now just as the broader context and i suspect you are denote this. Basically if we had enacted tools such as cfius for example using the chinese as an example, they have figured out ways to get around some of these issue to try to achieve the results that they are trying to achieve and we have seen in the mechanisms on a bipartisan basis that the administration has enacted, expanding from the cfius stature to executive order that allows for the review of transactions where Telecom Companies for example telling Telecom Services where that information may be. Theres a variety of examples of scenarios in which that issue at least has come up. General anything you want to add . Clearly counterintelligence and in the purview of the doj and the fbi from a foreign perspective we see this activity and other countries around the world and clearly its a threat. Thank you. I want to comment on the questions about isr and the one and 2 dedicated specifically to drug trafficking. Is that simply her prioritization or do we need more capacity with the isr is one to 2 as agreement but do we have enough in general to cover all of the things . Every Combatant Commander that speaks for this committee will say the same thing that they dont have enough isr. Certainly technology can help and advances in space and sensing capabilities but its a really difficult conversation with her southcom partners. Thank you. I suspected as much anywhere bright it is unanimous. Director haines im going to shift gears. Its easy to talk about the Big Worldwide threats that they are other smaller ones that may not be a significant. Still significant. That is whats going on in haiti. I have a number friends involved and in fact im stunned how many are involved in charitable work and they are just distraught about whats going on in haiti. Its proximity and maybe you could tell me a little bit about what you are seeing in haiti and to the degree you are able to tell me is being done and what can be done quick ceasar policy questions i understand that. I think we could engage a little bit and not just let it fall. Thank you. I couldnt agree more with the fact that this is a vaccine issue in the one that should be focused on protecting tell you from an Intelligence Community perspective we have been looking to try to find ways to support and im i understand the policy is looking at addressing the situation from the perspective of training and to sort of try to manage the violence says has erupted and gang control of territory in this area. I would say briefly first of all we have a lot of and provide you with the best we have on this. None of it is optimistic. This is a really challenging situation and its not one thats going to get better anytime soon. Are there security concerns along with the moral and ethical concerns . I think there are security concerns and moral concerns. When you look at the credibility and the government institutions their ability to provide services and at the same time this rise of these organized criminal elements that seem to be taking over challenging Security Forces soberly perfect storm and in our hemisphere we are paying attention to that. Thank you senator cramer. Senator warren. Thank you mr. Chairman heck. Cryptocurrency is now a method of choice for countries to evade sanctions so they can form weapons programs and promote crime in cyber attack. Crypto crime is hidden but we know in 2022 alone there was over 20 billion in illicit transactions. We also know russia iran and north korea moved around at least a billion dollars using crypto. Lets focus for just a minute on north korea. This one country stole a recordbreaking 1. 7 billion. According to the u. N. Security Council North korea uses this crypto crime to fund its Nuclear Weapons development. General berrier you leave the Intelligence Agency which is intel on Foreign Military including on north korea and when north korea launders billions of dollars worth of crypto and funds it into its Nuclear Program does that threaten our National Security . Certainly senator if north korea steals that money and turns it into a legal currency it helps them build their Nuclear Capacity and that is the threat that we recognize. Director haines earlier this year the u. S. Intelligence agency which you be put out its annual threat assessment which identified cryptocurrency is part of day and im quoting here sophisticated and agile espionage cyber crime and a threat so let me ask you does the sophisticated and agile espionage cyber crime and attack risk underminer National Security . Yes, absolutely had to pull it apart and say its not just although obviously the funding is critical its not just the funding of Nuclear Programs that the dprk may have involved but also include Cyber Threats in the network and part of what we see is as a National Security threat. Thank you. Let me give another example. 2029 study found nearly 5 of the wrote Bitcoin Mining takes place in iran. The biggest crypto mind in the country is run by the revolutionary guard corps and is backed by chinese investment. How much sanctions evasion or were talking about here . We will one Crypto Exchange alone and finance has processed 8 billion worth of iranian transactions since 2018. General berrier when the revolutionary guard corps accuses Crypto Mining to replace revenue does that threaten our National Security . Senator it certainly threatens our u. S. Forces in the region. Cryptocurrency and the corn is one method of how they finance their operations so certainly a component of that. Thank you and i have one more example here. And that is russia because russia is ransomware central to the most prolific and dangerous ransomware gangs are thought to be run by criminals and russia. Russia affiliated ransomware gangs have stolen from american schools, american hospitals, American Power stations and american businesses. Director haines you know what portion of ransomware is paid in crypto . The vast majority of modern ransomware is in cryptocurrency and when the demands arent met they probably are paid in that form. Part of the challenge for us is identifying specifically how much is being used, and using cryptocurrency. Fair enough. But when the Homeland Security committee put out its report and said basically its 100 