Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141216

Its been. To talk about swings, talk about crude oil, talk about the ruble which after that surprise decision by the Russian Central Bank yesterday to raise to 17 , the ruble immediately jumped up 10 and then fell back by about 8 and a 20 percentage point swing here. If you just looked today and didnt know what happened this morning you might think its an expected reaction and hide a lot of volatility we have seen, again, in global asset glasses here. Whiplash is only term some people are using to describe it. Yeah. No doubt. In the major averages right now, where we stand on the street. Theres the s p 500. A fractional mover. Thats sort of again helps to tell the story. Again, back under 2,000. The nasdaq under pressure today to the tune of 17 points and this ones interesting because some of the decliners on the session of note include tesla back below 200 mark off 2 . Amazon off 3 and meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial average seeing a gain of 40 points t trying to hold on here and interesting, scott, given that the biggest decliners are not the names expecting today. Home depot, microsoft, nike. Joining us is michael underhill, kevin giddis, james lu, Rick Santelli and our chief International Correspondent michelle carusocabrera. You want to put this last 24 hours in perspective . Russias a fullblown currency crisis and how it plays out remains to be seen and theyre punished by the decline in the price of oil and expect the ruble certainly to go lower. Central bank of russia is in full war position. They have to do something to try to stem the decline in the currency or else they have to start having real trouble figuring out the pile of reserves, help Russian Companies prohibited by sanctions of Western Banks to roll over more than 100 billion of debt next year coming due or defend the currency . Choices are tougher and tougher. Whens it mean for investors in the United States . We want to wait to see the ripple effects, whos on the wrong side of this trade . Is there a big fund thats going the wrong way and could cause a spreading of risk in the markets. James, who do you think are the winners and losers . I think rush whys going to continue to see pain and not ready to call a bottom on the ruble. I think theyll use rhetoric and the reserves and that is going to spill over into other countries with commodity exports as a main driver like venezuela, obviously. Whens the impact on europe in particular here . How exposed are they to a russian deep recession . Europe is clearly much more exposed to the United States, not just because of the Energy Sector and the trade but the financial sector, as well. I think fewer linkages here in the United States and i think the market is misjudging the impact on the u. S. It is true that the Energy Sector is a big drag on earnings in the Fourth Quarter but we are gong do see a huge bounceback, especially in other sectors and i like the u. S. At this point. Rick, people are trying to make comparisons of now and the 90s rerelating to the currency crisis. Are the folk there is on the floor talking about a possibility of contagion of a magnitude of back then . Of course theyre discussing it around the water cooler by the difference is that any of the seasoned traders on this floor know all too well that when you see something coming and discuss it, its a whole lot different than the surprise factor when they me it isstastst of thin air. From the citizens, from the Business Energy standpoint and then the other side of the ledger, thats Corporate Finance and credit issues and right side of the ledger, i really think people are underestimating how janet yellen and company will use this as their weather effect with regard to policy. Ive always suspected personally that theyre not really in a mode to tighten or remove more accommodation. But boy, they wait any longer and theyre going to be trying to tighten at an end of a Business Cycle and then this comes out. Listen. If it wasnt this, it would be Something Else. When you are in a hunt for yield and you have certain groups like hedge funds and too big to fail banks of transmission of liquidity, it is put to work. How many shows in the last year we discussed how tight the spreads were and how junk was behaving at price structures that seemed illogical . Thats for sure. Lets talk about some breaking news with Mary Thompson on General Electric. Mary . General electric is holding an annual Investor Outlook day today and the head lines crossing from the presentation given by Ceo Jeff Immelt. The company saying basically 2015 earnings between lets call it 1. 72 to 1. 80 in line with estimates of 1. 79. This is a breakout on the industrial side and around 60 cents from ge capital. Some other headlines from that, 2015 industrial organic growth of 2 to 5 below 2014s growth levels and importantly the company sees issues. Fx, russia, oil and gas is headwinds going into 2015. And we want to focus on this oil and gas segment thats a driver for ge lately. Its expecting revenue in the segment flat to up a bit. Those are the headlines. The presentation is ongoing and more headlines coming up in the 4 00 hour. Back to you. Were hearing from jeff immelt tomorrow on this network. Would you characterize what youve heard as conservative . Is that the right way to characterize this . Conservative and as they put it in the presentation thepragm. Especially coming to oil and gas. Again, which is a key focus for invest to recalls heading into this meeting. Mary, thank you for now. Michael underhill, want to on this note ask whether you think some of the disappointment if you want to call it that in this outlook has to do with the recent news on oil and gas here for General Electric, do you see a buying opportunity in this name . If not, where do you see it . I see high volatility, low gtp growth. Ge not a bad name. They have exposure to energy and looking where theyre positioned right now, it is a marathon. Not a sprint. And if you go with a name, a name like ge is a safe bet. Kevin, you know, we have a cocktail were trying to digest today of falling oil, of russia, and tomorrow we get the fed. Hows that going to play out . Well, it is interesting. Treasury market is beneficiary of a number of things, whether its europe or china, whether its the fall in oil prices and now russia. And owl of this points to as rick stated something tough for the fed to have to try to make decisions on. They can affect shortterm rates easily. The long end of the market is mostly out of the feds hands. What they have to do is figure out where do they domestically. Is there anything to do now . Between now and 2015 without the fed having to do a whole lot. Kevin, a great point, but i just wonder, if you start to look down the road and think ultimately, look, we have had a long run already here both for the expansion and bull market. Some point it comes to an end and the fed needs a response to that when it comes. Theyre probably not going to want to wait too, too long to raise rates if only for ammunition down the road, right . Yeah, kelly. I think so but theyre calling for rate increases for the last six years. Every time we hit december, januarys higher rates and then by march its a folded story and i think you are right. I think the fed has to and they can raise shortterm rates and not hurt the economy, certainly not affect the long end of the marktd and where inflation is a better story and probably start a trend of higher rates on the short end and get away with it. We have seen the curve flatten 50 basis points in the last 3 months. Michelle, i wonder the new wrinkle in that story of what the fed may do and when it may do it related to currency issues in the emerging markets directly impacted negatively if the fed raises rates. Sure. The strong dollar in terms of what it does to corporate earnings and causes the slowdowns in various sectors in the United States and weve had investors, bill gross and paul kruger, two very prominent individuals, paul krugman is not convinced. Why would you want to raise rates when the rest of the world is going into a spiral, possibly . And krugman said hes trying to bully into not he used that word himself. His term. Exactly. Michael and then james quickly and then we have to go. Talk financials. What do you do with the sector of exposures to the i dont know what you call it. Flight to safety. Michael, you first. Well, when i look at it, high volatility, low gdp growth, a low Interest Rate outlook, go for Energy Limited master partnerships, timber, agriculture. Anything thats yield. But sustainable dividend yields. Pay yacht in terms of financials for a bipolar trade. James . I dont agree that rates stay this low. Janet yellen hasnt flinched all year, weather, ukraine or recent volatility. Rates havent flinched either. Sorry to interrupt. I think they take out considerable time in the msz and and start to raise rates next year its moderate and steady. All right. Thank you all so much. Michelle, appreciate it this hour. Keeping us up to date on the fastmoving events. We have about 50 minutes to go. The dow trying to hold on to a going of about 40 points. S p just barely positive and the nasdaq still underperformer yet again today. A White Knuckle market. Who better to hear from than vanguard founder jack bogle. Well also get his take on financial turmoil on russia, the oil collapse and how safe your money is in this environment and the live poll is open. Tell us if you would invest in the russian stock market wiping out half of the value this year. Is it time to go bargain hunting . Click on cnbc. Come vote. Later, the sony hackers reportedly leaking new emails this time from the ceo. Plus, they have issued a cryptic threat to anyone who might go see the film the interview. Well have jose details. