front." well, good evening, everyone, i'm erin burnett. out front tonight from cnn's election center. an episode of survivor how republican presidential candidate, rick santorum described the iowa caucuses. here is the thing about iowa, no offense, iowa, you are really important. you are also small. only 2 million registered voters. 640,000 republicans. if the 2008 caucuses were an in caution of what is a head for tomorrow, only about 100 tough those republicans will actually go out on a cold january night to cast their votes. and those who do, only a 50% success rate when it actually comes to picking the eventual nominee. so what's all the hype about iowa? the bottom line is it has a huge influence in who stays and doesn't stay in the presidential race. maybe small, but it packs one big punch. listen to candidates today. they know what is really at stake tomorrow. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we're looking for a commander-in-chief. we're looking for some one who has experience, someone who can lead. >> the next generation is here today. that is why we have to change things today and bring back the traditions of america which means liberty, peace, and prosperity. >> this president has failed. he said if i can't get this economy turned around in three years, i'll be looking at a one term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to talk it back. take it back. >> all right, i'm here to collect. pretty optimistic. three-way tie in the latest polls today. some already downplaying expectations. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think if you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> all right, so they're all out talking. one thing amazing abut iowa. talk about what a punch it packs. take a look at my walls. i am real excite ad about my walls. two walls. you will see amazing things they can do tomorrow night. show you this, iowa's poll, example of what we have seen. this just shows the point of how volatile and how important iowa is. this is among republican, likely voters in iowa. from june through now. you can see mitt romney was number one back in june. as we progress a little bit further. you see michele bachmann number one in july with 32%. rating right there. romney number one. in october. but then you see the rise of herman cain up to 34%. highest to that point. mitt romney. once again. but really hovering right in that mid 20s which is where he has been effectively stuck all the way along. herman cain, again in november. then when you see herman cain get out of the race on the accusations of sexual harassment, you have newt gingrich. that was a real surge up to 33%. ron paul then, 28%. as the leader. and then, mitt romney, once again. but still in the mid 20s. at 25. and you see mitt romney there. had this gone a couple more days you would have seen rick san tore up who doubled from 11% of likely voters wednesday to 22% on friday. which is pretty stunning. as you can see, all those different leaders, since this began. so a few votes can make a huge difference. that's why iowa is so important. because a few votes can make the difference between a win and loss and between who eventually becomes the nominee for the gop. that's where john avalon comes in. you looked at this back in 2008. the margin of victory between a winner and runner-up. not very big. >> not big at all. the difference between mike huckabee who won the 2008 caucuses and mitt romney who outpent him, invested so heavily. 10,000 votes. >> stunning. >> stunning. the difference between the number three person, fred thompson, and ron paul who came in fifth, less than 400 votes. you are talking about very narrow margins. this is a high intensity, low turnout election. it's not even prrepresentative the state of iowa. highly conservative. so it is, skews right. and the margins we're talking about are very tight. >> high intensity. right now, benefits, rick santorum who has momentum. looking at "the des moines register" poll. 76% of people who are going to vote for him are going to the poll. highest of anybody. and something that happened today may actually influence that. here is rick santorum and his wife just a few moments ago. >> it is so important to -- to recognize for the family, to recognize the life of that child. and for all of the children to know that they had a brother and sister. [ applause ] and they did. little elizabeth. they were young. but elizabeth was here. i know it's hard. it gives you opportunity to see that -- that we all go through this. this is part of life. >> obviously rick santorum very conservative, and as you were just hearing on john king passionately and for years fought for the partial-birth abortion. can he win? does he have the staying power that mike huckabee did not? >> look there is no question he has the big momentum at the right time. we see a lot of crocodile tears in campaigns. a moment of genuine emotion. it helps project authenticity, realness that people really want to see in a candidate. something mitt romney butted up against. if santorum can coalesce the voters who keep looking for an alternative to mitt romney. the big mo at the right time. he cannot only have a win tomorrow night. then he can performs reasonably well in new hampshire, very different electorate, oech and into south carolina that becomes a long protracted play. you are going to see ron paul supporters are very intense. they're not