does that sound right to you . This is a Business Model built on crypto is it not . Yeah. The vast majority is perfectly reasonable. And the general berrier gangs in russia and around the world are using crypto to demand money from power stations and businesses. Is that threaten our National Security . I believe so senator yes. I appreciate your answers. Just think about what we are talking about here. North korean Nuclear Weapons iranian sanctions russian ransomware drug trafficking, human trafficking. Some of the major threats to our National Security are facilitated by crypto and that is why senator marshall and i will soon reintroduce our bill to crackdown on illicit crypto activity. Her bill is not about regulations are cracking down on crypto and gams although i think we need to do that. Our bill is about Law Enforcement a National Security to keep our country safe. Thank you mr. Chairman. Thank you senator warren. Thank you to both of you for being here. Xi in last 12 months have given operated speeches that hes preparing the chinese population for war. What should we take from that and how to each of you assess that . As we listen to xi jinping and his style of communication he has been on a longterm campaign to oversee now that hes in his third term. We see his rhetoric picking up. I believe there are a number of different people. We talked about 2025, 2027, 2035 and 2039. The bottom line is hes told his military to be ready, for what we are not sure and when we are not sure. We watch this very closer and we evaluate closely every word that he says. And his speeches. I certainly agree with everything general berrier is said. The reality is he has drifted his military to provide a military option for concern of our intervention and that is something that will have an impact on his capacity and decisionmaking presumably. Do think the position of the american if they did decide to invade taiwan and we came to taiwans aid and what impact would that have on our economy clocks c obviously we cant provide the scenario will matter when it happens in all of those things will be critical to providing an assessment that is without question in there have been studies done by external think tanks and others on the amp in Economic Impact that invasion of taiwan would have on the Global Financial economy. The manufactures of chips in taiwan is blocked and it will have an enormous Global Impact to over 1 trillion on an annual basis for several years on financial economies is the general estimate. Those chips and advanced chips are over 90 come from taiwan and they are in almost every category of Electronic Device around the world. We would need to make up the difference and it will have an impact on our gdp if there were such an invasion of taiwan. It would also have an impact on chinas economy. I think thats another aspect of this and an impact on their gdp. Watching the impact, the Economic Impact on russia as they have invaded ukraine was sanctioned not an exact comparison but it gives us an idea of how to model this if it happens. What is your assessment of risk and not america and we are talking about haiti. They have allowed our adversaries in maduro to do the exact same thing in venezuela. What is your assessment of the risk of bad actors in latin american whats the risk communist china will be able to open up military bases . For the time being i would say the risk is moderate. The chinese and russian actors in central and south south america and is something we watch very carefully. The above specific messaging campaign there are attache network to talk about why this is a bad deal for them. Watch it carefully. I dont think they are close to acquiring a full Operational Base in central and south america. What is your assessment of what germany has to make sure they will do everything in their power to make sure ukraine succeeds in a war against russia. Honestly germany has exceeded our analyst expectations prior to the war effort sample and his commitment to providing a ukraine and detained them as an ally on this issue moving forward. Thank you. Thank you senator scott. Senator peters. Thank you both of you for your testimony and your service to our country. Mr. Haines the proliferation of cameras, commercial satellite imagery and social media helped create an environment where intelligence is often one step behind that sometimes a step ahead from traditional intelligence gathering efforts. The buildup of Russian Forces as they prepare to invade ukraine was welldocumented with both domestic and foreign observers able to confirm troop and vehicle movements and identify and tired units who are moving to the front. I was also taken by an article by the modern War Institute and some quotes from intelligence operators talking about the intense need for intelligence as this war was progressing and in the same cole we reflected only a fraction of what was needed. This was not a surprise with the largest war and europe since world war ii occurring. Intelligence capabilities are in high demand. This did not however diminished the frustration of blocking out of this gift turning on our phones and gaining access to more relevant open source content than we had at our workstations. Opening Source Intelligence and fields of Nuclear Silos and the buildup of shipyard activities into your troops along the front in india and open Source Intelligence seems to be democratizing the intelligence field and i want to make sure we are adequately prepared to harness this activity. My question for you in comments to what changes must the community make to ensure the committee is intelligence gathering particularly as these new technologies coming on board and democratizing our upper series. How were we looking at this problem . This is something that has been a big focus and i know general berrier has a lot in the open source space for the Intelligence Community. First of all we are in a position where really every element has a version of opensource that they are working on however we are not in a position where recio the entire Intelligence Community is leveraging the best of what we can do in this space thats something we have been focused on. We have we done a study to look at how to improve our efforts and how we can leverage each