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Oh and could you turn on air conditioning im starting to sweat. Ill just do it myself. Useless. Thats nice. Sets the mood. Have your entire house within reach, even when your devices arent. Introducing relay by wink its like a robot butler, but not as awkward. Welcome back. We have given up nearly all the strong gains of this market this morning. The dow up more than 200 points and now barely up 30. Major indexes are red. Nasdaq and s p off by half a point. Dominic chu probably had whiplash today looking at movers and shakers, right . So many individual stories. So lets start with the Oil Companies moving, i mean, generally speaking to the upside here at oil prices appeared to stabilize a bit in the session here. Chevron, exxonmobil, conoco phillips, hess up. A tough session for tesla shares below 200 for the First Time Since june and not closed below that mark since march here and tesla shares a focus and 3m, boeing and cvs health and raised the dividend by at least 20 and boeing and cvs with stock buyback programs and google shares hitting a 52. Week low after a lowered Sales Estimates for the Fourth Quarter 2015 and 2016 to accounted for Slower Growth and strength in the u. S. Dollar. The firm also lowered the price target, kelly, scott, to 600 a share from a prior 670. Thank you very much, dom, for now. When the markets are as unpredictable as today, you want the know jack, yes, jack bogle. Joining us is mr. Bogle himself, the founder of vanguard. Welcome back. Always a pleasure. And certainly, on a day and a time when were seeing turbulence around the world and trying to make sense of it, maybe some of us need our hand held by a guy like you. What do you make of it . Well, first of all, i seen a lot going on in my career and now going like 62 years but this is a particularly trying time i think around the world. You know . The russian incredible implosion there and the huge Interest Rate hike is going to be have profound implications of europe, particularly in germany and not at all clear, you know, whether its going to continue, whether oil prices are going to rebound. We just dont know those things and what impact it will have on the fed. So i think what people have to get used is a market where if you jump in and out on a moments notice you will be badly defeated. Thats a speculative strategy. I think youve got to set your own strategy, longterm strategy. Stocks and bonds, aloe case, asset and then stick with it or as we say down here, scott, stay the course. Yeah. You dont rejigger your portfolio, jack, at a time like this when nerves rise, theres a tendency to call your broker, your Financial Adviser and say, hey, maybe we should make some changes because im not sure what to did. Well, my basic rule is dont do something. Just stand there. You know . Times of great market turbulence are awful times to make Investment Decisions an they end up being speculative decisions. I mean, earning power of u. S. Corporations and dividendpaying power of u. S. Corporations driving the market in the long run and not changed at all. Drives the u. S. Market. So i think we are in for a lot of turbulence and significant decline. Get used to it. Youre in the stock market. Theres risk. It goes both ways. Jack, you caught some flack for comments about investing in the u. S. Versus abroad lately. Do you think its prudent for u. S. Based investors to keep the investments in this country even if it means sacrificing extra points of growth for opportunities overseas . Well, first, u. S. Companies are international companies. People should never forget that. Half of the earnings of american companies, half of the profits all come from outside of the bounds. The u. S. Portfolio is an International Portfolio and whatever anybody else says. Going international, you know, i tell people, i dont do it. Thats a factual statement. I dont have any profound feelings about it. But id rather bet on the u. S. , earning my money in dollars. I spend my money in dollars and save in dollars. I dont need to get into risk of foreign currencies. If you do the International Portfolio, maybe do no more than 20 is my rule. I dont do that but i dont believe in 52 of your money outside of the u. S. This is a great nation with great places to invest. Great financial institutions. Great government institutions. All a little bit faltering and great shareholder protection. Some people, jack, would also add to great, getting to great valuations in the u. S. Stock market and that the better values just simply lie overseas. You want to respond to that . Sure. First, theres no question if you measure it by price earnings multiple, pes, much lower abroad than they are here. However, counter vailing argument and i would say equally persuasive argument is the reason foreign stocks appear so cheap because there are a lot of risks there that youre taking. You are taking think of russian right now. Think of the problems facing Great Britain and japan and france. The three largest markets in the developed area. You know, i think they have a higher risk an they deserve to be cheaper and they won. Theyre cheaper. Theyve gone down. They havent had a good year at all. U. S. Is probably 10 or 15 Percentage Points ahead this year and even better for the last four or five years and thats a little bit of a warning signal, i admit, but i dont really think about jumping around based on relative valuations unless theyre terribly extreme. Jack, also, do you want to just comment on this question thats hanging and being debated here and everywhere on wall street lately and this period relative to the late 90s when we did see some of the currency crises overseas and the runup of the dotcom bubble and some say Allan Greenspan should have respo responded. How would you compare the two time periods . Well, theres certain similarities as you indicate. I was going to say about what Alan Greenspan should have done and now you tell me. Where was he then . But the fact of the matter is that these things come and go and longterm returns on stocks are driven by dividend yields which are low and price earnings multiples and moderately high so i dont think we expect very large returns in the future but i think well do better in the u. S. Stock market than in the bond market and the international or nonu. S. Markets and that over a long period of time, look at ten years and see what really counted back in that ancient year of 2014. Jack, thank you. Always good to hear a longer term perspective on this. First rule is dont do something, just stand there. Happy and healthy one, mr. Bogle. See you in the new year. Same to you guys. Good to be with you. Thank you. Thank you so much. 35 minutes to go before the bell rings on wall street. Dow holding on to gains but only up 42 after being up more than 200 in the session. Coming up, you heard from jack bogle. We have jim grant to weigh in on the feds policy meeting tomorrow. Find out if he thinks the mess in the russian oil markets impacted the fed and time to go bargain shopping. Do you have a stomach to invest in russian stocks right now . Theyre down 50 this year. Some might be thinking the price is right. Take part in the live poll at cn cnbc. Com vote. The results and the pros weigh in next. Heres a chart to look at. The market vectors rss. The etf down more than 50 this year. That might be tempting some investors to think its a buying opportunity. Well, take a poll right now. Go to cnbc. Com vote and tell us would you invest in the russian stock market . 70 of people said no. Tom liddell says dont say no to russian but another guest said its not Getting Better any time soon. What im saying is what you said. I understand the attraction for a market down as much as this is. But to do so, you have to really have a positive opinion on oil. Right now. And i dont know whether its 30, 50 or 70 but im pretty certain its not 100 and it is important to understand that russia, this is a country whose budget consumes over 50 of Oil Export Revenue and budget based on 100 oil and obviously not happening any time soon. Opec effectively committed suicide and not sure where oils going to pan out. I just think its risky for especially Retail Investors the pile into the market right now. Not even retail. Wilbur ross told me earlier that for even a distressed investor like him, the risk meter is too off the charts to go there. Yeah. Youre right, scott. But, however, if you look at what jack bogle just said, for the disciplined investor whos regular Asset Allocation strategy and emerging market positions and naturally at the end of the year you increase to emerging markets as u. S. Were down and with russia down that much more your allocation might increase 2 . For the average investor with a pe ratio of russia around 4 compared to the u. S. At 17 and getting the yield in the etf about 16 it doesnt seem like a huge risk. Tom, but theres by the way huge currency risk. Talking about dollar terms or ruble terms in russia . No. With this etf, you are invested in dollar terms. However, in like anything from this standpoint its going to feel like youre catching a falling knife. Maybe sorry to interrupt. May be investing in dollar terms but youre investing on the rubles terms. And if the