going away. those are the top tier. there are going to be surprises. rick perry trying to put forred a are -- forward a ground game. newt gingrich saying i'm a victim of negative attacks. here is the key if you trying to see if you stay in at the end of the race. if you are appealing to conservative voters, coming in at the bottom of the race in iowa, you have a big problem. >> what made you make your decision? an adviser to rudy giuliani. he did make his big bet in florida. when he lost he got out right after. how do you make the decision, if you are not a winner when do you get out? >> figure out which state is the best fit for you. florida tend to be the tiebreaker. in the case of florida, the florida strategy. when florida didn't work out. when he came in third in florida he knew the game was up. he pulled out the next day and endorsed john mccain. if you are a social conservative candidate, running on the conservative populist train, and rick perry, michele bachmann, at the bottom of the caucus tuesday night. you have a real problem. do you pack up your tent? endorse some one else, call it a good fight. or camp in south carolina. if you do that, a fractured conservative field an asset for mitt romney. >> thank you very much. there could be no better setup for the person that joins us now. one candidate who is here, poll numbers ion wa, surge, as you saw, the leader this summer for a while. and then fall, congresswoman michele bachmann. the latest des moines register poll has the her at 7%. which, would put her, according to this poll, in last place. six out of six. she joins us now from des moines. good to see you, congresswoman. fresh it. nice to talk to you again. you know it's interesting how john was putting this. if you are a conservative and, a social conservative, that iowa is a must-win state. do you feel that way? if you come in last in iowa, does that make your, rudy giuliani moment? >> well we are looking forward to tomorrow night to see the results. because we have done what no other candidate has done after the last debate, in sioux city, iowa, we got on a bus. we traveled 6,900 miles through all 99 iowa counties. and we saw quite literally thousand of iowans on the spot, flipping from being undecided to voting for me. voting to another candidate to voting for me. the biggest issue in the last debate was the issue whether iran should have a nuclear bomb. ron paul said he had no problem with iran having a nuclear bomb. i took on ron paul. i took on newt gingrich. i took on mitt romney. people saw in me some one who is capable of taking on, president obama, defeating him and going on to be president of the united states. and so i think tomorrow night, we'll issue a very different result than what people are seeing. because again, still, 50% of the people registered at the polls as the undecided in iowa. i have a very strong suspicion we'll see a lot of people coming out and voting for me. in addition i have over 200 pastor endorsements across the state of iowa. no other candidates has that level of evangelical support. i think we really need to wait until tomorrow night to see what the results are. >> and you are -- a statement said you were the biblical candidate. bib li biblically approved. can you explain what that means? >> i am the candidate that i hope will be iowan approved. iowans will stand up for me whether fiscal conservative candidates iowans because of all the candidates i am the strongest fiscal conservative. i am a federal tax lawyer. i am a successful private business woman. for five years i have been fighting against out of control spending in washington. that's what iowans are looking for in their next president. they want someone that will stand for them and stand against washington. i have been proven and tested. that is a big difference between myself and other candidates. mitt romney is a big spender. newt gingrich, big spender. rick santorum voted for the bridge to nowhere. all about earmarks. so we can't have our nominee be a big spending republican. we need to have a fiscal conservative and i'm the one of all the candidates that fits that bill. >> let me ask you though, if coming out of this -- you end up in a situation where -- you have rick santorum, you have perry, you have yourself, and you all continue and nobody gets out. what you end up doing is splitting the conservative vote. therefore, handing the nomination on a silver platter to mitt romney. if you were staying in in up with that outcome are you all right with it? >> this is conventional wisdom on the part of the punditry it will probably bear no relaotian to reality. this is very early in the book about the 2012 election. a lot of chapters yet to be written. people thought i didn't have a chance to win in the iowa straw poll. yet i defied the odds. i was the first one in the history of the straw poll to actually win the race. there is only been one statewide race so far. i have won it. we have already bought our tickets for, going to south carolina. we'll be on a plane after the iowa straw poll, we'll be campaigning for three days in south carolina. then we'll be on to new hampshire. we'll participate in the debates. we look forward to being the nominee of the republican party. and defeating barack obama in 2012. >> congresswoman michele bachma bachmann. thank you. good to talk to you. you heard her say she will be on the plane no matter what to south carolina