others efforts in this space and we will hear from general berrier and also how we can investigate in ways that support eventually what we collect clandestinely and allow us to reach the two sources of information so we can make sure its more insightful but at the same time to recognize there is value in using open source to help to reveal a picture of whats happening and share that with the world. At the same time on the flipside let me mention two things that i think are worth noting. We are very conscious of the fact that in this area we have to be extremely careful about how we approach Civil Liberties issues and one of the issues we know has been a concern for many members of congress is how we do with her example commercially available information and information that we may purchase as part of our efforts to engage in trying to make sure we are developing technologies and frameworks to make sure we are handling that information appropriately and when we collected, collecting it appropriately and finally recognizing spyware and our adversaries access open Source Information that are far more sophisticated in their capacity from a counterintelligence perspective. Thats something we will try to manage and focus on. General. You just briefly senator opensource is a new frontier for the Intelligence Community and also as the enterprise manager for department of defense i have to make sure the dod entities doing open source collection and analysis and the data sources and how much they pay that we have the right tools and training in tradecraft so we can go for can go for forward to make sure open source augments everything we do and whats happening out there in the world. I appreciate that question. Thank you general. Director haines. Your assessment of irans second war tanker in a week two can we take that in closed session . Thank you very much. General berrier southcom commanders have been stating for years the chinese influence is increasing we are at risk of losing her status as the partner of choice for many allies in the region. I just a lot of time in panama. You agree with this assessment and if so what does this have on the homeland . I agree with general richardson and we should do her thing we can to talk to our partners and allies in central and south america about the value of the United States brings. The same thing. Do we see an imminent threat and that area . Not an eminent military threat but theres a reputational threat and theres an economic threat with ukraine getting resources quickly and we have to be insightful and thinking through how we beat that. Director haines im concerned and we are all concerned about the threat of terrorism especially since afghanistan. In march general pirela told this committee that the United States could do an external operation against interests abroad. In under six months with little or no warning do agree with this assessment . The one of her colleagues races earlier. I would have to check with our analyst to see if they still agree. Thereve been some developments since that statement was made but thats the timeline. I agree that isis remained intent on looking to do external attacks. General. Senator our line is Something Like six to 12 months. Sometimes at different points we may be slightly different depending on where we are and what we are looking at. Thank you. I yield back. Senator rosen please. Thank you mr. Chairman and thank you all for being here today. Its good to see you here and in your thoughtful answers. I want to delve been on what the senator was talking about in countering the rising chinese influence and dr. Haines we known recent months china has rapidly increased its engagement around the world. Brokering, trying to broker agreements between preestablished diplomatic ties between iran and saudi arabia to probe for peace deals between ukraine and the russian aggressors. They highlight chinas persistent presence and attention to it assert its influence and global power so how can the u. S. Address chinas increasing involvement in global diplomatic matters and to expect to see more countries try to turn to china and what do you think the applications would mean to us . Thank you senator. Obviously china is engaging is not a challenge or problem. Its how they engage and the way in which they use that engagement to undermine norms and International Order and the way we quite a bit of time and Intelligence Community trying to map out how they are approaching in order to do just that and i would say this is a place where we have been looking at their efforts to essentially garner influence and change the direction of International Organization so as to course their particular approach to global mars which is more aligned with the authoritarian system and look at organizations such as the ip you and other places places where their basic concerns about chinese influence and efforts in that something the policy community is focused on trying to manage. Another aspect as you rightly point out their efforts to try to create coalitions. I would have to say in that area we have had success. They are at things like the 17 plus one form that they have tried to do and because they took a bullying approach to trying to get other countries to do what they wanted them to do backfired and they werent able to influence and their others that are important to her work moving forward. I believe china is trying to enhance his reputation on the global stage. When i look at the example you gave clearer security carter partner with ukraine and we also have influenced and we are in discussions with those partners every single day on really tough issues and whether those are military diplomats in the Attache Service or the work that our state department is doing. I want to build on this because they want to gain a hold their and their partners in the region if they want to hatch what they could see as americans diminishing globally gauge meant. So based on what they are talking about how do we reassure our allies and partners in the middle east but more broadly that we will remain a force for stability and security in that region . Even our military commitment in the Central Region u. S. Central command is active is in this area. In qatar we have deployed forces there and