ruble keeps going down, you continue to have a problem with the rsx and other vehicle that is play that kind of game. Okay. So what we have to ask, are we traders or are with longterm investors . This is a similar example back to 2009 here in the u. S. Nobody wanted to invest. Everybody wanted to exit the market. What when will you see ill jump in for a second here. Sure. Parallels to 19980 extraordinary here. I can tell you whens going to happen next. Were looking at capital controls. If youre a company over there or a wealthy individual and youve got, you know, rubles in your pocket right now, you dont care 17 or 57 . Youre saying, get me out. Individuals over there are buying refrigerator and tv sets and doesnt sound like an economy to invest in right now. David, 400 billion in fx reserve russia has. They didnt have that last year. I mean, back in 1998. And as far as debt next year, just come up with 6 billion. The russian government is fine. But this is cascading and kind of spiraling out of control. The next thing, i guess probably the bigger risk to discuss hasnt been brought up is really mr. Putin himself. That is world leader whos gone gotten more irrational with the stair step down in the price of oil and the currency. This isnt the this is a Nuclear Power that sits on 8,500 Nuclear Warheads of which 1,800 are operational. Talking about moving them into crimea. Devils advocate for a second, tom, some people say putin doesnt have a lot of good comments and saw the comments of secretary kerry this morning. Perhaps this is the opportunity to come to some accord with the International Community and receive funding and move past the acute phase of this crisis. Is that part of your argument for buying russia here . I think, kelly, we are not going to know what will happen in the coming weeks and watching a soap opera. For the average investor sitting at home saying, hey, it is year end. I need to rebalance and looking for value, we are not talking about a huge risk at this point because this investment i feel is that ill defend tom for a second if i can. Look at. If you want to play this game and you think that its now the time to invest in russia, give it to active management. Probably winners and losers mean and probably a good year for them . Im talking about in russia, okay. But give it to somebody to really understand the market. Piling into an etf right now buying a shotgun approach to the market doesnt seem like a wise choice. Im not talking about piling in but longterm investing and really what will you do after it devalues and look like after they devalue . Which is highly probable. Well, do we actually know that thats going to happen . They have devalued. We dont. This is done in the past. The ruble almost 80, they have devalued. What is your question, david . What happens if they do a full devaluation . Possibly the next step after they have exhausted their currency reserves is a moratorium. Thats the real issue here. What happens then . Capital control, tom, last word would seem to be a legitimate concern to invest in russia right now and coming down the pike. Well, i think absolutely. We are going to see some big moves in the next few weeks with russia. And i would say, i would bet that putins going to be a little bit more conservative. Hes going to have to. Obviously he has a lot of pride at stake and got the government at stake, as well. With people in the streets, hes going to have to make positive moves. My feeling is a small amount is not a big bet. Two thirds of the people voting right now think it maybe is. Because they dont want to tush wit a 10foot pole as they say. Tom, good to talk to you. You, too. David, see you soon. Theres somebody over there to give us a perspective speaking of drilling down into russia. Jim grant. 30 minutes to go here. The dow trying to stay positive. Now its up 21. Nasdaq down 24. Call it the bow tie sector. Find out if jim grant thinks turmoil in russia and continuing collapse in oil puts the feds planned Interest Rate hikes on hold. And this programming note, wall street luminaries including stephen schwartz, bob diamond and john chanos on thursday aenl lots to discuss. The markets wild swings, turmoil in russia and the oil markets and a lot on tap. It all begins thursday 3 00 p. M. Eastern. Were back in two. Hi. Jon and Pete Najarian here. The popularity of options trading has skyrocketed. But we still hear from viewers every day who dont know how to profit from them. So we wrote an entire book to show you how we trade options. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover the shipping and handling, well send you a copy for free. Look at the rates of return weve made on some of our recent options trades, versus what we would have made if wed just bought the stock. Theres no comparison. 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Well, you know, december 1st bill dudley the president of the new york fed gave a speech in which he said that the Federal Reserve now must pay closest attention to Financial Markets up to and including as i read it the duty of leading them higher or lower depending on the feds view of what policy ought to be. In other words, the fed has now as again as i read mr. Dudley as hes taken upon himself a third reknit which is the administration of American Equity Prices so insofar as the world feels unwell financially, i guess, i think the fed wants to raise rates in a way and mostly it wants peace and quiet and does sflonot have. The trouble is Central Planning business and if i had to bet id say theyll remove the language tomorrow and set considerable time language . Set a face towards raising rates, find it difficult to do technically and reasons to tedious to get into and many blocks in the way having to do the financial market. Theres a risk for the fed given whats going on overseas with the currencies of many emerging markets pushed down. Complicates the question as to it does, indeed. The fed is Americas Central Bank and a steward of the worlds currency and bis said you should Pay Attention because its raining currencies the world over. And the fed i know, must be cognizant of that. A Tipping Point issue . Certainly, certainly a Tipping Point in russia. The average russian wants out of the ruble. Manifest from the collapse in the ruble the past week or so. And that brings up the case of how cheap some of the russian names have gotten if you want to phrase it that way. Youre a kind hostess because you have not mentioned that i was here a few months ago and singing the value of the russia and now a higher pitch and more intense and the value is more commanding. A lot of stocks price earnings price ratios beginning with a figure 2. A good example of this is spirit bank, a dominant bank of russia, commands Something Like half of all retail deposits. Owned 50 plus 1 to the government and credit research, very helpful if youre a bank. The common is priced three times or so earnings. The preferred much less. The preferred yields 8 . Less than one half of book value. These are youre doubling down on that bet which oh, yeah, yeah. I bought some today. They go through rough times whether or not 16 or whatever setting that discount rate and not going to help bank fund itself and looking at credit difficulties in ukraine and elsewhere and this is a rocky road for the bank and russian equities but its proverbial that when something is trading at one half of book, by the way, very Profitable Bank before the soros. Well capitalized. 10 equity to capital. Returning 20 on equity. Went through a very good depression in 2008 with minimal state subsidy and its well managed and this is a fine franchise. Its now if you look at the equity or the preferred is trading at three times earnings or less and less than one half book yielding in the common 6 in the preferred 8 . These are bankruptcy levels that i dont think theyre warranted. Im going to bet that the founder and editor of the Interest Rate observer has an observation on the 10year at 2. 05. Observation is that you cant see them. I think certainly i mean, consider that the ruble has lost all, i mean, russian people lost all confidence in the currency which they have come to observe as a piece of paper of no value. I think the dollar is king of all pieces of no value and 2 plus not very much on the 10year not being paid for the difficulties that all these currencies sooner or later encounter. Are we talking about where rates are here, where german bunds are and telling of a broader and potentially damaging deflationary story that deflation to me is a crisis of credit, not of the one or two prices. If you were to if you look at the world today, yeah, not much measured inflation. Low Interest Rates. We in the 70s would call it nirvana but now theres a cry over deflation because prices not rising at 2 and Central Banks the world over are printing as they have never printed before to elevate the price level. Some are just started and some havent started yet. A quick question on the specific names, we heard jack bogle basically say he only invests in the u. S. Thats diversification. How should people trade them . Invest in them. Im not sure they should its a big world and there are many interesting things to do. I mean, im sure that jack once in a while goes to paris or london. I mean, dayton is fine. Minneapolis is charming in its way and the world is full of wonders and some of those wonders happen to do with investments. So i say its unnecessary to limit ones self to the United States. However, i would tell jack dont change a thing. You are doing great. Jim, thank you for being here. Thank you, kelly, scott. Jim grant. We sort through the rubble. Up next, we have about 15 minutes to go. Look at the. The dow turned decidedly negative. We have been on an about 600point ride and then we were down 100 at the open, almost up 250 and down another 50. S ps off 10 and the nasdaq down by almost 1 . Hello volatility. Up next, another bad day for sony. A new dump of stolen data and a very scary Terror Threat against anyone whos planning to go see the film the interview which allegedly is why all this is happening in the first place. That developing storys next. E for trading never stops, tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 so when a market move affects one of your positions, tdd 18003452550 schwab can help you decide what to do. 