right after the caucuses tomorrow. well, los angeles authorities have made an arrest in the rash of arsons that have really put the area on edge. so who is the suspect? and did anger at the american government play a role in the fires? this is an interesting story about immigration. plus, a shooting rampage that led to the murder of a ranger at mt. rainier national park. that its over. and a former iraq war veteran believed to be the shooter dead. and the father of baby ayla, the missing todder from maine spoke out for the first time since his daughter disappeared. the vegetables are cut nice and thick... you were always good at cutting your vegetables. and it's got tender white-meat chicken... the way i always made it for you. oh, one more thing honey... those pj's you like, the ones with the feet, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night? 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>> well, we know that his mother had recently undergone some kind of immigration hearing. and that it didn't go well. that he was very upset about it. now the question is, was it the motive for this particular crime? obviously, with his arrest now, and this was information about the suspect provided by federal authorities to the arson task force. so obviously one of the thing that they're trying to do is establish is this the motive, are there other factors involved, and this is part of what they're moving forward today very quickly with this investigation following this arrest. >> and you are reporting, indicates that he was perhaps from germany? >> that -- our law enforcement sources are telling us that he is of german origin. obviously the van -- had british columbia, canadian plates, which adds kind of an element of mystery to it. did he go to canada first? how long was he in the los angeles yar? was he in the los angeles area with his mother? those are things that are still kind of unfolding. and things that we are pursuing in reporting this story. but, again, obviously four days of pretty terrify nights where the fires were just popping up all over the place in a very tight area and time. >> all right, thank you very much. andrew, we appreciate it. as we said, reporting on the immigration story on whether, the man had originally been from germany has been the one who broke all of that for us. well, in washington state tonight. the massive search for the killer who went on a shooting rampage and gunned down a ranger at mount rainier national park is over. authorities say a body found in snow-covered terrain is that of benjamin colton barnes, an a rack key war veteran, suspected of murdering margaret anderson, park ranger on new year's day. the victim a mother of two. shot at a checkpoint leading into the park. the gunman who allegedly wounded four people at a house party then fled into the woods. now barnes served on the front lines in iraq and may have suffered post-traumatic stress disorder, some are saying given what happened. although of course there is no definitive link at this point. the big question is what is the motive? what happened? why would a 24-year-old man go on a shooting spree like this? a mystery that a lot of people want to solve especially as we have so many people who sacrifice so much coming home from the iraq war. joining us now forensic psychologist, michael brannah. good to have you with us. is this something that would indicate by any of the behavior of what you saw that they could be linked to ptsd? >> well it certainly could be. with post-traumatic stress disorder, combat related post-traumatic stress disorder often times what you find is people who have a heightened sense of danger and reaction to danger. what in essence they do is they strike out or have plans to defend themselves in situations that ordinarily are not dangerous situations. it is not uncommon to see individuals especially those trained with pep ponz to overreact in a way where they employ those weapons against enemies who aren't really enemies who they overreact to, or overestimate the risk of that actual person's intent towards them. >> i mean this is a horrible tragedy. if indepd it was linked to ptsd. if we are able to know that, we have all of these troops coming home. are they being diagnosed and treated or do we have potential for a lot of people with, whether minor, major cases of this, who just are going to, at the least, lead very stressful and unhappy lives because they're not able to get treated? >> it is really a great question. because many of the people returning from the war, the soldiers returning from the iraq wars, and really, all wars who have been through combat, severe comb battle, are at risk for post-traumatic stress disorder. and in essence what may happen to them is that they may return home with horrible traumatic memories of casualties, of murders. of being in fire fights. of being in incredible danger. they may in turn not be identified. may not be identified because they don't talk about it. they keep it to themselves. they hold themselves up a lot of times and are embarrassed by what they're experiencing. >> muk cal thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> iran says it developed its first nuclear fuel rod. the big question of course -- is this just the first step to nuclear weapons? general marks comes out front in tonight's outer circle. your wife says she really likes farmville, what is she doing on facebook? farmville, that's tonight's number. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three years we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love science. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪ according to the british divorce website, divorceon line, yeah, there is a site, a third of all divorce petitions filed in the uk last year that cited unreasonable behavior also mentioned facebook. not kidding. that's a sharp increase from 2009 when one in five petitioners mentioned facebook as a reason they were fooling for divorce. this is probably why we have seen social media cheating sites popping up on line. according to a rep from the company, quote, social networking has become the primary tool for communication and is taking over from text and e-mail in my opinion. mark keenan. if some one wants to have an affair or flirt with the opposite sex, that's the easiest mras to do it. also a profitable place. which brings us to $100 billion. the dollar amount facebook hopes to be valued at as it moves forward. based on the value analysts expect facebook to net $10 billion when its shares hit the market. that estimate would make it the sixth biggest ipo in american history and $100 billion market capitalization is huge, it is, two ford motor companies. but it is still only one quarter the size of apple and about half the size of google or wal-mart. analyst ss expect facebook to fe its ipo first quarter of the year. reuters, reports 1,000 new millionaires will be minted, hopefully they don't go on line, facebook, have an affair and lose half in divorce court. count down to the iowa caucuses. unemployment down. housing is up. housing prices up in iowa. there is a number that might really matter. the latest from maine, baby ayla has been mission and her father speaks out for the first time. 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[ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. we start the second half of our show with stories we care about. we focus on our own reporting, do the work and find the out front five. first to night countdown to the iowa caucuses. michele bachmann came out front, polling below 10% in iowa. i asked her what happens if she doesn't have a strong showing tomorrow? >> this is very early in the book about the 2012 election. there its a lot of chapters that have yet to be written. people thought i didn't have a chance to win in the iowa straw poll. and yet i defied the odds. i was the first one in the history of the straw poll to actually win the race. there has only been one statewide race so far. i have won it. we have already bought our tickets for going to south carolina. we'll be on a plane. >> going to south carolina. tickets bought. number two -- an independent panel will examine hazing at florida a & m university. the same school where robert champion died from hazing. an attorney representing his family told "out front" that we hope that the famu administration focuses its time and resources on developing substantive strategies that protect its band members from hazing, that is the legacy robert would have wanted. champion collapsed on a band bus in november. one band member said champion died after taking part in a rite of passage where a band member is beaten while walking down the aisle of the bus. number three -- venezuela, claiming victory in a legal fight over its oil. the south american country said it will pay just $200 million to exxon mobile. that's just a fraction of the $10 billion exxon wanted after venezuela nationalized exxon's oil assets. oil is big business for venezuela. we looked at the numbers. oil makes up 95% of export earnings for the country. it is a major supplier to the united states. and nearly 1/3 of venezuela's gdp is oil related. america relies on venezuela, 10% of oil imports come from the country and used to be a huge country for consumer products as well. manufacturing fell for the fifth month in a row in december. likely it is going to drop into 2012 according to a survey released to day. european crisis taking a big toll. but an economist at the chicago federal reserve told "out front" something i think is way more important. the united states is going against the global trend saying manufacturing is going to grow in this country in 2012 and the second biggest economy in the world, china, biggest competition to the u.s., but we need them is seeing gains in manufacturing. that would be fantastic news. well it has been 150 days since the u.s. lost its top credit rating. what are we doing to get it back? well the economy is a big issue in this election. in iowa it may not be issue number one. all right. let's take a look at what we have data on the economy. look at unemployment in iowa. pretty amazing. you have got unemployment down and housing prices are up. look at the jobless rate in iowa. 5.7%. almost 3 points lower than the national average of #.6. but the number that really stood out to me when we ran the numbers from zillow.com. median home prices in iowa up 14% since the 2007 peak in housing prices. average housing prices are down more than 30%. yet you have them up in iowa. it is stunning. partly because of state's -- ethanol and farm based econ me. now the economy is still not doing great. there are a lot of issues there. voters may be less concerned about it than say florida, or south carolina where unemployment its 10%. how big a role the economy played in