is not a large number but they are. We have longstanding relationships with these partners of to communicate with them to demonstrate americas resolve in the region. We had a recent trip there and that was the biggest concern from the abraham accord countries that we visited that we would remain steadfast. And speaking of the region i only have 33 seconds left i will quote for the record that i want to talk about iran and russia in their defense cooperation about the sale of russian aircraft and air Defense Systems to iran. I will do that off the record unless you can answer in 30 seconds. C certainly this is a relationship of convenience at the moment and i think the iranians are getting benefits for providing emissions and we will see where this goes. Thank you senator. Senator mullin. Thank you general for being here and i want to make a quick question about the believe its pronounced bogner but its the wagner grew. I will save these questions for the closed session. Right now we have seen in my opinion and id like to get your opinion in my opinion the bogner group to do a study literally around the world and in my opinion truly in my opinion they are acting more like a organization then they are a malicious group were Contracting Group when they are sowing instability spreading lies exploiting Critical Minerals around the world are pressuring governments to distance themselves from us. Would you describe that danger is acting more like a group . I would absolutely support the perspective that bogner is working in ways that is actually driving terrorism particularly in the continent of africa for sample. General . Its a really interesting question and when you look at their Business Model and how they tried to build security in nations and pick a paramilitary operations and support those nations there are some atrocities that have been committed. I dont know if ill goes far as calling them a organization. Said i was very careful in saying acting. They are acting more like that. Certainly you could draw a conclusion like that, yes. And they typically go into these countries that are in disarray and they offer to provide security for the stations and would you agree thats what they do in these countries at times . Certainly i want to switch gears real quick to china. According to some open sources china now is controlling the river that runs through argentina and south america and is charging taxes in the name of the prc for goods being shipped in and out. We also see that they have influenced basically in all of south america except one country and general you said we are fighting back with information. But it seems like those countries are more in need of infrastructure dollars which is what chinas investing. Are we winning or losing in south america with Information Technology and providing the good deeds that the United States does . Certainly we are talking to our partners about this every day and whether we are winning or losing its hard for me to judge that. Im not tracking this river in argentina where they are collecting taxes but where theres infrastructure for airfields they can build upon they will take advantage of that. Are you familiar with the influence that they have or the past 10 years in Central America . Yes, i am. Are you familiar with the only country they dont have a foothold on in south america . And general this is and then i gotcha question. I do find it somewhat concerning because the information is not hard to find and its not its concerning to me when i have such a Strong Influence and Central America which is growing but in south america we are losing. I would say we are too far off from losing control of the panama canal and i believe you would probably agree with that in some sense. If the courses and correct pretty quick they will open shipping lanes and there there would do great . But that certainly requires u. S. Attention yes. That would put into the role of the issue to which china is trying to get all the world dependent on them. Is information enough or should we be looking at a different strategy to correct course . Ranging into the policy sector certainly its more than we can bring. Boeheim need that information the American People need to know why rushes back knocking on her backdoor and its extreme concern. I would think that china is trying to destroy america from within and slowly choking us out. With that i yield back. Thank you very much senator mullen. Thank you chairman and general and director thank you both for being here and for your service as well. Id like to focus on the indo pacom away our fridge is a little bit. Director haines in this years threat assessment it states expanded military posture in india and china along the disputed order elevates the risk of the armed confrontation between two powers. What do assesses the risk of india and chinas forces erupting into conflict . Its not insignificant. China has been building up its infrastructure along the border and continues to increase their presence and we have seen eruptions at different times. We have obviously been working to try to support them in their efforts. Thank you for. General the buildup that the director referred to what assistance if any is the cia providing to our india partners . We have through u. S. Indo pacom we have a relationship with them and we are attempting to support them. Thank you. Director just last week the chinese built the coast guard ship. It appears these are becoming more and more frequent so are these negligent or intentional encounters and what is the assessment of the purpose of china doing this . We have some good products on this and if you are interested we can send them to you. What weve seen with china is their coast guard over the last many years they have begun to use their coast guard so in other words they pass laws that would allow them to use their coast guard to police in effect what they perceive as being their rightful waters and to use force under certain circumstances so i do see this as a larger comprehensive effort that they have engaged in and there are three different pieces to it. Theres the ship that they use that are part of the militias that are not part of the coast guard and the poa and then theres the pla and the relationship they have with