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Landmark theaters is hosting the thursday premier in new york told Los Angeles Times they are moving ahead as planned. The fbi issuing a statement to cnbc saying it is, quote, aware of the recent threats and continues to work collaborateively with our partners to investigate the sony attack. Now, keep in mind that the threat of the hackers about the film release from a group december froot prevent it from being released and people from seeing it and comes with reports of a new data dump of emails of the studio chairman. It also comes as sonys hit by the first lawsuit about the hacks, a classaction suit filed on behalf of current and former employees. Sony along with the theater chains amc and regal did not respond to requests for comment. Kelly, back over to you. Julia, thank you. We want to focus on the markets meantime. We have taken a move lower in the Dow Jones Industrial average off about 40 points. Our bob pisani joins us now. Some citing the wall street journal copy of what russia may do. I found headlines of ukraine going. I thought that was fairly optimistic. I personally think that theyre jawboning on the crew yukraine listening time. Theres pressure on russia. This is a strange day. I dont just mean the dow. Germany down 1 and then up 2. 5 . Oil and gold going up 23 and then down 35. Very, very strange day. The markets really trying to figure out russia and oil right now. Bob, there is this apparent wall street journal report of journals saying liquidity of russian markets evaporated and leads one to believe that this story which dominated the headlines in the overnight and Early Morning could be back with us yet again tomorrow and the market may have another issue in how it feels with it. Art cashin talking about 500 million on the downside on the close here. Yeah. Look. Its simple with russia. I think this morning we had a discussion about this. Theyve got a certain amount of reserves left. They can defend the ruble or they can go out and pay their debt that is are out there, particular on their bonds and they need for next year. So theyre under a lot of pressure right now. Certainly wouldnt surprise me to see some very unusual moves happening in the next few days. They have to make very, very serious decisions. May be what the west is doing as scott, we have seen the ruble collapse. Yeah. Apple, for example, suspending the operation of stores there and perhaps as the journal reporting person banks curtailing the flow of cash to some russian entities and always a headline to make the market nervous. This is a very odd situation. We actually now have some real leverage over the russians at this point and obviously its not just the sanctions but the deline in oil affecting it. The question is, does the leverage we have now given their concerns about their reserves really amount to something that will actually make them change their behavior at this point . Thats what we dont know. I also wonder to what extent does the leverage we have start to play a role on our own in the way were looking at it. Absolutely. A great question. Well leave it and pick up with that after the break. Ten minutes to go here. The dow off 40. The s p about 9 and the nasdaq off 40, as well. Plus, General Electric ge holding its annual Investor Outlook meeting as we speak and been hammered. Mary thompson will have the highlights and of course ge Ceo Jeff Immelt himself will speak exclusively to cnbc tomorrow morning in the 9 00 a. M. Hour. Do not miss that. Thanks. [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable Global Commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. Great job. mandarin cut it out. See you tomorrow. You dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Because we do. Were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Because boiling an egg. Isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Life takes energy. Energy lives here. Dave, im sorry to interrupt. I gotta take a sick day tomorrow. Dads dont take sick days, dads take nyquil. The nighttime, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, fever, best sleep with a cold, medicine. Welcome back. We are on the floor of the new york stock exchange. And the dow is selling off as we speak. Down 84 points. S p is negative, as well. And theres a big reversal in the nasdaq down more than 1 . Im here with dan varu, cio and bob pisani, as well. What do you make of a day like this . The fight in the market today is the price indicative of weak demand or too much supply . Both sides its a tugwar of what ultimately that will be. We are in the camp of supply issue and not a demand issue and not yet had the positive effects of this filtering through the economy yet. Is this all a russia issue . An oil issue and a global slowdown issue and thats parallel to the oil issue. I want to see what the fmoc will say tomorrow. Could have an impact on the prism of how they view rates. Thats right. Oil is definitely in the wheelhouse. This is a denationary pressure. I think theyre going to work it in the comment. Id like to see how its influencing their thinking. Dan, oh yeah, the fed, in the midst of this, janet yellen tomorrow. Complicates what shes seeing, better employment in the United States, better demand in the United States and now an oil thing. I think they have to walk up very, very tight rope here. I dont know whether perhaps disagree it could influence the timing on what they do in terms of liquidity measures certainly in tightening. Less than five left. You are coming back with us. Well be back in a moment with the closing countdown. See exactly how we finish out after a wild day. And then after the bell, the putin wild card. As hes backed into a corner, should the world worry about what he may do . That and much more straight ahead. Welcome back. We are on the floor for the closing countdown. I want to show you an intraday chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average because we are going to do a round tripper today. But boy did we make some interesting stops along this trip. Down 100 in the morning. Ramped up at about noon. Up more than nearly 250 points and then a slow and steady grind lower and right now we are at the lowest of at least the last several hours since the morning and back on the floor. Bob, when you look at an intraday chart like this and how were finishing out, hows it make you feel about tomorrow . Were still paralleling oil but not in the last hour. Oil, gold, germany, the vix, all screwy today lets just say. My sense is if theres a bottom in russia, Oil Stabilizes quickly. Oil doesnt seem to want to stabilize and neither apparently ken stocks as long as oil keeps going down. It is interesting, scott, oil stocks did well and sort of broke the correlation to the underlying commodity. That will be a key sign for the alls clear sign to be bigger in Energy Stocks when the commodity might trend weaker or stay low and the stocks begin to rally because numbers are coming down. I appreciate it. Bob, of course, thanks to you, as well. Dow with a loss and kelly has that story and coming up in three second. Thank you, scott. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. Looks like one of the highest voluntarime days in a year and half. I said this yesterday but a triple digit decline and looks like were going out with a loss of 106 today. This after we entered the 3 00 hour with the dow in the green so a big reversal there. Talk about whats happened. And the nasdaq closing low tore the tune of 1. 