deciding who to support tomorrow is something we'll be watching and doing that with the help of our magic wall. gloria borger will be with us. >> write down a new name for this. john king has a magic wall. >> i don't want to do anything. we can fling things on to the other wall. we can catch, throw. this is sort of an acrobatic wall. maybe. come up with a name. but there is all the things we can do. faces we can show. a couple things i know you are looking at tomorrow, the electability question. and, so let's take a look at that. this is "the des moines register" poll. what does this tell you about what iowa voters are thinking? >> well, it tells you that this is really good news for mitt romney. mitt romney has been selling himself on somebody who can beat barack obama. one thing that unites all republicans this election season they want to beat barack obama. you look at this number for mitt romney. 48% say he is the most electable. gingrich is trying to sell himself that way. ron paul says he can go the distance. but, down the line. this, this, so, if, if romney were to win tomorrow, this would be a very big part of the reason. not because people love him. but because they think he can possibly win. >> right. this is something we should let everyone know. in the entrance polls, we have a slew of questions are you looking at electability, are you looking at values? brings me to something else you want to talk about. who best relates to iowans which tells a different story when it comes to mitt romney. >> right. mitt romney, remember at the beginning of this campaign we spent a lot of time saying isn't mitt romney going to compete. it competed in 2008. didn't work out well for him. big evangelical contingent here. don't really love mitt romney. then he decided to jump in. has not spent a lot of time in the state. which is why he is at 10%. but, look at michele bachmann, by the way not doing very well. although she said to you she is going the distance. but, she spent a lot of time in the state. ron paul has a great organization in the state. rick santorum, has had over 350 townhalls in the state. that's why these people do well on, whether you rethe law to iowans. whether that is a calling card for winning the presidency is something else. but iowa is a tossup state. it doesn't hurt. >> when you look at the split in terms of registration, ds and rs evenly split. what is your view, gloria, all this conversation about rick santorum, suppose he comes in first, second, does he have the staying power, i was talking about this, that john huckabee did not when he won the state? >> nothing succeeds like success. >> back a winner. >> they want to back a winner. want to give money to a winner. rick santorum had a heck of a time trying to raise dough, suddenly if he does well will have the wind at his back will have an easier time raising money. now, whether he can go the distance? you know, who knows. he could do very, very well in south carolina. we just don't know. he's being portrayed as an insider, somebody who supported earmarks, voted for the debt ceiling. he is going to go to a debate and let's see how he is treated as a punitive front-runner in the debate. we don't know. we'll see how he does. >> gloria and i will be here at our walls tomorrow. ooh, we are excited. >> very excited. >> seriously this is some cool stuff. >> big secret. tell you tomorrow. >> as we said, mitt romney the most electable by a landslide. when you look at the 48%. at a cnn iowa insider survey, 2/3 in think mitt romney will be the winner. mitt romney does too. listen to what he said on the campaign trail. >> we are going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything that we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up other states and to get the ballots i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> all right, let's go straugt to somebody who knows mitt romney darn well. kevin madden, romney's 2008 campaign adviseor. kevin, great to see you. do you think that sort of talk is the right way to go? i mean, you and i have been talking a lot over the past couple months. you have managed expectations you. don't expect to win iowa. not a big deal if you don't. but now it seems things have changed do you think he is going to win? >> well i think there is a lot of moef men tum on the ground in iowa. you know? i think governor romney goiz out to these events, davenport, or des moines, he has had incredible turnout of people out there showing support for him that he does feel warmly now about his chances. but i think what governor romney is talking about is his ability to win the nomination. it starts in iowa. that's something that we have to remember. iowa is not where the clock end but where the clock begins on this campaign. he is going to work hard in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, florida across all the early primary states to earn the nomination. >> if he comes in second or third is that a romney loss? or do you see it as long as newt gingrich isn't ahead of him that's a win for mitt romney? >> well, i think the plan was always to compete strongly. i think a position in one of the spots would be one where he showed that he did compete strongly in the state. but i think most important to this campaign is this is a campaign that is one that is won over the long haul. if you look at all the other states. new hampshire, south carolina, florida, they