each of these different forces that sometimes intersect. Say i think you have a question for both of you and director we will start with you. Whats your assessment of the chinese militarys ability to commit an Amphibious Assault on taiwan and are they now effectively ready for a major Amphibious Landing the director first and then you were referring us to the closed session. Is there anything you can share in this setting please do. I would honestly defer to general berrier on their capacity and we would probably do it in a closed session. Appreciate it. I would say a very complicated military operation. We have observed exercises where they review the point on the operas like this and we can go in more detail in closed session. One final question for you general china militarys power report came out in 20 chance for your soma. The new version was published today what would the topline changes be . The was the military balance of power changed in asia over the last four years . I think we would describe the advances that they have made in every domain of the military capability in the short four years. We talk about space and we talk about their expanded Nuclear Capacity and we probably talk about their expanded reach of indo pacific and some the things we are talking about like the maritime coast guard and those actions. Thank you both again for your time and for your service. Thank you. Director haines cbp is reported that thousands of chinese nationals have come across the southern border an increase of about 800 to think is the most recent estimate. I guess the question for you is what are some of the factors causing this . Thank you senator. I dont have a full answer to that. Why dont i give you that in writing. Okay. Im not trying to trip you up here. My hope would be the Intelligence Community has some idea why we are seeing this increase. We have done some analysis on this and id rather give you a full answer. Okay thats fair. I guess i will ask you do you expect or do you see an increase in the number of chinese nationals coming across the border . At further what ive seen is it went up and its gone down a little bit is my recollection and can give you something. My concern obviously with title 42 expiring has accounted for about 50 of all the expulsions i think. It is very concerning if this is an intentional effort by the ccp to send assets across our southern border. I think the American People deserve to know whats happening and i dont think we do. Its a very concerning development and its ongoing and we see an increase in my concern is given one of the tools its been useful in sending people back is going away and would need to be prepared for that. I guess switching gears and this could be for either one of you but i will start with you director haines during the disastrous withdrawal from afghanistan billions of dollars worth of valuable equipment were lost or left behind i should say in addition of course to the brave servicemen who lost their lives. Just to put that in perspective there was 48 million with ammunition and the aircraft, 23,000 humvees and two and 50,000 automatic rifles 95 drones 42,000 pieces of sensitive military equipment including night vision goggles. How have the taliban utilize this . What do we know and have theyve been selling this to ever series and wheres all this equipment and hows it being its . Largely our understanding is the taliban have organized their Security Forces that they have fallen in and i havent seen a lot of reporting that would indicate that they are selling it. I think they are trying to incorporate it into whatever Security Force they develop. Director haines. I do want to ask about an afteraction report on the withdrawal from afghanistan that obviously was a total mess. What are your plans to provide an unclassified afteraction report here . There were only some senators who are even able to see it. Given the nature of this and there has been public reporting about what is out there that seems just sort of blame the previous demonstrations and i think this is one of the more disturbing failures in at least modern history and i guess what are your plans and an accounting of this of what went wrong and make sure this never happens again. Poor d you have plans to do that . We dont have any plans to provide classified interaction reports. I cant speak about that. This is not a partisan statement. The idea what happened in afghanistan, the fact that the American People have not to this point gotten an actual thorough review of an afteraction report of what went wrong and how we can make sure this never happens again is deeply concerning. Its being asked of other people but i just think when the memory of the men and women who were lost in all the equipment that i mentioned its a total debacle and we have to do better. I suppose we will be working with you to figure out what information you can provide to more fully inform the American People. Thank you. Thank you very much. Ive been informed that senator sullivan is en route so i will take the opportunity to further ask a few questions but it wont be indefinite. One of the issues that we are facing is the proliferation of virtual media and now what is approaching is the next threat of ai. Do you have any concerns that ai will disrupt our life dramatically and there are steps that we should take now. I know the administration has announced yesterday that they are taking steps and in terms of the Intelligence Community how are you going about this . Thank you very much senator. Its wise to be focused on this and it will have an impact. We have been writing some analysis to look at what the potential impact is on society and a variety of different realm and obviously see some impact in intelligence activities that we can talk to in closed session on. What we also recognize is the do not have our hands around what the potential is and what we have been doing in the Intelligence Community there had been many elements forming task forces looking at these issues who are trying to understand ai as youve noted and we have been trying to facilitate groups of experts to essentially connect with those in the private sector on some of these developments so we can make sure we understand what they see as potential uses