25 and as these guys will often say you dont like to see the market on the lows like it just did. Is it russia, china . Lets talk about it right now with todays panel. Joining me now is john bussey, carole roth, evan newmark and with us is fast money trader tim seymour. John, beginning with you here. You have lived through crises before. Is this about russia . Is there something snels. No. Largely about russia. And well see how much this reflects back on 1998 when we saw a real crisis. Steve liesman was a reporter at the time and won a pulitzer for the coverage of it. This is not as serious as 1998 yet. Theres not a threat of default. Carole . Not hohohorrible but uncertainty is the word of the day if we had one. Not only do we have russia and the Oil Situation, we have the fmoc going on. Right now, having their meeting, notes coming out tomorrow. And i think that there are these push and pull kinds of issues coming out where on one hand that is pushing the market higher up through midday and then the people on the other side saying, its a little bit tenuous so i think we are going to continue to see the volatility. Certainly i think the russian issue not just in russia but what its going to do across europe in particular. We have heard a lot of different takes notice last hour and people say its a great time to start buying some of the beaten down names. We heard from jack bogle saying he would stick to investing in the u. S. For the time being and jim grant sees some of the russian names trading so cheaply and theyre hard to ignore and instinctively what are you thinking in this environment . As you know i have had a lot of cash for much of the year. We wont talk about my shorting the treasuries right now. I was trying to be charitable. Im putting money into oil stocks over the last few days, big cap oil stocks. Like an exxon or no, no. A mutual fund. I have a vanguard. Okay. Energy fund that i buy and probably off 25 to 30 since the start of the year. Im not trying to bottom tick. Im saying, you know what . The markets in my view tend to be a pendulum. Im not putting your money in at one time trying to time the markets perfectly. I havent put in money in oil stocks in years. Im like, you know what . Maybe its time. Could oil go lower . Absolutely. I would not buy russian stocks right now and thats someone that spent a lot of time in russia. Thats why i was wondering. Tim, we had dave talking about the long only money calling the desk to sniff around in the energy space, as well, here. Do you think its attractive or still too early to make that call . You are talking to a guy trading russian debt living in moscow back in 98, as well. My perspective on this and different this time is i think people dont realize that the we know that russias gone through the cycles of economic fallout and i think a much better position this time. But we are in a place where i think the true sense of partnership, the trust is never lower. As bad as 98, there was a sense we were moving on a path to a better place. Putin is largely invisible in this crisis. I think it is important and good that the western medias picking up on this today and such a big deal because i think mostly people look at russia as a side show and something that doesnt really affect everyone. And i think it does. So getting back to where the markets go, i do think if Oil Stabilizes, it can rally here. Do you want to be buying russian oil stocks today . You dont have to but taking a two to threeyear view on this, probably too long for most people and these companies are not going out of business and in fact theres a lot of people that i think are taking answer chances in here. Its the time to make the most money. Talk about the contagion effect. We saw that in 1994, 1998. This is kind of a repeat cycle a little bit. Youre already seeing it affect the currency in turkey, in i could ne indonesia . Thats a good question. In 97 it was the thai baath that threw us back here. Could russia be that . Turkeys case, a central bank thats very active. Central bank with a lot of credibility. Russian central bank doesnt have any credibility right now and hiked rates and department intervene and people feel like they can push them around so i think its a time when emerging markets are trading at multiyear lows and not sure id be shorting into the hole here but a place where investors need to think, hey, some of the places are way overdone. The world is a better place. If oil going to 180 right now, would people be questioning whether a lot of companies that are actually going to benefit of that benefit . On the flip side theres companies to do very well. Theres a lot of countries that will do very well. Asia will do well. Well, thats a central question. Talk about oil and erased losses after a five and a half year low overnight and michael levy joins us. Michael, good to have you here. Tell us what your perspective is now having witnessed almost a 50 drop in this key global commodity, one of the most important ones that we have. Has it now do you think found a bottom here . You have to be a fool to try and call a bottom right now. Whats amazing is that the physical imbalance isnt huge. Its a million, million and a half barrels a day and thats led to this enormous plunge in prices and a reminder that it doesnt take that much of a swing in either direction to pull it way back up and same time a lot can push it further down. We dont have the same stabilizing forces as 20 years ago and what that means is small changes can have these enormous consequences. Michael, its evan newmark. I want to understand why this is bad for probably the three biggest economies in the world. I mean, four, in fact. Yep. Why is a declining oil price bad for the u. S. Economy, the japanese economy, the european economy or the chinese economy . How can this possibly be overall bad putting aside the issues of currency instability or things like that . Cant be bad for those economies and if you look at the estimates out there, theyre generally saying that if prices were to hold at this level for the next year wed see maybe a half a percentage point boost to gdp. China would also benefit but part of what matters is that the impact on Energy Sector stocks is felt immediately. Upside boosting consumers is felt later so the stock market doesnt necessarily move immediately in the same way as you would expect the broader economy to. Ill tell you how it can be bad. Youre not only a boost of supply but you have a decrease in demand and the demand side of the equation is where it can be very bad and russian situation and japan in a recession. We have the eurozone teetering back on going back into a recession or snot chinas slowing. Carol, these are already theyre given facts, though. Jap japans economy is slowing for Everyone Wants to downplay it and now its a situation where the Oil Situation has brought this to light and the demand side of the equation you asked how it can be bad. Im telling you. When oil prices go down, generally increases demand. So when you have the price of gas goes down dramatically in the United States, people tend to drive more. Youre assuming thats a leading indicator versus the lagging indicator. When people go to fill up the car and they see that the gas prices is down by 1 a gallon versus a year before thats a good thing for the economy. The reason that its down by a dollar a gallon is because theres less demand ten economies are on the brink of a recession. That is not a good thing. Michael, what do you think . Oil price is that tim . Michael . First the Falling Oil Price is in part of a reflection of a global weaker economy. On top of it, yes, there are some countries that are going to have weaker demand because theyre Oil Exporters and they have less to buy and rush whys an example of that. But that is not going to outweigh the impact of consumers having this much more money in their pocket. John . You have been looking at the big picture for a long time and how wildly shale contributed to global output, how much offshore drilling has taken place and the increase in output there. Is this a secular shift in oil prices to be with us for the foreseeable future and maybe somewhere between here and 100 or a cyclic aal development tha what you described as weakening demand abroad . The two. Theres certainly a big cyclical demand of this. Its difficult to see prices at this low level and hard in the midst of all of this uncertainty to say where prices will end up. I think they ought to be lower than people expected them to be only a few years ago because we have this huge new source of supply coming out of the United States but whether that means that longterm prices are 90 or 70 is almost impossible to predict. I think a lot of we are going to learn a lot in the coming year and learn a lot as shale is tested but also as deepwater in 2 United States and brazil and west africa is tested. Tim, a last word to you and then we have to hop. My question is, ill make it rhetorical, why are we realizing this now . This is about opec as a cartel falling apart, Global Demand is still moving higher, higher at a less significant height and em sensitivity to oil demand is two to three times the rest of the world. Oil is not to be sold too far from here. John . I mean, at the end of the day, one thing that we didnt describe is how much this is contributing to u. S. Health and economic growth. This is good news for the u. S. And youre seeing it in manufacturing already. What . I have a final point. Lets hear it. Who here remembers six years ago when goldman oil analyst came out with his super, super oil super 200 a barrel. 140 a barrel and going to 200 and you had to be an idiot not to see that. Yeah. Whos talking about 200 oil now . I agree with that. With commodities, any commodity, theres a supply response. Well see it again and therefore you buy distressed opportunities. All right. We have to leave it right there. Thank you very much for joining us. Tim seymour, michael levi. Stick around, tim is coming up with the fast money crew here at 5 00 and talking to apples exposure to emerging markets. Pressure on that name today, as well. Here, investors whiplashed after another volatile day and somebodys with us to spot bargains in the market despite the uncertainty with three names and hear them coming up. Collapse in oil prices is devastating russias economy and the currency. How worry should we be that russian president Vladimir Putin will lash out now that hes backed into what some say is a corner . Thats next. This is a burrito made with chocolate, soybeans, and apricots. What kind of chef comes up with this . A chef working with ibm watson, on the cloud. Ingredients are just data. Watson turns big data into new ideas. And not just for food. Watson is working with doctors and bankers to help transform their industries. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Welcome back. Awe eyes on russia as the market continues to fall. The rsx, russian etf that american investors buy here down more than 50 year to date w. This economy in crisis, some in the tlal community are wondering if russian president Vladimir Putin might use the military as a diversionary technique. Lets bring in our guests. Welcome to you both. Nina, just first to you, what kind of response personally do you think we could expect of Vladimir Putin . I think he wants to bomb somebody right now because he does blame the west. Theres been an argument that it is western sanctions that are bringing russian economy down. That oil prices have been manipulated by the United States and we heard these accusations of one of his Intelligence Community leaders. He just spoke about that. But also, lavrov the foreign minister said in front of the cameras crimea will be nuclear zone right now as part of russia and wants to bomb somebody. Sarah, there are some who will argue he has to get conservative here, he has to make appeasement with the International Community and russia doesnt have the resources for what sarahs suggesting. Well, this is really a nina is suggesting. There is not much to do. Hes brought on sanctions by the use of force in ukraine and hes absorbing crimea and costing a lot of money. So the International Communitys not feeling very fondly towards mr. Putin. Really, our hearts have to go out to the russian consume who ares just seen a huge hit to the pocketbook. Sarah, walk us through the mentality here. Youre right that the International Community is not as fond of putin as it was of yeltsin in the 1998 financial crisis and unlikely to get much support. In fact, he is getting sanctions. Whos he going to listen to . Will he listen to the public that supported him going into crimea and perhaps support him doing Something Else abroad, this lashing out notion or the alogarchs and want him to loosen up . Im guessing theres panic of putins petersburg posse, if you will. Hes brought this on himself. Hes installed series of colleagues to run government companies, those companies are now borrowing money of the central bank and the central bank in a sense stirred panic among the population. The extent hes listening to the population, controlling media to such an extent and the population has no independent voice, no outlets to be able to comment. Its he oes like in a cocoon. Hes got his cronies who now are very much in debt to him and panicked because they cant reach their money abroad and getting squeezed. And the population has no way of articulating independent views. Nina, let me ask you a question. Which is, for a lot of people what is the probability this is a the way a lot of westerners lets call it a severe round of instability in russia, ala an attempt i mean, i dont believe this is it but an attempted coup, something really bad happening and somebody tries to take putin out of power. What is what has to happen for the conditions to exist before anybody even thinks about going after putin here . Well, we already approaching those conditions. You think so . I think i think we have been approaching the conditions for two years, declaring himself president again, thats when he really created an atmosphere that of governance that should ultimately take him out. The Approval Ratings are so high. Yes. Thats why its an interesting conundrum. As sarah was saying, hes nobody the public has no response mechanism. But the public does. The public supports the endeavor. On the other hand, the public does not want to starve and the public certainly doesnt want to starve in winter so i actually think that now its such a ripe and wonderful time for that may be true but this is for you, sarah. Question. What is the opposition here . I mean, when gorbachev was replaced by yeltsin, it was clear the replacement. When people tried to take yeltsin out of power in 93, it was hard to see what happened but there was a replacement. What is the replacement for putin today . Well, this is very worrisome. Theres no clear alternative. The independent democratic voices inside of russia are extremely weak. They wouldnt have Popular Support even if the conditions for free and Fair Elections exist which they do not in russia. It is a line you hear in washington where people say, well, be careful, could be something worse. I dont think its for us to actually weigh in on that. But its very concerning that theres no clear alternative that may be a calculus that the putin posse consider. You always are concerned about the Security Services and the military if they feel that things have gone too far and what theyll do. But, i mean, he created a condition at the moment there are no Clear Alternatives to governing rush why. And, nina, from my perspective back to where you started this in terms of the timing of a potential major diversion, if you have popularity thats so high and youre worried about that decreasing because of the Economic Situation and everybodys buying into what the press is saying it seems that creates a perfect storm and opportunity to have this divergen divergence. You can have a small war here and there and fourth sbeer yurt ukraine and this is time to take putin aside, man, you are in trouble. You want to stay on or go down with the flames . Is there an opportunity for diplomacy with putd snn. Absolutely. I think there is an opportunity for diplomacy with putin because he does he can use this moment to continue on and stay in power. Oerds i think he is finished. Well leave it on that note. Thank you both this afternoon. How are Falling Oil Prices immaterial pacting Consumer Spending . Campbells soup ceo joins us next. And dont miss a very special closing bell on thursday when some of the biggest names in finance join us from the yale ceo summit. It all begins 3 00 p. M. Eastern thursday. Ur love for trading never stops, tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on. 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Tdd 18003452550 tdd 18003452550 your goto for trading knowhow. Youre down with crestor. Yes when diet and exercise arent enough, adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol up to 55 . Crestor is not for people with liver disease, or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. Tell your doctor all medicines you take. Call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired, have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine, or yellowing of skin or eyes. These could be signs of serious side effects. Im down with crestor make your move. Ask your doctor about crestor. Welcome back. We begin here with a news alert on American Apparel and courtney reagan. New developments in this ongoing saga. American apparel terminating the ceo based on an investigation that has determined it would not be appropriate for him to continue as ceo officer or employee of any kind. The company terminating all relationships with him after he had been accused of misconduct and violation of Company Policy among other things and suspended in june if you remember. Paul s Paula Schneider will take over. The saga. Thank you very much. Mm mm good for campbells soup and listed and ringing the closing bell. Lets look at the stocks longer term performance in the past years and here in an exclusive to talk soup and the state of the economy is Denise Morrison, Campbells Soup Company ceo. Welcome. Good to see you. Congratulations on 60 years. 145yearold company and 60 years on the new york stock exchange. How does campbells soup stay relevant to todays consumer . We had 20 soups and today 400 but were more than soup. You know, we have 11 power brands over 100 million and keeping up with tastes. What is the demand today of the consumer . Is it speed . Is it, you know, uniqueness of product . Talk to us a bit about some of the enno vags for 2015. I think that con sirms are very focused on health and wellbeing and taste and adventure and health and wellbeing of organic and package fresh. We made three acquisitions in the last year. One is baby food and one is a package fresh business. Carrots and premium juice and salad dressings and excited about the new things we will be doing. Should we expect campbells to grow . We have a dual mandate to strengthen and expand in Fastest Growing spaces and acquisition is one way to do that but well be smart about it and disciplined. Sure. The consumer in the middle of a debate, if you will. Theres a Research Piece of bank of america merit lynch today saying they think its time to buy main street and sell wall street. Hows main street doing, if your brands have exposure to this argument . Well, i think the consumer is definitely still under pressure and that has not translated into spending. However, with Falling Oil Prices, i believe theyll get a reprieve at the gas pump and give them more disposable income and translate it into spending more on food and apparel and other things so we think thats good. Sure. What kind of challenges are presented . Im thinking through some of the traditional ways that we access campbells soup in the walmarts and supermarkets of the world and frankly the world in terms of delivery is changing fast. Changing rapidly. Are you signing up new agreements with the newer Delivery Companies or waiting to see where the consumer goes . We have great customers but we recognize, too, that we need to be where Consumers Want to shop and we need to make our products more available to