all figure prominently in the delegate fight. until, so nominee, gets 1,144 votes. that's when i think that, we'll finally know who is going to lead the republican party against barack obama. so i think unlike other campaigns though, we don't have off to win iowa inned or tire gain this momentum and build up all of the -- support from a financially inned or tire make it to another state. governor romney can compete well in iowa and go to the early primary states and still secure the nomination. >> which seems clear. when newt gingrich had his big urge. we had all those. we were covering all the big money lunches and dinners in new york he had no problem raising money. i will show, kevin, the viewers something i showed them at the top of the program. this is iowa since june, since the front-runner, you see romney, michele bachmann, keep touching these, everyone take the lead. he is among them. six, seven among the lead. what i am highlighting dark red for viewers, mitt romney never goes above 26%. never goes below 23%. last time 25% didn't win the state. are you frustrated with this national problem where he can't get above 25%? >> well, what good is it getting 39% in august, september, when now you are at 11%? i think if you look at governor romney's support. he has had a very strong resilient number. all the way through the entire campaign. and that's why, that was the plan which ties make sure that we are competing very hard so when you get to these contest thousands. we are here in january going to iowa, new hampshire. this is whaur yere you get the s still having been persuaded, undecided to come into your fold. you try to win those. compete strongly in the contest. win the nom nination. all the other campaigns have gone up and down quickly. governor romney has stayed there competitive the entire way. >> kevin madden, thank you. talk to you soon. >> tomorrow night at 7:00, our coverage of the iowa caucuses, wolf blitzer, anderson cooper, our political team analyzing the results here on cnn at 7:00 p.m. eastern. got to tell you we got the -- the acrobatic wall. it is very, very cool. all right, so now let's turn to james carville, strategist and cnn contributor. >> from the wall to me. i can't compete with that wall. >> that wall. that wall is something. >> all right. what do you think about kevin madden's point. they try to make the point he doesn't go below. doesn't drop. he is stable. resilient. don't worry that he will never go above. >> it is a good point for them to make. he is kind of steady. but i know that the romney people are banging their heads against walls. the last thing they wanted to know was for romney to say we are going to win tomorrow and talk how he is going to build momentum across the united states. and talk campaign strategy. i am sure that they would have much rather him talk about message and, said we are going to do fine here. do fine as he goes on. i thought that was, he doesn't make many mistakes. not a major mistake. little mistake. >> one of the sound bites that comes back. let me ask you something that is interesting. obviously about this caucus, the caucuses in iowa. you can go in as a democrat. go to the door. say i will become republican for tonight and go in and vote. >> don't need an id card either. >> that opens up another can of worms right. always all kinds of conspiracy theories how much of that will happen whether there will be spoilers and people from the other party trying to influence. operation chaos we call it. you have been an adviser? >> it's hard enough to get people to cup oome out for your guy. much less. the well is not that cold, it's still code. and there are not that many people, many democrats are going to go out. >> got to be a real hater. >> real hater. not a big, big problem. >> what about from the obama perspective here? what outcome is best and worst for the president? >> i think -- the thing that keeps this going. i think this process is good for the president. i think the republicans, professional republicans and republican strategists would luke for it to end on the night for this. this has not been the best process for the republicans. let's not kid ourselves. this has been a pretty unimpressive field so far. i think they would look to see romney win in iowa. go to new hampshire and win. try to tie this thing up pretty soon. that's the sa theina scenario tt want. >> that the republicans want. not what the president wants? >> not the scenario the president wants. he wants to see santorum's surge continue through south carolina. >> we were pretty pro -- the democrats were, maybe david axelrod, for herman cain. any one i would have taken. michele bachmann was filling in for a while too. >> james carville. thank you very much. >> thank you. love the wall. great wall. >> great wall. that's what it should be. >> yeah, got a name. >> think you just did it. well in tonight's "outer circle" iran says it developed the first nuclear fuel rods. nuclear weapons are they far behind? the question may be ready to answer? and baby ayla missing since mid december. why is her father speaking out only today for the first time? ♪ [ telephone rings ] [ laughs ] [ mayhem ] please continue to hold. the next available claims representative will be with you in 97 minutes. 