and developments in this area. Thank you very much. Just a quick question listening to the discussion about withdrawals in afghanistan most of that equipment and supplies were committed to the afghan army and that was a planned commission. That was not deliberately leaving at the hind. That was for the afghan army which we all hoped would continue. That will size the plan. And the plan was developed under the trump administration. That is correct. Also in terms of think i agree obviously that this has to be public but we should all be aware that the congress and this committee authorized the commission to study the entire situation in afghanistan over 20 or period and it will publish the results in those results will be available to the public and there may be classified material but it will be available to the public. Saying thank you chairman. Appreciate the witnesses being here. Director haines i want to follow up quickly on ai. If you happen to read the very long and insightful piece by Henry Kissinger and eric schmitt the google founder and senior m. I. T. Professor on ai . Did you read that . I know exactly what you are talking about and its on my pile. I havent read it yet, you apologize. I would strongly recommend taking a look. Theres a whole focus on it today and they are all these great opportunities. Henry kissinger still going at it and i think hes turning 100 here soon, incredible mind. He has insights that are very chilling to the use of ai and on the National Security front of think it would be good for you guys to come back to the committee. We are trying to figure it out. Technology and they say is the best thing since sliced bread and other people say its running the world. Putting the Tech Companies fully in charge dont think thats a good idea either. We really need your guidance and i think it would be good if viewed come back to that topic and take a look at that. Its really wellwritten and pretty scary to be honest. These are people who are prone to the pollyannaish. Let me turn to my favorite topic, energy. I always like to recount the stories in its quite a sad story because im sure you know Vladimir Cara mrsa is in jail for 25 years unjustly sentenced in the hope we can let him out. All he was doing the speaking about the democracy and truth. I had a meeting with him just me him and senator john mccain and i asked him what was the most important thing we could do to undermine the regime in the grip that he is has on his society and the danger it presents to the world. He looked at me and he said an easy answer to produce more American Energy. More American Energy is what russia fears. So can you talk about two things . One is russias attempt to use energy as a weapon and they are pretty good at it. We would want it to some degree in two on the flipside i read the intel about about what chinese leadership and what xi jinping thinks. They are very scared of American Energy, very scared. So can you talk about that as well and i think some of the products you have and then maybe i know you dont provide policies that could do have this element in American Society and to be honest in the Biden Administration and some of my colleagues in the senate are like oh my gosh we cant any more. No offense but its. Places like my state of alaska the high standards in the world of producing it. If we are going to need it we should it and not shun venezuela and saudi arabia. Any thoughts on that and i love renewables but we need oil and. People can close their eyes and scream we cant in alaska but they have no idea what they are talking about. And you guys do so please enlighten us and dont be political here. I know the biden demonstration is an independent operator john carrier and john kerry. These people are and they are undermining our National Security. The facts are there china is fearful of American Energy dominance and wants to use energy as a weapon that this would do it is the advice to me and john mccain more American Energy. Thats how you undermine putin and what are your thoughts on all those very important topics . We need factual analysis on the stem really important topic from you. Thank you senator. I know how passionate you on these issues. It wont be political but i want to touch on policy. But i will say absolutely the Intelligence Committee believes Russia Uses Energy as a weapon and its something they have tried to do during the course of the conflict and in partnership calculations one of the things we know that they were focused on was the crisis for europe and how that would affect interview europes calculation on sanctions and they turned out to be wrong. In any event that is part of the picture i think. From the chinese perspective i would tell you an area we a lot of focus on is on chinas efforts to try to control the Global Supply chain that leads to Clean Energy Production and that is a place where we see them very consciously looking to try to control what might be related to the Critical Minerals that are relevant to clean energy and we have to look at the analysis on that and to provide that to you. I will leave it at that. Systemax general if you dont mind in sorry mr. Chairman i have one question thats related. We did ask last year our military to look at options in the event of a conflict with china to choke off oil and supplies. Our navy could do that and do you have any thoughts on that or maybe we should talk about in a in a classified setting. I do have thought senator. The starter in russia Weaponized Energy i think they appeared in the state. They have made it painful for our European Partners early in the war and they offered it to other partners for nefarious regions to acquire more military hardware. Your comment about weaponization is really accurate. I dont disagree with you that chinas potential for energy. They fear our economic power all the time. Two the point in the ndaa think those are in the purview of what the pacom team and their Planning Efforts is that proceeds and then we can talk more closed session. We have a vote going on with my colleagues. I would suggest we reconvene at 12 15 to have an opportunity to reorganize a bit and i will at this point adjourned the open session and we will reconvene at 12 15. Thank you very much. [inaudible conversations]