them and so were working on that. What will that look like . Well, i mean its multichannels. Convenience stores. But also, in ecommerce and echannels, traditional customers and pure plays so were, you know, were set up to deliver for the consumer. It seems today everybody and i remember Dunkin Donuts saying theyre a technology company. Everybody has to be a technology and Security Company in a sense. What kind of innovation are making . I believe, you know, there is a Seismic Shift into digital and changes the way you connect with consumers and communicate. Its not really marketing to consumers anymore. Its engaging them and so were very, very much focused on that. On mobile apps, for example . Yes. Thats what everybody is doing, an app. I dont know what the campbells soup would look like. Campbells soup kitchen. Com and recipes for consumers. What about security . Doug mcmillan said as a company anymore you cant afford to be hacked. Look at sony. What kind of security investments are making . It is important that consumer trust, we take care of count summers trust and we take security seriously at campbells. Are you concerned with hacks happening . I dont think you can be naive to the risks and we are working on making sure that information is secure. Yeah, no. I know theres a lot to think about up there in the c suite. Thank you for being with us. Thank you. Have a happy holidays. You, as well. It is eve of hanukkah here, too. We are entering the thick of the holiday season. Lets send it out to dominic chu here now. Hi, dom. Kelly, so we are watching shares of darden restaurants. The companys posting a better than expected Second Quarter result. It also raised the lower end of its fullyear guidance. The stock currently up 2. 5 . They also said for fiscal 2015 the Company Expects combined samestore sales to grow 1 to 2 for 2015. Back over to you. All right. Not all about russia but the russian stock market is in free fall. How should companies with exposure to russia like a General Electric, for example, deal with the problems there, including volatile leader like Vladimir Putin . Well talk about that next. And the s p 500 down 4 this month. But have no fear. Somebody here has the names of three stocks that welcome like cantmiss bargains, when we come back. Ge holding its annual Investor Outlook meeting today. Down double digits year to date. One of the worst performers in the dow and with investments in russia and oil and gas, a spirited meeting seems to be in the offing. Lets check back in with Mary Thompson on the scene there. Hey there, kelly. Oil prices and currency were highlighted as the problems of 2015. Still Earnings Guidance and this is the first time ge given guidance for a couple of years now, it did bracket analyst expectations profits of 1. 79 in 2015. The conglomerate expects between 1. 70 and 1. 80 despite a 5 decline in the revenues for oil and gas unit. A driver of revenue and profits for them for a few years and jeff immelt saying the range is one they can accommodate if things are worse. Heres headlines for the meeting so far. Immelt says while he continues to like oil and gas they dont need to buy anything in that area right now. The acquisition on track to close by july 1st. The firm is also on track to generate 75 of the earnings of industrials by 2016 and hit margins of 17 that same year and repeats earlier guidance and said china is fine and if the u. S. Benefits of lower gas prices it is great for ge with a 47 exposure to the u. S. And i know youre talking about russia, kelly. Generates 1 of the revenues in that country. Back to you. Thank you. For more on how exposure to rush why and energy affects u. S. Business lets bring in jeff br reynolds. Great to see you on a day like this. Jack bogle said you get International Exposure for better or worse here. How do you pick winners and losers in this environment . Well, in the short term, were in a little bit of a panics we have had every so often for five years. You know, a month ago i was on with you and oil going down and everyone thought it was great. Wonderful. We put in an alltime high in the stock market this month after the payroll number and now people think its bad because now its starting to impact the debt of these companies. But eventually, this panic will run the course in a few weeks and then the credit plume will reignite and take stock Prices Higher and as a multinational like ge, this is an opportunity. Yes, there are risks from the russia ruble unwinding but if you look at Smaller Companies hit in that space, thats providing an opportunity for them to maybe poke around and they said they dont want to do it right now. We know this is a longterm unwind of the commodity bubble. And thats really my main theme is were in a little panic, going higher and dont want to be near the commodity space for a few years. Evan whens buying into the oil space right now . Yeah. It is hard to time any of these things. I agree with the general view and i think what we need is what youre giving which is perspective here. Russia as a part of the Global Economy is really a very small piece. I mean, you talk about ge which has a lot of business there is less than 1 of their revenue base. So if the scheme of things, its less russia and more has to do with oil an i go back to something we talked about emergency roomier which is how is a Lower Oil Price bad in your view, sir, for u. S. Companies and u. S. Multinationals or european or brian . Hows this bad . Great for companies except for Energy Companies and Equity Investors is to cause the credit market to unwind and in fact they even got worse today and bounced a little bit in the stock market and the energy debt crushed. However, i dont think thats going to cause the credit boom to end and going to cause pain with credit managers and then invest more aggressively in the credit market after this panic goes on so well have a more intense credit boom after that and thats going to take stocks back to and through the highs and i think that netnet this is a great thing for american businesses. Carol . Brian, its carol roth. What about for consumer facing brands who have some exposure in russia and particularly im thinking of Companies Like mcdonalds who are already struggling otherwise. Do you think with the consumer facing brand being american, having that interaction with the russian consumer that if things continue on this route that could be particularly problematic for those types of stocks . Thats a real problem for their russian sales. But again, russia is not a really big component of most u. S. Multinationals. You are paid in rubles if youre a multinational and the question is how quickly do you convert to u. S. . Because if you go so quickly to u. S. Dollars, you may actually hasten capital controls in russia and make your own situation worse. Right. But remember. The big picture is that this is a bursting of a commodity bubble. Wall street structured 21 trillion worth of commodities so that is huge negative for commodity producers and exporters but its a Huge Positive for commodity users and commodity importers and so the shift, the challenge for multinationals is to deal with the shift and the countries to benefit of this opposed to countries to suffer from the bursting of the bubble. Seeing the first innings of them sorting that very question out. Brian, great for your perspective here as always. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. Dont miss an exclusive interview of jeff immelt. gawk on the street. Dom . Dave busters is higher after the Company Posted a smaller than expected loss than wall street was expecting. Sales also came in above certain expectations. The stock up by about 5 and said for the quarter, past one, Comparable Store sales rose and for the full fiscal year of 2014 they expect a 5. 5 , 6 growth for the full year ended in february. So well see those shares and how they react and 3,000 shares have traded so far. Back over to you. Light volume. Another restaurant beat. A 5 pop it looks like. Stocking giving back most of the big gains. Recent selling a guest says created diamonds in the rough. You will hear specific names. Stay tuned. Hi. Pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. And today, we have a very special free gift for you. So many viewers email us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. So we put our secrets into a new book. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling, well send you a copy for free. Look at the rate of return weve made on some of our recent options trades, versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. Theres no comparison. To make the best returns in todays market, you have to learn how to trade options. And our book will show you how to do it for free. Jon has been Trading Options for more than 30 years. Pete is one of the top 100 traders in the country. And our book will teach you how to trade options for free. So call now. [ male announcer ] call the number on your screen now for your free copy of jon and petes new book. Thats. see the number on your screen call now. My next guest says many stocks are awfully cheap right now and he has bargain buys willing to name. Joining us is mark hake. Good to have you back. Run through them for us. Where do you see value in the market . Yes. I like some very specific names. I like stock that is have Free Cash Flow, low pes, and preferably selling below book value. One i like right now is aiz the symb symbol. This is the Insurance Company that basically makes most of the money from selling insurance policies for your cellphone. So in that you usually pay four bucks a month and tacked on to the cellphone bill and very profitable business for them. And in fact, just as an anecdote, i found a way you can, you know, you can get your deductible reimbursed, too. Usually have to pay like 100 bucks just to get your cellphone, you know, if you crack the lens or Something Like that. Do you own, mark, aiz and well talk about others. Do you have positions in these companies . Yeah. I like them. Yes, i have positions in them. And im short the puts and long the out of the money calls or short the out of the money calls. Tell us about lifelock. Lifelock is very interestinging stock based here in arizona, actually. The reason why i like that, they sell policies where not really policies but basically assured guarantee situations for your credit cards and that kind of a thing. And the reason why i like the stock is it has lots of cash on the balance sheet, very cash flow positive. And very low pe. Mark, its carol roth. I want to ask you because it seems that the high Free Cash Flow low debt is a key thesis. In these particular companies, how much of it do you think is the fundamentals of the company that is youre banking on, how much of it is the Financial Flexibility and their strong Balance Sheets and anticipating the return of capitals of shareholders or buying back the stock in a Financial Engineering . Your question is how much . Well, you know, youre always looking for low pe stocks. All right . You screen for that. And then preferably you want to find lots of cash on the balance sheet. And lots of Free Cash Flow. Thats a very good formula. I call it the three cs. Cash, cash flow and catalyst. Is your thesis more around the fact that these are really Strong Companies that you expect to do well and pes are low or around the fact haf flexibility to return capital to shareholders or to buy back stock . Yeah. If you have cash on the balance sheet, you can return it. Cash is a catalyst in a sense if you have lots of cash. And if you have Free Cash Flow, which means that after all expenses of a company, capital expenditures, that cash balance continues to increase. And thats what i see at lifelock and assurance, inc. And others that i like. Mark, i its evan newmark. You believe in individual stock picking, dont you . Yeah. Right. Do you think have these share prices traded independently of the rest of the market over the last year . Any of these shares really outperformed or underperformed . Well, what you want to do is look for the opportunity to buy them cheap and over the long run, yes, they will perform according to their basic return on equity. No, no. But i said over the last year have any of these stocks really either underperformed or outperformed their Broader Market if theyre small caps, for example . What does it matter . What you are looking for right now is an opportunity right now. This stock right now is lifelock both selling below in one case below book value and the other case selling below the market value typical of median pe ratio. Yeah. I consider that an opportunity. John . Mark, we have been talking about russia a lot during this program. Youre looking at stocks all day long and screens all day long. Were talking about russia. Contagion effect in emerging markets. Does any of that have anything to do with the skigss you make about the stocks you pick . Well, i try to look for extremes in that kind of a situation, extremes where maybe a stock is selling so far below book value even with a lot of debt and a lot of investor concern its probably worth looking at. Situation im looking at really closely right now is transocean. Rig, rig. Selling for 16. The company wont go out of business and oils going to return to, you know, a normal value some point and make money again. So i think thats really, really worth looking at. Now, theyll probably cut their dividend so that means the stocks going to take another dip. Maybe. Although it might be in the price. I think there might be some Short Covering going on there but those are the kind of things i look for, you know, where theres a lot of fear in that kind of a stock price. Right, right. Mark, thank you. Mark hake here with several stock picks and thinking about rig here, as well. Lower oil prices are celebrated in parts of the usa. Abroad, not so much. Opec countries, libya, iran, nigeri nigeria, part of the oildependent economies where things could be ugly politically and economically thats popular on cnbc. Com. A special programming note, closing bell at the yale ceo summit on thursday. Some guests of blackstone group, bob diamond and bob diamond ande founder of associates. All of thats coming up on thursday. Well be right back after this. And not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over 30 of the webs leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. You put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. Makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter. Com offer2. Welcome back. We have a news alert on sony. The developing story now with julia. Hi, kelly. Department of Homeland Security officials tell cnbc that they are aware of the threat made online targeting movie theaters in the United States. They tell us they are still analyzing the credibility of these statements, but at this time, theres no credible intelligence to indicate an active plot against movie theaters. The official also says they encourage the public to, if you see something, say something, and to report any suspicious activity in your communities to the appropriate Law Enforcement authorities. Back to you. Some disturbing comments there today. Oil and russia were big stories as well, but it was the late market selloff thats topping todays hot list. Well get that and the rest of it all with cnbc managing editor. That last hour, the selloff, the crowd that came crashing into our website to find out whats going on, it was phenomenal. And still burning up the charts for me right now. People just anxious to know whats going on in the market. A lot of those folks, Retail Investors, so we also set a story up on which mutual funds have been getting it really tough in the whole russia situation. The emerging markets fund, they seem to be the real losers in all of this. People loving that story too because it affects them. The wiseman effect. People going to art cashmans comments. People saying, wow, is this 1998 all over again . Art says no, were not as leveraged and you dont have that domino connection. All that back in 98. Anyway, huge traffic on the website today. I enjoyed hearing that from him earlier. And then jack vogels comments. Good to see you for now. Thank you, sir. Think today was a wild day for stocks . Wait until tomorrow when the fed meets. Thats right. The twoday meeting ends tomorrow. Well hear the statement. Were going to talk about it next. Welcome back. Time for some final thoughts with our panel. John, kick things off for us. Well, what does russia do now . Does it devote capital controls . Does it burn through the 360 billion that it has in Foreign Exchange reserves . Just one thought, represents still just 4 of s p 500 chief executives are women. We had Denise Morrison of Campbell Soup on. Remarkably low number. Its up. But up from about as low a base as you could possibly imagine. And better watch out for kelly evans. You heard me. And to another woman, im obviously focused on the feds tomorrow. Obviously everybodys wondering if the criminal time language will be in there. I almost dont think it matters. I think that from the feds perspective, theyd rather be too late to the game in terms of raising rates than too early. So it will be very interesting just from an intellectual exercise to see what that language is, but from a reality standpoint, i dont know that it matters. That is exactly the problem. The fed has got to get out of the zero Interest Rate policy. Just so you think that they should . So they can rescue me from my short treasury position . That is not why. Really whats gotten a lot of the volatility in the market right now is because the money doesnt know where to go. You heard reynolds, going from a real estate mogul to a commodity the money does not know where to go. And when Interest Rates are as low as they are right now, things have become a oneway train. Everybody buys Treasury Bonds now. And when you get the treasury down the 30 years at 2. 7, how you unwind that, it will not be pretty. It could be two years from now, kelly. It could be two years from now. It could be six years from now. Agreed. Youve got to fix this, kelly. Well try. Thank you for being here this afternoon. Great to see all of you. Fast money is coming up in just a few moments. Melissa lee, what are you guys trying to fix today . Where do i begin with the fixing. Were going to talk ruble and oil ripple effects on banks and on apple. Well give you the low down as well as the trades. There were some big moves today. Tesla, amazon declining as well. A lot of stuff going on below the surface. It wasnt just russia and oil, thats for sure. Were definitely going to show you an interesting chart in particular on tesla, which closes 50 something cents off its lows. One chart you need to look at. Straight over to you guys. Thanks, kelly. Fast money starts right now. Im melissa lee. Tim, dan, steve, and guy. A wild day for stocks today. And the volatility may not be over. The s p, dow, and nasdaq all closing in the red. The vix closing up more than 15 . Oil actually closing higher today. Breaking a