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[ dennis ] introducing the claim satisfaction guarantee. only from allstate. dollar for dollar, nobody protects you from mayhem like allstate. we do this at the same time every night. our outer circle where we reach out to our sources around the world. we begin with iran tonight which says it succeeded in building and testing its first nuclear fuel rods. now will they use this knowledge to build nuclear weapons? here is retired u.s. army gener general spider marks. >> we have to assume iran will use its nuclear capability for hostile intent. for us to assume, for the international community to assume otherwise would be a perilous path. we have to get iran to open itself up to international inspections. test firing long-range missiles into the gulf. is it trying to prove it could hit israel and american bases in the region? >> iran's intentions are very, very clear. they are a regional power and they are extending their capabilities and their increased military capability clearly is directed against israel and their ability to try to shut down the straits of hormuz through which most of the world's oil supply passes. >> now to north korea where south korean president is offering to cooperate with the north. the south korcor korean preside willing to offer economic aid to the north for kim jong-un ending the nuclear program. north korea blames the u.s. military stationed in south korea for preventing peace in the region. north koreans once again calling for america's 28,000 troops to withdraw. gordon chang is author of "nuclear showdown." he told us what would happen if america did withdraw those troops. >> north korea has demanded that the united states withdraw its troops since the end of the korean war. so it isn't going to happen now, but if it were, it would destabilize the region from south korea to india because in the last couple of years china has become more assertive in ways that are unnerving its neighbors. they're looking for the united states to re-engage in asia, not to withdraw at all. so we're going to be there. the father of baby ayla, from maine, who has been missing since mid-december spoke out for the first time about his daughter's disappearance. justin dipietro has been asked on the "today" show about why it has taken him so long to come forward. >> initially the first few days, i was emotionally incapable of coming out to do an interview. i had been advised that by coming on and doing an interview by law enforcement that it could possibly hinder the investigation, and i'm here to help in any way i can. >> marc klaas isn't buying that. you may remember his family's tragic story. his daughter polly kidnapped and murdered in 1993. he's now an activist for people who are trying to find lost children. marc, always good to see you. why are you skeptical of ayla's father? >> happy new year, erin. first of all, this whole idea of not talking to the press when your child is missing really is a failed concept from a time in the past when victims of parents of missing children were supposed to sit by the phone and wait for the ransom call to come in. that doesn't happen. there's no better advocate for a missing child than that child's parent. >> why do you think police haven't named him as a suspect? we've been covering this story from the beginning, they always indicated that they thought that he was, but they haven't named him, he hasn't been charged. why do you think that is? >> it's a matter of evidence. i suspect that they are still gathering a lot of evidence, trying to figure out exactly what happened, the series of events that occurred that night. as i said before, the universe of possibilities here of suspects existed within that house that evening. they'll take them apart, they'll try to find inconsistencies, then put a case together. >> so they now say it's a criminal investigation, not a search for a missing person. so what does that mean to you? >> well, that means you bring in different resources and you look in different directions. they're probably no longer looking so much at the stranger scenario simply because that happens so very infrequently. they're looking at the family. they're looking at peripheral contacts. they're looking at registered sex offenders. they're priing in different resources. they've changed jurisdictional agencies and they're using different types of experience than they would in a missing persons case. >> marc, always good to talk to you. >> thank you, erin. all right, now, we're just a few minutes away from "anderson cooper" and he's in iowa. i know it's cold there. what do you have on deck? hey, erin, it's anderson. i'm in des moines for a special edition of "360." all the latest on what the candidates are doing. this is the last night before the iowa caucuses. what a fascinating race we've seen with all of them, constant surging, somebody becoming a front-runner only to fall back in the pack. tonight it is rick santorum who appear to be having a late surge in the last few months in iowa visiting all 99 counties. what santorum is doing to can'tize on his surge. romney, they're confident tonight, they're out campaigning tonight. we'll have all the latest on the campaigns and the latest poll numbers as we come to you live from des moines. >> looking forward to seeing you then, anderson, in just a couple of moments. i spent last week doing something that i really, really love. and next, the 411 on gps. no problem. you want to save money on rv insurance? 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